It's that time again faggots. I'll even help you out

Actually you don't double your chances, the show is rigged so you will get the goat no matter what. At least you can trade it with an ISIS for an AK

>>713951684
Forgot to inb4

>INB4
but I want a goat
I'm Muslim
The other door has a goats ass

>>713951534
switcing doors brings your odds up to 2/3

>>713952187
Correct.
Which is double 1/3

it relies on the host choosing the wrong door after the first is chosen. then, there are only two.

>>713952348
Which gives you a 66% chance to win if you switch

No>>713952590

>>713951534
but what if i want a goat?

>>713952672
But it's yes, regardless of what you think.
Just because you don't understand it doesn't mean it's wrong

>>713952757
Then you got inb4'd
>>713952002

>>713951534
Read up on the monty hall problem. It's all detailed somewhere else. There is also a monty hall simulation you can play with.

>>713953139
Why are you saying that to OP?
He clearly understands this already

>>713953270
Its for everyone else. Also OP doesn't understand this because he's a faggot.

>>713953528
Not this time I'm not.
Making a thread that causes autistic rage and relentless arguing isn't faggotry.

Provided the thread stays one page one long enough to catch a few faggots that get triggered and keep it up there.

Once these take off they almost always hit bump limit

It's 50/50
Two choices, equal chances

Bumping for argurage

>>713953916
No

Its amazing how slow these threads are while Americans are sleeping.
Americans awake, autism overload.

It's about lunchtime in burgerland, So the Americans should be waking up fairly soon

You ALWAYS keep the first door you pick. Don't let those insecure faggots tell you otherwise- they have no confidence in their life decisions

>>713954327

the host always eliminates one of the doors for you after you choose, so YES.

look, the stupid clip from "21" was shown to my college course while he wrote a java program that randomly chose points in a circle--very different in design but followed the same algorithm--and it proved it.

>>713953916
Make an experiment with a friend, use 3 boxes, put one item inside one box, let friend shuffle, friend should know where the item is. Repeat the experiment around 20 times... 2/3 of the times you would be better off with changing the decision

>>713954327
Yes
Explain how.it isn't. Then faggot?
You can't.becUse the answer is NO

50/50

>>713951534
you have 33% chance the first turn but a 50/50 next turn so yeah why would you not pick the option with the higher odds?

>>713954483
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Lb-6rxZxx0

>>713952757
then you dont switch

>>713954483
He's fucking with you anon. Past events have no effect on the fact that there are now two doors and one of the has a goat , one has a car. IT's 50.50.

>>713952187
>>713952310
>>713952590
Can someone explain this? How does it double your chances by switching?

>>713954686
At the begging there is a car behind a single door but the chances are ,1 door to 3.......when one door is eliminated then your door still holds a 1 out of 3 chance while the other has a 1/2 chance...so its much much better to switch

WATCH A MYTHBUTERS VIDEOON THIS CONSEPT...TRUST ME

>>713954686
step one, you have a 66.66666...% chance of making a mistake the first time, you pick one door and the other guy opens a door, the door he opens is wrong. There are two doors left. The chances that you made the mistake the first time are twice as big, so you change the door and be right 2/3 of the time. TO BAD YOU WERE LUCKY THE FIRST TIME FAGGOT TOUGH LUCK ENJOY THE GOAT

>>713951534
Can I pick the door number 3 anyways?

>>713954570
It's not 50/50, and if it was, What do you mean by choosing the option with higher odds, 50/50 by definition is equal odds

>>713954686
What are the odds of the first door you chose not having the car?

>>713954642
actually, I was fucking with him.
It is 66% if you switch.
You're a retard

>>713954944
but how are you going to know that the 2 goats and car are arranged that way

>>713955136
it doesn't matter how the goats are arranged... even if he drew the pictures for every possible arrangement the odds would still be 2/3

>>713955136
Dumb cunt.

>>713954944
ok but what if the car was behind door number three?

You change doors, always. If you choose 1 and they show you 3, why did they choose to show you that, instead of 2? Your chances of picking the right door is 1/3, but when they take one away, you are left with 1/2, when you look at your chances of getting the right number from the start, it works in your favor, given your knowledge from the information (newly opened door 3) that statistically you have a better chance of getting the car by changing your door 1 to 2.

>>713955429
Dumb cunt

>>713955429
NO NO NO!!!!

>>713955774
YES YES YES!!!!

50%
How can choose from one and two equal 3?
Crazy people thinking this

Bump for Americans to be awake and have opinions

>>713955470
They choose to show you that to make you think switching is a better deal, but it isn't.

>>713951534
switching because math be trixy and shit

>>713956868
Damn straight

>>713956815
Maybe try google to see how the stats work on this, I might not have explained this adequately.

>>713954898
but since the third door has a goat, , the door chosen at first goes up to 1/2 chance, because we eliminated the third, right ?

>>713955470
The host _knows_ where the goats are.
He's effectively got a 100% 'chance' of opening the door to reveal a goat.
If he didn't know, then he'd be leaving you with a 50-50 chance after having found his goat by luck.
But the mother fucker does know, and you know that he knows, and that's the difference.

Consider this:
- You choose one door from 100.
- Host opens 98 other doors each revealing a goat he _knew_ was there.
- You know the host didn't get that result by guessing.
So, do you think the remaining unselected door is 99% chance it's the car?

>>713957432
When you said 1/2, that's when I decided to make fun of you.

