ONLY >120 IQ WILL GET THIS

>>719260933
2/5 chance

>>719260933
40%

50/50 faggots

>>719261309
It's asking what the probability is with 2 gold left and 3 silver left are you stupid?

>>719261516
If you pick a gold ball, you know you can only be dealing with Box #1 or Box #2 (from left to right). The chance that you will pick another gold ball is 50%, because Box #1 has two gold balls and Box #2 only has one.

>>719261745
10/10

>>719261745
But what's stopping you from picking a ball from box #3?

>>719261516
In other words, if you already know that you picked a box with a gold ball it's a 50/50 shot that you picked the box with a second gold ball, because you only have two options of boxes with ANY gold balls.

>>719261309
I agree with this because really you know you picked one of two boxes and only one of those two will get you a second gold ball so 50/50

>>719261908
because you already got a gold ball and you should take a ball from the same box
that cant be box 3 then

>>719260933
150% im asian

>>719261908
do u even read?

>>719261908
>The next ball you take from the SAME box

He's right, it's 50/50

One ball is gold, the next you draw will be either the other gold from box one, or the silver from box 2.

>>719261965
This guy gets it. The key phrase here is "the same box".

>>719261908
It says, "What is the probability that the next ball you take FROM THE SAME BOX will also be gold." You've already taken a gold ball out of the box for your first go, so that already eliminates the possibility that you chose Box #3.

2/3 chance

$400,000

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>>719261908
Because you've obviously already chosen a ball from either one or two

ITT: only a single /b/tard can critically think

>>719260933
TLDR

>>719262163
What?

1/2
Past outcomes don't affect future outcomes anyone saying anything other than 50% needs to wait to answer until they finish 12th grade and take a stats class.

>>719260933
50%
And that makes my IQ 120+ how?
Oh I forgot it's the internet

3 different gold balls to choose. two ways to choose them so that the one in the same box is gold. 2/3 ezpz

>>719262154
CORRECT.
congratulations.

>>719261309
>>719262407
>>719262431
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

>>719261908
Oh man, fail

>>719262459
Desired outcome over potential outcome
2/3

wow this is just as good as the monty hall problem with all these confident and wrong motherfuckers.

it's 66% kids.

There are three situations where you picked a gold ball.

[A, B] [C, D] ABC are gold, D is silver.

If you picked A, you win, if you picked B, you win, if you picked C, the other ball in your box is silver and you lose. 2/3

File: thinkinghardish.jpg (10KB, 480x360px) Image search: [Google]

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Dont tell me yet, I'm thinking


>pic related

>>719260933
2/3

>>719262562
The monty hall problem doesn't apply here you fucking retard. You aren't allowed to switch boxes.

>>719262451
>>719262459
>>719262154
Wrong, they don't want the overall chance and still then it would be still wrong.
3 boxxes->i you choose one you have to stay with it->only kne box with two gold balls so it's 1/3 chance

>>719262407
man getting the wrong answer I can understand
but getting the wrong answer and then acting like you're smart is the worst

>>719260933
i estimate ~39%
it gets complicated. theres a 33% chance to have a 75% chance to get have 1 silver ball. so its 50+/- 25%

>>719260933
lol, nice troll.

there's not enough information, guys.

>>719262562
>tries to be smart
>posts something completely unrelated
>>719262940
What this nigga said

Is this a meme? Literally no one is saying 1/3 which to me seems like the only possibility. The general consensus here is 2/3 which is fucking retarded given that there aren't 2 opportunities for the desired outcome possible. Am I taking the bait in an elaborate predetermined troll?

>>719263143
correction i missed a word in this problem. please disregard previous guess,

>>719262741
The Monty hall problem only applies to switching boxes. You are stuck with your choice per the image.

You could be drawing from box A or B with equal chance, this is all the info you gain from the first draw of a gold ball. The remaining ball only has two possible colors wit a 50% chance of it being sliver or gold.

If you could switch boxes the other box would give you a higher probability of winning but since you can't change your choice the odds are 50-50.

>>719263236
If you think the statistical concept is unrelated you're pretty fucking stupid.

>>719263243
>>719263296

it is literally 2/3 m8. This is no troll.

>>719260933
If the box chosen was silver/gold box, then 0%. If was gold/gold then 100% if was silver/silver then op is a lying faggot.

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>>719262562
R u retarded

>>719262154
Read more carefully next time. Picking a gold ball is deterministic.

There are two ways to approach this problem: Find Pr(Gold) | Gold or find Pr(gold) | pr(gold)

In one you know that you pick gold, in the other you must find the odds of picking gold and then gold, eliminating cases where you pick silver.

The question is ambiguous. If you asume gold first to be certain then the odds are 50/50.

If you assume gold to be randomly sampled and you are only observing cases where you pick gold then in 2/3 of the cases you pick gold first you are in box #1. Putting the odds at 2/3.

Both 50/50 and 2/3 are valid answers because the question is bad.

