When will the bubble pop /biz/?

which bubble? is there anything that isn't in a bubble? is there a bubble index we can use to make the singularity happen faster?

>>3200914
/end_thread

crypto isn't in a bubble, but the shit coin / ICO scam festival is

highly speculative investments typically don't soar when the bubble bursts.

Sorry to.. burst your bubble. Also dubz.

>>3200914
crypto bubble pops once govts start to regulate

>>3200919

> Bubble index

Kek'd

>>3200930
true but the scams are in part already crashing see digimarines
>>3200947
which govt?
even when the us tries to regulate, there is still so much going on worldwide

>>3200914
lol you NEETs crack me up. crypto will not take over fiat in our lifetimes. Maybe in the 2200s.

Bubbleq graphs are in a bubble webm graphs with sound when

>>3200962
obviously a jok
crash when then? I'd say not before 2019

>>3200914
>usd crashes
Usd and btc both sitting on bubbles now.

Flippening this year if digits.

>>3200914
The BTC bubble will pop before the end of this year. Currency backed by nothing except speculative investments will go nowhere but down.

>>3201003
>Currency backed by nothing except speculative investments will go nowhere but down
Time to short USD I guess

>>3200914
>crypto bubble crashes first, BTC drops back to at least low 3000s. normies leave and true believers stay

>(((they))) use trump as a patsy to let the market finally crash. Fed is forced to start QE again, drops rates to zero, and America realizes the recession never ended, value of dollar plummets as inflation rises and commodities like oil/gold skyrocket

>Emerging markets boom from weak dollar. China or India embraces capitalism and becomes the new USA. World rejects fiat and turns to either crypto or gold standard.

>USA becomes a socialist, dystopian shithole full of brown people, heavy taxes, and no privacy.

>>3200930
Posting from my TV:
This Crypto a Bubble?
This is probably in the mind of all investors in crypto. At least of those who aren't insiders who know the answer. My own take on this issue comes from the point of view of wealth creation. In my opinion, the use of a market cap indicator is deceiving and misleading. While the number gives a rough idea of how much crypto is worth, it does so mediocrely.

Without claiming to have a clear answer, using a different metric to market cap. Instead, using a "gross crypto product". The GCP would let us understand if crypto is a bubble by how much wealth is created each period. The concept of the GCP lies on the production, which comes from staking, mining, etc. and the price at which these coins are being produced.

Trying to find out the origin of the wealth created by coin creation is the core problem to be solved. For this, we can tell that the basic cost comes from electrical expenses, as well as equipment cost. If a certain currency is valued at 10 dollars, and that same day 2 coins are created, a total of 20 USD worth of that currency was created. From that amount, we still need to subtract the cost of production. If the aggregate cost of mining those 2 coins was higher than 20 USD, that means that something is offsetting that loss.

>>3201052
Let's suppose there are two miners, and each one spends 5 USD every day to get their equipment going. One would expect that these miners would sell their coins at 5 USD/day plus some margin. If only one coin can be mined every day, and they have 50/50 chances of getting the reward, the miners would need to sell 10 USD of coins every day to break even.

However, many people argue that these currencies are worth essentially nothing. So what is the real creation of wealth? It's not those 10 USD every day, but just the marginal increase of the price, which the miners receive. Once the miners get their rewards, they pass on the coin into the market. Once the coin is in the market, the price may go up or down.

The next day, the miner will come back expecting to sell at the usual 11 USD, but he finds out the coin is trading at 20 USD. Those extra 7 USD came from external sources, flowing into the closed crypto markets. With a few calculations, the accounts look like this:

• Miner's: (x_n + 11) USD/day_n - 10 USD/day = x_n + 1 USD/day_n
• Investor's: (sum(x_n)) USD - (x_n + 11)) USD

Each coin is, in some way, worth 1 USD to the miners. The total of m coins are expected to be valued at a minimum of 11*m; each coin worth 11 USD. To this worth we need to add sum(x_n). If the sum converges to zero, the coins will be effectively valued at the aggregate mining costs.
Depending on where the convergence of the sum is, we want that the price stays near the final value. That, of course, would require to know the future, but we could try to use past movements of abandoned cryptocurrencies to better understand the relation between mining costs and final prices.

All in all, I believe that the sum(x_n) for most coins is near zero- most coins are only worth their mining costs. That makes me think that the GCP is in the high side of the cycle, which might lead to a crypto-recession.

>>3201063
nigga WHAT????

>BTC is backed by nothing
>Ignore the miners
>Ignore the code
>Ignore the utility
>Buy shiny metals
>Civic nationalism can work

Boomers are the best.

>>3201069
>DEMAND MAKES PRICES REAL AS WELL.
Fuck off Keynesians. Just because people want to buy shit, it doesn't mean shit is anything more than stool. Shitcoins are a bubble.

every industry is a bubble, its just a matter of timeframe

>>3201063
looking at www.coinwarz.com/cryptocurrency you can see that mining different cryptos varies massively in profitability. which means more miner could leave/joins certain coins to make it an equilibrium. but they don't so for most cryptos it's probably close to 0-convergence.
Also I don't think people spent more than 1 billion in total on mining stuff (vs market cap 150b)

>>3201131
* not close to 0-convergence

>>3201071
>Ignore the miners

Crypto will be dropped like a piece of turd as soon as it becomes unprofitable.

>Ignore the code

Scalability issues and slow transaction times. Fixing these issues is hampered by disagreements and conflict of interest.

>Ignore the utility

Volatility is too high to be a store of value or used as currency.

>>3201071
(((civic nationalism)))

>>3201035
A true believer believes in the service that bitcoin used to offer: transactions without a central authority (without the jew going through your pockets and making you jump through hoops). Anyone who truly wants this will go to BCC.

The new arrivals will drop fast, the old timers will already be gone and BTC falls under a thousand, bull traps and liquidates.