>>713957571
Don't tell me what to consider.
I'll take my immediate thought and defend that like gospel that no you very much.

50% forever

>>713951534

Played stay or switch 10 times. 5 times each. Only won 3 times. All 3 times were when I switched. It's a small sample, but it does suggest you have better chances by switching.

Shiny car:
>unbearable taxes
>needs to be cleaned regularly
>paying for all that gas
>lasts for about 10 years

Goat:
>can put it in your shitty backyard
>doesn't need to be cleaned
>free milk, free wool
>lasts for about 10 years

Of course I will switch, I was just shown where the prize actually is.

There are 2 doors
100/2=50
/thread

>>713958443
But there are 3 doors

>>713958635
no there arent. one was eliminated and is therefore irrelevant

>>713957884

Well, o.k.? Like I said, look it up and see how it works or maybe you already know and you're just geek'n.

>>713958865
I'm OP
There is no 1/2
There is 1/3, and 2/3

>>713958713
No, one was opened so you know what's behind it.
It wasn't eliminated, it's still there, it's just open now.

>>713954944
that way the game is easy! Just pick door 1, the car is obviously behind that one(and of course don't switch, you picked the right door!)

>>713959010


When you eliminated the give away door 3 it is eliminated from choice, you have a choice between 1 and 2. .33% to a 50% chance which gets elevated slightly due to the knowledge that the car wouldn't be revealed by knowledgeable party that opened door 3.

>>713957571
Consider this:
- You choose one door from 6,000,000.
- The host then opens 5,999,998 other doors each revealing a living jew he KNEW was there.
- You know the host didn't get that result by gassing.
So, do you think the remaining unselected door is 99.99998% chance it's the Zyklon B can.

>>713951534
i keep it.

>>713959478
That's wrong.
Answer this...
What is the odds of your first choice being the prize, and by extension, the odds that the prize is behind one of the 2 doors you didn't choose?

>>713959576
Believing the zyklon b meme.
That's jew lies to make it sound scarier.

Why purchase special gas in a can, when a tank engine with its exhaust piped into a room get a the same result?

>>713954686
if it isn't intuitive then consider a problem with a larger number of 'doors'

for example

you want to pick the ace of spades to win some prize... 52 cards are face down in front of you, you select one card then the host removes all but one of the remaining cards

either the card in you picked is the ace of spades or the other remaining card

do you stick with your original card (1/52)?

or do you pick one of the remaining cards (51/52)?

>>713954898
wrong

it is 1/3 and 2/3... two doors left and the total probability has to add up to one - you only have two choices... if it was 1/3 + 1/2 then what happens the other 1/6 of the time? Your model is flawed

>>713954642
it isn't 50:50 you muppet

>>713957971
how can you defend it though?

What happens the other 1/6 of the time?

Say you run it multiple times you're saying you expect 1/3 of the time the first door picked to be correct, 1/2 the switched door... but then what? What about the other 1/6th... you've got no explanation so need to re-think this as you're wrong.

>>713960134
Yes it is you dirty hand.
And stop putting yourself up my asshole

>>713959710
I have other shit to do, look it up, they run the numbers online so you can see the statistical advantage to changing your choice. Peace.

>>713960409
explain it then

better still try coding it and running it 10,000 times...

then realise you're wrong

>>713960409

while you're at it consider this example

>>713959930

>>713954391
Still slow. Maybe the rest of the world is taking their siesta, since they can't handle 4 hours of work at a time.

>>713960290
I can defend it by being OP and doing a little troll stirring until the thread has enough 50/50 retards to trigger the 33/66 powers to correct them until there's a counter trigger meltdown and the thread goes into overdrive.

Doesn't seem to be enough Americans to achieve critical 50/50 mass yet.

>>713960413
>>713960504
Both so focused on autistically proving their point they were completely oblivious to that post being in respo se to the MUPPET comment, and irrelevant to the Monty Hall problem.

And this is why you're socially inept

>>713960702
No, just most American 4chan users are the typical obese cheese block eaters.
3pm-4pm wake up is not out of the ordinary.

We're talking about people that work up a sweat from waddling to the fridge

>>713960504
Asks.me.to.explain.it
Tells.me.to.learn.coding.to.prove.him .wrong

Apparently he couldn't prove me wrong, So he believes he is right u til.i can prove him wrong.

Religion.logix

Switching does double the odds.
2/3 chance the car is behind a door you didn't choose means 2/3 your first choice wasn't the car.

If your first choice wasn't the car, then ANY other choice is the car.

I'm a nigger and even I get it.
You 50% morans are literally dumber than a nigger

It's actually 25%.
When you choose 1/3 and then 1/3 is taken away makes it 1/2.
But then you have to take the difference from 1/3 and 1/2 and factor that in to the final options which after all the math makes it 25%.

>>713951534
I use a deterministic machine to select the door that has a car behind it.

>>713962541
The same deterministic machine you use to determine to pleasure extent of your butthole?

>>713962747
Yep :)

>>713962507
amazing

>>713962880
Fair enough.
So what did your colon probing machine have to say about the problem the thread is about?

Did it determine it's better to stay or switch?
And what was the justification for the choice it made?

I think your putting far too much faith in a dildo

>>713955029
>>713955136
>>713955429
a u t i s m

>>713963038
Made some typos with some numbers.
But even though some numbers are wrong, the math still makes sense if you actually look at it.

