Why do people play regular lotteries with maybe 0.5 expected

>>1941600
Because Expected Value doesn't actually mean jack shit.

I'll make you a deal OP.

I'll give you $63509171277430364476957340676915200 if you can get heads from a coin flip just 100 times in a row. But if you fail, you have to give me just $100.

Your expected value is $50,000 just for flipping some coins.

Wanna play?

Because Bitcoin is the OG pumpndump shitcoin

>>1941611

no, my expected value is 0 because I know you can't follow through on your promises

>>1941850
Tell you what, you get a deal.

I'll give you $50,000, a deal I can absolutely follow through with, if you toss a coin and land heads just 8 times. If you lose, you only pay me $100.

Your expected value is $100.

Now you wanna do that deal?

>>1941867
I'm not even a gambler and I'd take that.

>>1942033
It's a one time deal so we never repeat it and you have a 99.6% chance of simply losing $100.

Why would you take >>1941867
and not >>1941611
though? Your expected value is the same.

File: fireball_2.jpg (10KB, 200x325px) Image search: [Google]

10KB, 200x325px

>>1941600
any question from this point forward where the baseline reads "why are people doing stupid things?" the answer people are stupid.

You're fucking welcome.

>>1941867
>>1942046

expected value is not 100, stop throwing out fake numbers

0.5^8 = 0.00390625

0.00390625*50000-100*(1-0.00390625) = 95.70

95.70 is the expected value, a loss of around 4 dollars and 30 cents per game played

>>1942054
>a loss of 4 dollars and 30 cents per game played
No that means a gain of 95.70 and all you're highlighting is a rounding error on my part.

The expected value below 0 would be a loss and above 0 a gain. I'm fucking right about this you moron.

>>1942054
It's literally my fucking job to be right about basic probability all day.

>>1942056

oh yeah we were both wrong to some degree

but no, I would not play, given the large variance on the expected return and the fact I cannot play repeated games

>>1941600
Because 99,9% of people haven't even heard about bitcoin or cryptocurrency.

>>1941600

>why do stupid people waste money