DOW JONES HITS 21000

You posted this on /pol/, the answer is still "I dont know"

>>1826622
Recessions don't just happen for no reason.

Can you point me to any data that says a recession will take place?

>>1826622

What are the biggest risk right now that could trigger another financial crisis?
Serious question.

Sometime within the next 3 years?

>>1826648
How about a tarriff trade war with China started by our favorite reality TV star

>>1826672
Nah, their banks and real estate collapse, panic sets in China, they stop buying up commodities like oil, oil hits $25, they stop flooding countries with junk, they still make iphones. Again commodities like oil drop as China isn't in the business to flood foreign markets with cheap junk, focuses on for profit not bank floated flood the world factories with garbage.

>>1826672
Mexico should be begging for this. Put a border tax on units costing over a certain amount. That would preserve US heavy industries and still allow for cheap shit to be pumped out of Mexico by the truck load.

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>>1826622
>It's been 8 years since the last recession so we're due for another one.
The recovery was especially sluggish, so we might be due an extra few years of growth. The Fed only recently raised rates.

Listen to a pessimist and an optimist. They tend to be focused on different sectors of the economy. Pessimists tend to look at the decline of manufacturing, demographics, inflation, growth of government, etc. Optimists tend to look at tech and science, especially our ability to attract very smart researchers.

Put simply, we have two divergent worldviews. One defined on the whole, and good jobs for the less educated. One defined by the few smartest, and UBI (if anything) for everybody else.

We'll see who wins out. I suspect the economy is peaking, but who knows.

>>1826684
I was thinking the same, the recovery was basically slow and not a real recovery, I wouldn't be surprised if there's a few years of good growth coming, depends though on how well Trump plays everything out.

>>1826622
Periodic recession will hit towards the end of this year. Won't be significant though.

>>1826674
You want oil to drop again? The fuck?

>>1826679
Mexico is not even close to competing with China on cost. Wtf

I forgot. /biz/ lots of opinions, zero knowledge

>>1826663
The massive derivative bubble in Deutsche Bank that is getting squeezed while Greece and Italy's banks are being bailed out, brexit is exiting, and France about to bail out too. The US banks are all tied to the derivative market and its just a matter of which domino sets it off.

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>>1826696
>implying brexit will impact trade in any significant way
>implying Le Pen will win elections (protip: she will lose the second round)
>implying US is dependent on European economy

Sure, eurozone is in for trouble (actually still is since 2008). US will get slowed down. But domino? Nu-uh.

>>1826694
>Mexico is not even close to competing with China on cost
Nope, nowadays it's actually cheaper to produce in Mexico in certain fields. Get your facts straight.

>>1826689
>implying president of US has any real power over economy

>>1826663
As usual, people not being able to buy shit

>>1826648
We've been in a recession - why do you think yellen has been dumping trillions of dollars into the 'economy' via QE? It's been propping up our zombie economy for years. Stocks appeared to rebound relatively quickly from the 2008 crash because of QE money not because of true earnings. And notice the private sector never got out of the recession.

I recall china being a big negative factor in the media which adversly affected us markets, so maybe recession the next time whoever owns the media decides its time for correction?

>>1826694
>You want oil to drop again? The fuck?
Well I did say commodities, I expect gold to take a dive too, then its gonna be a lot of crying yellow people and poo's.

>>1826696
Okay.
It is kinda stupid to speak about the derivative bubble as a whole.
What types of derivatives have leverage and systemic risk? Aren't banks restructuring risks already?

>>1826712
>>implying brexit will impact trade in any significant way
Unlikely.
>>implying Le Pen will win elections (protip: she will lose the second round)
Huge mistake to underestimate her chances.
>>implying US is dependent on European economy
>Sure, eurozone is in for trouble (actually still is since 2008). US will get slowed down. But domino? Nu-uh.
We are all connected, what a stupid statement. EU, US, BRICS.
If EU markets go down, US markets go down.
If EU companies get into financial troubles, US companies will be affected.

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>>1826865
DB has come out and cleared the air that no one has to worry because their exposure is now only at €41 Trillion, not the €46 Trillion notional value everyone was reporting. Its fucking ridiculous.
The way the banks 'hedge' their bets is they will write a derivative for one thing, then write an exact opposite derivative somewhere else with different credit. But each credit essentially increases the risk, b/c you have 1000s of different credits that are hedging each other WITH each other. All it takes is one big one to go down then it starts to cascade. It's the discontinuity in the collateral chain that is the achilles heel - and that discontinuity is very achievable with a fiat currency that is practiced with fractional reserve lending.
If you were to take out one of these derivative participating banks, it would automatically freeze all assets- derivatives, stocks, bonds, credit card, savings accounts, all of it. That's why its called too big too fail.
The ECB will absolutely continue to bail out Greece and Italy and any other Eurozone bank that would default, because all it takes is one bank collapsing to trigger the collateral chain breakage. And guess what, all of the major US banks are participating in this mess, our economy will go down with this ship.