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online sports betting

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convince me why it is not a good idea to gamble*

*i am playing with 15$
*sports betting
Why being infatuated with Gambling and Sports is more nefarious than being hooked on heroin:

already lost 2/3 of it, waiting for the Espanyol game; moreno to score and Espanyol to win on 4.4.
thanks, i dig that.
betting != gambling
if you are betting on mainstream then 99% of the time it's -ev.
learn how to handicap
do research
learn to shop for best line
money management
never bet based on emotions
google matched betting

it needs a bigger bankroll than $15, but if you have a few $100s, you can make guaranteed returns by taking 70-80% of bookmakers special offers. i don't know if these apply to the USA though.

there are several decent blogs which guide you step by step. if you have the time, you can make about £5-6000 per year. (c. $8000)
this and-
only do singles
never cash out
use something like kelly criterion to place bets evenly
you just donk accounts making pennies, not worth it unless you are an absolute spewmonkey at sportsbetting.
I have always done split main cash into pieces and bet over time; eliminates the emotions because it is a system.

Also trying to aim for the same estimated price; say all three of the 5$ bets go for a 4.0 ratio bet.

Although i do combined bets to reach for the targeted price.

Don't have any stories to tell over this; made a thousand during Euro2016; thanks Griezmann.

Can't wrap my head around why a bet should be more valued than any other at times; dark times...
Thinking of getting back into team betting, how's my strategy?
1. Put $10 on the worst teams that are playing
2. Put $50 on 1-2 of the best teams so that you guarantee some winnings
3. there's a good chance that 1-2 of the worst teams are gonna win so you get large returns that will cover all of your loses
4. If you're lucky then there's even more upset and >2 worst teams win so you get even more
So betting without thinking basically?
well you can enhance the strategy by researching recent form of each team and adjusting your bet accordingly
Steve Fezzik, the only guy to win the Westgate Football Fantasy contest 2 times.

He does free picks on Youtube every other day. Of course he also has other picks that cost money, but it's nice to listen to how he thinks.

You should just do this and not your silly system, I don't mean to put you down but it won't work. 98% of sports betters are long term unprofitable. The people that are profitable but a lot of work in, understand the numbers, run models etc.. By your use of $ I'm gonna assume you have limited bookmaker access (Bovada, 5dimes etc..?) these books are sharp (in a non-market forced way like asians, SBO, Pinnacle etc..), they have heavy vig and are super hard to beat, because the US online sports betting industry is so non-existent and dodgy they can afford to have high vig.
what you have to appreciate is your system doesn't really interact with each other, without good sports betting knowledge it's just a series of -ev bets and bookmakers will love you for it.
And when it comes to research it has to go a lot further than anything that is easily available to you and the bookmaker.
the books youre talking about dont have high vig, you literally dont know what you're talking about.

are you one of those people that watch only u15 vietnamese water polo? because thats a massive meme and untrue
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betting on elections is actually a good thing and a way to make a ton of money
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>months ago

>bet on John Dodson to beat John Lineker
>bet on Tamdan McCrory to beat Nate Marquardt

>both lose

>bet on Tim Kennedy to beat Kelvin Gastelum
>Kennedy gets TKO'd

>forgot to bet on Trump for the election
This is relatable.

I bet on Nunes submitting Rousey, lost.

Bet on Cruz to win over decision, lost.

Although i was correct with the Diaz pick over Mcgregor on the 1st game and Holm beating Ronda plus Tate beating Holm.
claiming back the thread;

> lost the initial 15$
> deposit 10$ more
> won the initial 15$ back
> moreno actually scored but espanyol didn't win btw
> can't decide if i should wait for tomorrows games or go NBA
5.6% for football on Bovada, that's high, you should really be quiet when you clearly have no idea, go back to your NFL multis pls.
only if your retarded
I did this last week Op, thought my tactic of betting on a team winning on the 90th minute would work every time, started with 200,, got up to 400, withdraw 200, then lost 200 on one match. Its gambling. Its not worth the stress.
Yeah that is gambling
You know what the odds for Real Madrid where before the game?
I wrote an algorythm which 'predicts' the correct team, based on standings, score, last match, home advantage etc.

Currently testing since mid december, haven't actually gambled. And fictively i'm up. So if that goes good i'll invest 1k into it next month.

Might be a waste of money and time though
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I've bet on sports, mostly football, for years.

Betfair p&l for proof, one of many accounts.

It's all about value. For example >>1715101 is a total waste of money, as for the most part is >>1715112 (bookmakers and syndicates will have better algos than you the vast majority of the time).
Looks good, are you making a profit in general? Or playing the elusive 98% for gambling in the end?

