Is /b/ too stupid to solve this?

50%

You take a gold ball out, it can only be the first or second box.

>>720464390
Fuck it, I'm going to dip my balls into the box instead.

>>720464523
Wrong. It's not asking you the probability of the box you picked. It's given you have a gold ball in your hand what is the probability the next ball you pick will be gold as well.

>>720464526
That's hardcore.

>>720464661
trying too hard to troll after someone guessed correctly on first try

>>720464661
The fact that a gold ball was picked shows that the third box is out. So you either pick box #1 or box #2. If you picked box #1 you get a gold ball next, if you pick box #2 you don't. It's 50% for each box, so 50% if you got a gold ball or not.

>>720464754
It's a famous problem and I assure you that is the wrong answer. I'll post up the links to further reading later in the thread. Let people struggle a bit first.

>>720464820
Consider this. If you picked a gold ball first, isn't it more likely going to come from the first box. Let's exaggerate the problem:

Box 1: 99G - 1S
Box 2: 1G- 99S
Box 3: 100S

If you picked a box at random. And then you pick a ball and it happens to be a gold ball. What box would you bet that you picked at first?

>>720465051
If you're thinking of the monty hall problem, this is different because you're forced to pick the same box and can't change

Your comparison is illogical. I don't have 1G and 99S or 99G and 1S, I have 1G and 1 S or 2G. There is nothing deeper about it.

>>720465051
Thinking again, I see why you may have misunderstood your own problem.

Your thinking would be correct if you picked a BALL at random. But you're not. You're picked a BOX at random.

>>720465836
It's not the Monty Hall problem. That problem changes the problem space in a different manner based on the conditional statement in that problem. All of this has been widely discussed.

If you are too dense to consider the problem carefully then I will spoonfeed you the answer. It's a shame people are too stupid to think critically.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand's_box_paradox

>>720465903
I did not misunderstand my problem. You do not understand it.

You pick a box at random. And then from that box you pick a ball at random which turns out to be golden.

It's not complicated.

2/3(1/2*1/2+1/2)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand's_box_paradox

It's 2/3. The proof is available at the link.

Any answers below this post that are not 2/3 are certified retards and should off themselves.

>>720466173
It's not 1/2.

>>720466287
Thank you, but luckily the retards never read the thread. I already provided the link and the guy above you still couldn't solve it.

And yes, 2/3 is correct.

>>720466410
only way it is 2/3 if you put whatever you take back

>>720466624
No. You do not put the ball back into the box. It's asking you given that you have a golden ball in your hand, what is the probability that the second ball in the same box is also gold.

>>720466624

R E T A R D
E
T
A
R
D

Learn about conditional probability then come back

>>720466785
Stfu faggot i didn't read all.Yes,it is 2/3.

File: 1478765000498.jpg (20KB, 500x375px) Image search: [Google]

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>>720466410
Maybe you're the retard for thinking that people are serious when they answer something else than 2/3
>using full stops
>being this autistic

>>720464390
1 in 3

>>720467147
>>720467058

You'd be surprised how many retards lurk 4chan.

More challenging:

If you are on an infinite stretch of road with a uniform probability density of seeing cars then...

If the probability of seeing at least a car in 30 mins is 0.95. What is the probability of seeing a car in 10 minutes?

>>720467321
Wrong.

>>720467436
*** at least a car ***

>>720467696
Where did you get 1/4 for those balls. That drawing is completely wrong. Because you can only pick from one box.

File: anon's intelligence.jpg (321KB, 1103x1754px) Image search: [Google]

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>>720467436

>>720467906
Solving these problems puts you at high school level at best.

It's 50% cause gold ball

>>720468387
That's good justification indeed. But, wrong.

>>720464523
You either have a 100% chance or a 0% chance which averages at a 50.
50% to get a guaranteed gold
50% to get a guaranteed silver.

Go fuck yourself 1st comment got it first try

>>720469202
You must be trolling. Are you retarded?

>>720469310
No m8.
First ball is gold guaranteed.

That means there's two box's.
If you too the ball out one box gives you a guaranteed silver.
The other gives you guaranteed gold.

Therefore it's 50% and if you want to prove me wrong blame the person who made problem for not including whether or not you place the ball back in the box before redrawing.

