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Was I just lucky?

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Thread replies: 46
Thread images: 5

File: lucky.png (19KB, 550x449px) Image search: [iqdb] [SauceNao] [Google]
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Hi /biz/

I have always been sceptical of the stock market from reading stuff about traders in books like Thinking Fast and Slow and The Drunkard's Walk. I put it down to luck or insider trading and just stuck to my Vanguard tracker funds.

Anyway, they haven't done much this year and after the VW diesel emissions scandal I saw an opportunity for something a bit riskier. I sold half my tracker funds and put it into VOW3 shares and have made 12% in a week. My reasoning was this:
- While the fine was big I didn't see it knocking 40%+ off the value of the business, which is what the share price reflected
- The preference shares were a LOT less than the non preference shares
- I think VW make really nice cars. A couple of guys I work with bought Golf GTIs on finance when we started and I really mire them

I'm not saying I did fundamental analysis or anything but it seemed like a good opportunity but I don't want to trick myself into thinking it was skill when it wasn't. It's all a fugazi afterall.

Also when should I sell?
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>>970449
Hold for 6-10 years
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>>970449
You made an educated guess about how the market works and it paid off, so well done. It doesn't happen all the time. Get out when you're happy with the gain or set a stop loss. Reset the stop loss in the morning with an expiration of market close. That's about it basically.
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lol this humblebrag.

You literally gambled based on your emotions. Could have easily gone the other way.
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>>970449
>- While the fine was big I didn't see it knocking 40%+ off the value of the business, which is what the share price reflected
The price dropped 40% due to the expectation of the large decline in future sales and litigation costs, not just the fine. Whether the costs match up with the share price won't be known for years.

>- I think VW make really nice cars. A couple of guys I work with bought Golf GTIs on finance when we started and I really mire them
Wow. Literally the worst reason to buy a stock. You "mire" their product? Jesus. Dump your money into Red Bull and Doritos too next time.

You got lucky. You flipped a coin and guessed correctly. 50% of people do it. You might even do it again, once or twice. But you'll lose more. Someone with your mentality (dumping index funds due to short term returns ... kek) isn't going to make it.
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>>970540
Really was trying not to make it sound like a humble brag. I'm perfectly willing to accept it's luck which is nothing to brag about.

>>970608
Read One Up on Wall Street
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>>970792
>Read One Up on Wall Street
Pass. Meme strategies are for meme investors.

You obviously should have never been in an index fund in the first place. You just don't have the temperament or wisdom. Hopefully both will come with age and experience.

Or not. The world needs poorfags too.
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>>970872
>hey look mom, he's being am asshole again
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>>970872
Go on then, share some wisdom. How do you decide what to invest in?

It's why I created the thread.
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>Was I just lucky?

Are Jews evil?
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>>970904
Look faggot, I gave you several reasons why your stock pick was lucky, your reasoning flawed, and your strategy suboptimal ... and your response was "go read this book." So why the fuck would I waste any more of my time educating a dumbfuck like you?

You created the thread because you wanted someone to tell you that you made a smart decision. If you want validation for your shitty stock-picking strategy, then stick to the retards in the day-trading thread. They all think they can outpick and outtime the market. You'll fit right in.
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>>970967
cor you got upset quickly
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>>970967
How much did you lose?
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Buy and hold, and don't bother trying to game the market.

You aren't a day trader, you wouldn't be starting a thread on /biz/ if you were. Make something more of your life than trying to get rich quick. Assuming you are in your 20's, you shouldn't even be thinking about touching your index funds for decades.
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>>972691
>Assuming you are in your 20's
See, that's the problem.
Telling people in their 20's they shouldn't try to get rich quick is futile.
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>>970967
you forgot this m8
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>>972711
>>971318
>>970974
He has a point though. OP was looking for "ur a genius harry" when really he's just a gambler.

Not that there's anything wrong with that. I was down more than 20% and 2 months later I'm up 5% for this year
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>>972826
>He has a point though
Sure, but it's somewhat obscured by his pissed off attitude towards day traders. Of course they think they can "out pick and out time the market", that's what day trading is about.
While most of them lose money, calling them all "retards" is the mark of someone who has lost shitloads themselves.
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>>972962
>follow a trading strategy that is 90% likely to lose money
>not be retarded
Choose one.
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>>973000
>90% likely to lose money
>100-90 = 10% (don't lose money)
>call all of them retards anyway

great logic
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>>973010
Since you don't know if you're going to be in the 10% before you start trading, then yes everyone who uses the strategy is retarded. Especially when other strategies exist with substantially higher success rates and better returns.

Get some common sense, kid.
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>>973021
Your logic fails, "kid".

By this definition, any one who pursues a profession where 90% don't make it is, according to you, a retard.
This would include actors, pro athletes, astronauts, politicians, just about anyone in a competitive field.

I could go on, but as I said, your logic sucks.
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>>970449
Not everyone is a statistic. While many are autistic, I applaud OP in his pick. I see alot of shit stock picking on this board. Retards trying to trade oil futures ETFs, penny stocks, etc. If I account for those blind speculations, I can see why statistics say most people can't pick individual stocks.