Also if i'm right 80% of the time i make a profit. So it may have some errors, and can improve also every weekend. We'll see

Premier League stats for last season

Number of matches: 378
x times red: 55 ( 14,55% )
x times 5 or more yellow: 108 ( 28,57% )
Home team won: 156 ( 41,27% )
Away team won: 116 ( 30,69% )
x times draw: 106 ( 28,04% )
x times 0 - 0 : 31 ( 8,2% )
x times 0 - 1 : 33 ( 8,73% )
x times 0 - 2 : 9 ( 2,38% )
x times 0 - 3 : 14 ( 3,7% )
x times 0 - 4 : 3 ( 0,79% )
x times 1 - 0 : 36 ( 9,52% )
x times 1 - 1 : 41 ( 10,85% )
x times 1 - 2 : 28 ( 7,41% )
x times 1 - 3 : 11 ( 2,91% )
x times 1 - 4 : 3 ( 0,79% )
x times 2 - 0 : 27 ( 7,14% )
x times 2 - 1 : 25 ( 6,61% )
x times 2 - 2 : 29 ( 7,67% )
x times -3.5 goals: 262 ( 69,31% )
x times +3.5 goals: 116 ( 30,69% )

1-1 is the most dominant score in all leagues.
football matches are statistically a coin toss at the halfway point of the series. you'll only be able to predict the correct team while a statistically significant win/loss difference exists between the teams. once all the shite teams lose then you're just betting on red or black.
Yes, I bet solely for profit, I don't find it very enjoyable and I'm long past the adrenaline rush you get from it. I attached the screencap for proof senpai.
Nice, might just've been a good month though.
But i wonder, what's your tactic for example on betting on Motherwell U20 - Rangers U20

That's pure luck, no?
That's over 3 months, you can't look back any further w/o requesting spready over email, etc. Info bet - think MWell had first team help, Rangers normally do but were playing kids instead, ergo the prices based off league table are wrong, MWell had a much stronger side out. Teams posted on twitter about 20 mins before KO for Scottish youth so you have to lurk and smack asap as prices will be 'correct' by kickoff.
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Use Betfair as an example as anyone who bets semi-seriously knows that the Betfair Exchange is the hardest place to profit as it's punter vs punter, not a sportsbook like bet365, paddy power, and so on where you could train a monkey to make money, but they limit you if you make too much. I'm a student so don't do it as much as I used to so not a great many bets to looks at unfortunately, but posted them so people wouldn't accuse of photoshop or inspect element.

Here's total across 1000+ markets (bets)
Holy fuck, that's awesome. Betfair isn't available here (Belgium). I'm using Unibet.

What would be your number one tip to do in order to bet more accurate?
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I wouldn't use betfair. Use all 'normal' bookies, like unibet (they have skins, which are the same, such as 888, and more which I forget). Try to look into info similar to the example I posted with Scot youth, but in all honestly there's so many doing it these days its arguably not worth it.

Attached is good advice from /bet/ (RIP).

SP if you are still lurking pls post ;_;
Great, thanks
It's good you're backtesting your model and not diving in. From your POV I'd recommend applying your model to the lowest level available to bet on unibet. If it spits out some interesting results then try to find some reasoning as to why there may be some anomolies - maybe the star striker is injured.

Unibet have lots of markets to prestake, I've bet on lower league Norway in the past. Mainstream leagues are saturated as fuck and there's really no edge to be made imo.

Bet pennies at first then increase your stakes if/when you're confident. 99% of gamblers lose money, so even breaking even is shrewd. Gl anon!
thanks, good tips. I've found that the lower leagues just tend to be more unpredictable because of lack of quality.

Might be different if you actually research each match, ofcourse.
if you didn't win 800 pounds, you'd have made literally no profit from all those losses

can you really say this is safe?
Unpredictable = edge = profit. Market unpredictability is what you want.

I don't follow you
you won 799 pounds, if you lost that one, you'd have been on a massive loss..
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Total p/l was 6.9k for that period, 17k >>1715163 total, and the win was £800 (I staked £500). This is also on BFex which is the hardest place to profit.

I could have posted something like pic attached of Coral bets from yesterday but that's not reliable or useful in the slightest.
i want to get into this but man it looks like a lot of work

do you see how teams feel etc before they go out?
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Pic attached was reasoning for this bet. It's essentially a full time job if you want to make money sure. These gambling firms make literally billions from 99% of people who 'fancy' a team, most are total mugs.
holy balloons how much time do you usually spend per day when you're about to bet on a team?
I'm a student and most bookmaker accounts (bet365, paddy power, and so on) have limited me. I have this Coral account from my friend. So combined with uni work and social life I really don't have much time to do it, but when I do I'll spend the whole day in front of my computer talking with friends/contacts who do it full time. Summer holidays are good if I'm not travelling or whatever. A lot of google translate lel
for the anon who asked the odds for Real Madrid game; it was stupid low.

However, Arsenal is playing Preston in a cup game and conceded a goal in the first half. It is around 30th min of the game and the odds are for Arsenal to win are 2.0 where i play.
wtf i love heroin now
Here's the invite for the official /biz/discord if anyone's interested.

Arsenal came to win after 1-0 in the second half; 1-2.
Good day today (double up with 1.01's to avoid being limited)
Thread posts: 53
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