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Today's BOJ announcement

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Thread replies: 13
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Thoughts on the announcement by the Bank of Japan today?

Reaction seems mixed, some commentators seem to think it's Do Nothing: The Economic Plan, others think they have a shot so long as they can control the yield curve.

Japan's economy has shit the bed long enough, it'd be nice to see a return to form.

Articles:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-21/quicktake-q-a-what-s-a-yield-curve-and-why-s-boj-targeting-it

http://www.wsj.com/articles/bank-of-japan-sends-mixed-signals-with-new-approach-1474452651

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-21/bank-japan-maintains-bond-buying-pace-yield-curve-control-leaves-rates-unchanged-off

Any thoughts?
>>
>>1516066
Meaningless.

Japan is as economically "free" as China tbqh.

How is announcing you will control bond rates a market-oriented move?
>>
>>1516066
>Thoughts on the announcement by the Bank of Japan today?
Neutral. I think the market initially took it as a small positive, but once they dug further into it... they saw that it was just more words.

>Reaction seems mixed, some commentators seem to think it's Do Nothing: The Economic Plan,
It is the "Words over Actions" """""plan""""".

>others think they have a shot so long as they can control the yield curve.
They can. But as we have already seen that is not enough. Furthermore the negative effect of NIRP already is ingrained in the banking system.

>Japan's economy has shit the bed long enough, it'd be nice to see a return to form.
It did alright in 2013 and 2015. But that was because the yen depreciated enormously and the US economy imported a ton during those years.

>Any thoughts?
More words. Not actions.

Japan is probably going into another recession Q3-Q4.
The only reason they even are growing (barely) right now is because Chinese want to get money out of their country.
The PBoC should just let the currency depreciate so they can crash Japan's economy.
>>
>>1516273
Yeah the market seems to have had an initial "oh great" followed up "wait...what are you actually doing?"

http://www.wsj.com/articles/japans-10-year-bond-yield-entered-positive-territory-after-boj-decision-1474435050

>Japan is probably going into another recession Q3-Q4.

How come? Is there nothing they can do to reinflate the economy?
>>
>>1516066
beginning of the end
who's gonna buy bonds when the government is using bonds to buy stocks?
>>
>>1516304
It was an initial reaction probably started by government/central bank money buying market ETFs. Japan's government is so far deep in their stock market that it makes China look like a free market.

Then the bears (realists) realized they had some retards buying too much and the market sold off.

10 year is back to where it was.

Essentially nothing happened.

But the Fed didn't raise so Yen is going >100.

>is their nothing they can do to reinflate it
Oh yes there is. Infinite government money and ZIRP have brought Japan back to 2008 levels in constant yen.

But ask yourself at what cost. Everything has a cost.
>>
>>1516304
>How come?

No such thing as a free lunch.

Abe/Kuroda sacrificied long-term economics for short-term political gain.

All they wanted was to give Abe a constitutional amendment to remilitarize.

That was the missing third arrow.
>>
>>1516568
Your words, they are codes
>>
>>1517961
What do you want me to explain?
>>
>>1517961
>>How come?
Long story short, Japan frontloaded its growth under Abe.

>No such thing as a free lunch.
When government spends money/manipulates the market/lowers interest rates below the natural rate: it has negative side effects. Debt has to be repaid. Massive Intervention generally creates inefficient markets. Loose monetary policy leads to low returns in pensions.

>Abe/Kuroda sacrificied long-term economics for short-term political gain.
They frontloaded spending to boost popularity to get large electoral majorities.
>All they wanted was to give Abe a constitutional amendment to remilitarize.
Abe's book is clear that the remilitarization of Japan and reinterpretation of her glorious history is his main goal. Not the economic wellbeing of his people.

>That was the missing third arrow.
Abe's 3 arrows were his explanation for the economic programme he launched in 2012-2013 to make Japan great again.
1 low interest rates
2 massive fiscal spending
3 pro-growth reforms
He marketed it as a new strategy. It wasn't.

Koizumi, the 2001-2006 prime minister established this programme.

But, Abe never did the unpopular 3rd arrow reforms. If he had, he wouldn't have gotten reelected.

No. His real third arrow was the remilitarization of Japan. Like a dictator, he reinterpreted the Japanese constitution and now can invade any nation that he wants.

An amazing politician. But a subpar economist.
>>
>>1518496
I hope that explains everything to you>>1517961

AKA - Japan is headed for more stagnation
>>
>>1518503
Thank you, it does.
>>
>>1518503
So what's next for Japan now that Abe has shit the economic bed and his opposition is still weakened?
Thread posts: 13
Thread images: 1


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