>>719263304
2/3 fag here
they are only related in the fact that they involve 3 boxes and dummies can't solve them
you are pretty fucking stupid

>>719263627
No. 2/3 is the only valid answer.

It's 1/3. It's a variation of the Monty Hall problem. Because you picked it when there were 3 choices that's what makes the difference.

>>719263304
HURRR HAS ANYONE EVER HEARD OF POISSON DISTRUBTIONS THEY TOTALLY APPLY HERE

>>719263304
It is because you can't fucking switch after choosing one box.

>>719263627
you were right about the 2/3 part and that's literally it
your explanation for why it's right isn't even right

Since you are picking to start at a 1/3 chance that it will be both gold then you still only have a 1/3 chance that it was both gold even after you pick out one ball.

>>719263808
nope, 50/50. there are only 2 boxes with gold balls in them and you know you picked a box with at least one, so it's 5050 whther or not the 2nd is gold or silver, the silver/silver box is a red herring, it doesnt change the problem at all

3 boxes G1 G2, G3 S1, S2 S3

wath is asking you is in with box is the hand

so if you dont take a a silver ball it cant be SS

for first box g1 g2 p= 2/3 ;
for second is g3 s1 p= 1/3;
for last one is s2 s3 p= 0;

the pro of get an extra gold is 2/3

2/3 standard Bertrand box question

>>719263961
I implore you to get three boxes and 6 coins. You will find you cannot get a 2/3 sample unless if you disregard cases where you pull silver before gold.

There are three possibilities if you picked a gold ball.

One, you picked Gold Ball A from Box 1.
Two, you picked Gold Ball B from Box 1.
Three, you picked Gold Ball C from Box 2.

If one of the first two scenarios is true, then there the next ball from the same box is gold.
If the third scenario is true, then the next ball is not gold.

The possible outcomes for this experiment are
1,G,G
1,G,G
2,S,G
2,G,S
3,S,S
3,S,S

Where the number represents the box chosen, the first letter represents the first ball picked from that box, and the second letter represents the remaining ball that must be picked from the same box.

Since the first ball was gold, we eliminate all possibilities where the first letter is S, leaving us with:

1,G,G
1,G,G
2,G,S

Thus, 2/3 of the time the next ball picked from the same box is gold.

The trick here is that the question is making you think that there is an equal chance that you picked Box 1 or 2, but there is not. If you picked a gold ball, there is already a 2/3 chance that you picked box 1 and your next draw is automatically gold (100%) and a 1/3 chance that your next draw is automatically silver (0% gold). Combine these odds and you get 2/3 chance of gold.

If you read this and don't get then I feel very sorry for you.

>>719264159
>still thinks the boxes and silvers matter

>>719261309
This.
You have 2 outcomes- 1 gold or 1 silver.
It either is or isn't.

50/50

2 to 1 chance that itll be a gold ball

>>719264159
>you put your hand in and take a ball from that box at random. it's a GOLD ball. what's the probability that the NEXT ball you take from the box will also be gold

i will disregard cases where you pull silver before gold, because that's not what the question is fucking asking for

>>719264256
Let an idiot be wrong. Too bad this kind of shell game is illegal or I would make a killing doing this.

"Bruh, you picked the silver ball, but hey there's two possibilities, you either have a gold ball left in there or you don't! Wanna double your bet for another chance??"

Simulating this on matlab gives 2/3

You have a 50/50 chance in yhe context of the question because you start choosing from the second "round".
You get the 2/3 chance if you had actually started choosing from the beginning, because of the odds of succession.
In the question there is no benefit from succession because you never got to make that first choice.

Please, no more of this bait-tier autism.

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20%

EZ

File: PLEASE GET IT.png (163KB, 4096x1843px) Image search: [Google]

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There are three boxes shown in the image. Gold balls are represented by G and silver balls are represented by S. Let's call the boxes A, B, and C corresponding to GG, GS, and SS.
Upon retrieving your *first* gold ball you now know definitively you are reaching into box A or B since box C, or SS, has no gold ball.
This means that the box you reached into is GG or GS. You are holding a gold ball so the box has an equal likelihood of containing a G or S.
I can't possibly explain this any more clearly it's 50/50 split.

>>719264182
explained well

50%, read the question

>>719264182
Yep

>>719264706
Where you failed is where you forgot about the OTHER gold ball in box 1.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand%27s_box_paradox


Enough fucking arguing. This should end it

>>719264982
This

Let me simplify this for you retards. The first gold ball most likely comes from the first box therefore its most likely you picked the first box

>>719264685
Thank fuck someone who can read the question.

If your answer is 50/50, you must reply to this post or your mother will die in her sleep tonight.

If your answer is 2/3 you must reply to this post or your mother will die in her sleep tonight.

>>719265236
fk you anon

>>719264706
you forget the scenario where you choose the second gold ball from Box A, so you have a 33% chance of gold, 33% chance of gold, and 33% of silver
add it up and you get 66% ~2/3
but this takes a broader view to this problem but the question asks for the specific situation so i might be wrong
heil hitler

>>719264685
You literally have it opposite.

