So are we in a fucking recession or not? I remember a week or

>>1064695
Yeah, lets take advice for goldman sachs. I'm sure they won't profit off our panic.

>>1064695
I have no idea.

I think every government is just cooking the books until WW3 which will correct the global economy.

This is the second of 3 quarters in a row needed to declare recession. Right around May/June it will become offical. I expect oil to be right around 23 a barrel at that point, and the dow to be flirting with low 16000

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I'm trying to buy a house this summer. Is the housing market about to crash?

>>1064773
It could. More likely to be a steady decline for the next 20 years though.

I don't know about the regional market you're in though. Depending on where you're living, it might do okay.

>>1064695
Nah, as soon as Obama leaves office the Fed will officially declare it a recession

>>1064777
Florida. Should I market time my house purchase, or pull the trigger in June and reach "JUST" status by July?

>>1064746
>This is the second of 3 quarters in a row needed to declare recession.
Wrong.

We're not even fucking close. We haven't even had one negative quarter, let alone two.

http://www.multpl.com/us-gdp-growth-rate/table/by-quarter

Next time, shut up when you don't know what you're talking about.

>>1064781
Honestly man I don't know enough about the Florida property market. All I know is we're heading into a cycle of credit contraction which bodes ill for access to mortgages and the rate of new first time buyers.

Couple that with an aging population, flat, or negative real wages etc.

The property market is kill for a generation at least.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation

>>1064804
Sheeeee-it, I'm just wondering if houses are going to get cheaper or not (i.e. if I will blow tens of thousands getting a mortgage "too soon").

In interest rate terms, if I can snag a decent one now maybe it will offset the housing implosion that cuts 25% off the value of my property and puts me upside down.

>>1064819
The best advice I can offer, is to do some solid homework on the market characteristics. Don't just rely on banks and mortgage brokers and so on.

Think hard about whether you need to have a property, and why. Crunch the numbers etc. and budget accordingly.

I'm really sorry I can't offer more advice, but you should be figuring this out yourself anyway. It's your money at the end of the day, and you owe it to yourself to make the right decisions with it.

>>1064830
I've been thinking about it for a while. I'm not planning to move, and renting property in Florida is a death march. Even a housing price downswing (presumably temporary) shouldn't impact me.

>unless I have to move for work spontaneously

>>1064819
Oh yeah, and also be very clear on the interest repayment terms of the mortgage.

>>1064695

Yes.

One third of citizens over the age of 18 with no military service are out of the labor force.

One half of veterans are out of the labor force.

For the two-thirds of the country in the labor force, wages are falling and inflation is rising.

We are kicking the can down the road until the collapse.

Things aren't getting better.

>>1064835
I'm quite dubious as to how much growth we actually saw in the post-crisis period too. The retracement of global trade (see: Baltic Dry Index) paints a murky picture of global economic growth.

It's entirely possible to hide the underlying economic shrinkage through statistical sleight of hand, and monetary/fiscal policy wizardry.

Ultimately I know a lot of anons might maintain economic growth has been present, and they might be right, I remain a skeptic.

>>1064847
Also, I would point out: The collapsing commodity prices suggests that global demand has fallen off a cliff.

Capital is in full on "risk-off" mode at least since '12, seeking safe havens everywhere, be it gold and silver, US dollars, T-bills, JPY, Cryptos. And we've witnessed unprecendented global asset price inflation via QE.

Our economy hasn't been restructured in the post-crisis years either. Capital was misallocated on a colossal scale to fund businesses which literally shilled the public.

It's turned me into a bitter old man at the age of 25.

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>>1064847

It's not just the data, either.

You can feel it in the air when you drive past run-down houses that used to be pristine.

You can see it in the eyes of folks shuffling through grocery stores and strip malls.

You can hear it at night when the police sirens wail and unseen interlopers scurry about.

It's like a pervasive sponge that sucks up all the hope you once had for a better future.

It's like being afraid all the time because the water is rising and you have nowhere to go.

It's like crying out to God, only to realize that God left you and everyone else behind long ago.

No chart can track the desperation that a man feels when he's knocked on every door for a job.

No spreadsheet can account for the hate fueling the protests of directionless youths.

No institution can breathe life back into the husks of millions of shriveled, dead dreams.

The train of prosperity is departing, and we cannot run fast enough to catch it.

>>1064888
It's possible the global economy did grow by the way.

If it did it is likely that the majority of the growth came out of the East.

