Online sports betting

>>1646005
I will tell you the secret to my success, because you will never be dedicated enough to replicate - and if you do; you deserve the dough that follows... Half Kelly and machine learning.

>>1646040
Yes man half kelly would suggest bet 15 from 100. Its close to what i use you can adjust if u wana push ur luck in the beggining or if you wana be more safe.

What are your numbers how are you doing

What is half Kelly since you're talking soccer I'm assuming you're from England and would prolly know about cricket bets, "I know cricket" and see there's a huge betting market here where I'm from.

>>1646005
>I start with 100. Bet 20 on low odds like 1.15 - 1.30 and profit around 5 on every success, doing this most of the day and aim to profit around 40-50 a day. Sure there are losses every now and then but you can easily recover. And mostly bet on goals , like over 0,5 goals etc, so when 1 goal is scored the money is already in the account. Or bet that the first half will be draw or 0-0 and when 20-30 minutes pass u can cash out earlier and take the money

You are going to lose money! Believe me.
Low odds almost never have value.
Live odds almost never have value.

Betting on low odds is like playing roulette and bet on black/red and increase your stake with every loss.

Let's take 1.30 for example. Which is around 75% chance of winning.
The problem is that bookies already included their margin. The real chance of winning is 70% which means odds of 1.43.
So how are you going to profit in the long run if the odds are against you? You can't recover. Look at the odds for which team is going to kick off, a coin flip, a 50/50 chance. What are the odds? Less than 2. No matter what the bookie profits.

>>1646080
I get you man i used to play on odds over 2.00 for years and it does give outcome in the long run but i am not betting on favorites to win am betting on goals so in a game u study and see its probable to go over 2.5 i play over 0,5. Or when a team more likely to win i play win and draw as resaults to be safe

>>1646080
This is the truth, OP.

Only data science solves this, and Kelly will exploit the odds difference to your advantage. I will not give you more clues..

>>1646094
It makes no difference on the long run if you can't filter the odds without value.
Most of the guys I know who make profit with betting play AHC near a 50/50 chance. Odds between 1.85 - 2.15.

Another thing I want you to think about is the following.
You are risking 100% of your stake for a return of what? Maybe 10% on average?

>>1646117
AHC would be a good way to go , or corners i guess that are always around that margin 1.85 - 2.15
i might consider changing tactic, keep the half kelly bet but go for higher odds

>>1646591

The most important thing is to find a system (betting method and analysis) where you have a steady hit ratio higher than the offered odds. So your average hit rate (50% for example) should be higher than your average played odds (higher than 2).

As soon as you manage to do that you can start to bet money and think about your money management and what stakes to bet.

You really need to do your research because there are a few factors I'm sure you did not consider.
For example if you are going to bet on opening odds, dropping odds minutes before the game starts.
A lot of bookies are going to limit you as soon as you are winnig big.
Every league has its own 'rules'. For example lower leagues in Italy tend to 'fix' games at end of the season, this means two teams play a tie if they are in a comfortable position, both teams won't risk anything.

>>1646824
Yes i have to find the correct formula , the corrent bank managment is easy to follow as long as u dont get greedy.

As for the picks the regular study of the games has to happen man, form,injuries,weather... and then go for the pick, either ahc , corners , or goals

why not find 2 different bookies,
make sure that betting an offer at one and the other bookie for the opposite turns out a net win in any case.
this seems like the easiest trick in the book to me(but i'm an outsider)

>>1646957
Yeah you'll net about £800 max doing that.

>>1646005

Lol funny guy you

>>1646957
This used to be a solid method once now with these big companies u will have to grind markets all day to find matching odds like that before they fix them, and also u will have to deposit a lot of money in a lot different bookies to be able to do this and thats also difficult

Bump for interest

>>1648159
I thought he was talking about making use of bookmakers special offers (like first time offers) but yeah arbitage full time still possible but bookies can close or restrict if you are cross profiting. Stick to Asians and exchanges and you should be good.

Bump

made 2 bets last night 1.85 and 2.05 odds
bet 15 got back 28,5 slowly building up my wallet so i can increase my bet amounts

>>1646040
you've not given anything to replicate other than half kelly bet sizing (which is fairly standard in finance) - machine learning is a massive area

>>1646957
it is actually better to not hedge the offers (over a large sample) as hedging digs into your profits

obvs without it you experience much more variance in your returns

>>1646005
why do you do these bets? why do you think they are +EV? Why do you think you would make money in the long run?

>>1650542
but that involves knowing which of the two bets is the smart one

>>1650613
pretty much all bookmakers give +ev prices, they don't do it intentional but it's impossible for a bookmaker to make every single price given -ev, there is no absolute system and things change all the time, but if you can adapt, have good and meaningful analysis and price hunting you can profit long term, keeping accounts open or getting new ones is another problem.

>>1650620
and how do you figure out what bets are +EV?

>>1650623
well unlike something like poker which has GTO calculations etc.. there is no absolute system, but understanding how bookmakers choose initial prices helps, which is different for different sports. The main rule of thumb is knowing something the bookmaker doesn't know, or having a system that works to a greater accuracy than theirs, you will have a short period of time to act on this price before either the market or the bookmaker fixes this. An example I distinctly remember was Margate were playing in the cup against a team who I have forgotten but quickly information came on social media key members of team had illness from food, couldn't play, so within minutes the price went from them losing from about 2.2 to about 1.7. Very simple example but you get the idea.

>>1650615
no it doesn't, it changes nothing aside from removing the cost of hedging and increasing your variance - neither bet has to be the smart one whether you're hedging or not... your EV comes from the offer