When will the oil prices go up?

>>1015394

Oil prices will either

A) Go up
B) Hold steady
C) Go down

Therefore oil prices will go up when they do not hold steady or go down.

I've read up a good amount on the subject and most firms are projecting that oil will be at $60 per barrel by the end of 2016. I just don't see supply dropping enough to justify that. Most of the firms projecting $60 claim that at some point US and OPEC will begin to build up their reserves and wait for higher prices. I just don't see it. With Iran gradually entering the oil supply market and reliance on oil in developed countries decreasing every year, I think we may have reached a new norm of oil prices. Especially with how much developing markets are expected to struggle in 2016. I also believe that oil companies are aware of this which is why they have not yet chosen to decrease supply. There is likely to be a slight increase due to the pure anticipation of price increases, but I project no more than $45 per barrel at this time next year.

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When demand increases or supply decreases.

>>1015404
>I think we may have reached a new norm of oil prices.
M8 hardly anyone except the saudis are profitable at these prices. Everyone's just going to keep pumping oil at a loss indefinitely into the future?.

>>1015434
You know they can cease production at mines right? Which you'll find is happening across most resource sectors at the moment.

>>1015396
It sounds like you run a hedge fund.

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>>1015434
Oil producers are now pumping oil and gas as fast as they can just for the cash flow.

Many use 70% of that incoming cash to service debt that is 7 years old.

Their income has been cut by more than half but their credit expense stayed the same. So they bump up production and lay off staff.

They will file for bankruptcy next year and the hedge funds and major oil companies will be their new owners.

>>1015434
>hardly anyone except the saudis are profitable
Profitable as the Saudi oil production may be, they spend so much that their deficit is now 16% of GDP. NOT sustainable.

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>>1015394
later in 2016, as all commodities. i mean it's not going sharply shoot up but everything starts to rise slowly 2016-2017 as fed increases rates

>>1015404
>reliance on oil in developed countries decreasing every year
wat

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>>1015573
Saudis are selling sovereign bonds now. They could do that for another 50 years if they wanted to. Saudis can remain irrational longer than oil producers can remain solvent.

Whenever peak oil happens

>>1015619

This, the Saudis have massive sovereign wealth and asset networks covering the globe. They will keep doing this to try and cuck Russia.

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>>1015404

I honestly hope this won't happen. Romania greatly benefits from these prices,even tho' the national oil company is lossing money. From what I've read, the oil will stay under 40$ untill aprox 2019-2020. Great amounts of oil have been found in the black sea around Crimea and southern of Insula Serpilor on the Romanian shore,and some on the Bulgarian side. Modernization on the aparature of the drilling machines on the soil is planned for the following years increasing the productivity,and there have been a few meetings this year betwen Romania Georgia and Armenia about the Black Sea conduct of oil to get to Europe. THe Iranian oil and and increase of production by Venezuela are good signs aswell.

> oil will stay under 40$ untill aprox 2019-2020

it wont. that would mean goyim would benefit and get actually cheap things. im buying noble corp just now because its a natural law it will go up

When ISIS stops selling.

I'm dead serious. Groups that take over the oil industry like ISIS sell oil on the "black market" for ridiculously low prices, forcing oil cartels like OPEC to lower their prices in order to compete.

>>1016287
>When ISIS stops selling.
the fuck people think Russia intervened? Because of Syria? KEEK

>>1015404

Supply doesn't even have to drop much. Projecting like 1.8 million bpd consumption growth over '16. That pretty much covers the excess production we have right now.

>>1016291
Russia hasn't done shit to ISIS. all their bombings have targeted towards the Free Syrian Army.

They intervened to keep Al Bassard in office.

>>1016291
Aren't Syria and isis allies?

>>1015394
2017 it will start. I work for both Anadarko and Contango and while their laying off everyone, they're telling all of us that were going to need to hold on all of this year and most of 2017. I've seen all my superiors fired at this point so I think it's safe to say they aren't betting they'll need them any time soon.