>>713963181
Well you see its a deterministic machine so given a random choose it will always pick the door the car is behind. Meaning staying is the best route as it will always be correct the first time.

Kill yourselves

>>713963289
Might want to recheck that first one you listed.
The other 2, confirmed auts

>>713951534
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem
fucking idiots.
Imagine you have 1 million doors. 999,999 goats and 1 car. You choose door 1. The host eliminates doors 3-1,000,000. You're left with door 1 and door 2. If you group doors 2-1mil into a group, you have 999,999. You just eliminated 999,998 out of 999,999 doors. This means door 2 has a 999,998/999,999 chance of being correct. The odds of the 1 door out of a million being correct is very small, while the odds of switching to the 999,998/999,999 door is very high. Switch to the other door. always.

All you fags need to do is open all the doors

What if all 3 doors has sheeps?

Theres a 4th door is there?

What if these doors are fake

>>713963337
So the car is always in your colon?

Your asshole is the only door that machine ever points to, or "picks" as you like use.

Guys its 69% chance to get car XD

>>713963442
But your left with 2 doors.
Choosing between 2 choices is 50/50

>>713963723
Now you are catching on.

I like 21 too. Way to make the movie uncool.

>>713963819
Can't tell if bait or not...

Did you even look at the link i posted? It's explained in great detail better than I could say

>>713951534
>ITT: retards who carry over statistics from a previous problem to the next problem.
It's 50/50 all other answers are autism.

>>713964026
>bait
It's not b8, it's thread stimulus

>>713954686
The absolute simplest way to understand it is; How many times does switching win vs how many times does lose?

If the car is behind 3 and you pick 1 or 2 then you win by switching. That's two instances in which switching wins. There's only one instance in which switching loses, that's if you picked 3 to start with

>>713954944
But there are only two outcomes, not three.
Either you have picked the car, switch and lose or you have not picked the car, switch and win.

Initially selecting a door FORCES the host into 1 of 2 scenarios.

1.) In the event you chose correctly the first time (1/3rd chance) he can open either remaining door. The other door will have a goat.
Switching doors loses.

2.) In the event you chose incorrectly (2/3rd chance) he can ONLY choose the one remaining door that has a goat. The other door will have a car. Switching doors wins.

Scenario 2 is twice as likely to occur, making it more probable to win if you switch.

>>713951534
Originally the choice is 1/3. But when one door we pick is not the correct answer, it goes down to a 1/2 chance. So you simple have a 50% chance of suceeding whether you stay or don't.

I don't get why people think switching will make the odds any better. It doesn't.

>>713964622
see
>>713964311

File: Screenshot_2016-11-28-20-03-51.png (140KB, 320x480px) Image search: [Google]

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>>713964311
oh shit that's fax my guy

File: 1b9[1].jpg (43KB, 640x539px) Image search: [Google]

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>>713958106
You also forgot to add

>You can fuck the goat is you're a hopeless virgin

File: 41BQNGEMSZL._SX450_.jpg (16KB, 450x309px) Image search: [Google]

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>>713964311
>>713964745

There are two goats. You likely picked the goat. The host reveals a goat. The other door is more likely the car.

>>713964318
This is correct.

But it does not invalidate the visual aid.

These two outcomes are not equally probable. There is a 2/3rds chance you chose incorrectly to begin with.

>>713954944
That only counts of there are three choices with the exact same choices behind the doors every time.


When you take one bad door out of the equation, it then becomes 1/2 as there are only 2 doors left in the equation.

The 2/3 theory only works of the door choices remain the exact same and the player chooses a different one for a session of three games.

So lets say there is three doors. Wether or not you pick a right one, a goat door is going to be revealed anyways, meaning that you really only had 2 choices from the beginning. So the odds were always 1/2 because you would have either picked a bad door or a good door. In fact the only thing that's 2/3 is your chance of picking a goat door on the first time, so if a goat door wasn't revealed at all, you only have a 1/3 chance of winning.

>>713964071
You'd fail any from of math beyond primary/elementary school then.

>a+c+c=40
>a=20
>c=10

>ANSWER BY your logic...
>a+c+c=40
>a=20
Since a has been revealed and we know what it is, it no longer exists.
I will now eliminate a from.the equation
>a apparently no longer exists
>c+c=40

That's not how maths works you retard.
Knowing what something is worth doesn't make it go away

>>713965169
The odds change when the question becomes "Here are two doors, one leads to goat, the other to car" For the second decision the odds are 50/50.

>>713965437
By the rules of the game, the host must reveal a goat door. The host knows where the car is, and he is forbidden from choosing it.

>>713964311
No it isn't.
The simplest way is...

What are the odds your first choice wasn't the car
>2/3
If your first choice wasn't the car, Switching wins.

>>713965604
Nun uh.

Your probability to choose a goat was 2/3.

So you likely got it wrong.

The host reveals another goat. If you likely picked a goat, and he reveals a goat, the chances of the car being in the other door are higher than the chances of the goat being in your door.

>>713964622
What were the odds that your first choice wasn't the car?

>>713965052
No he didn't.
Just your dumb shit was inb4'd

Is tell you to read a thread before posting, but your cancer is already terminal.

The host was always giving you two doors to choose from as he was always going to open one of the wrong doors, as such the question is actually: You are asked to pick from two doors, a correct one and an incorrect one.

>>713957537
> but since the third door has a goat, , the door chosen at first goes up to 1/2 chance, because we eliminated the third, right ?

