Hey /biz/, there's a rumor in shipping markets that Vale, the Brazilian iron ore giant, will stop using converted ore carriers (ships that were originally oil supertankers) after one sunk and several others developed cracks and other problems in the last month.
If these 20 or so converted giant ore carriers are scrapped, they will need to be replaced by an equivalent 30 or so traditional Capesize bulk carriers, which are usually employed in the Australia-China trade instead.
However, the Australia-China route takes like a month for a round trip, whereas the Brazil-China round trip takes like 2.5 months. That's a lot of extra tonne-miles, the only metric that matters.
If this rumor has any legs, the dry market will get a pretty decent boost. But it's only a rumor.
Nice to see some real tips, and not about shitcoins for once. Thanks anon.
Enjoy that 6% gain while I'm making 500% daily on crypto
>>2147495
isn't dry bulk priced at an all-time-low?
I recall a gook shipping company that ranked among the largest in the world going under last year or so
>>2148227
Last year was really bad, but there's been a recovery since then
It's a frail recovery, but shipping is ultimately always going to be a very cyclical market and it's obvious which direction it's going to go right now
Just remember the good times will never last either. And the cycles are now shorter because China can create whole fleets in record time.
>>2148399
since you seem to be privvy to what's happening, how do you expect the coming thorough modernization of 'silk road' overland infrastructure project by chyna to affect the shipping industry?
>>2148534
They're upgrading port facilities worldwide which makes smaller ships even less competitive and inefficient.
That's mainly for containers but they're also doing it to dry bulk. For example the bauxite Port Kamsar in Guinea, West Africa, which gave its name to an entire class of ships (Kamsarmax), is now upgraded to handle much bigger ships. In the long run, the entire category might become obsolete.
Also they invested in a tanker terminal in Myanmar that will bring crude to China via a pipeline over land, so they don't have to ship it via the Malacca strait and Singapore, in case someone ever decides to block that.
But the vast majority of their focus is container terminals that are getting bought and upgraded.
>>2147985
Don't be a n00b
Diversify in case of a crypto bubble
Reminded me to add to my position. Just purchased 1k more shares of Golden Ocean. Also like Scorpio Bulkers.
>>2148730
I'd bet on a Scorpio/Star Bulk all-stock merger before the end of the year
Also be wary of Eagle Bulk, they have no big ships. They focus entirely on mid-range ones that are never going to have a good upside. It's a well managed company now, but their strategy is dumb.
>>2148765
Interesting, haven't heard of that merger rumor. Cool to finally see a little recovery over the past few months, at least in capsize rates. If you look at GNK, three different hedge funds basically called the bottom by investing in at around $7/share, just before the whole sector started rising. Might be worthwhile to look into what those funds are thinking now.