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>>1016323
Sending good vibes from Wyoming though.

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Was just watching "Nightly Business Report" with Sue Herrera and she was discussing Saudi financial situations and said something about n "upcoming OPEC meeting" and I'm like "WTF??" and start frantically searching for info an an "upcoming OPEC meeting" and can't find shit abut it and then Sue comes back on and says something like, "I mis spoke about the OPEC meeting...I was referring to the last OPEC meeting..." and it made me think that some other energy person probably sharted like I did when she said that and made the mistake...

>>1016287
Bahahahahaahahaha

>>1016303
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34882503
>The Russian military says it fired 18 cruise missiles on Friday, destroying seven "Islamist" targets in Raqqa, Idlib and Aleppo provinces.
>Col Patrick Ryder, a spokesman for US Central Command, said the Russian air strikes in recent days targeted more IS areas, including the group's oil infrastructure.

>>1016320
No. Do you think the SAA liked losing Palmrya, Raqqa, and a bunch of their bases near Iraq?

They are currently fighting to the death near Palmyra and northeast of Aleppo.

>>1016320
Syria had a fucked up multifaction civil war before ISIS even became a legitimate issue.

Essentially it's the established "corrupt" government versus the main rebels, but since middle eastern people ACTUALLY BELIEVE in their religion, even the rebels have in-fighting because why bother winning a war if you're not doing it with people you disagree about Allah on. So the rebels have 5-7 factions at a time, only 1-3 are ever big, and they're all fighting the government and each other. Then ISIS rolls in from some of these factions winning support and starts fighting everyone, EVERYONE. Rebels, government, US, France, anyone they find. They essentially pull a Genghis Khan and go up to small villages, say "give us your stuff and join us, or die," and then either recruit or sack the place.

So now we have the main rebels, ISIS, smaller rebel groups, the government, and OH YEAH THE KURDS ALSO HATE EVERYONE INVOLVED.

Syria is insolvable because every other person in Syria wants every other person dead. It's why the middle east has never had a true empire, they're all savages to the point of being badass in a historical sense and helpless idiots in a modern sense.

>>1016327
>Sending good vibes from Wyoming though.

Maybe not for much longer. Peeps are starting to get laid off in WY too. Crime is up, at least in the northern regions.

>>1016327

What is even the play in Wyoming? is that part of the bakken or what

Read into the oil crisis that happened in the 1980's for some background.

Oil is a commodity so think of oil futures as a real figure vs nominal. Therefore it has the potential to go down to mid 20s.

What's happening with oil prices is intentional though I feel, on part of the US. We all saw this coming, US was becoming more oil independent (ie less imports), putting a squeeze on russia and the saudi's, economic warfare!

Add to this the Paris Climate agenda and increasing use and innovation in bio oil mixes in aviation gas and.......

I have to say, the future doesn't look too good for oil.

>>1017215
I see the complete opposite. Oil is down, production and pumping is through the fucking roof from short sighted or impoverished administrations in most countries. Supply is so damn high that demand can't meet it, therefor oil is cheap as fuck.

Suddenly all the alternatives don't need to beat $120 per barrel equivalent to be viable for research from big companies, they need to beat $35. Oil is securing its foothold by putting all the research into alternatives on hold long enough for the researchers to find other employment.

I work for the railroad and just got furloughed Christmas eve, I desperately need frac sand to come back.

>>1018195
That makes the opposite of sense. Trains are cheaper to run now, and they're delivering just as much oil as they did in the past, if not more thanks to lower prices creating new business acceptable business margins.

It's not like oil bought from OPEC lands on a fucking train at the gas station. We're still using freighters, trains, and trucks to transport it.

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>>1018195
July 24, 2015

In light of the recent furloughs by Union Pacific and BNSF railroads, below is a Q&A offered by the Railroad Retirement Board (RRB) addressing common questions about unemployment benefits.