This would be true only if the discovery of a goat behind the third door was a lucky guess in itself.

HOWEVER, the host of the game knew for sure that a goat was behind the third door.
Therefore, the effect is to transfer the third door's apparent initial 1/3 chance onto the second door.
Why all onto the second door and not split it between the first and the second?
Well, because the host wasn't permitted to open the first door, and he DELIBERATELY chose NOT to open the second.
I hope that helps your thinking anon.

File: tumblr_m0wb2xz9Yh1r08e3p.jpg (39KB, 600x357px) Image search: [Google]

39KB, 600x357px

I spent a good long hour before (pic related). If you still think it's 50/50, ask me questions.

>still stumping people with the Monty Hall problem in 2016
k

>>713966221
You can't teach them.
They have to figure it out themselves.
You probably argued for 50% until.your mind blew and you got it.

>>713964690
Yes, but if the car isn't always on 3, and you don't always choose 1 or 2, then that means that switching doesn't always win.

Example. Car is on 2. You pick two. Host shows 3 to have a goat. You are offered to switch. Swtiching now has no chance of winning. But the game is permanentely stuck in the odds of a coin toss, as regardless of what you pick, one wrong answer ALWAYS is removed.

>>713966321
>CURRENT YEAR!!!!!
>STILL STUMPING PEOPLE!!!!!

It would seem so based on this thread.
Any more obvious observations you care to add?
You can't use "leaves are green", or "water is wet".

>>713965964
2/3 is only the chance of picking a goat. But of one goat door is removed anyways, you really only have a 1/2 chance anyways.

File: tmp_21797-23avaz5-1833830898.jpg (15KB, 370x295px) Image search: [Google]

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>>713966459
You dumb fucking retard.
There is 3 outcomes for every choice.

No point trying to explain it to you
>pic related

ITT: maybe /b/ isn't so special after all...

File: 1480556869692s.jpg (2KB, 125x125px) Image search: [Google]

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>>713966754
how about you get that dick out of your mouth before typing

>>713966778
And you didn't answer the simple/direct question I asked.

Smells like trolltard

>>713963819
I am taking your remarks as genuine and not as bait.
If you weren't paying attention to the game, and at the moment of being presented with the two remaining doors, then to you the chances are 50/50.

>>713951534
Why does the act of switching doors give you a better chance of winning?

File: tmp_21797-Screenshot_20161204-031444-1156542932.jpg (716KB, 1419x1163px) Image search: [Google]

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>>713967126

>>713967390
But it was b8, and there can never be 50% from a choice of three.

File: 15240289_10202480024919947_1008432869_n.jpg (9KB, 259x388px) Image search: [Google]

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>>713967535

>>713966172
It doesn't make sense that you "randomly" (always) picked the wrong door and that switching doors after the goat is revealed that your chances of opening the shiny car door go up

>>713967693
1) 33% start (3 doors)
2) Reveal goat
3) you're obviously not going to pick revealed goat door
4) 50% now (2 doors)

>>713967751
The host is always giving you a choice of two doors, not three. I'm not entirely sure where this third door is coming from, the question explicitly states that you are being given a choice between two doors.

No one wants to post one of the 9129312948 youtube vids of uni profs explaining this problem? Or is this a 100% bait thread and I lost?

File: 1480718100206.jpg (46KB, 183x327px) Image search: [Google]

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>>713964591
Thank you ffs!!!

>>713967751
Correct, but it is 2/3rds likely to happen.

Switching only improves your odds to 2/3rds, you would still lose 1/3rd of the time.

Still better.

Do you seriously need this much help Coding in Alice in Computer Science?

>>713967507
Becaue your first choice has a 1/3 chance of being the car.

That means there's a 2/3 chance the car is behind one of the doors you didn't choose.

Host opens a door you didn't choose.
(Not the car)

Still 2/3 chance the car is not behind the door you chose.
Only one door left you didn't choose.
2/3 you didn't choose the car

>>713967939
Finding the way to explain this in your own words is as much part of the fun as figuring out the problem to begin with.

easiest way to understand this is as follows

in this case there are 3 doors, all but 2 (one winning door and one losing door) are opened

expand the case to a million doors. you choose door 1033

your odds are a million to one

now all doors except the door you chose (which had a million to one shot to be the right one) and one other door are opened

should you stick with your choice or change?

obviously you should change

>>713966459
Example. Car is on 2. You pick either one or three. Host shoes the second goat. You are offered to switch. Switching now has 100% chance of winning. 2 out of 3 doors will give you a car = 66%.

>>713967819
33%+50%=100%
Surely you see the problem here.

There's always 3 doors.
Why you think opening a door makes it disappear from existence I don't understand.

>>713967819
Theres 2 ways to look at it,which is fucked up.
Either you consider one door eliminated and it being 50/59.
Or:
You view it as 2/3 chance of picking goat initially then use them odds to conclude that the first door you chose has a higher chance of being a goat than the unrevealed one

>>713967891
You should probably go back to the top and read the words in the OP pic again.

>>713967939
Did you read the entire thread before posting?
That question makes your questions redundant.

>>713968271

>>713968426
There isn't 2 ways to look at it.

There is understanding it, and misunderstanding it.

>>713968466
Read it. "A TV host opens a door with a goat behind it then asks you to choose between two doors, one has a goat behind it, the other has a car."

