/lig/ Long-term Investing General

>>1838693
I'm in some swing shorts right now because I think the indexes are overvalued. SPX P/E at 27, rounded. SPY has an even higher P/E at 55.

I think JCP in the long term is doomed. The store and distribution center closes are going to be harder than they realize because many are behind non cancellable leases. Their operating leases are essentially off balance sheet and need to be adjusted in and they've made poor credit choices.
>note payable 7.625% 2097
>floating rate debt partially hedged by fixed-floating swaps

It's going to be fascinating to see them get squeezed.

>>1838761
Was actually surprised by the number of positive retail quarter earnings there were like with KSS because im avoiding them long term just because of the fact that I think amazon is going to replace them all.

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Get ready for bank stocks to soar for march

>>1838792
It's weird going into a Nordstrom or JC Penny in 2017. The amount of clothing is overwhelming after spending time online and, overpriced, spending time in second hand shops. The whole experience seemed unfocused and the world is moving on. The malls in my area are transitioning into specialty and high class retail.

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>>1838826
Would be interested in a chart that shows which items get sold the most online and which sold the least. I think retails like dicks will survive because people like hold and see equipment like guns or golf clubs first moreso than try on clothings

>>1838812
wouldnt rapid rate rises be bad?
household debt is high and could trigger more mass defaults.

>>1838843
Size and nature matter too. A few shirts or shoes from zappos are a lot cheaper to ship then a golf bag/tent (size), rope (weight), or ammunition (regulared). For guns, depending in the gun, some people will pay extra but some things, like ammunition, you just have to go get in person because UPS wont risk the shipment unless it's bulk commercial because they have economies of scale.

Brick and Mortar is still viable but you need to cost and qualify the inventory. If I was building a deck I would go to home depot because it would be cheaper and I can optimize the wood I need.

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>>1838860
Oh yeah, we could be completely fucked.

But i still think its going to cause banks to rise for a short period

>>1838860
Existing debt for householda is fixed and this is great for banks because more revenue.

It will also bring foreign flows to the US considering we have the highest riskless interest rates right now. EU and Tokyo are negative.

>Hong Kong
Not riskless
>Australia
No one cares

>>1838862
Thats good point.

Do you think while other retail stores are failing, it will cause others to rise?

Also, i think retail stores should focus more one incorporating maintenance. Like a computer fix up crew stationed inside a best buy instead of having to look for one.

Id also look it boats and marina stores. I wonder if these go up in the in the summer or spring break when theres more tourism and boating.

>>1838693
MU is still a good buy. I started preaching it over a year ago (which, in retrospect, was a tad premature) and it still has a great deal of upward movement available. Expecting $.9-1.0 EPS guidance on March 23 for current Q and $1-1.2 guidance for the following quarter. Q that just ended will beat $.86 and F1Q EPS was $.32.

Thus, ~$3.2 seems like a good EPS estimate for FY17.

The last (and only) time MU earned more than $3/share for a year, it traded from its current price (~$26) to $36.59. But this time there is more diversification in DRAM use cases along with many, many more devices (IoT, cars, AI platforms, etc) and MU's 3D NAND is becoming the lowest cost solution in the industry.

The memory industry is volatile and cyclical, but there are tells when the cycle will turn and all indications point undersupply of DRAM and NAND for at least the next 2 quarters, keeping prices high. In addition, the last down cycle was not as severe as previous cycles.

TL;DR: MU is still a monster buy

>>1838880
You know, I was assuming that retail stores were competing in such a manner that if a few left then the rest will prosper. I don't think thats the case anymore.

The revene, operational expense, and financing expenses between these chains may either be more independent or interrelated (see nordstrom and nordstrom rack) then we can measure. I think your best bet is to trend inventory and depreciation. If they're accumulating at a similar rate then you might infer that inventory isn't selling. Another thing I would do is look at their inventory turnover ratio and break it out annually to get a measure of how fast they sell the entirety of it.

>>1838862
You can ship ammo. Guns, not so much.

>>1838963
I thought they were both regulates but I can't remember.

>>1838894
I still have some holdings in JCP, you think I should just get out while I still can or is there any hope of even a small bump?

>>1839157
When did you buy in?

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>>1839172
8

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>>1839188

>>1839200
p-pls

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Best Defense Stocks? So far, its been kind of a bust because analysis thought Trump would spend more on Defense. But, I think Hunington is the best bet because

1.) Great Q4 Ratings
2.) Trumps been having meetings with CEO more than the others

Ive heard Boeing has promise not because of Trump, but more for hype of their new releases.

>>1838866

EU is at 0, not negative.

I'm still rooting for the fed to raise the interest rate as I hold some bank stocks from where I'm from and it's also impacting them.

>>1839157
Lemme put it this way...

My long put options will make me 45% if it hits my 5.50 price target

>inb4 theta decay
I'm not a tard and can account for that

>>1841389
German rates are at negative according to Bloomberg.

Mastricht Treaty pegs all EU interest rates to German rates. They oscillate in that range.

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I may crash and burn, but I may also have hit the jackpot.

There is a mining operation starting nearby, it recently got all the approvals passed after some stormy events, and has officially started building it's site. It's allegedly the richest store of this particular resource ever discovered. Politicians and business people are backing it, feeling it will be good for the economy. Local farmland was bought up for millions, before permissions where even secured. Now there is speedy work being done to widen roads for large transport trucks.

The shares are under 25c, at the moment. It's a long, long term investment, as it could be years before they actually start the mining process and make a profit, but that's just giving me time to buy in with my disposable income that I might otherwise waste on comics, games and take-out. I might as well waste it on a chance at getting rich off a project I'm lucky to live within local-info distance of.

It's cool because even though it means fuckall, I still feel a little more motivated in daily life by being involved in some tiny way, and being able to track the progress with personal investment.

Could i get your guys opinion on Boeing BA? Its getting abkt controversal, bht i think ill make out if i invest now

>>1841410

You're right, I just checked and rates are going down from -0.30 to -0.40 on March 16th.

I think I'm gonna buy more banks from where I'm from, they're undervalued compared to other international banks. I just hope the upcoming election doesn't fuck me in the ass even tho it's not that likely.

Thinking about buying car parts manufacturers too as there is growth potential for those implanted in developing countries, and growth potential from the ones that make sensors/hybrid/electronic for the self driving electric cars of tomorrow.

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r8 my gains

>>1842884
What's the ticker?

>>1843827

How long ago did you buy each?
Also:
>not picking your own stocks like a pro

Just kidding. Look up Lyxor Nasdaq 100 Daily Leverage ETF, what do you think? The gains are crazy even if you take the 2008 crisis into account.

>SXX
>No, siriusly.

>>1843928
Intended for
>>1843920

>>1843925

These are bought between August and December

How do I into a Roth IRA?

When will Swiss govt bonds go positive again?

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I swear the fuck, if boeing goes down because of a bunch of britbongs complaining how there was not toilet paper on the plane, i will make sure they get nuked first in wwiii.

>>1844791
I started an Roth IRA through Schwab. Just to get my foot in the door I out in $1k. You can max it out tax free to $5500 every fiscal year. By the time you're 70 (?), you can take that money out of the account tax free too.

>>1844791
Vanguard > Target Date Retirement Funds > automatic monthly contributions and walk away

>>1844957
>>1844963
Benefits to each? The Vanguard seems pretty easy.