To be eligible for unemployment benefits from the RRB, furloughed members must have had railroad earnings of at least $3,600 in 2014 and must also have five months of service in 2014 with a railroad. If you do not meet these requirements, you may be entitled to unemployment benefits from your state of residence.

Click here to learn more about the benefits the RRB offers in which you may be entitled to. Click here for claim forms from the RRB.

http://utu.org/2015/07/24/furloughed-members-may-be-entitled-to-benefits/

>>1018195
>>1018287
I take it back, didn't realize that the train industry relied so heavily on coal shipments. Fucking coal. It's worse for the environment, has more airspace in loading, and more expensive than oil for the next decade, no redeeming qualities. I just sold all my UNP before it goes back on the decline. Shit's fucked.

>>1015394
I fell like they wont go up for a long time. My reason being is that the oil prices are currently at the correct price. Saudi had complete control of the oil prices several years ago when we saw the oil prices skyrocket. That mad the US develop technology to start pumping shale oil, and frack. So we started producing more oil, bringing down our reliance on Saudi oil. When the Saudis started hurting because of that, they dropped their prices, which now makes no sense to pump our oil because at the current price we can't make a profit. But once the Saudis can't take the low prices anymore, we start pumping our own oil again. So the pricing should stay fairly consistent for a while, maybe just a steady increase due to inflation

>>1018365
>But once the Saudis can't take the low prices anymore
Nothing makes my dick harder than Saudi Arabia economically crashing.

>>1018367
It will happen again. When their ENTIRE economy is based solely around oil, that's all they're good for. They don't have any worthwhile skills beyond that. Even their skyscrapers are designed and build by whites and Chinese, they can't even do that themselves. They have nothing else to lean on except oil. Just wait till electric cars begin to become more popular in the future.

One other thing that fucks them is just pure economics. If their oil becomes too high, more money is put towards research for alternative energy and oil independence. They're almost forced to keep their oil low or they risk the chance of having the world switch off oil. The last time they bumped their oil prices high, the US developed cheaper ways to frack and extract oil here at home, and fuck saudi arabia.

>>1015434
You don't need to be profitable to run your production. You will see a net benefit (smaller loss) by running even if you can only pay your fixed costs. This means, given large enough cash reserves, some companies may be best off producing at a loss and waiting for competitors to fall out of business.

Nobody will stop pumping. Iran sanctions will be lifted, the US will remove its oil export ban.

You are going to see the world flush with even more oil.

You aren't seeing the growth in world consumption, economic growth is slowing.

Its gonna be long ride.

>>1015567
Could I buy a bankrupt oil company when they crash?

>>1015394
>Saudi Arabia economically crashing.
It's impossible.

>>1018415
Yes

>>1015573
>NOT sustainable.
This sort of thinking has caused so much capital destruction in the producing community.

The better statement you could make is that the Saudis/Opec will help themselves once tight oil producers are bankrupt.

>>1018443
Thanks Obama! Imma buy me a fine southern gentleman's outfit with my oil money.

>>1018316
Yeah where I work in mn, our biggest shipments were fracing sand and oil trains, and cheap oil prices mean more customers transport by truck, since the RR generally takes longer to move freight and usually fuck with their pricing and screw customers over when they can.

The changeover from coal to natural gas was a painful one too, lots of guys out west are out of work, and we lost about 33-4 trains a week from that. But I also understand why they switched over.

Luckily I have decent enough senority to back working in 2 years maximum, it's just finding a decent paying job in the meantime that sucks, along with not being able to invest sucks too. But sob story over I'm not too worried, I'm white and only half retard should be A ok.

>>1018442

Ha!

>>1018451

>will help themselves once tight oil producers are bankrupt

It's not realistic though. Other producers will just buy the acreage and do it. American producers will be able to raise capital and do it every time, maybe under different organizations and names but it will get done.

I don't think the actions of SA are about beating down small American producers. I think it's a lot more complicated than that and we just like to make everything about us.

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>>1018823
>I'm white and only half retard should be A ok.
Feels good, man.