>>713967693
Yeah but I am being a bit philosophical here...
An unwise player may perceive the final move as being a straight choice of two, as if it was a new isolated game.
So, to them, it is a 50-50 choice and therefore a 50-50 chance.
Remember, they have failed to think about the PROBABILITY behind the choice they are now left with.
That's what I'm saying.

ye that retarded shit... from a logical point maybe someone can go bother thinking about this, if he is faggot autist btard or something

otherwise ye,, from a realistic point of view,, you really only have an 50/50 chance

its either the one you chosen already or the other one, since the third on is open already..

maybe you can speculate whether the host want to fool you to choose the other door or want you the keep your choice, but that's it, it still is only 2 doors.. i guess that's a fun thing to elaborate on for idiots

File: tmp_21797-Screenshot_20161204-033840-1357039004.jpg (234KB, 1420x842px) Image search: [Google]

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>>713969016
I'm OP, and have made this thread many times.
You need to actually go back and read it, because it seems you are actually retarded.

Even if you only saw the lowest section of the pic, its still blatantly clear by image and text that there is/was three choices.
>pic rlated

>>713969346
Never coddle or appease the retarded.
It discourages them from behaving normally

It's called a paradox for a reason. Both answers are equally wrong and equally right, even though they contradict each other.

>>713969603
At no point is there a choice of three because the host will always open one door. Which door you choose initially or even whether you chose initially has no bearing on the final choice, it's a cute fallacy which catches out people with such severe autism that they view these as linked choices, however both times you are asked to choose you are making a separate choice and you gain absolutely no information from the host opening a door, he was always going to open a door, the door he opens never factored into the first decision in the first place, it was always a 50/50 chance that you will have picked the correct door to begin with, the starting shit about there being three doors is fluff to confuse people.

>>713969902
lol the paradox is the misunderstanding of it, the answer is clear and has been proven over and over many different ways. its retards like you who see this and still dont get it that is paradoxical

>>713968271
this

>>713969504
So angry and so dumb.
I wish I knew you in person.
Id get you to give me so much of your money...
And apparently you'd be too stupid to understand it was a scam all along.

You'd actually believe you lost 2/3 of your money on 50/50 bets

I love people like you.

>>713969973
Just stop being retarded for a bit and LISTEN and follow along with this and you might actually get it...

The first choice is out of 3 doors.
What is the chance the door you chose is the car?

>>713954686
With your first choice of door, there is 2/3 chance you picked a goat. That's just logic. However, if one of the bad choices that was NOT your choice is eliminated, there's still a 2/3 chance your choice was a goat, and the other choice is the prize. So, since there is a 2/3 chance the door you didn't pick has the prize, you should always switch.

>>713970120
ye surely,

mostly i just hate how ppl argue about this shit, "im smarter" "nooo im smarter" ,, like that dress "was it gold or blue"

ye its fun for a while,, but then its just boring as fuck,, also dont worry, i wouldnt give you a penny

and logic wont translate to the real world like that,, as in you see in reality schrodinger's cat isnt actually both alive and dead... its just one you see,,, you just dont know which one until you see it... ye in imagination land everything is possible even for a cat to not be in either state if not observed...

so ye,,, lets say you choose door 1 - it has the car-- host open door 3 - would you switch?

ye? - good job, you lost the car

i hope i never meet an uptight smartass f like you in real life

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I'm still convinced this thread is like the no soap radio joke.

>>713969723
You're right.
I have posted to this board enough times explaining it from different perspectives to help people see the game for what it really is, and now I grow weary of you all.
Some of us have put the right information out there.
People who don't get it have just got to think it through until they do.

>>713970339
That's totally irrelevant to the final outcome

>>713961040
casting your own failings on others...

>>713965604
The new question is "Here are two doors, one leads to a goat, the other to a car. This door is probably the goat though."
(I know that wasn't even a question but saying that for the sake of explaining to this tard)

>>713970686
Autism speaks.

>>713970686
Nowhere does anything imply the current door does of doesn't have a goat outside of the initial case of 2 goats and 1 car.

>>713963819
I'd be happy to gamble against you if you're dumb enough to think they're 50/50

you really think your first choice suddenly changes in probability?

doesn't matter

>>713970564
So angry.
>logic won't translate to the real world
Will it translate to the unreal world?
Will maths translate to the "real" world?
Does reality translate to the "real" world?

Fucks sake anon.
Choose 1/3
2/3 you chose loser
If you chose the loser
Choosing any other wins.

You come across awfully pretentious for such a dumb cunt

>>713969973
Completely dumb. They are linked choices. The host's behavior matters. Run through a table of all possible winning doors and choices if you can't figure it out. The outcome heavily favors switching.

>>713970624
I told you to STOP being retarded, and to LISTEN.

You know damn well what your saying is retarded and that's why you answer every question with a question.

Doesn't worry me.
I'm OP, bump away.

I thought you were actually retarded and wanted to learn.

Get fucked faggot

>>713971463
I have not answered with a question, I'm not asking if the first decision is irrelevant to the second, I'm telling you that it is. The properties of the first decision change with the knowledge that the host will always open one of the goat doors and leave you with a choice of two, which you choose initially is irrelevant.

>>713971360
The decision to switch is always 50/50, the host does not tell you why he chose the door he did.