The whole "economic rebound" meme in the West, was concentrated in a few specific sectors. (Financials, etc.)

Friendly reminder that almost all the global and national economic issues stem from double the world population in the last 45 years. If you somehow killed 3.7 billion people in a day we'd only return the 1970 world population. The survival of humanity wouldn't even be in question if you did it twice.

>>1064858
>It's turned me into a bitter old man at the age of 25.
I'm 26 and I must say, the next year doesn't get any better.

You do dump your fat girlfriend and fuck her skinnier, hotter friend with a pixie cut though. Good on you. Worst sex of your life, oddly enough, minus her ab gyrating mortal kombat finisher move at the end.

5/10, would not relive the age again.

>>1064888
I can see it in retail stores where the customers are bitter and angry, and the young cashiers that are students or whatever look practically shell shocked from being shoehorned between those customers and the shitty parasitic business model. I also see it where the fancy looking condo buildings are interspersed with shitty bungalows that haven't been touched since the seventies and look equally suitable for crack production.

Well see if yellen announces some more qe or if they're actually willing to allow markets to correct. Wall street is an addict at that final stage, where even feeding the addiction yields hardly anything anymore and we have marginal gains on one side and a steep downward spiral on the other. People have written about the bad money chasing out the good. The shitty part is there is value in markets, assets, labor and business but the attempt to hold everything up is compromising the integrity of the whole.

>>1064946
>Well see if yellen announces some more qe or if they're actually willing to allow markets to correct.
With the upcoming presidential election I'm certain she will do anything to at least make the economy appear to be in good shape. If the student loan, housing, auto and tech bubbles pop before Obama leaves office it's proof that the QE and low interest rates only made things worse and republicans will win the election.

>>1064934
>I'm 26 and I must say, the next year doesn't get any better.

>You do dump your fat girlfriend and fuck her skinnier, hotter friend with a pixie cut though. Good on you. Worst sex of your life, oddly enough, minus her ab gyrating mortal kombat finisher move at the end.

>5/10, would not relive the age again.

Kek. Cheers for the laugh m8. My humor has become decidedly dark in recent years, to the point where I find myself grinning at wagekek headlines and Barney Sandals support rallies devolving into commie pity-parties.

I suspect when things start to go down in flames I'll be dancing through the streets like Nero, laughing like a maniac, prior to getting brained by a group of Afghan gibs.

>>1064934
This is only true if you somehow managed to kill off the old and impoverished. Otherwise the world would go into apocalypse mode

>>1064746
uh, the dow is already upper 15000s. You think the dow will go up?

>>1064970
Also true. But substitute "impoverished" for "retarded".

If the dumbasses of the world take the reins, we're fucked. Might as well be another 600 year dark age.

>>1064695
been a depression since at least 2008. all the front line nominal bullshit like gdp and muh stocks have looked nice but reality is very different

>>1064773
mostly what the other guy said aside from a possible spike if substantial college loan changes come with the election

>>1064807
good post. stimulus doesn't fix broke systems

>>1064970
it really isn't true. global issues are just human nature in a chaotic universe. population >0 will have problems

>>1064975
Potentially, yes. It might head as low as 12700 in the interim

>>1064798
>not understanding the these numbers are constantly revised downward, sometimes dramatically

>Are we in a recession
No. Consumer spending has managed to keep our GDP afloat. Investment has increased as well.
>Are we heading towards a recession
We're on this ice. Much of what happens will depend on the global market. If China's economy fails, then yes we will head into a recession. If not, then we will continue with our recovery.

There will be QE 4 before the next election. Remember, Yellen is the bimbo that said there was no housing bubble before 08, just normal market forces. AND she advised against popping that bubble because "it would be too bumpy".

QE4 will come, maybe with negative interest rates.

If you go off the formal definition, then no, we're not in a recession, or even close to one

The reality is that we have been in a recession since 2002.

Take a step back and realize that the middle class has been shrinking in a linear progression since then.

The global stock market as a whole has been in a massive bubble for the past 15 years.

The stock market means nothing about the state of a recession.
GDP means nothing about the state of a recession

We have bubbles in everything from housing to education to the stock market to military and so on.

I'm not saying the crash is coming anytime soon, but this house of cards is going to be picked apart at some point. Maybe all at once or piece by piece.

>>1064999
>No. Consumer spending has managed to keep our GDP afloat. Investment has increased as well.

