S & P 500 overvalued?

>>1428770
>So is the S & P 500 overvalued?
no
If so by how much?
none
Why is it overvalued?
it isn't
What should we expect in the future?
for it to go up

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>>1428770
:/ My chart of it doesnt look quite so magical and dramatic.

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>>1428770

Thing is. Human progress is exponential.

If the SP500 reflects that, then it should also be exponential.

Short of society collapsing due to robots, then it should always go up.

But robots are a thing now, so buyer beware.

>>1428770 (OP)
Why you study such that here?
http://www.macrotrends.net/1324/s-p-500-earnings-history

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It's following a classic batman pattern which means it will start from a roof, and swoop downwards. Stay away from this stock.

>>1428902
Forgot to mention that I'm a fat middle aged man with a poor vocabulary who mentions his family a lot, so you can trust me. I'm a Technical Analysis expert.

Not going to pretend I've researched too much into this, but the debt levels for a lot of these companies are sky high due to buybacks. It seems like the general gameplan is to refinance with as cheap interest rates or just collapse

>>1428909
This is why I started this thread. Looking at current debt levels and recent changes in European and Chinese consumer markets should be enough to ask some legitimate questions about the index ' s valuation. Idk I'm prob just an idiot or I'm just not understanding something here.

>>1428919

The thing about the SP500 index is that it has moving goal posts. Companies that fail get delisted and replaced by those who succeed.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/022416/5-famous-companies-dropped-sp-500.asp

So it really depends.

>>1428770
It's only going up in value due to heavy inflation.

Everyone's just pretending like the inflation doesn't exist yet.

>>1428838
looks the same to me, anon. just flatter

>>1429342

Inflation rate for the US is 1%.

The SP500 is beating that by quit a bit now.

>>1429342
>Everyone's just pretending like the inflation doesn't exist yet
We're not pretending because it actually doesn't exist. Inflation is exactly where the Fed wants it to be: between 1-3%, which is the optimal level for GDP growth.

Stop. being. stupid.

>>1428902

I loled pretty hard at this. Good job

>>1429365
1%? where did you pull that number out of?

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>>1428872
Human progress, or just the fact that the global population is higher than ever?
>Many of the largest S&P companies are probably multi-nationals.
>And companies like Walmart benefit from being able to buy goods globally, taking advantage of exchange rates and lower wages in other countries

>>1429649
>http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/

Eat an entire bag of dicks for not doing your own research.

>>1428927
They are in a way buying high and selling low.

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>"IDS HABBEDING THE PRICE IS HIGH WHAT GOES UP MUST COME DOWN"

A large part of current price levels is simply due to central bank policies while some of it is from natural economic growth. It's a shitty enviorment to be investing in.

>>1429649
>>1429761
#rektimus maximus

>>1429799
what the fuck does the graph show?

>>1430283
If you don't understand a basic logarithmic graph the second you see it, you have no business being on this board.

>>1430540
Why logarithmic? As far as I can see u don't use logarithms to create these?

Low interest rates make equities the only game worth playing.

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>>1430283
>>1431991

>>1428770
Maybe.
>>1429799
What's hapbbening right now will keep happening forever...

The s&p is a larger index for some major stocks, most of which will get fucked in the event of. Major economic collapse. The s&p is 2x higher than it was before the 2008 bubble. There hasn't been a crash in about 7 years. Time to start shorting major stock exchanges? Maybe not just yet, but is it time to start thinking about hedging? Absolutely fucking yes

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>>1432122
Good luck on shorting s&p

>>1432122

So you're saying you can time the markets?

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One part of my consistently thinks that stocks are overvalued, but everytime I assess the situation, I cannot think of a better place to store my wealth long term than equities.

Cash is a medium of exchange and fiat is designed to inflate to incentivise spending.
Gold is a "store of value" and largely just a speculated upon commodity.

Equities represent businesses. They produce goods and services and provide them to the public. They are managed by people. They adapt, evolve. They generate returns and often share those returns with shareholders.

Frankly, I cannot think of a better place to invest long-term than a diverse mix of big, blue-chip multinationals. S&P500 and other global indexes meet that perfectly.

>>1429649
>>1429365
Yeah, and unemployment is down too, right :')

Yes S&P is overvalued

ZIRP/NIRP, QE, government buying up shit, companies not even making money still valued at billions

>>1428770
>So is the S & P 500 overvalued?
Yes, but not gonna stop any time soon.

>Why is it overvalued?
No other decent place to put money in other than the US. China is shit, Japan is less shit, EU is more shit, Britain is ok until the Brexit shit. The US economy is literally meme tier by now.