>>713959930
this is a fantastic example.
good job /b/ro

>>713971097
oh my god.. you talk about being angry with "fuck sake" blablabla.. "dumb cunt" the fuck is your problem

no, i already said i just hate how ppl argue over this.. and whats whit this translate to everything ? why? how does schrodinger's cat translate to the world? Does it? so it is possible for a cat to be alive and not at the same time?? wooow? how?? you really opened my eyes there...

instead maybe you shouldnt act like dumb cunt then... ye your good at math bravo,, ye i learned it too, but really if you discount all this shit, say,

you ace the car in the first choice, well if you dont change it you win, thats it

ye i wasnt even talking about chances by the way,, so i dunno where your 2/3 comes from again, i just said how this argument is stupid... ppl arent even talking about chances after a while, just one trying to be smarter...

" oohh ahahaha, that dress was really is blue,,, idiot ,, hahahah"

thats math... the question itself if you should change ,, is luck basically, you didnt answer the part about choosing door 1 with the car... what then? you chosen door 2 and lost.. thats it i guess

well anyway nice job quoting the word "real"

also on another note, why the hell you even care,, no one cares i believe, and ye from a different point of view it really is luck, pure luck

>>713970636
>He pointed out my failings.
>that really hurt my feelings and triggered my anxiety.
>how best to respond..
Oh my god...IM A FUCKING GENIUS!
this is what I'll do


Whatever he said about me, (doesn't matter what it was, that's the brilliance of my awesomely non-autistic plan)...
I'll just suggest that's actually his problem...

> autistic adult version of " I am rubber you are glue" that 8 year olds say

>>713955470
but once they open a door with a goat, your chance that your original choice was a car is 50% right? Is it because my original choice was 33%? I mean once they take away a wrong choice, how is it that you dont have a 50% chance if you keep your door?

>>713970847
Yeah man, I'll gamble with you any time.
Only.high stakes.thoigh.

Not wasting time on small bills

>>713951534
Mathematically it is in your favor to switch every time no matter what

>>713971758
>choose a door, you have a one in three chance of getting it initially
>if it's behind door 1 (your door), the host will leave you with a switch that will make you lose
>if it's behind door 2, the host will leave you with a switch that will make you win
>if it's behind door 3, the host will leave you with a switch that will make you win

That is a complete set of outcomes. You can't simply drop the first choice, and you have not even presented a valid reason to drop it beyond declaring it irrelevant without explaining. The host doesn't have to explain anything to you, because he's simply acting on the premise of the show that any non-retard should understand. It's not a 50/50, because the possible outcome is always 33/66.

Go ahead and prove your 50/50 if you can manage. Just throwing stuff away because you think it doesn't matter doesn't mean anything to anyone.

>>713955029
How are you so stupid?!!?!?!?!?!

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>>713951534
dont switch

>>713972067
Because there's a 33% chance that he'll take away one of two wrong doors, and a 66% chance that he'll take away a wrong door and leave the winner. See >>713972511

>>713971632
Which is why I ask this question...
>what is the chance of your first choice being the car
Because your assumption, and u understanding based on that assumption is incorrect.

I'm trying to show you why in a simple way.
Follow me on this (even if you don't agree), and you very well could have a great experience of something you accept as fact being completely changed.

Maybe not, but what do you have to lose by playing along.

>>713971940
>triggered level: meltdown
It's like copypasta, but it's real.

>>713971940
Your dick is probably like 3 inches
Get the fuck over yourself, loser

>>713971940
If you want to talk about dresses, this is where you belong.
>>>/lgbt/

your all fucking spastics if theres two doors and you have no way of knowing whihc one is right then its a 50 50 guess no matter what happened before. the third door is irrelevant once you know thats its not the right one. The chance of getting it right the first time is 1/3. then one door is removed so now the chace is 1/2. Dumbass

>>713965597
b-b-baited

>>713973460
>>713973645
eeehhhh , you wont change your mind either


he actually did get it right
>>713972289
ye MATHEMATICALLY , you didnt even explain how is a cat able to be dead and alive at the same time

altho im not sure you are the same person who argued with that

well you are triggered i guess,, lets say to each other a few more times how the other is triggered, cause there are no better reasons,
>>713973645
>>713973460
you get the fuck over yourself, your turn then

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Right from Wikipedia you retards

>>713973749
seriously this is just a trick

>>713973749
Idiot look at this
>>713957571

>>713973924
yeah that doesnt make sense

>>713974081
So rebuke it faggot, you mad?

>>713972694
Not only did he take that time and effort to make that, if he's read to the SECOND REPLY of the thread before getting spergs level excited about a super funny joke he could make, he would be seen that lame as fuck joke was INB4'd

>>713974081
ye it dont, it should transfer to the 2 remaining doors, not just one

like 1/3 1/3 1/3 then 1,5/3 1,5/3

>>713974009
yeah that doesnt make any sense either, why are u all assuming that the chance your guess was right stays the same the whole time?

>>713971940
Triggered/autism

>>713974290
Triggered/autism

>>713974009
>>713974195
>>713974216
with 3 doors and no info you have a one third chance of guessing right.

One door is shown to be wrong and so is removed from the question because you know its not right.

Now there are two doors and no information

50 50 chance

>>713972512
Why won't you answer the question

??!!?!?!?!?!?!?!?¿°¿°¿°°°¿°¿•¿¿¿•¿•¿°°°¿°!!???!!!!!

>>713974372
When the host eliminates a door it doesn't just give you information on the door he picked. It also gives you information on the door he Didn't pick.
It gives you no information on the door you had already selected.

