How do you tell when theres an economic downturn?

bump :(

Buy quality companies near 52 week lows. Ta da: you have timed the market

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>>959751
>but purchasing shares when theyre at a discount is optimal
markets are efficient, you're not getting the same value for a better price because the underlying companies have worse prospects and might not do well in the short-medium term.

For example look at the Euro STOXX 50, it's just barely 50% above it's peak value now.

on a side note, can someone explain to me why medical care is so profitable? In nz it seems to be booming, specifically fisher and paykal healthcare. is it really lucrative? I dont really see the downside of it

>>959751
...why the Beatrice?

Fuck... I really need to find the time to finish Umineko, I've been too focuses on being productive, I'm only even fucking on /biz/ for advice.

>>959751

>downturn
Follow the days of distribution
>purchase at a discount
To an extent. You can wait until momentum shifts back up also

>>959751
Waiting for the downturn can cause loss of gains. I agree though, you can somewhat time downturns.

>>959751
well considering we haven't even reached back to where our GDP should be after the 07-09 debacle, you can rest assured that we will be good for some time. As for your question, national employment will fall, retail sales etc . In economics terms its when Aggregate Demand begins to fall starting off a chain of events, triggering a recession.

>>959751
I mean, markets boom and bust all the time - as >>960160 says, it's a variety of events in a chain reaction that causes a real economic recession.

In the long term someone with a stable job should view the downturns as irrelevant. If you dont need the cash for a number of years you can buy when its bad and sell when its good, easy (ish) money. As long as you arent buying a shitty company such a strategy would be fine but most people lack the patience or panic when they buy and it continues to fall. Invest with confidence and know who or what you are investing in.

>>959849
Because shes my fair lady *tip*, jokes aside shes pretty cute, also the anime isnt very good, read the visual novel for a proper understanding of Umineko

>>960160
So would you say GDP is a good indicator? Why is it that we should view 07-09 as 'normal' how do we not know we have had any advancements in technology and our gdp actually shifts outwards more in the coming years?

For an nzer do you think purchasing some medical health care stocks (Fisher and Paykal) is worth it right now? It seems to be pretty good

Why beatrice

>>960280
>So would you say GDP is a good indicator? Why is it that we should view 07-09 as 'normal' how do we not know we have had any advancements in technology and our gdp actually shifts outwards more in the coming years?

There's no objective standard really, there isn't a point where someone can officially say "alright guys, we're in a downturn/recession".

On topic though, we don't know, it's hard.

General symptoms are deflation, fall in investments, etc, etc, but no shit you can't predict these things spot-on.

Some people try and create indices taking into account many factors and then try to use these to create estimates of when the output is about to fall.

Here's an example.
http://www.cdedse.org/pdf/work210.pdf

All in all, no one has a good estimate and if they do it's probably some big-ass analyst firm or governmental organization that isn't going to put out all its information for free.

But if an academic had they probably would and since there is no known technique and the best minds are academics, I'm going to go ahead and say there's no sure-shot index.

>>959751
Just forget about it. Have whats called a tripwire strategy. Set up everything years before the event and when the event happens, it hits the trip wire and bam your investments pay for themselves while you're running your side business sucking dick. Don't bother with this technical analysis watching little lines and computer screens.

Study fragility in economies.

As much as you can. You have to hunt it and you can guarantee where there is fragility there is probable future income. The more hidden it is the less likely someone is to find it and fix it, the more likely things are to build up around them more and more over time and the bigger the hit is likely to be which means the more you can make.

Be a kind of safety inspector Jew.