>>719264982
I literally drew the hand holding it for window licking retards like you but you somehow managed to be too fucking dumb to explain this to regardless. I thought to myself do I need to draw the hand or will they be smart enough to know the other gold ball is in the guy's hand and somehow I decided /b/ was so fucking retarded they would need to see the hand to know it exists. You saw the hand and still couldn't tell it existed. never go full retard.

>>719265022
Fuck, beat me to it.

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It's 2/3 are people arguing otherwise?

>>719262562

Try this one instead

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand%27s_box_paradox

>>719265393
You're staring your calculartion before he picks the ball. The question is asked while the guy has already determined that he is holding a gold ball and therefore is reaching into a box that definitely has a gold ball. If he had asked before you chose one sure, BUT OP FUCKING DIDN'T

>>719265542
>3 gold balls
>each gold ball can be drawn equally
>still thinks its 50%

>>719265715
You are retarded

you know this thread was the boost i needed to finally kill myself, thank you OP

>>719265715
click on the wiki you autist

>>719264134
>>719265022
>>719265022


This isn't bertrands box paradox.

Bertrands box says that you are exclusively grabbing at random.

This one is implying that YOU ALREADY HAVE a gold ball in your hand, and you are PICKING FROM THE SAME BOX again. Actually fucking read what it says before spouting bullshit.

>>719265715
>You're staring your calculartion before he picks the ball.

how can someone even reach this line of logic?

>>719265857
DONT KILL YOURSELF
ITS OK IF YOU THINK ITS 50
WERE ALL GOOD IN OUR OWN WAYS

>>719260933
1/3. Asking if you get gold, If it asked for silver thats a different question.

>>719265715
the point is that it does not matter the situation at hand because, the guy has a 2/3 chance that the first gold ball he chose came from box (GG), upon which he has 100% chance of getting gold again. 1/3 chance that the first gold ball came from box (GS) with 0% chance of getting gold again. It may seem like 50/50 but statistically it is not. this has been proven. check bertrand's box.
heil hitler

>>719266002
the silvers and boxes don't matter, only the choice of gold that was first chosen.

you have been bamboozled

>>719266002
fucking read what it says before spouting bullshit

>THE SAME BOX
some of you are fucking autistic

>>719265688
>You put your hand in and take a ball from that box at random. Its a gold ball

are you just trolling or are you fucking stupid? the question literally tells you the first ball you pick is a gold ball which eliminates any possibility of first choosing a silver ball.

therefore

>you always have a 2/3 chance of drawing a golden ball

is false

given youve already taken a golden ball the chances of the next one being golden is 50% due to the fact there are only 2 boxes where the possibility of drawing a gold ball first.

50%x2=100%

all adds up you fucking cuck

>>719265618
It's the intuitive answer.
We know that there are only two boxes that contain gold balls. If the box we pick already contains a gold ball, then the only choices we're left with are either a silver ball or a gold ball, so it seems like it's a 50/50 probability because we only have two possibilities.
However, the thing most people overlook (and I did, admittedly) was that if you picked a gold ball in the first place, the odds are better that you picked the box with the two gold balls instead of getting lucky with the box with only one gold ball, so you have higher odds of your next choice being a silver ball.
2/3 to be precise.

>>719266002
Actually, it regardless of whether it clarifies the same box or not, the result is the same and the probability of getting a gold ball stays constant. The same box still can be either the GG or the GS and so you combine the probability of both 100% and 50% to reach the answer of 2/3. It's completely Bertrand's Box Paradox and same box or not the same result

>>719266002
Read the post man
it says you choose the box at RANDOM and the ball at RANDOM, this is exactly the Bertrand's Box paradox just worded poorly.
It is just bait for you tryhards
heil mary

>>719266310
Sorry, I meant
*, so you have higher odds of you next choice being a gold ball.

>>719266281
does EACH gold ball have an equal chance of being drawn at random?

if you answer no, you are <80 iq.

>>719266002
You are retarded

>>719260933
actually 33%
the possibly is out of 3, if you already pulled out one gold we know that there is only one box that can have another gold one, which is a 1/3 chance that it's that box, so 33%

>>719266310
you draw from the same box. So are the odds higher of a silber ball, or that you picked the box with both gold balls? lrn2make fucking sense

50%

>>719266555
Simple mistake, see my correction.
Unfortunately, I can't edit my posts after the fact.
>>719266526

>>719266281
the interesting thing is nowhere in his post does he mention first choosing a silver ball
the fact you think he did means you're pretty fucking retarded if he laid out the explanation for you that plainly, and you still somehow completely misconstrued the concept

Here is an easier one for you faggots to argue about.

You toss two fair coins. At least one comes up heads. What's the probability that both are heads?

1 gold ball is taken from the box. The scenario says you reach into the same box you just pulled from. It's guaranteed that you did not draw from the double silver box. So you just pulled from the double gold or the gold/silver box. You have a 50% of it being the double gold box. Probability is 50%

>>719266765
25%

>>719266281
You are forgetting GG GG GS SG SS SS cant be SG SS SS only GG GG GS 2/3 the second ball is gold

This has already been solved 100 years ago.