>>713974009
>>713974195
stumped you mongoloid two-tonne-eyebrow neanderthal people

>>713974458
I didn't think it needed to be answered because it's basic fucking math I learned in 3rd grade

But sure its 2/3 chance that you didn't pick the car

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>>713974668
Kek u mad, stay mad son

>>713973749
> The chance of getting it right the first time is 1/3
Which means 2/3 the car is one of the 2 doors you didn't choose.
If I open one of them, there's still 2/3 it's behind a door you didn't choose.
Now there's only one left that we do t k ow what's behind...
2/3 thtas the car.

>>713974600
image if i said I have a stone in one of my hands and u have to guess. 50/50 chance right?

after u guess i tell u my mate over there doesnt have it in his hand.

How is that gonna affect your chances?

>>713974600
seriously its like a badly written equation
to fuck up ppl

they all have 33...soooo

thats 1/3+1/3+1/3 that makes 100%
so 1 is out 2 remains, than the other two doors chances rise equally, as either one can be the right one so 1,5/3+1,5/3

its not 1/3 and 2/3 its 1/3 AND [1/3+1/3]

>>713974850
why is there "Still 2/3 chance its abehind a door you didnt choose"?

>>713974668
No I'm just astonished at how stupid someone can be, there's no hope for you

>>713974848
but im right

>>713973876
What the fuck are you trying to say?
The only way your post makes sense is if this faggot >>713964071
is you and you're engaging damage control.

>>713975023
No ur mad

>>713975147
did u read my comments tho

>>713975184
Yep, nothing but whiney anger, madboi

>>713973920
No brakes on the cringe train

>>713974936
You're only right if you
a) ignore past events, and probability doesn't work that way.
b) ignore that the revealed door is not selected randomly

You're simplifying the scenario and ignoring key factors, so you're wrong.

>>713975277
Listen, in the beginning there are three doors, your chance to guess correctly is 1/3.

Then you are told which one of the two doors u didn't pick is wrong.

Now there are two doors that you have no way of telling which has a car and one door that you know doesnt have the car.

So there are two doors that you have no way of telling which has a car.

So there is a 50/50 chance.

>>713974744
So you agree that it's 2/3 the car is behind a door you didn't choose?

So the host shows you that you have a 50% chance of winning the car. Assuming if I take door 2 instead and switch the host will expose door 1 and it will be a car or goat. then I can just decide to switch back for the car or stay as is if it's a goat.

The only thing that confuses me is ops faggotry

>>713975545
That's a lot of typing wasted on being wrong, why are you so mad?

>>713974974
Because the door you.chose still has 1/3 chance.

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>>713951534
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uBHsU_8h-SQ

To explain to the retards; imagine you are presented with the same scenario, only this time there are 100 doors. All doors are opened except two, one random door, and the door of which you chose. Now, the chances of you originally choosing the correct door are 1/100, right? Whereas the chances of the car being behind the door you did not choose are 99/100, therefore making it optimal to choose the door you DID NOT choose originally.

>>713975675
thats alot of life wasted on being a troll on 4chan

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>>713951534
Why a goat? Anybody ever stop to ask that? Understand that, and you will understand the greatest riddle of all ...

>>713975827
Mad as hell, dam nigga

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>>713975829
This

>>713975784
yeah but when the doors are opened the chance of your door being correct increase, it doesnt stay at 1/99

>>713951534
Door number 2 has the ass end of the goat since door 3 has the head, if you are switching doors you would have to switch to the number 2 or the door that already is prove. To have a goat so the choice is easy really.

Nevermind the bullshit fractions and odds everyone is putting out there, thats the same shit companys do to make retards like you think theyre getting a good deal on a product. 50% off it says, when they really inflated the price so even when you get 50% off ur still paying more than the retail price required for them selling the itmlem to be profitable.

TL;DR pick door number One you fucking messhugginas and dont switch

>>713975975
No it doesn't you fucking disabled dingo, the chance of you choosing correctly in the first place are 1/100, and it stays like that when all doors are opened except two...

>>713976084
are u the same guy i was just talking to? probz

Care to explain why the chance doesnt change then?

>>713975784
To explainerate to all the retards....
If I had.one gorrillion windows and made you choose o e w/o die then out a mo e.g. behind a window the smashed 7 w/o does and paid 700 dollars for dogs to sit I 24 more w/o does then put my.bimbs in blah blah but then added salt, then asked to to read and follow what's in the image of the OP post you'd either get it or not.
And.if not it's because you choose to be retarded because the thread.is full of indisputable explanation s and evidence.

Must really suck being a dumb cunt

>>713976187
Yes I am. Put it this way, when you are presented with 100 doors, what are the chances of you picking the correct door? 1/100, correct? So, when the host opens all doors except the one you chose and a random door, what is the chance that you chose the CORRECT door? It's still 1/100, the odds don't change. What are the odds that you DIDN'T pick the right door? 99/100, right? Therefore, it is more efficient to SWITCH doors, rather than stay with the original choice.

>>713975975
Yeah.
Magic can magic whatever the prize is in and out.

>magic isn't real faggot.

