I have a ton of cash. I want to invest but I know stocks are

File: IMG_0083.png (43KB, 613x481px) Image search: [Google]

43KB, 613x481px

>I know what _____ will ____ at _____ date.


No you don't.


What's your time horizon?
Pic very related

>>1649522
Like 5-20 years.

Hence my focus on commodity stocks and not companies

>>1649464
>50% to 100% return in a year
>boring

wew lad okey dokey . So sorry to bore you, nice millenial sir. You're clearly very knowledgeable

>>1649533
Dude it's a one-time bet. The petroleum industry especially in the us is producing way more supply than demand can absorb.

The fracking boom upset the market. I'm I fucking retarded? Does oil really replenish it'self because God wills it? Did Jesus invent fracking to bring political ties for the US closer to Israel?

I am not sure. So I think petroleum is going up.

>>1649542
>am I retarded
Yes


Allocate based on conventional wisdom and add some XLE if you want.

You're failing to discern the difference between speculating and investing. Even if your bet pays off, you will have taken an unreasonable amount of risk. You're not George Soros bro.

>>1649542
>Dude it's a one-time bet
Wat. So you're going to invest everything in one position that will pay off when?

What you fail to understand is that the market is constantly responding to demand conditions and changes.
>Oil price high
new fracking projects start
>Oil price low
fracking projects cancelled

There's Alaska drilling changing too and OPEC imports changing and a million other things. Shit is more complicated than an uneducated stoned neckbeard should try to understand with a huge "one-time bet".

Ur fucked up bro. Get help

>>1649605
Haha okay then I wait it out and ride the storm. Crude oil will never be cheaper than now. Tech might bounce the price around but it will never refill depleted plays.

Demand for oil is only elastic to a certian point. Then the price comes up.

>>1649464
>Greyhound
>not publically traded
Their parent is though, so what's the problem?

>>1649624
You are a true hero. Thanks

>>1649636
Don't know if there's an ADR though, so unless you're a Brit, you'll have to be able to trade on LON.
Even then, you'd most likely be stuck trading CFD's, unless you enjoy getting bent over on taxes.

What i really don't get is how you think 50-100% gains in a year is boring, yet you think you'll do great with investing in Greyhound.

Plus if you believe that oil prices will go up (as do i, for a bit), then wouldn't that negatively affect Greyhound, because they'll have to pay more for gas?

And i believe that you're massively overestimating how much the "the new non-middle class" will be using Greyhound buses, unless they get an exclusive bussing license for like every city in America

So i'm not seeing how you feel that investing Greyhound is going to give you way better than 50-100% (or even 20%), especially if oil prices go up. I just don't get your logic man.

Care to explain?

Oh and your time horizon is waaaaaaaay too long for commodities man. There's way too much stuff that can happen that will completely throw you off.

Wars can start, Saudi can go bankrupt, Trump can flood the market with oil cuz muh MAGA, liberals may make using gas cars illegal or force everyone to use electric etc etc etc

Waaaaay too many possible factors man to be putting all your chips into one basket. This isn't something like VR or technology based that has a more predictable (but still not completely predictable) curve. You're dealing with international markets that can be turned upside down with a single tweet.

>>1649613
If was a betting man I would say so too. I think what happened was some demand destruction with oil going well over $100 and then latent rigs going crazy in NA along with the frack boom combined with the Sauds not being able to halt full on production because of their water injection programs. A lot of factors and throw in the AGW (hydro)carbon taxation meme from here on out. The only way I could see it going much cheaper would be a massive depopulation of humans through some mechanism like nuke war or plague. I forsee major oscillations from here on to the end of the 21st century when most fossil fuels will be depleted into negative EROEI and modern industrial civilization as we know it ceases and something else moves forward - with a lot less people. Who really knows though? A bit of diversity is good unless you can afford big losses in one sector.

>>1649712
Its just the investments in crude and shale oil and agricultural commodities I expect to be very profitable in the short term. Once it's business as usual again Ill sell but growth of this industry will be unremarkble.

Greyhound or other inferior goods I see as a long term investment for when things get shitty in 20-40 years.
>>1649718

I would agree with you with anything besides basic commodities. Oil is simply too important to the world economy and there is always demand for grain and I feel they are undervalued right now.

>>1649811
I considered the idea that society will collapse with the deleption of petroleum but I think market forces will find path forward. Coal gasification, thermal depolyermization, we have fucktons of the shitty tar sands and shale left. New nuclear energy projects. Electric cars. There will be a shift in what technology is reliant on oil and demand will change.

Whats shitty is we will have to wait until gas prices are stupid expensive.

Itll probably be really ugly for a while, if there is depopulation itll be because nobody can afford to have kids.