>>720464390
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand's_box_paradox

answer is 2/3, everybody saying 1/2 is either a legitimate idiot or they're trying out babbys first troll.

>inb4 you can't trust wikipedia
then look it up literally anywhere else.

>>720469472
.5

>>720469414
Consider this post: >>720465051

>>720469472
Refer to: >>720467436 for a more difficult problem.

>>720469525
Still wrong.

>>720469414
>first ball is gold guaranteed
ok m8, so you've got 1 of the 3 gold balls in your hand. could be any of those 3 gold balls. TWO of those gold balls are in a box with another gold ball in it, and one gold ball is in a box with a silver ball in it, so in TWO out of the THREE situations, there's another gold ball in the box you chose.

>>720469583
If that's new case it's 100% mutha fuka.
Because having a 1% of grabbing gold first time is highly unlikely.
Having 99% and grabbing another ball is

>>720469691
No because it's still likely that you got super lucky and picked Box 2 and then picked the 1/100 gold balls.

Common man.

>>720469632
Not if the first ball is from the silver gold box. Than you have a guaranteed gold.
Meaning you have 100%.

If you grab it from gold box you got 50%

If you're still gonna argue on the Internet I will too.

>>720469779
Luck
Probability

Pick one

Why can't I put both my hands in the box and grab both the balls hmm

>>720464390
50/50, either it's gold or it's not

2/3 is correct.

Anyone who says otherwise is either stupid or trolling.

If you randomly pull a gold ball as your first ball, then you are TWICE AS LIKELY to have chosen the all gold box. This is because there are 2 WAYS to draw a gold ball from the all gold box and only 1 WAY tp draw a gold ball from the gold/silver box.

So essentially you are now left with 3 possible balls.

2 out of the 3 are gold. The other is silver.

2/3

>>720469886
I agree with you fuck the 66%.
Don't care if they have research in person it's a 50/50.
Just like a coin flip unless these technical assholes are gonna go well there's a .00000002% chance it lands on the middle which is what they're pulling here

>>720469868
Luck is the word we use when an event with a very small probability occurs.

Get it together homes.

That's not the problem in this case.

>>720469886
Wrong.

>>720469943
Is it a duck or a rabbit

>>720469984
>Don't care if they have research in person it's a 50/50.

This is why you will always be a dumb fuck.

You trust your intuition over mathematical proofs and fact.

>>720470079
I got two boxes m8.
50/50 to get gold ball again.

The argument of the balls total is irrelevant, because only 2 boxes apply to me

>>720467436
50/50, either you do or you don't. I dunno why people always overthink or over analyze these things. It's always either you get the outcome you want or you don't? Is the cat alive? 50/50, does God exist? 50/50, am I just trolling? 50/50

>>720470207
>50/50 to get gold ball again.

But that's where you're wrong, you stupid faggot.

That's the same retarded logic as saying

>I got a lottery ticket. Either I win or I don't. 50/50

Do you understand?

>>720464390
50%

>>720470207
>>720470231
>>720470330
Wrong,

File: BertrandsBox.jpg (417KB, 880x1900px) Image search: [Google]

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2/3

See Bertrand's Box Paradox.

Simulation in next post.

File: BertrandBoxSimulation.png (152KB, 866x683px) Image search: [Google]

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Simulation confirming 2/3

>>720464390
66%

File: BertrandAnon.png (49KB, 1024x812px) Image search: [Google]

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2/3

>>720470383
>>720470414
>>720470466
Correct.

So if you know there is only gold and silver balls and you can only take from one box, the contents of the other boxes is irreverent. This means that there is a 50% chance to draw out another gold ball.

If you were able to switch boxes or chose the same box then there is a 40% chance you will draw a gold ball.

If you were to draw from a box then remove that box, effectively removing an additional ball at random, your chances would be anything from 25% to 50% depending on which set you took the original gold ball from.

Actually all you kiddos are wrong.

You have two boxes Alright so that's 50/50.
You have two gold balls and one silver ball so 2/3.
So 1/2 + 2/3

Well that's 3/6 + 4/6

So you have a 7/6 split in half
7/12.

