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Normally: BTC goes UP, alts go UP
Normally: BTC goes DOWN, alts go DOWN
Today: BTC goes UP, alts go DOWN
What gives?
Bear market occurs over uncertainty associated with hardfork. ICO fiasco happens, reducing crypto market cap. Prices drop. Segwit gets locked in, BTC price recovers to near ATH, but fluctuates just under it because of the August 1st hard fork.
Here's the thing: BTC is close to it's all time high, yet ETH and other alts are still unrecovered.
This is because people have been moving there money out of alts and into BTC in order to get BCC. Most I would say think BCC will be low value, and not even Coinbase plans to support it.
That means, current BTC price is the highest it will be, because it is already inflated by the buyers looking to secure their BCC.
If BCC has value, BTC drops. If BCC is valuable, BTC drops by that amount. Either way, BTC will drop because there is no new money coming into crypto like in the last bull run, that was fed by the Ether and ICO craze.
So, what I'm saying is, BTC price is overinflater due to the BCC buy-in, and will drop in price regardless, unless people gain confidence and decide to put new money into the crypto market.
There will likely be uncertainty after August 1st because BCC and BTC may play against each other in the favor of whales, or BTC will win and be at the Marcy of the Chinese software upgrades, while could affect speculator confidence.
Thoughts?
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I could care less about BCC myself.
I have a sell order placed at 3 grand just in case.
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a lot of btc is out of circulation atm waiting for bcc. people sold their alt bags for some bcc, but they'll be back trying to increase their original alt holdings after having selling bcc on arrival.
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I think it's a solid assessment in terms of BTC price.
The universal drop on alts is, as you said, due to people shifting money into BTC to get BCC.
As soon as that goes through, people will be diving back into alts.
BTC will almost certainly drop. Maybe only a couple of hundred dollars though.
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>>2914586
or people are betting on segwit being a smashing success and pushing btc past $3k.
hopefully with these idiots forked off we wont have to worry about raising the block size either
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>>2914646
it's hilarious how nobody on /biz/ appears to give two fucks about the technical debate and just wants to trade shitcoins
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Yep BTC will almost certainly drop but maybe alts will drop further too....remember crypto market isnt really logical, it's just random shit, who the fuck knows what will happen.
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>>2914586
That's a good assessment. However, I'm thinking money will pour back. Market was 120b not too long ago.
Plus you have more of Wall Street looking to dig their teeth in.
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ETH/BTC volume has decreased though
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>>2914731
people are taking their coins off the exchanges and into wallets
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>>2914731
Trade accross the board has decreased. Polo has 60% less active traders than a couple months ago. It dipped below 20k users today
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