Look at the source of the consumer spending though? Welfare benefits, food stamps, student loans, car loans, other kinds of loans, and a handful of people in a bubble who are still relatively upbeat about the economy.

>>1065004
The thing about the housing "bubble" is true though. And don't get me wrong QE4 would be great but what makes you do certain it will happen given they just raised rates?

>>1065005
The word recession is totally meaningless if you define it like this

>>1065010
Hey dude. Spending is spending. If it has a good effect on GDP that's all I care about. The money paying off those loans just gets reinvested into new loans, and the cycle continues.

>>1065042
>the word unemployment is meaningless if you don't define it as the number of people claiming unemployment benefits

>>1064994
>not understanding that revisions are no where in the 3% range
>not understanding that we haven't had a negative GDP quarter since 2009
>not understanding anything
Stop. being. stupid.

>>1065053
Correct

>>1064695

Not yet. China is for sure but has enough BS to cover it for now. Russia and Venezuela are in complete recession. The rest of the world if limping along.

>>1065061
Bullshit. Defining it that way is meaningless because all the government has to do to fudge the numbers is kick some people off the program and bam, 2% unemployment on demand.

>>1065077
Well unemployment is meaningless if you don't include people who have given up looking for work.
>everyone stops looking for work
>BAM! 0% unemployment

I mean come on, how deluded do you have to be to believe unemployment is 5%?

Here, watch a video of people being offered a choice of a 10 oz silver bar, or a Hershey bar and EVERYONE picking the Hershey bar. That's where America is at.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bYhTFz_SGw0

>>1065089

The problem becomes how you define those not looking for work. A lot of people want to include everyone not looking for work, including house wives, the retired, and full college students not able or not looking for a job.

>>1065046
Keynesian detected. Watch what happens when the credit markets tighten (which is already happening). Consumption driven by government buoyed malivestment is going to drop off a fucking cliff.

Unless we just forgive the loans. But when have we ever forgiven loans in modern history without trying gunboat diplomacy, heavy-handed "scorched earth" tactics (see: Venezuela currently), productive asset strip-mining (Greece), or war (WW1/WW2).

>>1065092
But unemployment isn't a measure of those looking for work, it's a measure of those not employed. It is fairly straightforward- the proportion of people who answer 'no' to the question 'are you employed?' are the unemployed.

>>1065098

That isn't an accurate way to show how healthy the economy is in terms of employed vs unemployed. The fully retired and stay-at-home parents aren't looking to work and can skew the numbers of in a major way. Stay-at-home parents alone can take a healthy looking economy with 6% unemployment to 8% easily if you count them.

>>1065107
So you take the unemployment figures restricted to the non-retired & non-stay-at-home-parent population. No need to muddy the waters with a bunch of ambiguous bullshit and redefining straightforward words an phrases.

>>1065107

So what about healthy working age men? Why are they suddenly not counted in the unemployment figures because they stopped looking for work after 30 months?
Why is the labor participation rate for men aged between 24-50 the lowest it's ever been in US history?
What about seniors 55+ coming out of retirement or semi-retirement to work again. Would you consider these all signs of a healthy economy?

>>1065116
There is a very real need when you're trying to fudge the unemployment numbers to present a faux recovery.

>>1065122
This is true, and that alone is worrying as fuck.

>>1064695
7 years of Fed support buying at $85 billion a month and they supported foreign banks too. The level of the collapse is being artificially propped by tax dollars. If the US fails at this point the financial world ends.

>>1064695
dude it's way worse than a fucking recession. Do you realize that the US gov't printed trillions of dollars out of thin air? where do you think that money came from? no where, that's where. all we did was kick the can down the road. Real unemployment/underemployment is sky high. the crash hasn't even started but when it comes it's gonna nut hard

>>1064773
dude the housing market is still proped up with printed money. wait till after the crash when all the housing prices realign with the real market rate

>>1065157

This is true if you look at the money supply figures from the Fed. Further to this, I would point out to /biz/ that printing trillions of dollars and debasing the currency does nothing except water down existing savings. In essence this is theft of stored wealth.

>>1064695
a very obvious bubble popped in China in August, we are at the end of a long bull market and the oil prices have dropped

that's it, unless pension funds and consumer banks were stupid enough to put all their money into this bubble and are currently hiding their massive losses, we're fine

>>1065189
Hopefully no exposure to Europe too. I assume you're 'Murican?

When Joe Schmoes like us are aware of how fucked everything is, you know we're proper fucked.

