Who else went long on GBPUSD before the Bank of England news release?
>>2456019
>finally a non crypto related thread on /biz/
They left rates on hold amidst retail sales missing forecasts plunging 1.2% with inflation going up. The exchange rate will probably go up since the BoE may have to ease further depending on how the Brexit vote goes. So it's probably a good long term hold as well.
>>2456051
Why would not increasing rates, along with inflation, lead to an increase is the Pound's value. What am I missing?
>>2456051
The rate unchanged was expect. The surpise was the change in vote to hike rates.
>>2456078
expected
>>2456065
Oh shit I mixed them up. That's my bad.
You should probably short then. I'd say that the rates probably won't go up anytime soon unless the BoE wants any more economic instability.
>>2456078
What are the long term odds of rate hikes? considering the ECB has seen an increase in inflation so far in 2017 from its NIRP policy, the BoE doesn't really have the incentive to hike rates now so it has more room to cut during a future recession, they could just send rates negative to stimulate the economy.
Inflation picking up may be concerning but UK inflation is only at 2.9%, which isn't really anything to scream about. Above 4-5% is where I'd start getting concerned, but a lot of academic Econ has proposed overshooting the inflation target.
>>2456122
Trying to predict long term odds is difficult and not part of my strategy. I'm focused on intraday and intraweek moves. The 2 verticle lines in the OP pic show the news articles and time of publish that gave me the signal to go long before the news.