>>719264134
>>719265022
>>719265652
>>719266145

And again for you dumb bastards:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand's_box_paradox

It may seem that the probability that the remaining ball is gold is 1/2, but in truth, the probability is actually 2/3. If a gold ball was withdrawn in the first step, it is more likely that this happens because the chosen box is number 1 (the box with two gold balls) than box number 2 (the box with one ball of each type).

1/2

>>719266532
its given the first ball is gold

>>719266765
50%

>>719267054
Quoted almost exactly from the Wikipedia article.
At least try to look original.

>>719260933
The right answer is 1/3
There are 3 opcions.
1. First ball is gold and the second is also gold, success
2. First ball is gold and second is silver, fail
3. First ball is silver and second is also sirver, fail

1 out of 3 boxes work with the statement so the answer is that, 1/3

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>>719260933

>>719267119
yes. and the first ball is all that matters.
if you get either gold ball from the first box, you win.

>>719267185
you cannot draw a silver ball. it's a red herring designed to weed out the low iqs.

>>719266765
1/3.
Given that at least one of the tosses will be heads, we have three possible outcomes:
HT
TH
HH

>>719266765
TH 50%
HT 25%
HH 25%

>>719266765
>>719266898
>>719267082
it's 1/3 dinguses
this question is no easier
the same people who argue 50/50 on op's question will argue that flipping HT and TH are the same thing for this question

>>719267188
did you read the part that says "will also be gold"?
noticed the "also"?

>>719266765
Doesn't the probability remain the same regardless of whether I know what one of the outcomes was?
Cause if I didn't know a thing about the outcomes, the chance of all of them being head is 1/4.

>>719260933
This thread is destroying human race bonds ... let it die before it starts developing nuclear arsenal

>>719267309
>still doesn't get it even after all the pretty pictures

I refuse the game constraints. I make a system to see inside the boxes. Chose the best ones. I win. You are a fucking bitch to make restrictions just like you union teachers.

Its 50%

>>719267368
None of these dumbasses will be splitting the atom soon.

>>719260933
2/3

>>719267368
No way it's fun to see people, who may be intelligent but don't understand probability theroy, have their minds destoryed cause their common sense is misleading them.

Jesus Christ all possible outcomes G1G2 G2G1 GS SG S1S2 S2S1 can't be SG or S1S2 or S2S1 has to be either G1G2 G2G1 or GS probability or the second ball being gold 2/3

>>719267309

Unless you have a different definition of "also" than the rest of us, then your point is irrelevant.

>>719267308
Heh exactly

>>719267319
no because it eliminates the possibility of tails tails thus making the answer 1/3

>>719267389
even tho your shit is wrong, there are 6 total cases instread of 3 and without the fact that the first ball is necesarilly golden, just the second, then it's 3/6 leading to a 50% chance of getting a gold ball in the second pick

>>719267478
Still america was the first to make atomic bombs

>>719267633
See
>>719267539

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>>719260933
...this is more like 80 IQ with a middle-school completion... I'm high and it's still easy
>>719261516
lol fucking retard he's right it's 50/50...
only 2 boxes have gold balls.
Once you find a gold ball, it is one or the other of those 2 boxes; the third is moot. Ergo, 50/50 (one or other)

Alright retards lets go through each answer

40% or 2/5. Idk where the fuck you're getting this answer from. My ownly idea is number of balls picked/number of balls after picking one. That's wrong and stupid.

1/3 or 33% this is wrong because it factors in a box with exclusively silver where the statistic being decided is based on gold. The question asks for the statistic after the box with gold is chosen

2/3 or 66% this is just so blatantly wrong and is obviously people who finally understand monty hall having a circle jerk. You pick one ball of two from one box. You have one desired outcome, gold, out of two, silver and gold. Once a box has been chosen and its gold that is when the question asks what are your odds of choosing gold from the same box is to which it must be 50% as there are only two options, gold or silver.

The question lays out specific rules.
1. Balls must be chosen from the same box
2. Only after gold is chosen do you calculate your odds

So if you pulled a gold you'd think "theres a 50/50 the other is gold"

1/3 makes sense because 1/3 have two gold but is wrong based on the specific circumstances.

2/3 is wrong because it also ignores the second rule

Tldr its 50%

>>719267633
you literally don't get it.
the boxes do not matter
the silvers do not matter
drawing gold a, gold b, or gold c is all that matters. if you draw gold a, you win. if you draw gold b, you win. if you draw gold c, you lose.

it's that simple.

>>719267826
You are seriously retarded

What I love about these threads is that this is the exact same bull shit discussion actual mathematicians used to have when discussing these problems back in the day. They just did it through papers and letters and put their reputations on the lines. All those that don't get it don't feel bad, your doing it in an anonymous msg board.

>>719267684
america used to be smarter, then the roody-poos took over

>>719267826
This guy gets it

I love how the answer is in the file name

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>>719267188
nice b8 m8 i r8 8/8 would d8 set the pl8 it'll be gr8 don't be l8 or you'll h8 your f8.