>>1065157
>>1065187

You're both confirmed for not having any understanding of monetary economics.

>>1065294

>"You're wrong and I know why, I just can't be bothered telling you"

What is this, fucking 5th grade?

Lol @ this post. Just because volatility is high and oil is in a glut doesn't mean the whole economy is in a recession. I mean, we've had a ridiculous bull market for the last 6 years, why does this surprise any of you? I understand your fantasy of doomsday is just a means to fulfill your shitty lives, but things aren't that bad. Go outside and get off zero hedge faggots.

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Next recession will happen mid to late 2017. Have it on good authority from numerous hedge fund / bankers

>>1065346
My fucking dad reads zero hedge and will not shut the fuck up about it. I wan to throw his fucking iPad out the window every time he plays that bullshit

>>1065346

The bull market is off the back of trillions of dollars of phony money being pumped into the market by the fed. No real jobs have been created so all you have is a credit crisis, student loan crisis, a liquidity bubble, depression era levels of real unemployment and stagnant wages.

No one gives a shitty about Obama's doctored economy figures. QE4 is coming and 2017 is going to be a complete shitshow.

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>>1065294
Fed. Reserve M0

>>1065294
Defined by the Fed Reserve as:

M0: The total of all physical currency including coinage. M0 = Federal Reserve Notes + US Notes + Coins. It is not relevant whether the currency is held inside or outside of the private banking system as reserves.

>>1065361
Very alarmist, I agree. But it's an alternative source of information. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

>>1065294
That shows currency debasement, or intent to debase. Though you're right that I was wrong about the guy's specific post (just reread it.)

Mortgage markets aren't buoyed by money printing as he said. They're buoyed by expanding the debt, which is the higher order monetary aggregates. So I'm half right, and half wrong.

>>1065346
>I mean, we've had a ridiculous bull market for the last 6 years, why does this surprise any of you?

You mean the one that was propped up entirely by QEs? It hasn't done a whole lot for anyone outside of wallstreet.

>>1064777
What leads you to believe that there will be such a dramatic and long term decline in the housing market?

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>>1065533
Aside from this "hockey-stick" population chart..
-Civil unrest on the rise.
-Potential for rising income taxes.
-Tightening global credit.
-First time buyers dropping out of the market.
-Real wages stagnant or falling.
-Capital controls out of China.
-Risk of global war.
-Flagging fertility rates.
-Possibility of disease epidemic.

There are lots of reasons to be bearish of the housing market. You can also split most countries into two camps:
1. Those who peaked out in real terms in '07-'09 and never recovered.
2. Those that hiccup'd and kept going (Aus, China, Canada etc.) and are peaking out now.

Housing is a giant bull trap.

>all this cable news analyst parroting

I swear, you guys don't even understand half the shit that comes out of your mouths. /biz/ is truly the worst board on 4chan.

>>1065566
hellen pls

>>1065121
I don't know about the US but unemployment, as defined as those who want work but don't have work, has always been a good indicator of the health of the economy. We have similar numbers here in the UK and the economy is doing well.

My best guess about labour force participation would be people taking early retirement or entering the underground economy.

>>1065157
With respect to printing money out of nothing my first thought is "So what?"

>>1065354
Good thing they know nothing then.

I never understood this Paultard argument about housing. Housing I'd the worst example to use of "malinvestment". Are people going to suddenly not want houses to live in?

We are but no one wants to announce it because it would create panic and secure the crash.

All that does is delay the inevitable tho

>>1065046
this is the type of thinking that put us in this situation in the first place

>>1065362
Sorry to inform you kid, but the reason your life sucks is because you're not too smart and have poor skills. It's not the economy's fault, nor the government's. You can keep hoping and praying that the system crashes so you somehow get a "do over" but it's never going to materialize.

Get out of your parents' basement, get a job, and start your life. It may not be the life you wished for, but its the only one you're getting.

>>1065508
>You mean the one that was propped up entirely by QEs?
Huh? Companies were profitable throughout the bull market, and P/Es didn't approach the high end of the normal range until 2014.

The rally was real.

>So sorry you missed it.

No. The markets are adjusting and the Fed is creating fear. However, this is better than delusion that would blow up on us.

Don't expect a real recession until after QE4 but positive sentiment in the markets need to catch up first.

Right now, people are just worried about China. The US hasn't felt shit.

>>1065346
>Go outside and get off zero hedge faggots
But that just reinforces my idea that the world is indeed entering a recession.
No, infact, it reinforces the idea that we never left recession in the first place

Pop quiz biz.