>>1018854
It sincerely is about beating down American shale producers. Just like the 1980s (which they won).

They also want Russia gone too. Iran is a problem but they don't give a fuck, Iran is in the middle east so they can get anyone to go to war with it eventually.

>>1018823
>I'm white and only half retard should be A ok.
Contact your nearest natural gas trading company. You'll fit right in.

>>1015577
yes, as interest rates rise people will sell their interest bearing financial assets for oil

jesus biz

>>1019153
I've got CNX and it's desensitized me to any level of trading fear. It's on the S&P500 top winners and top losers every other day.

>>1015394
in like a year or two. otherwise, it's tanking for like 4 years.

source: did some analysis and listened to my feelings.

Free tip: natural gas going up atleast 7% today

>>1015567
Most likely if oil companies start going bankrupt than the petrochemical companies that produce goods will be hit hard to the point of bankruptcy. This is ticking time bomb.
>>1018442
Well the IMF says otherwise. 2020 they will be bankrupted.

buy low sell high

it will take a few years, be patience and you will be rewarded with over 200% return if oil price climb up to previous average level

>>1018888

It's not anything like the 80s.

And my point still remains that the wells will get drilled regardless of how many companies go bankrupt if oil prices go back to high levels. Someone else will always be able to raise some money and go do it.

Just like in the 80s when the major oil companies abandoned their American acreage in large part. That's when a lot of the independents that started the whole tight oil thing came about, buying up that acreage from the distressed majors.

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>>1019761
You are wrong.

In the 80s the Saudis had reduced their production to "keep prices up" after the rallies in 73 and 79. between 73 and 79 Alaska came on, Indonesia, Mexico, North Sea etc dramatically increased production of crude oil and were taking OPEC share by proxy. In November 1985, Sheik Yamani of SA told an Oxford gathering that SA was "going to take back its market share" and they did. Just like today. Then oil fell 75% off its high. Same thing has happened today.

Andy Hall and the other people who lost money last summer squealed like pigs caught under a gate saying "it's not like the 80s!" but, unfortunately for them it is.

Saudis don't like your high priced production? They fuck you by flooding the market with low cost production. Saudis need $100/bbl for social programs? Maybe.....but they can get that money by selling bonds and....guess what?...that's what they are fucking doing.

In 2016 the Saudis win the price war. Small oil producers will go BK and get bought by the majors and hedge funds for pennies on the dollar. Tight oil will become the new "swing production".

To keep shale producers on the ropes, the Saudis will limit oil price rallies in the $5/bbl range for a decade or more.

That was just like the 80s when going into the 90s oil averaged in the 20s and low 30s. In 1998 WTI oil was $11/bbl.

When it comes to low cost oil production the Saudis are Superman.

>>1019826
The Saudis can't control the market anymore. Half of OPEC is broke and in political turmoil. Iran and Russia are pumping more oil than the Saudis. The Saudis may have less oil reserves than they're reporting to the world. The Saudis are bleeding money and taking out loans to keep their government afloat. By 2016 half of Saudi sovereign wealth fund will be depleted. The damage is done for the Saudis and if the price of oil goes up the shale producers come back online. Its a losing game for the camels. This is the end of OPEC. Venezuela which has 20% of the world oil is close to bankruptcy and overthrowing their socialist government because of no food, and basic goods.

>>1015396
I legitimately say shit like this to clients all the time. 9 times out of 10 they act like it's sage advise.

1 in 10 times they call me on it and I give them a lecture about the subjectivity of risk tolerance.

Seriously though oil is going to come back, some at least. All it really will take I'd one good supply threat in the middle easy and it will get moving.

Maybe the oil will never recover fags are right about a full recovery back to 100 a bbl, but going back up to 50 or 60 seems inevitable to me, even on the medium time horizon. The only reason I'm not buying oil is I pretty much stick to a 2 to 5 day position. If I was intrested in letting shit ride for a year without monkeying with it I would be buying oil right now.

oil will be cheaper then water..... Mind blowing