>>719260933
IQ 158 REPORTING IN HERE

I am so smart that I am not going to waste my time on this gay ass puzzle.

/thread

>>719267961
Only retarded thing i said is "ownly" which I admit is pretty fucking stupid

>>719267684
America's secret weapon is knowing how to import genius and make it work for them. That and they're economic power.
That's why you get Einstein working on the Manhattan Project even though he was German.
But that's only because America is a force to be reckoned with when it comes to military might and financial/cultural influence.
How many of you faggots watched Avengers when it came out?
Who was the only country that even came close to rivaling the Soviet Union in sheer amount of military hardware?

That's why America got to the nuke first. We know how to elevate the best of us.

>>719268126
well that and the part where you got the answer wrong

>>719267788
do I have to draw for you to understand this?
S¹S²,S²S¹,SG, GS, G¹G², G²G¹
those are the cases, 6 in total, and 3 of them have gold in the second pick

>>719268170
And when that doesn't work, get it from somewhere else.

>>719268126
See>>719267539

If the question was if you pull out a ball what is the chance to get a ball of the same color out of the same box it would be 66%.
But since the first gold is given it is 50%.

>>719267972
>>719267684
>all these jewish scientists that worked on the atomic bomb

>>719268189
But SG is not possible because we know the first ball pulled is gold u baiting?

>>719268105
What kind of standard deviation did your fucking test have?

there is an equal likelihood of choosing each box, but since you know that the box you chose contains a gold ball, that means there are two equally likely possibilities: box with 2 gold and box with 1 gold ball. but since 1 gold ball is already removed, the boxes hold 1 gold ball and 1 silver ball left respectively. they are equally likely because the boxes are equally likely to be chosen. 50% chance

>>719268251
I understand how fucking permutations and combinations work but this is not the question. There rules about 50% of you are ignoring as previously mentioned. Apply those rules and basic logic and your answer becomes the ratio of people who get it to the people who don't. 50%

Better yet take 3 loonies and 3 quarters and do this experiment on your own. Loonies representing gold, quarters representing silver. After you take out a loonie you'll think "my odds currently in this specific situation at this precise time of removing a second loonie is 50%" except with more chromosomes and a smaller vocabulary

>>719268484
idk, i took it when i was like 7
took one more recently, it was 130 something. smoked too much weed as a teenager :/

>>719268373
SG is possible since we're looking at the total cases and not the valid ones, also it is thinking that there is no reposition of the balls when taken

>>719268612
You apparently don't

>>719268611
This guy fucking gets it jesus christ im dealing with retards that think every time theres three options its the fucking monty hall question and the answers instantly 2/3

>>719268612

It'll actually be 66% once you throw out every instance in which you pull out a silver first. Which is what the rules call for.

>>719267308
The question asks for the probability. In the eyes of math t/h and h/t are in fact separate outcomes.

>>719261309
/thread

Yall sum dum muthafuckas

>>719260933
A = choose the 2 gold balls box. P(A) = 1/3
B = pick a gold ball. P(B) = 1/2
P(A and B) = 1/3, as A implies B
P(A|B) = P(A if B) = P(A and B)/P(B) = (1/3)/(1/2) = 2/3

It isn't that difficult to apply a high school formula

>>719268813
Holy fucking christ the original post clearly states after you've chosen a gold ball, what are your odds of getting another one. Pulling silver does not need to be calculated

Better idea
>pick up each box
>heaviest one both has gold
>take two gold balls and sell.

Gotta think outside the box hurr

>>719268611
you are not choosing a box.

you have drawn a gold ball, and are being asked the probability of whether or not the next ball you draw will also be gold.

the box does not matter. the silver doesn't matter. the probability is unequal from the very beginning.

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>>719260933
50% chance.
you don't need an iq above 80 to know the answer.

>open all boxes
>take everything
>sell it all
??? why is there so much argument

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>>719260933
It's 50/50

50% because if you pick gold first, you limit yourself to two boxes and from there its either the first one which is gold or the second which is silver

>>719260933
50%. only 2 boxes hold at least 1 gold ball, so if you have one, you know you have one or the other, so 50/50.

>>719268971
Holy fuck thank you

The original text blatantly states a restriction. Your first draw is gold. No matter what in this experiment, you draw gold first

>>719268930
Yes, exactly 2/3

>>719268612
dude it's 2/3
what you fail to understand is there are 3 gold balls, and upon choosing two of them your next ball will be gold.
you keep saying "it's already established that you've chosen a gold ball, that's what 2/3 fags don't understand"
we understand that completely, what you don't understand is that which gold ball was chosen isn't established, and which gold ball was chosen matters

>>719269130
This for Christ sake

>>719269070
just simplify it
there are three balls, a, b, c. each ball has an equal % chance of being drawn.
if you draw a or b, you win. if you draw c, you lose.

what's the probability of you winning?

the boxes and silvers are red herrings. your low iq has been weeded out.