Where is the next bull market?

Is it

>A: Developed market consumer spending through rising wages
>B: Investments in Emerging Markets
>C: New frontiers in Tech
>D: Government demand via contracts
>E: Innovative financial instruments.
>F for Fed: QExtreme
>Or G: Make up some bullshit.

Pro-Tip: Nobody has yet to give a straight answer yet. You may yet be the very first one in the world! The fortunes would be yours!

>>1065705
F for Fed: QExtreme at the short term
Government demand via contracts in the long term

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>>1065709
>Government demand via contracts in the long term

If only....

Let me put it another way. FDR could only do what he did because he had strong political allies shilling for him. And like last time, men like me would have to make the case to the public. Otherwise, any Congressman would get eaten alive as soon as he opened with the word "taxation.:

>"I agree with your position, now make me do it."

Even the "QE" part wouldn't be so bad in this scenario. In fact, in the long run, it could retroactively become a 'net benefit again.'

I respect your answer though. So quick as well! Fortunes await you, whoever you are!

>>1065705
The next bull market is in equities, after this mini-crash scares everyone into a mature 30+ year debt bubble.

Screencap this post.

>>1065697
>The next bull market is in equities, after this mini-crash scares everyone into a mature 30+ year debt bubble.

I have come to realize there are two types of people in this thread:

-Americans born prior to 1985 who are happily employed in their jobs and have bought the economic recovery meme.

Everyone else.

Do you burgers even realize that the rest of the world is going up in flames while you waddle around in a bubble?

>>1065717
>So quick as well! Fortunes await you, whoever you are!
Why thank you!

Honestly, the government contract answer was somewhat half cheeky and more of a gut feeling when it comes to the current political reality
I'm european though, and that has a bit of weight in my answer

>>1065725
>mini-crash
That was in August

The current 30+ year debt bubble is still well inflated, it just puffed out some air in 2001 and 2008

>>1065725

I would, but you have yet to put even a pseudonym at stake.

Tell me though, how are Equities supposed to become more valuable if their earnings stagnate and decline? Does the price of a share reflect more than then the actual and potential earnings of company?

>>1065732

Alas, this is the truth.

>>1065735

That explains everything, and why us Burgers are in so much trouble...maybe a European nation will survive the Islamic invasion after all.

>>1065744
I started posting a list of just how fucked the entire world is.

It's literally going to shit right now on account of US Dollar hegemony; with the US just retreating from their previously global reach.

I don't blame 'Muricans. You guys have carried regions like Europe for decades now.

Anyway, just watch capital run into US equities on account of the dollar strength as a safe haven when debt markets start to implode.

>>1065757

>Anyway, just watch capital run into US equities on account of the dollar strength as a safe haven when debt markets start to implode.

You have bested me, and answered my question. This may explain why so many "panic buyers" are flooding the market, and why people cannot make sense from heads and tails.

In the end, however, when the third world has given all it can to America, the realities of Capitalism will emerge again, as there will be no more "capital flight" left for Wall Street to take.

>So the correct answer is G.
>G: Capital Flight is the next bull market for the American Economy.

I can also bet dollars to burgers that the big players at Wall Street are aware of this, but I can also bet they aren't thinking ahead beyond this, (based on IRL experiences.) This will be interesting.

Good job and may the dollars be with you.

>>1065757
>nyway, just watch capital run into US equities on account of the dollar strength as a safe haven when debt markets start to implode
thats actually pretty smart.
In the short term this seems like a winning move. Though soon enough it will all come crashing down. It all really depends on the Feds move no?

>>1065768
>You have bested me, and answered my question. This may explain why so many "panic buyers" are flooding the market, and why people cannot make sense from heads and tails.

Yeah. But this current crash needs to get much worse first. People (big investors, and institutional investors) need to feel enough pain to send them into debt to complete the final top in debt.

The whole "2008 all over again" meme. So the DOW could go to to the 12500 or something first.

You can already see the cracks in the debt markets on account of the increased volatility (thinning liquidity) everywhere,

And yeah it's likely that after this (which will be pretty painful for the US balance of trade too on account of a strengthening USD) that a new currency system will emerge.

Also watch the spread between the yield on German Bunds and the US Govt. bonds. That's going to narrow big time at some point.

>>1065778
No, the Fed is sitting pretty. I think they would have raised rates ages ago if not for international interference.

