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Oil

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What will have to happen for oil to go back up? Opec just needs to cut production?

I have a couple stocks in pipeline and refining which have been hurting but nothing like oil and has companies have been. My losses have almost been covered by dividends from the stocks over the last year anyway.

Thoughts on buying back into oil now or is it too soon?
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Too soon!
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>>965895
This OP

So much oil has already been taken from the ground, so of course it needs to be refined and piped places, but I'd hold off on buying into BPn exon or Suncor
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Uhm, please explain the use for oil with the proliferation of electric cars.
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>>965903
Plastic, jet fuel, ocean freighters, diesel trains, generating electricity in developing countries etc. Also not everybody can afford a $100,000 tesla
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>>965908
>plastic
carcinogens which will be withdrawn from population over coming decade
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>>965926
>using a device which has plastic in it
Seriously you're retarded, kill yourself. I bet you're the retard who thought oil was on its way out when the price was high.
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>>965926
Most fuel consumption is from commercial airliners and cargo ships not automobiles, so the mass consumption of oil isn't going anywhere any time soon
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>>965889
Saudi Arabia said they'd keep their prices low as fuck for 5 years, that's what did this. It's not some economic trend, it's one major supplier saying "Let's fuck the prices so our competitors die".

They're also going to keep it going for more than 5 years, obviously, they only said 5 so their opponent's would budget around it.
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>>965960
Okay but what about wars and shit in the middle east? That has to affect it sme what
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>>966017
Those have been going on since the 1980s, and going strong since 2003. The current drop is 100% because of saudi arabia, it's not a secret in any way whatsoever.

The leaders of Saudi Arabian oil (privatized, can't buy stock) said "we have trillions of dollars in reserve, so we're selling oil at $50/barrel isntead of $125/barrel like everyone else for the next 5 years". This lead everyone to buy from them, which lead to the competition having to lower their prices to absurdly low levels to compete and they'll have to keep it there until Saudi Arabia stops or gets blown the fuck up.

This is not a market trend in any way, it's a single publicized power play by a major player in the industry. If you can buy stock in an oil company that will survive the crisis of artificially low prices it WILL go up absurdly when it's over in a few years, the problem is finding which companies can survive this.
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>>966136
Saudi Arabia doesn't have as much oil as you think. It does have some of the cheapest to produce oil but the actual production amount it can do per year is no where bear enough to control the world market.
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>>966143
This
USA and Russia have biggest reverses I think
Canada has s Fuck ton that's barely been tapped because muh global warming

Saudi just has light sweet crude which as anon said is cheap and easy to extract
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>>965889
as far as i know Saudi went for drama queen killing Iran with oversupplying the market and US backed this cause it also hurts Russia. Thats for the geopolitics.

Also OPEC = Saudi. I would go for distribution not the drilling itself.
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>>966216
Iran was already banned from exporting oil tho isn't it?
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KSA sells oil in Europe for $35,
Irak at 30$,
Russia at 34-36$ (Urals),
US is ready to allow oil export.
Iran will have a mass oil export since summer.
So Brent will fall.
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>>966255
Good point
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>>966150
That sounds a bit dubious, but I can see where you're coming from. Canada does have large reserves, but they're locked in oil sands. The only reason it was making money was because the price of oil was 100+ for how many long years. Similar situation in the U.S, where in theory they have something like few hundred billion barrels in reservoir, but mostly locked in oil shales, and can only access percentages of it in the single digits because largely of the technology for extraction, and the cost of extraction. Interestingly enough some states that we're know for largely agricultural stuff are recently becoming oil exporting states, and some airports are making more money leasing land for shale extraction than actual flights.

It's definitely because of the Saudis, as we are already seeing small U.S shale extraction company either downsizing, shutting down, or merging.

It's the classic story of two men; 1 men has 10 dollars, and the other one has 50 billion dollars. Now, if you force the man with the 50 billion dollars to give the man with the 10 another 5 dollars, the 50 billion dollar man will be sad, even while he does coke while riding his harem of Russian wives on top of his yacht, and that sadness will resonate throughout the economy.
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>>966229
Sanctions are no longer in place. Saudi did that to make even more pressure on Iran.