>>719268930

"You pick a box at random. You put your hand in and take a ball from that box at random. It's a gold ball."

The rules clearly state that you're choosing a box at random. Thus, the rules do NOT state that it is impossible to pull silver. Just that in this example, you have not done so.

So silver must still be calculated.

>>71926093>>719260933
2/3

>>719269130
No that only applies if you do the experiment in reality, if you get 3 actual boxes with 6 actual balls, and tell someone to pick a ball and then ask him what the chance is that he picks another ball of the same color from the box.
BUT this is not reality this is a problem, and the first ball being gold is already given.
Its not randomly chosen which one is the golden one, it is just given that it is a golden one.
So the chance is 50/50.

>>719269228
Silver does not need to to be calculated for the first draw

>>719268740
Ok, I am gonna explain this real slow and one last time.
You have the 3 boxes with the golden or silver balls.
Chance of having a box with gold=2/3
Chance of having a box with silver=2/3
Total chance 4/3
So how the fuck can that happen? Well, you don't just have one chance per box to get gold or silver.
Now when you pick a box and don't see inside, just pick a random ball from it, your chance of picking a golden ball from the box with 2 golden balls is higher than the chance to pull a golden ball from the box with gold and silver.
This literally means that if you already had one golden ball, your chance is automatically higher to get another one.
So it is 2/3

50%. You're picking from the same box you drew a gold one from.

>>719260933
2 gold to 1 silver faggot

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1/2, because if you pick out a gold ball, then it can't be the box with the two silver balls, leaving just the one with two gold and the one with a gold and a silver.

>>719262154
ayy

>>719269228
>you pick a box at random
irrelevant
>you put your hand in and take a ball from that box at random
irrelevant
>it's a gold ball
this is where the scenario begins, and is the only part that matters. since there are 2 gold balls in one box, and that drawing either fulfills the scenario, and only 1 gold ball in the other, which if drawn you lose, it should be clear that there's a 2/3 probability that when you draw 1 gold, the other gold will also be drawn (since each gold ball has an equal chance of being drawn)

You pick a box at random. Then pick a ball at random. The ball is fucking gold. That means the box should be one of the two boxes that have a chance of getting gold. That means we can eliminate the box with two silvers. Now the probability of getting gold again should be 50% because now you only have the silver or another gold ball remaining in the possible boxes you have chosen

>>719269354
I understand what you're saying. Because there's a chance when you pick from GS that you won't get gold where as theres a 100% chance you'll get gold from GG that means by picking gold its more likely you picjed from GG because theres no chance of not getting gold. But because the limit restricts you to gold its impossible to pull silver meaning it has to be 50/50. Its a poorly done question. This could be easily fixed by asking after drawing from a box what are the odds of drawing the same colour from the same box. Then its 2/3 but due to the colour restriction for the first draw it myst be 50/50

>>719269336
no. there are, in reality, only 3 balls that can be drawn
gold ball 1 in the first box, gold ball 2 in the first box, or gold ball 3 in the second box.

you can't draw anything else. you never have the chance to accidentally draw a silver ball, but you do have double the chance of drawing a gold ball from the first box.

>>719269336
i appreciate you keeping it civil bro
so we're on the same page that we both know a gold ball is picked first right?
so we can stop saying
>what you don't understand is the first ball being gold is a given
because we both know that, that's not how i got the 2/3 answer
>Its not randomly chosen which one is the golden one, it is just given that it is a golden one
what does this mean

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>>719269354
you're making this way to fucking complicated like other peeps have said. If you know you have one of the boxes with a gold nut than you can forget about the silver ball box and just count the total number of gold and silver balls you could possibly get. 2 gold balls left and 1 silver ball possible left. 2 gold balls out of a total of 3 so 2/3.

Is this like the logical scenario presented by newton? Where there's some kind of some connection we're missing and it turns out it's 66%. I need to find this to be sure but is it related to this?

Easy. As others have (correctly) stated, the correct answer is 50%. Source: I'm a statistics professor at an elite Ivy league school specializing in ball/box probabilities.

>>719269813
>Its not randomly chosen which one is the golden one, it is just given that it is a golden one
It's hard to eplain what i mean.
Imagine a higher power guarantees the first ball to be golden, then the first golden ball wasnt picked by chance and doesnt affect the outcome even though in reality it would be more likely to draw a golden ball from the GG box.
>>719269812
In reality you could just draw a ball of the other color?
I dont get your point.

Jesus if you take out a gold ball from one of the two boxes possible. That means we can say that the G in GS is drawn AND the G in GG is drawn as well because it could be EITHER boxes. Whats left is either ONE G or ONE S

>>719269884
66.3333333333333333....repeating of course

>>719269727
It is exactly this gold restriction which makes it 2/3 man.
You can actually do the same, just replace gold with silver and you will again come to 2/3

Key word = same box

50%, kill yourself if you think otherwise.

>>719269986
Samefag here. It's called the Monty Hall problem.