Right now the world is fucked, the Fed. rate hike only exacerbated the capital outflows from "not US" to "US", particularly out of developing nations.

They'll probably continue to hike on schedule and twist the dagger more. The only thing that will stop a rate hike is if shit gets bad in the US and popular opinio (and politicians) turn against them in a big way.

>>1065802
*popular opinion.

>>1065778

The realities of Capitalism will become inevitable, so it will come crashing down. Capitalism works because investors expect a return on profit from their investment. But if businesses cannot generate profits, then it's only a matter of time before investors start seeking new jobs outside of New York.

>yfw, the fundamental flaw of Austrian economics is that Austrians assume Markets are invincible.

Nobody talks about this anymore, because the conversation has been hijacked by smooth-talking imbeciles. Furthermore, any attempt to explain the discrepancies in their thinking is impossible.

>"It isn't-what-you-know. It's who you know."
>"It doesn't matter if you know how to save the economy. What matters is that you weren't on my crew team in the spring of 87."

https://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-grand-experiments-that-are-too-big-to-fail

>>1065794

A new currency system is a fascinating attempt. (Answer E for the plebs.) But ironically it would destroy the US economy.

Thinking about it, that's something I never considered, There is a chance someone will pull a Deng and reorganize their economy at America's current global order. If that happens, then GG.

>Personally, I prefer solution that help the burgers. But then again, I didn't row at the regalia either. So my preferences don't matter.

>>1065819
>There is a chance someone will pull a Deng and reorganize their economy at the destruction of America's current global order*

>>1065794
>>1065819
>new currency
Are we talking about SDR's becoming significantly more important here?
Global currency? Because thats the only new currency system I can think of that could even be considered

>>1065819
>Austrian School.

Meme-tier school. Growth economics. I mean, they had some of the greatest thinkers in Economic history (Hayek, Von Mises, Rothbard etc.) but I'm still a bigger fan of Friedman.

You can't superimpose Austrian Economics onto our current monetary system. It's "what if/pie in the sky" economics right now.

Keynesian econ. has also been entirely bastardized over the years too though. Someone "smooth the business cycle" became "license to shill govt. debt/grow .gov"

Friedman was the best and most practical of the lot, though he did have the benefit of several additional decades of economic data and observation to work with.

My guess is the US dollar will have a starring role in whatever comes next. It just won't be pure US Dollar hegemony anymore.

>>1065832
Potentially yes. I think we might move that way after a lot of volatility and shit times. The idiots in power need to watch the world burn and people die before anyone is moved enough to shake things up.

Last week in Davos they were still debating things like "Why are the people being such bitches?" (Okay.. paraphrasing, but seriously, one of their talks was trying to figure out why everyone was getting so ornery all of a sudden.)

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>>1065805

I want to add that you know your shit. This was an excellent discussion and has corrected some of my misconceptions.

>>1065836

I take offense to anyone complimenting Friedman. QE is the reason why we are in this fucking mess to begin with. (Although youare 100% right about how Keynes has been horribly bastardized)

>>1065832

The particulars that would need to be resolved is where the "genius" comes in. The strategic goal is laudable, but it's a matter of operational strategy to get something off the ground.

I bet you dollars to double-burgers that there is a "genius" right now in London or Tokyo whom would understand how to establish such a system successfully.

>My guess is the US dollar will have a starring role in whatever comes next. It just won't be pure US Dollar hegemony anymore.

Without US Dollar hegemony (exporting Inflation,) then the world order built in 45 is dead. We had a tremendous scare going into the 80's from stagflation (caused by the Keynesians,) and Kissinger found the right man for the job to turn things around.

The point is that the economic 'reformers' cannot rise to power under any circumstance, because they would never buy into current Economic dogshit in the first place.

Straight shot to hell, for us, I fear.

We've been in a recession. Now on the verge of a depression.

>>1065843
They understand a lot of people won't accept a global currency willingly. All currencies tanking at the same time may be what's needed to achieve that.

>>1065850
>The point is that the economic 'reformers' cannot rise to power under any circumstance, because they would never buy into current Economic dogshit in the first place.
A sad yet awfully correct sentence right there

/pol/-tier thread lads.

Please type out all the ways the world is so completely and utterly fucked in the next few years.

>>1065876

Or! You could BTFO of the Anime-NEETs and just explain to us where the next Bull Market is.

>>1065705

See? It's that Easy!