Do you really think buying index funds at any price is wise? Ya you'll do no worse than the market, but who's to say the market is adequate. Perhaps taking a risk is worthwhile at certain times. Many companies have been using low interest rates to refinance debt and pay it out as buybacks and dividends. It was fun for a while but the party must end (read: 2008 housing market)

In the case of VW, alot of the negative news was likely priced in. Sure there could be more and OP could be down for years. It was a scandal but not an overall problem with the business, i.e. making unprofitable cars etc. The stock was down 40%. I viewed it as well as the stock having more upside than downside at this point though I didn't invest as I had other speculations (as well as index funds).

i.e. OP took the risk of buying low, and retards in this thread are too butt hurt to acknowledge that it wasn't that bad of a bet. One can do fundamental analysis but time and time again shows that's no sure thing, and even then, who's to say one can even interpret it well enough (ignoring the fact that fundamental analysis is backwards looking)
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>>973033
To add, regarding the time spent working on fundamental analysis theoretically makes investing not worth it unless a significant amount of capital was risked.
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I did the same. I did a similar thing a few years ago with Barclays and the LIBOR scandal. Also worked great.
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>>973033
>you'll do no worse than the market, but who's to say the market is adequate
Very true.
Something people ignore is that these messages are tailored to the lowest common denominator, like speed limits.
Can you imagine the hordes of broke idiots there would be running around if the message was "trade stocks with your retirement money to get a better return"?
It's not that it isn't possible, just way too dangerous to promote that line of thought.
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>>972962

>While most of them lose money, calling them all "retards" is the mark of someone who has lost shitloads themselves.

While most pissdrunk drivers get in accidents, calling them all "retards" is the mark of someone who had an accident while pissdrunk themselves.
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>>973069
>most pissdrunk drivers get in accidents
no pissdrunk drivers reap millions (or any reward) for their "retardation"

analogy fail
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>>973074

The social standing of being a good pissdrunk driver is a reward.
Gotta adopt the mindset of those people.
Analogy win, Mr. Reddit memes.
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>>973077
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It's up over $120. OP confirmed genious, everyone else btfo.
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Stockprice rose to over 125€ today.
also bought for ~95€ (German like OP, I suppose), now wondering if I should already sell and take my ~700€ gains or wait for 1-2 years and till 160-200€ Stockprice hopefully comes back.
Actually already overweighted in automotive (got many Daimler since empoyed there).
Mainly own dividend aristocrats (~80% of portfolio)
Anyone got good advice?
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>>973505

Sell. That money could be put to better use somewhere else with a higher chance of success.
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>>973033
What are your other speculations? How do you decide which stocks to buy? Do your speculations beat the market? What do you think the 10% of successful traders do?

I'm kind of tempted to pick more of my own stocks in future as I'm at an age where I can afford to take a few risks but I know the odds are against me.

Pic related is a similar situation from last year. Tesco had this accounting scandal (can't remember the exact details - it was about Sept 2014) and the share price dropped by about 40% as well. I didn't look in to it but someone mentioned how it was a good time to buy and they were right (in the short term).

>>973505
Congrats man what made you buy? I had a similar price in mind for the same time frame. I'm tempted to take the money as well but for now I'm going to go with the saying 'let your winners run' and set a trailing stop loss.
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>>973516
Like what?
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>>970540
This. You threw some money into a volatile stock and it worked out for you. There could have just as easily been some news about how the scandal went deeper than initially reported and the stock could have tanked further. Event-driven investing is a real strategy though, and you can get more sophisticated with it by using option strategies.
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>>970449

I think it's a good bet. Germans work fucking hard, and come back well from disaster. This alone gives me confidence. Plus people fuckin love VW cars, scandal or no.

I would say to hold for 5 years and you could double your money.
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>>973523
That was a "Turtle" breakout. Break of rolling 20 day high was the signal.
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>>973523
I went in on chipotle due to e.coli scandal. I also made money a few months ago on oil stocks. I figured if I didn't buy at the bottom, I could hang on to them as the oil majors are unlikely to go out of business while still issuing a dividend.

Again, it's not foolproof. I bought twitter at 38 after a drop from the 50's. Now it's in the mid 20's. I bought more at 26. I'm confident of a turn around, but on paper I have a loss. The key is to have time and the capital to hang to eventually be right. It just sucks with twitter and chipotle that they don't have a dividend to make hanging worthwhile.

I'm long kinder morgan as well. I don't see a turn around for years but that fat dividend is nice. Even if they cut it in half, 4% feels good man, all while DRIPing in at lower prices.

I pussied out on VW, don't know why.

I'm not a headline investor, I just look for decent companies whose price got crushed and preferably has a dividend. The too key is to actually sell. You might make a quick 15% even though the price is down 60% - that's good enough. 15% in say 3-6 months crushes the market average.

>inb4 investing on emotions
>investing only in index funds at any price based on past data even though everyone knows past performance is not an indicator of future returns.
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>>973074

>Millions

Funny how all traders go dead quiet as soon as broker statements are requested.
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>>974258
Ah, you're arguing that no traders make millions?
I never claimed I have.
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>>970967
>he's butthurt that he's missed every meme stock train to the moon
>takes out his buttfrustration on OP

Mellow out and dump all your bitcoins into NBG brah
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good job OP


pull out now and put it in your retirement before you gamble away your future
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it's always easiest to swoop in after a big drop in an individual stock, because the selling is pure panic past a certain point, and it'll rebound at least a bit
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>>972700
I'm 23 years of age. I save 70 % of my wage in index funds monthly and don't even look at the account. I live well on the 30 % I keep. When I'm 40 I might actually take a look at the funds themselves.

I do keep a small sum on a separate bank for trading but that's only because I think it's fun. It's like playing poker or something 2bh. I'm up, but that's pretty much pure luck.
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>>976381
>I save 70 % of my wage
You're an outlier in these threads, then.
The vast majority of your peers aren't saving shit, and are counting on the National Bank of Greece to make all their Christmas dreams come true.
Thread posts: 46
Thread images: 5


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