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Anonymous
Econometrics and Bitcoin Prices 2016-10-26 03:30:32 Post No. 1587504
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Econometrics and Bitcoin Prices 2016-10-26 03:30:32 Post No. 1587504
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Hello /biz/
I'm writing my senior economics thesis on the correlation between BTC prices and other asset classes. Obviously BTC price is my response variable but I wanted to see what you all recommend I use for my independent variables. I'm thinking of using the SPY price data, reserve currencies, some measure of interest rate on short term debt (perhaps tbill prices or the LIBOR rate), and then some other commodity like gold or oil... do you guys have any tips or advice on what other assets to track? Any tips on data management (IE, price data on SPY is easiest to look at at close price but trade days only occur M-F so should I limit BTC prices to M-F online). Thanks in advance for any help.
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>>1587504
Normally bitcoin works like metals, it goes up when dollar goes down. but recently it did not. therefore i think there are some other forcer governing bitcoin. I belive its chinease especulation, since chine is still the biggest player in the bitcoin market. i belive china owns 95% of each bitcoin in the world. Or i can be wrong : the map i used shows me where the bitcoin is traded, by that it can only tell me in all trades done in the world 95% of them happen in chinease territory. check the map for yourself : http://fiatleak.com/. That can be lower fees or a major chinease investment. Either way, if chinese government wants to hold all that bitcoin they will get all bitcoin users by the balls.
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>>1587504
Your data is likely going to be very messy, as cryptocurrencies are speculation vehicles instead of sound investments.
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>>1587789
afaik china has a lot of mining farms because of the cheap price of electricity. Recent tax policies (the limitation of the amount of yuans allowed to be exchanged for USD) and bad news for the chinese economy created a surge of interest in bitcoin in China.
Also OP, in which university do you study and when is your thesis due? I'm also interested in bitcoin/eth for my paper in social anthropology
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>>1587812
I'd rather not name my uni but my thesis is due at the end of november
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>>1587504
Maybe there is a significant correlation to some asset class but probably just by chance (p-hacking).
Of course, BTC moves with certain FX pairs since they determine BTC's price and if important FX pairs move then BTC has some reaction to it.
Just think who trades BTC. Why would there be any "smart" logical correlation to anything?? E.g. very few people trade BTC with Oil, Gold, Stock market, Macro factors etc. in mind. There are almost smart money players at work that enter trades based on relative BTC value. Right now BTC is way too tiny for them.
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>>1587504
>tumblr pic
sage thread
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>>1587504
Currency is almost always following a random walk. You are either going to experience ACF or PACF in your error term, or a very weak power because you have to include too many variables.
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