I would say Iran as for oil is kinda fucked financial speaking but is Saudi. Its easy to drill in Saudi, Iran etc. Its much harder to drill in arctic. Its cheaper to open new well in Texas than Saudi. I dont really expect oil to go rockets in near future.
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Even if OPEC stopped drilling today, Iran, Iraq, and Russia would pick up. Oil will not go back to 100$ levels.
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>>965908
> plastic
Can be made from wood nowadays
> ocean freighters
LNG
> diesel trains
Moving to electric just like cars

Planes are still legit tho.
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>>965889
>What will have to happen for oil to go back up?
War would do the trick.
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If anything, the Saudis are going to decrease the prices even more to pay for their increasing budget deficits and debt.

Just hope that the Saudi government doesn't collapse, the IMF has predicted that they will go bankrupt by 2020. If it does, and Wahhabi anti-western sentiment is no longer checked, we are going to have major, major problems in the Middle East.
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>>966269
>It's the classic story of two men; 1 men has 10 dollars, and the other one has 50 billion dollars. Now, if you force the man with the 50 billion dollars to give the man with the 10 another 5 dollars, the 50 billion dollar man will be sad, even while he does coke while riding his harem of Russian wives on top of his yacht, and that sadness will resonate throughout the economy
Truly a classic
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>>966324
>> ocean freighters
>LNG
That technology is a decade away at least
>>
when the chinese crash data was coming out, it was priced in that many (smaller) energy companies were going to fail. now, something else has been priced in on the oens who aren't going to fail, while the companies that will fail are now starting their descent.
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>>966386
>We lose our allies in the area except Israel
>Without Saudi Arabia to worry about, Russia no longer gives a shit about Iran
>Without Russia giving a shit about Iran, we don't give much of a shit for replacing Saudi Arabia
>Israel grows in power and attempts to police the region
>Muslim groups all rally against Israel
>Things looking darker than the NBA
>Suddenly, in a glorious beacon of hope, China nukes the entire subcontinent into glass
>Free real estate
>Chinese market booms
>Hydroponics market skyrockets
>/biz/ wins again


>Bonus: Li Sheng bought 200 acres of middle eastern glassland.
>>
>>965889
The amount of bad information, bad reasoning, or memes in this thread makes me know I'm on /biz/.

Moot always said he wouldn't make this board so that NEETs wouldn't lose all their money.

I guess he stopped caring though. Considering he's gone.

Some examples of absolute retards
>>966386
>Increase production to send the oil price down to pay for a budget deficit.
>>966404
>literally making shit up
>Chinese crash data?
>oil was at $42 in February before anything even happened in China
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>>966415
Continued:

>>966321
>Even if 70% of world crude oil production stopped the oil price wouldn't go up to it's price in July 2014

>>966255
>A, B, and C sell for less than D
>must mean that D is too high

>>966216
>the US and Saudi Arabia are working together
>completely ignores the Iran deal the Saudis hate
>doesn't realize the reason oil dropped was because of US fracking, OPEC Nov 2014, and a world economy growing slower than expected

>>966136
>getting cause and effect mixed up
>cause = US/Canada oil growth, effect = OPEC fighting for market share
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>>966425
Continued:
>>965903
>Meme cars don't need oil indirectly

>>965895
Probably the only thing in this thread that isn't retarded.
Still, no one really knows where the market is going. Futures in January were for $50 oil. It hit $67 in May.
Futures right now are for $52 December 2016. But who knows?

The truth is that oil doesn't respond to supply and demand very well. It responds to war, OPEC, and politics.

My bet is $35 Q1 2016, $50 Q2 2016, $45 Q3, and $55 Q4 2016.
So wait, and then buy after oil drops a significant amount (from say 40 to 35.)
The oil market is a volatile day traders game, and a long term traders game. Monthly strategies get you burnt in this market.
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The long term trend of oil is up.

The long term supply of oil is down.

The price is touching mean.