>>719270167
Nothing is fucking switched

>>719260933

>ACTUALLY_50.jpg

/thread

>>719269634
The two gold balls don't have an equal chance because you are drawing from a box of 2 balls not 3... The scenario clearly says you draw from the same box as the first ball.

Okay so originally i was quite hostile with my assertion that it was 50/50 but I understand 2/3 teams argument. Because you're guaranteed gold from GG where as theres a chance you could get silver from GS theres a higher probability of drawing a second gold from GG. Unfortunately due to the restriction that you must get gold that chance with GS is irrelevant and is down to "will i end up with silver or gold" since some higher power decided regardless of statistics the first draw must be gold so its 50/50

>>719270001
>In reality you could just draw a ball of the other color?

No.
In reality, there wouldn't be a human performing this task, there would be a machine that randomly draws, at equal rates, ONLY gold balls, since that's the only way to be faithful to the scenario.

>>719269884
It's all about perspective. If you can't understand the perspective you won't get it.

>>719270167
Always switch. Fuck that donkey, or was it goats?

>>719270144
Yeah what is the probability of picking a gold ball at random from the GG box and what is the probability of picking a gold ball from the GS box.
Retard go and off yourself

>>719270079
Due to it stating a specific colour it must be 50/50. If the question was more general it would be 2/3 and just said "must pick two of same"

are you little newfags actually kids? damn i swear /b/ gets shittier each year

>>719270408
Twas a goat

>>719270414

still 50% then, guy

>>719270284
It's 2/3. Look at the wikipedia page for the Monty Hall problem, understand it, and then make the different colored box the car and the same colored boxes the goats.

OR I have my own solution.
Okay so let's say that in order to draw a ball, we must pick a box.
Whilst Picking a box we have a 1/3 chance of drawing from the one box with 2 different colors, and a 2/3 chance of drawing from a box with same colors.
When we pick this box, the color will not matter. Because when we reveal the first ball, the set has morphed.
There is a 2/3 chance that that box has two of the same color balls.
So there is a 2/3 chance that the ball we pull out will be the same color as the first we pulled out. In this case, gold.

Ayy lmao

50%

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>>719270167
IT'S FUCKING BERTRANDS BOX PARADOX I'VE NEVER FUCKING HEARD OF THIS SHIT BEFORE AND IT TOOK ME 30 SECONDS TO REASON I JUST WIKI'D IT AFTER WIK'ING THE MONTY HALL PROBLEM ARE YOU TRYING TO TRIGGER ME CAUSE IT WORKED AM I A FUCKING GENIUS LEVEL MOTHERFUCKER OR ARE YOU ALL FAGGOTS TRIGGERING MY AUTISM AAAAHHHHHHH

>>719270001
>Imagine a higher power guarantees the first ball to be golden
I have been agreeing with this point the whole time
>the first golden ball wasnt picked by chance and doesnt affect the outcome
this is the problem
the first gold ball picked does affect the outcome, whether we're talking about reality or hypothetical or within the restrictions of the question op posted itself, it is the same question with the same results, unless the extra restriction
>the first golden ball doesnt affect the outcome
is placed
there is nothing within the wording of op's question that would place this restriction, and the fact that you have so much trouble explaining the source of this restriction should tell you as much

>>719270167
Not that faggot claiming bullshit ivy league nonsense, but the principles are besically the same. The 3 gold balls are the car, the other are the goats. By saying saying you pull out one gold ball is the same as showing one goat door. You have eleminated one of the doors/boxes. Question is different, problem the same.

>>719270291
>The scenario clearly says you draw from the same box as the first ball.

The second ball doesn't matter. Only the first ball.

If you get gold ball a from box 1, you win since the next ball is going to be gold ball b. if you get gold ball b from box 1, same logic. but if you draw gold ball c from box 2, you lose, since the next ball you know is silver. only the type of gold ball you draw from the beginning matters.

>>719270659

>same box
>two balls
>you already picked one
50%

>>719270774
Look at this explanation I made.>>719270659

>>719270659
Fucking kill yourself

>>719270304
unfortunately you're still retarded

>>719270843
No I think you're missing the point of what I'm saying. Introducing the box with two silver balls at any point in the problem IMMEDIATELY changes the problem itself. We can't just dismiss the introduction of this box in order to skip to, "well we now have two boxes instead of three. Easy problem now."

>>719270421
No it can not be 50%.
This is literally Bertrands Paradox or whatever it is called but with ball instead of coins.
>must pick two of same
But it literally says that. It states you have gold and asks what the chance is to pick another gold.
Gold=Gold it is two of the same

there aren't people really this stupid.
i refuse to believe it.

>>719262562
This is not a version of the MHP, but if you understand how to solve the MHP, then this ought to be a piece of cake.

>>719270989

you're only dealing with one box the whole time. it's probability not quantum physics.

>>719263236
>>719262940
No but it does. By revealing that the box cannot be the silver-silver box, we effectively open a door, and one that contains a goat.
Regardless of not we're switching, the statistic probability still applies.