>What should we expect in the future?
Wait until after the election first.

>>1432122
Yeah you go ahead and short a market index on an election year. While you're at it, let me know how long the line is down at the unemployment office. Thanks.

>>1428770
Accounting for inflation, productivity, and typical historic growth, we would need to be a bit over 2500 right now to be at 2008 levels. I don't think SP500 is undervalued right now, but it's not at a level that could trigger a large recession.

Personally, I'm 80% stock right now but I'll dial down to 60% or so if we cross 2350.

>>1428770
the big retracements are pretty much always around 50% of value.

if your theory is correct expect somewhere around $1000

>>1428770

Unless the tech bubble 2.0 loses steam or we have another banking crisis, being contrarian now is foolish.

Nevertheless, more information is required in order to ascertain the exact moment of the impending correction.

If you think we're near the peak some cheap insurance would be the dec 16 1100 spx put for $70
It would trade for about $7,310 when the happening occurs for that sweet 11,800% gain

$70 for 6 months protection against major tail risk is not a bad deal.

>>1433900
>major tail risk
I'd call that something more than tail risk. A 50% decline in the S&P 500, in the next six months? No amount of "insurance" will wash away the blood if that actually happens.

>And it won't.

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>>1434716

>>1434729
Well, Mr. Meme, in the history of bear markets in the U.S. only two have ever exceeded 50%: the great crash of '29 (83.4%) and the 2008 (50.9%). No other bear market in history qualifies.

Now go find a funny picture to post so you can pretend to be involved in the discussion.

>>1428770
the most untrustworthy, tenuous, pessimistic bull market of all time?

it's like the markets are functioning in spite of everyone and their hearts and minds

>>1434751
>it's like the markets are functioning in spite of everyone and their hearts and minds
The truth is that the economy is actually doing really well still. Maybe not roaring and ballooning, but growing steadily and sustainably.

I think the "problem" is three-fold:

First, you have certain politicians and media outlets who constantly tell America that things are bad when they're not. Obviously they have their own agenda, and the facts don;t support them, but the drumbeat is relentless. And too many people are gullible and slurp it up.

Second, most of the people on this board are young, and aren't really in a position to take advantage of the economy's improvements. Plus, many were saddle with student loans, meaning they had less investable capital to take advantage.

Third, there are a lot of disgruntled third-world malcontents here. They hail from a variety of developing and backward countries, and they love to project their own misery onto other. 4chan can be a terrible echo chamber because there are many, many miserable people here.

But if you're a normal person with a normal financial situation, things are somewhere from pretty-good to awesome right now.

>>1434820
The economy in the United States is fine for the moment being. It's really just a cycle of rate raising honestly, except rates never really get raised. The cycle looks like:
1. Stock market starts looking healthy
>SP500 and Nasdaq are both up with bonds not looking terrible in terms of yield
2. Fed will threaten to raise rates
>"a rate hike is on the table for [whenever]"
3. Market makers "let some of the air out" of the markets to keep the Fed at bay
>"we've been long overdue for this sort of market correction and it's within out models"
4. The Fed backs off
>"inflation is where we want it to be and we're seeing strong jobs reports [or whatever repots they decide actually matter this week]

Post-QE economics is really just a back-and-forth between the Federal Reserve and Investment Banks, in my opinion.

>>1434985
I don't disagree at all with your assessment. I've noted the same thing myself.

I will say that I think the "harm" of rate hikes is a bit exaggerated by many market participants. When the Fed did finally implement its first rate hike a little while back, the markets threw a small tantrum ... and then continued marching upwards. I expect more of the same going forward, more or less.

>>1435001
That's because most traders are young kids (younger than 30) and know nothing but up-markets with either ZIRP or very close to it. The Fed Funds rate was above 15% back in the late 70s / early 80s and that was followed by close to 20 years of economic prosperity for both the banker as well as the plumber.

>>1428902
MY GAINS ARE DEEEEEAD

>>1435001
The market threw tantrum when there is even a slight hint of rate hike. Took them 3 mini tantrum and 3 delayed to settle things down.

>>1428770
think about it, we're still in a recession with poor growth all around, and yet the stock market is at an all-time high from a massive spike

S&P 500 is over-valued, and all the sheeple with their index funds don't even know they are feeding a bubble and it's going to blow up in their face

>>1435270
>we're still in a recession
That word has a definition, and no we're not in a recession or anything close to one. Please educate before making stupid statements.

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>>1428770
>So is the S & P 500 overvalued?

Nope, totally not overvalued