>Keep in mind that IRL I've been a Millennial Job Creator, the rarest of the Millennials.
>Mfw, I'd love nothing more than an economic recovery so I can build a new business that resolves new market demands.

>>1065850
Friedman was just pragmatic. "We have a shit system, but until we implement something better it's the system we need to work with. The best we can do is mitigate the stupidity it causes."

Watch some of his interviews in the mid '90s when he was laying into Clinton. Smart guy.

>>1065889
>being a millennial

All the more reason to disregard your posts. But seriously, tap out that list of ways the world is going to burn in the next few years. Bonus points for every time you mention muslims.

>>1065794
fucking crypto shill

>>1065917
Kek. How do you figure?

You realize new global currency regimes emerge frequently, right?

>>1065911

Kek.

I can't actually tell if it would matter to do so. It's a very long paper to write up, and the last time I took a serious (though flawed) stab at writing something, I was misunderstood.

To be honest, our situations COULD be resolved relatively painlessly because 1) we still have a tremendous amount of 'chips' to play with 2) many of the problems haven't become terminal yet 3) I frankly have an unusually strong set of maneuvers.

And even then, I'm not qualified to spell out all the problems we face, and more importantly, I don't need to bother criticizing people about issues I don't understand.

Go ahead and shit test me. I only have a narrow-minded set of good intentions.But only time will reveal this...

>>1065917

Kek

>"I'm not the hero economy needs, but the one it deserves..."

>>1065911

The only suggestion I have to sincerely offer is to find a Bull Market. Somehow.

This would be my very first objective, and it would need to be done via private capital.

>>1065924
Well that was quick. Usually people like you and >>1065922 don't shoot your wads so fast when it comes to talking about your disaster SHTF fantasies. Are you guys full from lunch or something? Feeling a little logy?

>>1065922
my field is geopolitics rather than economics but i can tell you that the us dollar is here to stay.

>>1065931

When the Fed can raise interest rates again without blowing up the planet, then I'll burn all my anime dolls.

Until then, how can any intelligent person take our economy with sincerity.

>>1065936

Perhaps. Unless there is a concerted effort to do so, then it stays by default, in which case the US is OK in this storm. Which would be the preferable scenario, at least for this burger.

File: US Interest Rates.jpg (24KB, 535x331px) Image search: [Google]

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>>1065939

>>1065939
See you March. I'll bring the matches.

>>1065939
the biggest threat to the dollar would come from china crypto-shilling its way into a new world order.

But i highly doubt any of that will happen until we start seeing real conflicts in the pacific.

Remember kids, the QE is propped by the US military :D

File: Fed Policy.jpg (108KB, 959x495px) Image search: [Google]

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>>1065947

I'll get Tyler Durden to bring his toys as well.

>>1065959
>>1065922
You guys econ majors or something? Can you recommend me some papers or books to read to begin to understand what you are saying about debt and global currencies etc.

>>1066340

If you really want to study this kind of thing then do it properly. By that I mean don't seek out whatever crackpot blogs line up with your political beliefs.

I'd recommend "Principles of Macroeconomics" by Mankiw for a kickoff. Then Mishkins "The Economics of Money, Banking and Financial Markets" for a good introduction to monetary economics and the financial markets.

>>1066380
Yea, I want it done properly. textbooks, etc that I would find in an undergraduate course or something. Ok, thanks ill check these two out.

File: 23 things.jpg (36KB, 333x499px) Image search: [Google]

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>>1066340

I've taken the "street smart approach." This may or may not help.

I've been a small business owner. As a result, I've learned alot about the "real" economy and so I immediately knew where to look to get what I needed. If you want to get into Economics, the best way is to hang around Entrepreneurs and let the information soak in.

Alternatively, I would hang around Finance (such as brokers,) but that's ALOT more intense and is a full time job.

Either way, the point is to be among the "doers" rather than the "preachers."

But if you want to get into the "theory..."

Get this book. Koreans have a 'knack' for honesty, and this guy states everything as it is. He isn't a Marxist, but he's not blowing the billionaires either.

The point is that the Academics have a messed up agenda to try and crippled the way we do business. They are as blind as "Marxists" despite preaching the total opposite of Marxism.

Unfortunately, there is a long list of very powerful people whom have also bought alot of the Bullshit. I don't 'fault' anyone for being suckered. But rather we are in for a world of hurt because of it.

Finally, understand that doing things "properly" is a bad idea, because what is "proper" is also ineffective. As a desperate maneuver, I've figured out several innovations to improve the way we do business, but it's impossible because investors are extremely close-minded right now (due to Academics fucking with their heads.)