The price is going to go up.
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>>966434
Wut?
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>>966434
>The long term trend of oil is up.
>The long term supply of oil is down.
The trend won't be up if it is rendered obsolete
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Watch caterpillar ... 35 month slump. World wide demand is down. Maybe a good play in 2 years.
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>oil range trades near the current lows for the next 7 years
>on the eighth year, the market realizes that electric vehicles and solar will replace fossil fuels
>oil and its related companies crash spectacularly
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>>966429
>The truth is that oil doesn't respond to supply and demand very well.

I agree with pretty much everything you wrote except that.

I can't believe people are blaming the Saudi's for the decline in price when it's obvious that the US and Canada were where the increase in supply came from. All the Saudi's did was say they weren't going to cut their existing output. Which makes perfect sense because US shale and Canadian sands were the high cost producers.
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Every commodity is mcfucked right now, all economic growth since 2008 has been meme growth fueled by central bank meme debt and it's no longer viable
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>>966689
You retards realize that major oil companies bought most of the patents for solar/electric, right? They're fully aware of the eventual change and have R&D ready to delve in; the same major companies will always control energy, they're sector companies not commodity companies.
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consider for a moment that ISIS has control of syrian oil production facilities. the new estimate of revenue from oil is $500M per year in their coffers. at current prices. because they didn't pay shit to set everything up. they killed and appropriated assets with no financial investment. imagine an oil producer with only production costs and no financial burden from debt.

that OPEC wants to kill off new producers and iran is nothing new. but what about another reason: economic warfare against ISIS.

what if OPEC, in particular the saudis, is deliberately breaking the gears of the ISIS financing machine by keeping prices low. ISIS is reaping that $500M at current prices. what if oil was back up to 70/80/90/100 per barrel?

so the other world powers are engaged in a physical war and the arab world is engaged in an economic war with ISIS.

that's my pet theory. if ISIS is defeated, the price of oil will be allowed to go back up.
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>>966800
>saudis aren't pro-isis
wew lad
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>>966736
A couple small ones bought some rights but most invested in natural gas. PECO did the right thing and has a plan where they will sell you overpriced solar panels and install them for you if you let them have the extra for their grid free of charge. We went on vacation last month and had a $250 surplus check. if we did the peco thing they could just keep the money.
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>>966800
>if you shoot ducks
>then mushrooms will sleep
love your logic kid.
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we're walking towards the valley of shit and poverty
sell your stocks
keep cash $$$
your signal would be when oil prices plummet to 30$ by 2016-17
then the 4 bubbles will blow (rock oil companies,the stock exchange bubble.real estate bubble,bonds bubble)
when we are in the valley of shit and poverty, buy gold with all your money, it'll be cheap as fuck
by 2019-2020 the world will start to rise again
will reach the highest in 2023, which is your time to sell your gold at much higher value and get out of the crisis unaffected, in fact on the winning side
this is my personal expectation and you should take it on your own responsibility
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>>967548
Gold is a meme. If you faggots really want to make money, invest $80 index funds and 20% handpicked software companies dealing with automation.
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>>967548
What are you doing with your cash in the meantime? Savings accounts? Stuffing your mattress with cash?
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>>967584
80%**
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>>966800
Why are the uninformed trying to inform us
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>>965903
Food, medicine, cosmetics, clothes, computers, cars, houses, transportation, paint, plastics, batteries, etc.
Oil is an integral part of modern civilization. It permeates every aspect of your life as well as everyone else's in an industrialized society.
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>>965889
oil wont "come back" but the dollar will get dropped hard. buy oil while the dollar is high vs the gbp, peso, aud.
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>>965935
is this bait?

>>966321
>Oil will not go back to 100$ levels.
temporarily it could if individuals and organizations panic for backup inventory
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>>966712
>Every commodity is mcfucked right now, all economic growth since 2008 has been meme growth fueled by central bank meme debt and it's no longer viable
dweebs got boxed out of market share? doesn't mean it's mcfucked, it just means you have to make profits by being right instead of by jumping the bandwagon like a moron. gotta make good picks to make money, that takes a good eye and discretion.
commodities are in good shape because demand is still more lubed up than it's ever been.
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>>967586
Obviously he is going to bury it. Duh.
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