Japan: A Model for Long-Term Budget Deficits?

>actual economic discussion

bruh..

>*tumbleweed blows by*
>cough

>>2012970
>With a smaller population
because japan is xenophobic. the US is still relatively porous compared to japan.

consider for a moment that a foreign national having a child with a japanese would result in the child not being considered japanese. they actually have special naming in the family tree to deal with such a thing.

you cannot hold a dual citizenship. after i believe 21 years of age, you must declare yourself either japanese or some other national.

the US is still a desirable place to immigrate to. and mexicans breed like rabbits. i do agree that current demographic trends show at minimum a flattening if not gradual increase in working age.

if the alt media is believed, china and a host of other counrties are buying vast amounts of gold.

>>2012970
What you suggest (tax free T bills) does sound like a sensible medium term solution.

The problem is that investors want an easy buck and investing in the rapid growth of 3rd world countries is attractive.

Continuing to increase the population is our biggest problem

>>2013265
Many investors want an easy buck, but it seems like many Chinese buyers are investing in our Treasuries because they're a safe asset. So long as China doesn't reform their economy, which is about as likely as us getting the debt under control, it seems like there will still be demand for Treasuries as a safe means of storing wealth. As we see more emerging markets open up in Southeast Asia and perhaps Africa, this will also open up demand for Treasury notes and support our debt, wouldn't it? So long as those nations have capital but have unstable governing policies and high political risk, investors will want to park their money in T-bills.

Is there anything wrong with my view of the debt from there?

The tax cut idea I think would be good, but there's also the issue that this may reduce demand for muni bonds. It seems like muni bonds play a big role in local financing, so this could place pressure on state and local pensions.

Does it have anything to do with Japan's debt being very old compared to ours, and also their exporting power being a lot stronger compared to nominal GDP in the country?

I don't know much about economics. As a Japanese I know quite a bit about the counrty's economic history, but my family moved here over 15 years ago so I'm pretty out of the loop.

>>2012970
japan's debt is not payable due to a lack of population and productivity growth, they will have to default at some point or sell off part of the country to china.

however, because japanese value stability, have very low crime rates and high social cohesion, the implosion of their economy due to debt will be very, very slow motion and managable.

basically in the future japanese will have a lower quality of life, but will still probably be one of the best places on earth to live.

>>2014682
Tomomasa... is that you?

>>2014696
Why would the government default if most of the government bonds are held by the people? The Japanese government can keep covering their ass by selling more government bonds and having their people buy them up, can't they? At the very least it kicks the can down the road by at least a decade. The point of my thread was to ask how we could replicate the same results in the West.

>>2014704
>The Japanese government can keep covering their ass by selling more government bonds and having their people buy them up, can't they?

no they cannot, not indefinitely. the reason people buy bonds is the expectation that they will be repaid. if,say, debt reaches 500% of GDP, it's impossible to pay it off, and as the government issues more and more bonds to service the debt, the yen crashes because it will have no fiat value anymore, since the government itself is bankrupt. this has all kinds of knock on effects that further damage the economy

>>2014704
>At the very least it kicks the can down the road by at least a decade.

yes, they have been delaying the reckoning a decade in hopes of productivity growth to bail them out. it hasn't happened, but their society is very orderly, so theoretically this slow motion breakdown is managable

>>2014704
>The point of my thread was to ask how we could replicate the same results in the West.

the results are already happening in the united states and many european countries. the difference is the US is still somewhat dynamic with productivity and population growth, so we could THEORETICALLY pay off the debt

unlike japan the US doesn't really have a choice. we have very low social cohesion, so any economic collapse will lead to mass pandemonium/race riots

>>2014735
>yen loses fiat value

But the Yen is generally seen as a safe haven from international financial troubles. The Japanese government and the BoJ have had troubles creating inflation because of this demand it seems like.

People do buy bonds because they expect to be paid back, but the point isn't to be the gold standard of bonds, but it seems to be the best relative to everyone else: the one-eyed leading the blind. The US has a pretty big debt that is unlikely to get under control, but so long as investing in Treasuries is less likely to be nationalized or seized by the CCP, it seems like Chinese investors will keep going for it.

For the Japanese, wouldn't they just have to avoid international financial trouble affecting other areas (i.e. bubbles and the sort) to keep their currency supported? Considering we're in virtually the Third lost decade almost, it doesn't look like they're going to be in a major bubble some time soon.

>in hopes of productivity growth to bail them out

If you continue automation it seems like they'd be fine. Right now they're on top when it comes to that sort of thing it looks like.

>dynamic with productivity and population growth

Ahhh I see what you mean. I thought that you were playing some Zerohedge edgy contrarian and trying to blackpill everything. Tell me more about productivity growth in the US though- I understand that our population is growing, but what's our productivity like? Is productivity the reason why Germany has such a large manufacturing base despite having first world regulations and wages?

>>2014756
>I thought that you were playing some Zerohedge edgy contrarian and trying to blackpill everything.

i love zerohedge but sometimes they jump the shark

>>2014756
>Tell me more about productivity growth in the US though- I understand that our population is growing, but what's our productivity like?

were the best in the world, google and amazon are american companies for a reason. if we pay off our debts, it'll be because of companies like this paying gobs of tax

>>2014756
>Is productivity the reason why Germany has such a large manufacturing base despite having first world regulations and wages?

yes, they also have other advantages, like being surrounded by shitty countries with horribly noncompetitive, corrupt economies that share the same currency market

>>2014756
>If you continue automation it seems like they'd be fine. Right now they're on top when it comes to that sort of thing it looks like.

they may just! we'll know in the future, japan has a weird economy and i don't fully understand it, japan might actually work too hard, need less toiling, more fucking and baby making to jump start consumption

>>2014756
>The Japanese government and the BoJ have had troubles creating inflation because of this demand it seems like.

one of the problems japan and china and other countries have is trying to "manage" the currency, which distorts the economy. japan tried to have a weak yen to bloster exports and create inflation, and all this did was undermine real consumption/growth. the US is much more liberal with its currency and it helps us out, ironically our dollar is strong because it's left to its own devices

>>2014756
>but so long as investing in Treasuries is less likely to be nationalized or seized by the CCP, it seems like Chinese investors will keep going for it.

just so you know, US treasury and corporate debt is held by everyone, you, me, the citiziens, the banks, foreigners, foreign governments, everyone wants it, not just chinese

>>2014814
God Zerohedge. Loads of insight hardly covered elsewhere all wrapped up in conspiracy shit. Love-hate them