Has anybody made any money with political betting? What strategies do you have? What kind of models do you use?
>>1817044
I shorted Bernie Sanders early in 2015. He didn't have enough support from minority voters, so I calculated that he could only win the nomination if the US were >75% white. He improved his numbers later in the primaries, but it wasn't enough. I also assumed there would be party fuckery to undermine him, since Bernie was an independent. He was at like 70% no, so I made about $0.30 per share.
I also assumed, sometime in March 2016, that either Trump would win the nomination outright, or the Republican national convention would be brokered/contested/open. Trump was the only candidate who had a realistic path to the majority of delegates, and a lot of the bound Trump delegates were actually Cruz supporters. Those two positions summed to 90-95%, so I made like $0.05 to $0.10 per share.
I made $600 on election night trading forex betting that trump would win
Mostly on British Politics, I got Brexit at 5-1 and made 8000 GBP
My model was to look at the polling companies data (not the headline figures, but the actual tables) and I realised they were over-estimating youth turnout. Once I re-adjusted I figured out Leave would win by a thin margin and got in on it. I wish I bet on the night because odds of 25-1 were flying just after polls closed but I couldn't.
Also betting on bye-elections has been pretty safe so far, not good odds but the winners have been obvious which allowed me to roll up my money a bit.
>>1818037
that last sentence makes no sense, why would you bet without the odds, no matter how obvious the outcome you don't bet if the odds aren't in your favour.
I made money on Trump becoming president, now I'm thinking of betting on Le Pen in the French election. Anyone know anything about French politics to assuage any risk?
>>1818039
Safe bets at like 1/10 allow me to 10% up my money. How is that bad when the result is almost certain? Much better than a 1/1 coinflip where it's impossible to really know which way it goes.
>>1817044
I made $1800 over 2016. This is with an initial start of $150.
All i did was analyse demographics, polls, and my own political insight. Although, econometrics is my major so im pretty good with stats.
>>1818051
Oh I see, so by "not good odds", you meant, "low odds" as opposed to odds that were lower than the implied odds of the actual event outcome. Gotcha.
>>1818076
what does an econometrics major do when he graduates? typical jobs?
>>1818114
bump. Tough time finding internships 3.5GPA Junior Univ Houston BS Econ
Yeah I bet five bucks on Trump to win way before he should have because of a meme I made of with my roommates
We now live in a meme.
>>1818735
>t. brainlet
I'm betting on a 25% increase now that Trump lasts til end of 2017 and a 53% increase that he lasts til end of 2018.
OP as for strategy, I go to PredictIt's "Closing Soon" pages, find the ones that are like 96+% and make a 4% increase in a couple of hours/days. Using multiple accounts, I can bet as much as I want. And I can repeat this as much as I want since anything with that high of a percentage is usually in the bag. The downside is that if I lose, I lose the whole thing.
>>1819963
How is this a bet? Like historically how many presidents didnt last the term ?
>>1817063
How much were your shares?
>>1820003
>Like historically how many presidents didnt last the term ?
One I think, and that's only because he died.
>>1820168
Maybe 20 shares. I only made a few bucks, but since my initial investment was so low, I made over 10%.
>>1820527
I meant how much did the shares cost? Making $0.05/share is a shit ton if shares were only a few cents each, but nothing at all if they were a few dollars.