Current market depth and ETH thoughts

STFU

Nobody in this board knows what will happen to ETH.

>>2660409

small summary of mispriced risks from the perspective of hodlers and traders.

1) Bubble risk – When your cab driver is telling you to invest in X because X is going to make you rich, you can be sure with 100% certainty the market has reached (at least a local) maximum.

2) Tech risk – BTC succeeded in being the first mover that reached critical mass. ETH has been an innovative fast follower. The cryptotech of the future is likely to be the one that implements all of the incremental tech solutions that BTC & ETH have and will solve. E.g transaction throughput, off-chain txs, fair proof of X, etc.

3) Whale risk – there’s lots of incentive for whales and ICOs to cash out of ETH, fortunes can be made by liquidating today. We saw the impact to the liquidity in the market the last time this happened.

4) Counterparty risk I – people assume the exchanges are as secure as banks and their money is insured etc. Let’s say their right, banks fail too, 2 major ones in Italy last week.

5) Counterparty risk II – the exchanges mostly use automated trading bots, the risk of automated trading strategies blowing up on them is increased with the extreme price volatility.

>>2660409

6) Counterparty risk III – its highly suspicious that the exchanges prevent trading during big price swings, it wreaks of existential risk to the solubility of the underlying business.

7) Protocol risk – ETH is going to switch to Proof of Stake. Might be good, might not be. Either way in healthy markets such fundamental unknowns (risk) would be priced-in (realism), not priced-up (hope).

8) Money supply risk – BTC has a known finite supply. ETH core dev team controls the rate of ETH production (supply), they’re not a central bank, but have the powers of one. Don’t believe me then read up on ICE Age and also the supposedly “deflationary” features of PoS. In any case, this should be a major risk factor over long time horizons.

9) Regulation risk – Many ICO’s can be classified as scams (not maybe, but can by any objective measure) its only a matter of time until regulators step in and the Ethereum Foundation does not have the capacity to comply with a regulators governance framework without a major overhaul… it will have to change and how it will change is an unknown, unknowns increases risk with respect to valuation.

10) Going back to #3 the current market depth on ETH could be eaten entirely by any of the major recent ICOs or whales... there's only some many times people will fall for trading back up to the pre-crash price.

tldr; be careful when picking pennies in front of steam rollers.

What's the safer option then?

>>2660547

Didn't say there was one, just pointed out how most folks don't understand risk.

>>2660547
sell just enough to get your initial investment back, maybe a couple of grands extra

let the rest sit for a couple of years

peace of mind is bliss, tbqh, sure your potential reward will be less, but you wont be losing anything if it crashes and burns

tbqh, im taking my initial investment back if eth hits 800$+

Tl;dr Eth is a mess

I enjoyed this analysis

>>2660445
>>2660428
Thanks. I read these and immediately felt better about a recent buy.

>>2660871
np

Eth is done. Sell now and buy ant shares for great CHYNAH

>>2660809

thanks!

File: eth short 2.png (56KB, 1298x718px) Image search: [Google]

56KB, 1298x718px

How deep is it going to fall?

>8) Money supply risk – BTC has a known finite supply. ETH core dev team controls the rate of ETH production (supply), they’re not a central bank, but have the powers of one. Don’t believe me then read up on ICE Age and also the supposedly “deflationary” features of PoS. In any case, this should be a major risk factor over long time horizons.

why do you consider this a major risk factor? unless you think vitalik and co. are just straight up lying about the move to PoS or something, the development updates and projected number of tokens available sounds reasonable

>>2661598

possibly all the way to zero but just because i'm bearish doesn't mean i'd suggest shorting...
irrational exuberance can overwhelm anyones short position..

and weird things can happen when shorting and the price falls to zero, like markets not quoting in the run down, counter-parties going bust etc (e.g. shorts not getting paid out, or not in full)

>>2661729
I didn't short because of this thread. If one's afraid of extreme cases like going to 0 or margin trading breaking down, one probably shouldn't trade at all.

>>2661706

on the basis that it should work as planned both:-

1) from a tech perspective i.e. being free from contract defects (remember DAO, contracts can have bugs)

2) from a behavioural perspective, that it will drive the behaviours in the market as hypothesised by a small team of software developers (not that i believe behavioural economists would fair any better).

i think with above two points its probably fair to say switchover to PoS is not completely risk-free.

>>2661746
>If one's afraid of extreme cases like going to 0 or margin trading breaking down, one probably shouldn't trade at all.

i'd agree, and go further to say that margin trading and shorting is for sophisticated investors only.

you mention "extreme cases", that was the point of my original post... that extreme cases with the price of ETH are at least an order of magnitude or two more likely than with other traded instruments. i.e people are generally very poor at pricing end of spectrum risk.

>>2661462
Hey you are welcome nice to see something thought out for a change, and I agree with your predictions

>>2661746
if one talks like a faggot one should shut the fuck up.