How bad can it get, realistically? Everyman for themselves? Or

Aol 2.0.

What are the chances of the dollar exchange rate going down?

>>1032900
low. The rest of the world is probably going to suck harder than the US.

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we are looking dow back at 18k and over already in march. possibly even in february

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>>1032920
This.
Why is this board so fucking filled with bear extremists?

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>>1032922
herd behavior is hard wired in humans. also the media is also negative. when you got positive news it's neutral at best, when you got the negative news finally it's the doomsday. people want negative news. unfortunately reading the news is not how you make money at stock market.

It could be the worst meltdown the world has ever seen, but it probably won't be. No one here has a crystal ball.

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>>1032931
if you are so worried, just make so you have some cash and start buying leveraged index after 40% down (which is absolutely what we are looking atm) and you would catch up again in no time.

we have had 2009 to 2015 january the rally several years very steady and climb it is necessary to have the pause now. the fundamentals are not there, bonds? no way. the banks are loaded. it's a pause.

>>1032945
woops i meant to say absolutely what we are not looking now.

>>1032922

according to sophisticated shiller cape valuation calculation, the stock market will return 0% over the next 12 years.

>>1032953
well, 12 years is a long time :)

>>1032924

www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-crash-of-2016-the-countdown-begins-2015-02-25

>>1032924
I think mainstream news and conspiracy theorist, actually swatch that, all countries are saying the same thing, and it's spreading and already in other countries.

Trust me I tried to make sure this stuff was fake before I put money into safe heaven assets.

7 year boom bust cycle.

>>1032922
That is just the nature of 4chan.

People that actually take what's said on here seriously need to commit sudoku and get off my lawn.

>>1033049
shimmy2 go home.

>>1032900
I sure hope u have safe haven currencies

>>1032945
may be a long term depression after the next crash who says stocks can't go sideways for a long ass fucking time? If china goes full japan the worlds stock market are fucked.

>>1032886
this is the smart money pulling the plugs while analysts are keeping the dumb in by saying "oh its not so bad" "economy is doing fine dont worry"... risk / reward owning stocks right now is completely skewed towards the risk side.

Its probably the start of a recession. But we don't know, because no one can predict the future. It all depends on China having a good market, and the west having money to pay for their cheap crap. This can be a correction for all we know, or the anal rape fest of the global market that brings down governments.

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>>1032886
There's too many fucking doomsayers on this board. Ride it out and wait. Monitor your assets and determine an acceptable level of risk, that's on you. I personally think when people start crying doom that's the time to buy.

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>any index is down 1%
>OMG ITS GONNA DROP 50% IN THE NEXT TWO WEEKS GUYS
>every.single.day.

>>1032922
>dow
>17k
Should read 15k. Cuz that's where it haded

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2017
Dow = 6000

>>1033506

stock is overvalued by 100%, so it's going to crash, only question is when, not if.

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>>1033615
it's anything but overvalued or a bubble. it's undervalued. we have record lows retail participation still. people always buy tops and sell lows. the common retail havent come back since 2009 crash.

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>>1033632

you fool retail money market fund is cash, record low means people are holding record low amount of cash, if they are holding record low cash, that means they are holding record high amount of investments.

>>1033632

see the spikes in 2000 and 2008? when stocks crash, people sell stocks and put money into money market funds.

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No you cant say the cash is low so the stock participation is high. You simply look the retail participation in sp500, not cash. Historically the common people always miss the rally as they stay buy tops and stay in fear after a crash.

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-10-21/news/43250490_1_retail-investors-small-investors-destimoney-securities

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-10-21/news/43250490_1_retail-investors-small-investors-destimoney-securities

http://www.gallup.com/poll/162353/stock-ownership-stays-record-low.aspx

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-stock-market-is-unsafe-for-the-average-investor-2015-05-21

>>1032886
Or its a correction

>>1033647
if they are holding record low cash, they may be carrying debt instead and have no investments.

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loga dow

>>1033152
like?

>>1033814
would be interested to overlay a different color shading for periods US was involved in an overseas war

>>1033826
gold silver

>>1033974
>>1032886

Its the Deflation mate, QE is gone and the rates are going up (meaning private bank-based money creation is down too) without these crutches the deflation is inevitable

its healthy desu, prices need to adjust to where they should be, and that includes stock prices. You want to make money right now? Sell everything and hold the cash. You won't get any more individual dollars but the deflation will make them worth more relative to everything else

TLDR sell high and wait for the next low to buy

>>1032953

meh, the average stock market is one thing, rolling the dice on a specific company is another. besides, there's still dividends and day trading. Not like o% over 12 years is even realistically possible desu barring some huge change in fundamentals

even then it wouldn't just be a flat line, it would be a long ass period of ups and downs that averaged out near 0

>>1033983

The interest rate will be lowered to 0% by the fed after the market crashes, and then the fed will print off trillions of dollars to bail out the banks and contractors.

Also, Hillary will be elected, and print off 4 trillion $ to pay off everyone's student debt- dollar takes another brutal pounding

USD in going into the toilet soon

You know hillary has a 75% chance to win right? So why on earth would you hold USD?

>>1034003

first of all because every other country will be hit harder than the US - just like it happened in the 2007 crisis, the dollar rose.

secondly, whatever happens with politics isn't necessarily relevant, if they start printing money like you say then there won't be deflation, as it stands right now (10 months before the election?) delfation is the reality. if this time next year something else is going on, change strategies, but right now deflation is what's going on and i reckon by the next meeting of the FOMC they're gonna start saying that.

>>1034105

Dollar won't crash when they start printing dollars, it'll crash when people get scared they will start printing dollars.

Which will happen after hillary wins the nomination

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>>1032886
Keep buying stocks dow jones will reach the moon this year! Long and strong. Always buy the dip!

t. Lloyd Blankfein
Ps. We are not short
pp.s. I promise

>>1033811

have you looked at the fred average investor equity allocation chart, the average investors' equity allocation is back to 2008 level.

>>1032922
I'm guessing because there was a lot of social capital to be made by correctly predicting problems in the caveman days, so we're hardwired to be loud about it when we foresee a problem.

It will test the support at around 15000, then go to 40000 by 2018

are dividend stocks the only way to consistantly make money long term on the market?

I mean you are looking at 2-4% quarterly dividends and technically speaking the stocks can go down or up, it's more to do with shares than the current price of the stock?

I am trying to figure out what to do with nearly 100k in savings that are liquid at the moment to make the most of them in this volatile market conditions

>>1034731
Bonds or CDs if you are trying to avoid vol. Some credit unions and online only banks have some solid CD rates with fdic insurance (big banks are shit rates though)

>>1034140

nah if public opinion is what you're going by I doubt institutional investors and big private ones are going to go bear on the dollar because of hilldog, she's one of them

>Be me
>Invest in glorious Nippon, because I expect future inflation

Enjoy the ride, folks

>>1034731
You need to look at longer time horizons than a year. CAGR since 2007, which would include the entirety of the great recession, in inflation adjusted terms is still 6.41% per year. There are occasional bad years, but if you're investing for retirement then market corrections are not particularly impactful.

>>1034731
Don't fall for the dividend meme. There is nothing magic about dividends. What good is a 3% yield on WMT when its price has cratered 30% over the last year. The company faces serious threats to its business model, so its naive to believe the price will return to what it once was.

>>1034731
>are dividend stocks the only way to consistently make money long term on the market?
it's not but it works out well for those who work on it