Financial Crisis thread

>>1549455
There will never be another financial crisis like 2008 or the dotcom bubble. Financial crises stem from an irrational response to market conditions which precipitates a positive feedback loop. Machines have taken over the majority of trading volume since 2009. They don't respond irrationally: when the price is cheap they buy, when the price is expensive they sell. It doesn't matter what the security's long-term uncertainty is because they only need the price to remain close to constant for the next 30 seconds.

Consider the following:
What happened after Brexit?
What happened after the Chinese Stock market crash?
What happened after the US government shutdown?
What happened after the greek debt crisis?
What happened after the 2011 flash crash?

The answer: a ~10% slip followed by a steady recovery. If you were hoping for something big, you're going to be waiting forever.

>>1549474
How drastic has been the shift to computers in trading? I haven't heard much about this.

The euro is gonna collapse first, or the yen.

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>>1549491
I could see the euro collapsing, but how would the Yen collapse? Isn't it a global safe haven, which is why the BoJ keeps getting fucked when they try to raise inflation?

German housing market is a huge bubble. You need a little drop in the economic situation and the housing market will at least lose 30% of it's worth at least in the bigger cities.

>>1549495
I don't really know, i'm tired and just wanted to start some thread of answers that might give me knowledge.
I do know for a fact that japan's economy is gonna collapse the second interest rates go above 2%

>>1549497
Isn't -every- housing market essentially a bubble at this point? Or is it especially bad in Germany because of the refugees and larger population, in contrast with other nations like England or Australia.

That being said, is the China housing bubble a meme as well? That's bound to burst at some point, is it not?

>>1549498
For sure, but for me I always saw deflation as a bigger threat to the Yen than inflation. I think that once interest rates go above 2%, the situation isn't going to be something like Weimar Germany, but probably something more along the lines of the Great Depression, with a contraction in the money supply of 1/3 and a general lack of credit.

In which case, Japan is fucked.

>>1549505
If the rates go up they can't pay the interest anymore, it goes above all tax revenue, from there i don't know what happens.

>>1549497
It's not really a bubble. Sure price and value of most houses have shifted and are overrated, but there is enough money in the game and unless a huge part of the baby boomers is seeking to sell their houses und prepares to move into the cities I see no hope in rural areas.
Cities will be overrated for the next 20something years.

>>1549508
I've heard some people say that Japan will be able to keep financing its debt because of its massive trade surplus, but even then with the expected dramatic loss in population you'd probably see the trade surplus shrink dramatically in the next few decades, if not sooner

IMO Japan really needs to get its shit together. State-enforced breeding programs and tax cuts for married people or something along those lines. I'd rather not see the third largest economy in the world fall apart.

>>1549513
How ossified is their economy? I have no idea, i'm under the impression their government taxes and regulates all aspects of life, i wonder what divorce laws are like there.

>>1549522
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Njp8bKpi-vg

This is a very informative video that gave me most of my knowledge on Japan.

I'm honestly not sure. At times, I lean towards saying that it's like Europe in terms of being higher taxed and higher regulated than the United States, but on the other hand, Japan isn't necessarily socialist, as corporations are emphasized in this system. But it's not state capitalist either. I'd have to read more into the subject to give you a definitive answer.

>>1549524
>that video

So you know a little less than me.
Here's my leg up on you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mh5LY4Mz15o

>>1549526
I mean, that's not the only source of information I have for Japan's economy. Here are some links i've used in the past:
http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=9404
http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2015/10/japan_needs_aus.html
http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=28030
http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2016/05/japans_catastro.html

I'm mostly interested in monetary policy since, generally speaking, most if not all major recessions can be tracked through certain monetary phenomena.

Interesting video on Japan, I like it.

>>1549533
Thanks for the links. Will read eventually.

>>1549474
>when the price is cheap they buy

there's that magical money tree again