Check it.

https://www.uschamber.com/sites/default/files/declining_business_dynamism_figure1.png

We are less Entrepreneurial today than we were under fucking president Carter. That's how bad things have gotten. Welch was the "last" of the Financial reformers that I've referred to earlier.

>>1065863

Anyway, IDK if this will help, but understand that 'Current' Economics is just as deluded as Marxist economics. It's nothing but a set of feel good praises that will pauperize the planet and threaten our economy.

>>1066447
Sounds legit.

>>1066447

I put it this way.

>An economist knows what people COULD do. >A businessman knows what people WOULD do.

It's the difference between Bush and Trump. Bush may have tremendous prestige and respect among the Ivy league schools. But Trump understands the American Voter far better than Bush, and therefore Trump is dominant. (In a war between a businessman vs. an economist in economics, the businessman comes out top everytime.)

>>1065936
>>1065931

See:>>1065832
>>1065843

I'm not sure where you two got the notion that I thought Bitcoin would be the next thing, or that the USD wouldn't be a big part of the next currency regime?

You realize we switched currency regime in the 1970s too? (from Bretton-Woods to the current scheme.)

>>1066397
If you want college level Econ. textbooks, I can give you an entire reading list, anon.

>>1065663

>Am not American
>Qualified Electrician, work in commericial
>Earn $75,000+ a year + car and fuel provided
>Moved out of home when i was 18

I'm just watching your shitshow from afar.

>>1066397
See >>1066447 for what not to do. Overly political polemics like this one should be avoided.

>>1065821
By the way m8, if one of you anons screencaps>>1065725, I have certifiable proof it was me that made the call if I turn out to be right.

>>1066876
What do you care about proving yourself right to a 4Tard board? Put your money where your mouth is and you'll be laughing all the way to the bank (or not).
Post your portfolio that's all the proof you need. If you're not ready for that quit being an attention whore.

>>1066514
Yes please

>>1066884
Millenial master's student with minimal savings. Don't have the min. capital requirements to enter into US equities from where I am. (Buttfuckistan, Europe).

Further complicated by being Euro/US dual citizen which makes the tax situation difficult.

>>1065157
>>1065187
Printing money causes inflation.This is not a secret. It's supposed to devalue cash assets to prevent them from building up. It's an incentive to work/invest when your savings slowly devalue over time

>>1066887
Alright anon. Not sure whether you can get these same copies in the US if that's where you're at, but this is a typical undergrad econ. course list. Here:

Macro:
Macroeconomics; Blanchard & Johnson (ISBN 0-273-76633-3)
Monetary Policy; Peter Bofinger (ISBN 978-0-19-924856-8)
Economic Growth; David N. Weil (ISBN 978-0-273-76929-3)
Nations and Firms in the Global Economy; Brakman, Garretsen et al. (ISBN 978-0-521-54057-5)

Study the macro first, then move onto the other stuff, otherwise you'll be walking around blind.

You'll need a solid background in basic discrete mathematics and statistics. On discrete: any textbook with calculus, matrices, lagrange, double sums, algebra (indices, surds, etc.) should suffice. On Statistics: discrete and continuous distributions (uniform, poisson, normal [gaussian], binomial, bernoulli, hypergeometric.) Regressions, Hypothesis tests, standard error, correlation, standard dev. variance, etc. will do. Also look at combinatorics, Bayes theorem, and probability theory, expectations etc.

Once you've done that stuff move onto regression analysis if you're enjoying the stats.

Micro and Finance stuff to come. Decent grasp of algebra, lagrange etc needed for micro, and both that and stats for basic level finance.

>>1066904
Micro:
Microeconomics: Pindyck & Rubinfield (ISBN 978-0-13-304170-5)
Mathematical Methods for Economics: Klein (ISBN 0-201-72626-2)

If you are into strategic interaction and stuff, study game theory. Too (can give upon request).

Finance:
Financial Accounting. (This needs to be regionally bought; accounting standards differ)
Corporate Finance (Mine is a Euro specific copy)
Any book on International Finance (futures, options, currencies,etc.)

>>1066887
Investments: Bodie, Kane, Marcus (ISBN: 978-0-0771-6114-9)

In addition to that you can supplement with further reading on business strategy, supply chains etc. You should be well rounded if you can get through all that.

Be sure to remember that Macro is pretty wishy-washy. So remain critical when reading.