Technically you got a 7/12 or a 58.33% chance of getting a gold ball.

So here's the questions what's Inbetween 66.66 and a 50/50.

File: Probability_box_balls_solution.png (42KB, 968x530px) Image search: [Google]

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2/3 you fucking retarded cunts.

>>720470369
Hmm disagree, but I'll give you some credit. I'd say there's a 50% chance I'm wrong

>>720470486
Wow this is next level retardation.

>>720470302
Lol you're not wrong with the lottery ticket.
You win or lose
50/50 as the GUARANTEED OUTCOME

>>720470614
Idk what if that's the right answer and the one closer to it is the more correct one

>>720470486
But 66% is closer to 58.33% than 50%

>>720464390
Well there are 3 boxes with 6 balls in total (only 3 gold balls). If the first ball you picked is gold then you know it's not the box with only silver balls. So the box your working with is either one of two boxes. It is either the box with 2 gold balls or the box with 1 gold and 1 silver. So there is a 50/50 chance here. The ball is either silver or gold. It's either the box with 2 gold or 1 of each. It's a 50% probability of getting another gold ball.

Please explain to be how this is wrong if it is wrong.

>>720470740
>But 66% is closer to 58.33% than 50%

I'm done for today /b/

This is cringy enough for a ylyl or cringe thread later

2/3 chance. This is 8th grade math.

>>720470740
Each point over is worth 2 though, it's the penalty for going over

>>720470794
Consider this alternate problem: >>720465051

Ps. It's still 50% wether the gold ball is gold or in fact still blue

>>720471044
Get out of this thread fucking troll! The balls are gold and silver, the only blue balls are yours!

>>720464390
66%, shit is getting old now OP.

>>720464390
There are 2 boxes that have gold.

Since you drew a gold ball, you know for certain that you drew from one of the TWO boxes.

That means you have a 50% chance of having chosen the 2 gold ball box, or a 50% chance of having drawn the 1 gold 1 silver box.

That means you have a 50% chance of the next ball being gold.

>>720470794
The you removed one gold ball right?

Well that can be from only 2 boxes eliminating the two silver balls all together.
So you got 3 balls now. (Because you pulled a gold one out). The question is asking probability of pulling a gold ball which is 2/3 because there's two more gold balls and 1 silver ball.
But in reality it's a 50% because of two scenarios.
Scenario 1 is the box you pulled from being the silver/gold. This means you have a 0% of gold.
Scenario 2 is the box you pulled from being gold/gold. This means you have a 100% of a gold ball.
It totals out at 50%, but the true answer is 2/3. I was trolling earlier saying 50% because it's correct in theory, but not in practice

>>720471181
50% is not correct in theory whatsoever.

>>720471280
You can do the tree shit, it's still 50% based on the box's themselves

>>720471170
not 50%, you pleb.
Since you picked a golden ball, it eliminates the last box and both silver balls.
Leaves you with 1 silver and 2 golden balls to pick.
2 to 1 that you will pick a golden, as in 66,666~% for gold and 33,33333~% silver.

>>720471348
No, it's not. The tress simply shows the different outcomes.

This problem has been solved theoretically using conditional probability, it's not hard.

>>720471280
50% is correct in theory and practice. when I was in school we demonstrated this exact problem and after letting the entire class do the experiment (22 people) the end result was 50% gold and 50% silver

>>720464390

Which boxes have gold? I can't see any type of yellow, greens or orange since I'm colorblind.
Cuz for me they are all grey and idk which is gold. Can someone mark the golds with G and silver with S plz

>>720471446
Then your teacher is a complete mongoloid. Refer to: >>720470414

>>720471368
Lol you can't be this retarded. Your logic is right until you said 2 to 1. Then you went off the rails.

>>720471547
Box 1: 2G
Box 2: 1G - 1S
Box 3: 2S

>>720471547
3 to the left are gold
3 to the right are silver

>>720471572

2 golden
1 silver

2 to 1

>>720471610
>>720471616

Thank you both.

Now I see why people are arguing over 2/3 and 1/2 kek

Who cares? I'll just take all 3 boxes and sell that shit.

