>tfw Moore's Law is over and it's never coming back

It's gonna be slow-rolling until we go quantum.

I'd say its been over for a few years now... Unless they come up with some new revolutionary tech (nanophotonic, graphene, whatever), any new improvements are going to remain minor and unexciting.

File: michigan j pepe.png (7KB, 614x620px) Image search: [Google]

7KB, 614x620px

>>58211761
>>58211750

but it's not over
maybe it is for consumer electronics but it's not over for computers in general

moore's law is over on silicon, we can go deeper.

>>58211718
If it's over, then why cal it a law? Laws are eternal. Moore's law is prediction, one which I never took seriously.

>>58212180
are you clinically austistic?

>>58211718
Are you miss looking your newly purchased hi-end tech becoming deprecated garbage at the speed of light?

one of the best cop shows of the '70s.
so sad.

>>58211750
Quantum is a meme

>>58211718

Not really informed on the matter, why is it ending exactly?
Physical limitations?

>>58212433
Dumb frog poster indeed.

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458KB, 1000x3000px

>>58211718
worst singularity ever

>>58212552
Moores law has worked by building better ways to get transistors to work closer and closer together.
The problem we're facing now is that when we go any smaller, it's impossible to tell where an electron IS, because Quantum Mechanics. Thus, we'll have transistors firing when they shouldn't.

We've basically reached the limit of silicon transistors, and all we can do now is use neat tricks to work around it.

Have a laugh mates:
http://www.kitguru.net/components/cpu/jules/intel-to-launch-pelican-lake-shrink-on-7nm-in-2016/

>Technologically, Pelican Lake is streets ahead of Sandy Bridge, with levels of parallelism that present designs can only dream of. Intel’s engineers will also need to have solved some serious leakage issues – and consider running large areas of the chip asynchronously, because it’s almost too complicated to try and maintain a single clock for the whole processor.

>Right now, in 2011, we’re all marvelling at how much power we can achieve from a Core i7 2600k processor, costing just over £200, and clocking to 4.8Ghz on air. For moves like Intel’s 7nm process change, the present quad core 2600k processors will be made to look like today’s Atoms. We’re moving that fast every 5 years.

>>58212647
>it's impossible to tell where an electron IS, because Quantum Mechanics. Thus, we'll have transistors firing when they shouldn't.

murphys law anything that can go wrong, will go wrong and right

>>58211718
don't worry bruh, once we've eaked out every bit of performance improvement we can from silicon, we'll move on to graphene

>>58212540
It's not a meme, it's just not really for general computing like silicon.

Apparently Intel thinks fpgas are the next step .
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/601441/moores-law-is-dead-now-what/

Thank god, that means people will start to value efficient software again, and shitty programmers will be fired in droves

>>58212740
I can't wait to enjoy the quality threads such as:
>he fell for the graphene meme

>who here silicon?

>Why haven't you joined the future?

>lincucks still doesn't support graphene

>he doesn't use a real computer like the Mac Carbon

>You can only post in this thread if you have a quantum phone

>buy a GPU made out of literal charcoal
>surprised by housefire
Nvidiots everyone

>At Alphabet, we support all carbon based lifeforms.
Where were you when pajeets lost their jobs to beepboops?

My waifubot just got a job at Google. She says that she is one who is going to be wearing the pants around here from now on. I'm scared because I've torn her molded silicone anus nine times in the past. What do?

>burn the coal
>pay the toll
Should've bought AMD

>>58212180
There are two laws.

three

dimensional

circuits

>>58213777
Silicon is already 3d you idiot

>tfw 7nm silicon production is still slow as shit
>there is no known way to make a stable extreme UV lithography fast
>it will likely never happen
>marketing is already selling it
Literally an entire industry being tricked by a meme

Microelectronic engineer here.

Yeah it's over. What do you want us to do? We've run out of layers of atoms.

>>58211750
MOSFETs already are quantum devices. Every solid state computer operates on quantum mechanics.

>>58211750
>I have no idea what current gen silicon chips make use of
Quantum properties are already widely used on silicon

>>58212138
How? The issue isn't that we can't physically produce anything smaller, its that we are close to the point where a physically smaller transistor just wont work.

Can't they like, find a way to make a transistor out of subatomic particles? Then Moore's Law will be back and better than ever.

>>58214100
>what are quantum properties
>how does quantum tunneling work

>>58214100
>make a transistor out of subatomic particles?
That's basically what Quantum Computers are trying to be. But it's in its early stages, and no one knows when/if it'll be ready for commercial use.

>>58214121
No you fucking memelord
Quantum properties are already widely employed in silicon chips
Quantum state memory is something we don't fully understand yet but that is wholly unrelated to moores law

>>58212567
Post the other image with the really accurate mspaint drawing.

guess they'll have to call it less law now

>>58212460
a quinn-martin production

So this is probably a dumb question but why not just make the CPUs physically bigger to increase performance?

>>58215317
Heat
Signal strength
Pipeline

Physical limits of lithography machinery

>>58215317
bigger die = higher chance of failure = lower yields

Technically they could even manufacture 10x10cm dies but bear in mind that only one of the many transistors not functioning currectly is enough to render the whole unit unusable.

>>58215317
Limits of the production machinery is a real thing
The biggest die I know of is a Nvidia chip
It requires production as 2 separate dies next to each other on the same wafer which causes huge problems and very high failure rate

Quantum computers won't be used in the home for decades. Even then there's no reason to think they'll be faster than classical computers at everything. They can do certain kinds of problems better, they aren't magical devices and they would do most tasks at the same speed or slower than a classical computer.

>>58215371
>>58215409
>>58215481
thanks senpaitachi

So I guess multi CPUs are the only way to go

It's not dead, it only keeps on changing.

https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/232342-moores-law-scaling-dead-by-2021-to-be-replaced-by-3d-integration

You can't fundamentally misunderstand Moore's Law and the singularity then be upset that the rule of accelerating returns seems to be slowing. Ray Kurzweil:

"The law of accelerating returns does not pertain to feature size or clock speed but to calculations per second per constant dollar.

Three dimensional computing will keep that exponential trend going for many more decades. I’ve long said that the paradigm represented by Moore’s law (shrinking transistor sizes on a flat integrated circuit) will come to an end in the early 2020s."

>>58213879
Next tech bubble?

>>58215835
Perhaps
Not likely though
Just postpone the meme

>>58215671
>>58215573
/thread

>>58211750
Quantum doesn't matter too much for regular computing.
Where it will shine is finding the energy eigenstates of atoms with repelling electrons without numeric calculation (brute force). This could lead to yuge advancements in Chemistry.

>>58212180
>Laws are eternal
You must be really religious