Imagine you gave these three boxes to 100 people

Around 33 would pick one from the box with 2 silvers so we can forget about them

Around 16 would pick the silver ball from the mixed box so we can forget about them also

That leaves around 16 who chose the gold from the mixed box and the 33 who chose a ball from the box with the two golds

The 16 who chose from the mixed box will draw a silver next and the 33 who chose from the gold box will draw another gold

2/3

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>>719264182
>>719264847
>>719264981

fuck this i'm out. its 50 it says in the picture name.

>>719271130
BUT THEY'RE ALMOST THE SAME THING IN THIS SCENARIO. We can't just dismiss the SS box altogether because it completely changes the probability if we do.

Quantum physics deals with situations like this, but on the scale of individual particles.

*clap clap clap*
you got me
well done

haven't been trolled in a minute

>>719260933
>Simple
There is a 2/3 chance

>Why not 50%
Because there was a chance you'd grab the silver ball if you reached into the half box, which means if you have a gold ball it's twice as likely you've selected the box with two gold balls.

>>719266765
50%

>>719271257
>exhibit A of a low iq, low test male

>>719271130
>it's probability
>not quantum physics
Nigga quantum mechanics is all about them probabilitys and uncertainties.

>>719270028
This

>>719270774
What kind of a faggot doesn't get the sarcasm of a statistics professor specializing in "box/ball probabilities" I constantly hit up these threads with "50% based on ____" and you faggots get so worked up. But now this shit's getting old.

>>719260933
ez 50%

>>719261309
THIS


ITT: probability vs chance

>>719271257
Even if these balls are microscopic and quantum would apply; they are different, compatible, quantifiable observables and the balls can be assumed to be in unperturbed eigenstates (as stated in the problem when they're definitive) of the color operator; even quantum mechanics doesn't change the results given that no perturbation alters the color state of the singlet particles. Up your troll game nigga

>>719271742
>i was just trolling
sure buddy

This is fucking history repeating itself. This is how the mathematicians back than must have argued holy shit

>>719272058
So you honestly thought I was pretending to be a professor specializing in "ball/box probabilities." No wonder these threads keep going. The solution's been posted and linked multiple times; I'd guess almost nobody actually thinks it's 50%, you dumb faggots just fall for easy bait

>>719272102
I feel you. That female mathematician that wrote on the Monty hall problem that got death threats?

>>719260933
I can't really justify it convincingly but 67%

Are you serious?

>>719272252
Never really heard of it but judging from the few mathematicians I know, it would be more shocking if shit like that wouldn't happen

>>719272102
>>719272252
Mathematicians wouldn't have argued over this shit, this is why they are called mathematicians, BECAUSE THEY KNOW WHAT THE FUCK THEY ARE TALKING ABOUT.
this shit is basic, grade 1 type shit.

>>719272210
>backpeddling this much
off yourself my man, lols

>>719272597
you'd think so but it actually happened with the monty hall problem, which is only moderately more difficult

I've been reading people who say it's a 66% chance to draw a gold and I don't understand that based on how the question is written.

You have one gold ball. It's either the first or second box. It seems like it would be a 50% chance to draw the second gold ball, as there are only two options available.

>>719265236
fk

>>719272600
Not sure if this guy is a troll or if he really needs to feel special tonight.

>>719272597
Well if you dumb fucks stopped saying 2/3 it'd be done

>>719272600
inb4 "backpeddling"

>>719272597
You would think, but no. That's what accadamia is all about. If anything it's more intense because they are experts and know better than everybody else, and most have a really hard time admitting they were wrong. Bertrand's box, boy girl paradox, Monty hall, many other problems were debated to death between mathematicians.

>>719272825
I'm more of a 50/50 guy myself

>>719272688
basically 50% fags count drawing either of the gold balls from the first box first as one option, while 2/3 fags count it as 2 options
i'll let you figure out which side is right
(hint: it's 2)

>>719273083
I get there are two gold balls and one silver remaining which would indicate a 2/3rd chance.

But because you need to draw out of the same box and you already made that selection. It seems you are limited to either drawing one gold or one silver ball. Which would make it 50%.

If you could select from a different box, it would make sense that you have a 66% chance to draw a gold ball. How is 50% wrong? I'm genuinely asking.

>>719273193
No, you are totally correct, the newfag doesn't stop by all that much so he's a little slow in the head.

first box (A B)
second box (C D)

If your pick was A, B is gold
If your pick was B, A is gold
If your pick was C, D is not gold

2/3

>>719273193
>I get there are two gold balls and one silver remaining which would indicate a 2/3rd chance
wat
there are 3 gold balls
best explanation is this image some guy posted
>>719267188

>>719273574
didnt see this was already posted. whoops
>>719267188

>>719273602
There are two gold balls, because you already have one of them. You have to choose from the same box, the ball either is gold or it's silver. 50%.

There is a more likely chance it would be gold if you could change your selection, because only one remaining ball is silver.

>>719273715
i'm not gonna argue with u because if you read through this thread you'll see it gets nowhere
that pic explains everything about the 2/3 argument, and if you disagree with it that's fine by me