short volatility trading

I short volatility, but not with options

>>1926170
i got call options on VIX, bub. youre fucked, mate!

Yeah it's worked for the past few years but it'd be pretty fucking moronic to do it right now with volatility hovering near record-lows and complacency at record highs.

Volatility will at least mean-revert in the coming months. It's highly likely that it will overshoot big time and spike again imo, too many potential headwinds (and stupid amounts of VIX shorts who will need to unwind fast) for the market for it not to spike.

heh, OP's blog is a goldmine:
>Like a lot of options topics, I feel gamma intuitively, and I think you should too if you have ever had a project due, a test, presentation
>the project is the underlying (like stock) and our delta (underlying directional change) is how "done" the project is.
>Having to prep AV for a meeting a week earlier is no problem, basically a much lower delta effect on the position
>I think the ultimate short option/ gamma stress is death- does anyone else think about options and it immediately goes to thinking about mortality?

>>1926170
>literally fucked if stock market corrects

>>1926170

>anyone else still short volatility?

Are you fucking retarded? Long. You have to go long! Vix is like as cheap as before the 2008 crisis. You have to buy calls or +1 ETPs. Dude ... You had like only one single job: not to fuck up. And you decided to do the completely wrong thing.

http://ieor.columbia.edu/files/seasieor/industrial-engineering-operations-research/pdf-files/JPM_VIX_20121_Columbia.pdf

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-17/jpmorgan-quant-frets-stock-complacency-too-high-after-dutch-vote

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/31/mysterious-trader-known-as-50-cent-bets-millions-on-volatility-spike.html

>>1926170
I just long XIV, not gonna mess with options or shorting TVIX.

OP here-
I mean this is good now we are at least discussing it- Im bringing it up because now everyone is saying to be long vix, which I understand all your reasons for- yet we have a 2 sided market and contango is on the short vix side, plus im noting keeping over 50% cash for the volatility buy the dip opportunities

being an actual contrarian when everyone is screaming 'long vix duhhh'

>>1927505

Yeah stick with your gut because VIX can be hard to speculate, especially with options. People in the thread aren't wrong, but it is hard to say when the big spike will be. With that said, you can probably profit off of all the little spikes since one little thing seems to cause baby bounces thanks to the current administration.

i keep a permanent short open for over three years. i farm it for about ten grand a year. I could do more but i fear a volcano spike. i read theoretical papers about how UVXY/TVIX would behave during the 2007/2008 meltdown, basically will obliterate just about any short vix account, even mine probably