>>720470414
>if box 3 is selected

LITERALLY IMPOSSIBLE GIVEN THE STATED PROBLEM
>you picked a box and pulled a gold ball

>>720471572
The problem states that you pulled a gold ball first which removes the set of 2 greys from the problem

>>720471700
No shit that's why it conveniently doesn't increment any of the counters retard. Learn2read code.

>>720471680
You telling me it's 1/2 or 2/1? Either way this is autistic

>>720471770
Yup, that's why it conveniently doesn't increment any of the counters in the simulation when this occurs.

>>720471795
You're checking for something that can't happen given the fact that you've already pulled one gold ball and are limited to reaching into the same box for another ball

>>720471680
This is not how anything in probability works.

You must be trolling.

>>720471845
fucking retards checking for something that could have only happened on the first pull but didn't, and therefore can't happen again

>>720464390
Reach into the box while there are btards around? Are you retarded?
I'm guessing there is a 97% chance I reach in and find out one of them shit in the box while I was pocketing the gold ball.

>>720464390
100% if you're King Midas

>>720471879
The simulation plays the game repeatedly.

> Picks a box
> Picks a ball
If it's Silver - END
If it's Gold - It's a valid trial, x = x+1
> Picks second ball
If it's silver - Fail, y=y
If it's gold - Success, y=y+1

Resulting probability = y/x

Common man

>>720471938
Refer to: >>720472020

>>720471957
Correct.

>>720472020
then why check the silver box at all?
the problem clearly states that the first ball you chose was gold. Eliminating the box with 2 silver balls from the equation

Come on guys I know it's fun to pretend to be retarded but the answer is 50%. Anyone who says otherwise is a liar or stupid.

>>720472077
He is just explicitly playing the game all the way through each time. It has no affect. He specifically wrote in the code "Do nothing" in this case.

He is playing the game, counting the number of time he has a valid game (x) and the number of successes that result (y). And then doing y/x.

>>720472176
you CANNOT chose the two silver balls in this scenario. Checking for that outcome gives the incorrect result.

it's like counting from 1 to 10 and then checking to see if you counted to 11

>>720472258
OMG you must be fucking retarded.

It's like if I say each time you see a red car count up by 1.

> Car passes
Blue - Fail, x=x
> Car passes
Red - Success, x=x+1
> Car passes
Yellow - Fail, x=x

Do you get it. HE DOESNT COUNT UP IN AN INVALID CASE MORON.

Dude just go kill yourself you are an utter waste of space.

> Picks a box
> Picks a ball
If it's Silver - END
If it's Gold - It's a valid trial, x = x+1
> Picks second ball
If it's silver - Fail, y=y
If it's gold - Success, y=y+1

Resulting probability = y/x

Read this carefully. Fucking read it carefully.

Chance has no memory. The all silver box can be ignored because it's removed in the first pass.

New choice: There are two boxes, one with a gold ball in them. Pick one.

>>720470414 is wrong because the problem dictates that you picked a gold containing box.

>>720464390

Clearly the answer is 2/3.

Number the balls from left to right as 1-6. You randomly choose a ball, and since it is gold, you know you chose 1, 2, or 3. If you chose 1 or 2, the other ball from that box will be gold, but if you chose 3 the other ball will be silver. Therefore, the odds of choosing another gold ball are 2/3.

>>720464390
67%

This is actually similar to the monty hall problem in so far that the problem description it self opens one of the false doors, by excluding the all silver box.

>>720473533
Right, if the problem had said "what are the odds of you getting two balls of the same color from the same box" the answer would be 2/3. But one box is ruled out.

>>720464390
66.6666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666%

File: image.jpg (42KB, 708x208px) Image search: [Google]

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>incoming fact

Anyone who says 66% is also a flat earth believing faggot

>>720473761
No retard.

>>720470538
You're so fucking brain dead

>>720471843
Not 1/2, that is 1 divided by 2 so 0,5 or 50%
Neither 2/1 that is 2 divided by 1 so 2 or 200%

I wrote 2 to 1, as in "your chance of drawing a golden ball over a silver ball is 2 times higher then your chance or drawing a silver ball".

Guess what is two times higher then 33%? 66%!

Odds are two to one, 66.666~% gold, 33,333~% silver.

its a jojo refrence

>>720475029
hur durrrrr