>>713976283
jokes

>>713975975
ye its fucked up, because it assumes all the other doors having a unified chance, instead of each door acting on its own

you can even leave out the opening doors, cause it will always be just two variables , your doors and not another billion of doors , rather, "your door" and "rest of the doors" obviously counting it like that, will always result in this

the first door chances are correct , as each door [including the one you chosen] SHOULD have equal chances, so its 1 out of how many doors there are

only all the other doors are counted as one variable, so when all is opened, nothing will change actually as nothing was opened, since that variable that had all the other doors still has one door, it still has the same chances as before,, cause nothing happened, and the chosen door stay the same also

>>713976283
Fuck you're dense...

>>713951534
IF one of the 2/3 goats are ALLWAYS REVEALED, why would you EVER pick the KNOWN losing option??
That leaves you with ONLY TWO CHOISES! ALLWAYS! HOW IS THAT NOT 50%? TWO CHOISES! IT'S NEVER THREE CHOISES IF ONE OPTION IS. NOT. AN. OPTION

>>713976635
Someone's mad because they don't understand :c

>>713976635
But the losing door is still pickable... so 2/3

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>>713976001
Suck.my.shekels.you.homo.schlomo
I'm white. This is gold I'm keeping from the jew community.
I've got more too.
Suck shit.

I've actually got crystalline gold, the rarest of rare.
Makes jews salivate.

>>713976454
Again, your saying "the odds dont change". Why wouldn't they change if the situation changes?

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>>713977001

>>713977001
"IVE ACTUALLY GOT CRYSALLINE GOLD"

well done

>>713976737
Explain then. In this game there are NOT three options - one option is a phantom - one option is allways eliminated - no matter what you pick to being with - what you pick does not matter! it only matters that 1 of the 3 is never an option, so you are ALLWAYS left with but 2 options

>>713977110
I agree - switching doors still leaves you with a 50% chance, as one door was never an option - unless you WANT the goat

>>713977583
thanks im glad I changed your mind :)

>>713977270
>this.

>>713977771
Oh I was never arguing with you.
I'm: >>713976635

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>>713977777
yee

>>713977943
yeeeee but thats not how probability works, daaaaaa

its just a concept thats it, a rather ... stupid one, but whatever,, and even if we count with odds like this, it wont change anything either, you have 2/3 chance to not fuck up, it wont say you wont fuck up,,

you just have a little bit higher chance not too,,so ye, you really shouldn't count on this in a real scenario, the car is either there or not, from the beginning

>>713976454
Thats where the problem lies.
They actually believe that someone opening 98 doors that have nothing to to with the door the chose, the chance of something good being behind the door they chose magically increase to 50%, (even though they chose that 1 door out of 100, which clearly gives it 1/100 chance/1% of having the prize)

You need to understand that these faggots are mostly underage or neets, that have never had the life experience of choices having any form of consequence.
They literally have no way to understand the concept that just because they wanted something doesn't mean they will get it, so the idea of changing what they asked for goes against everything they've ever learned in their extremely limited experience almost solely based in the house dictated by mother.

The probability that you chose the car the first time round is 1/3.

After he opens the door. You are doing a switch. It's either car to goat or goat to car.

However it's less likely that it's car to goat because it's less likely that you have the car than the goat (1/3 vs. 2/3).

So if you start with the goat (probability 2/3) and you switch, you always win.

>>713976470
Not really a joke.
I'd call it ridicule.

So much dumb

>>713976539
Not upstanding ridicule.
Likely ridicule that applies to you based on that reply.

>>713978147
The claim is that you up your chances by switching, but that is not true... You cant prove me wrong - unless you insist that the KNOWN LOSING OPTION is still an option.. Right?

But what if the car was still in Door number 1 anyways

>>713978550
im using english slang jokes just meaing its funny

>>/int/

>>713978487
but its not really true either

turned around its just you have 1/3 chance to lose or 2/3, NEITHER choice eliminate the possibility of losing! you shouldn't always win

it really shouldn't work like that as explained in this,,, its pretty bad example honestly in my opinion a real outcome, it not always a win,, even if we count with say you have perfect luck, YOU STILL only win 2 out of 3 times,, cause its not 3/3 its 2/3

>>713976635
I don't understand what people are saying but I want to fit in so I'LL.JUST START SAYING RANDOM SHIT IN CAPS COS CAPS MAKE WVERYTHING YOU SAY BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY...

3 CHOICES HOW IS THAT NOT 50%
HOW DOES THAT WORK?
>retardedjuggaloclownface.png

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>>713977248
0.001% of all gold.
It triggers jewgrubbers.

I've got nugget gold too, but you need a pile of that to make a jew sad.

>>713951534
Nice bait.
For everyone else, it goes from 33% to 50%.

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>>713951534

>>713979728
no, i believe OP is really like that,, its not a bait

>>713951534
If the host opens a goat door it most likely means that you did pick the wrong door and changing door increases your chance even more.

>>713977151
I slipped up and exposed myself by saying this
> TL;DR pick door number One you fucking messhugginas and dont switch

Everybody says messhugginas...
Nothing to question or think about.
It's completely normal, you hear that word everyday...

>better post a pic of a jew condescending that guy

>>713979797
well, its either bait or he's retarded

Okay, it's really simple. You can pick one of three doors and the host is always going to show you one wrong choice to build drama and pad show time. Let's look at the options.

So you pick a door, right? You have a 2 in 3 chance of choosing incorrectly and 1 in 3 chance of choosing correctly.

Now here's the thing. The host knows what's on the other side. We're assuming this is an honest game show and they're not just moving things around.

So he knows if the car is behind your door or not. So if your door has a goat behind it, he has to pick the door without the car behind it, which leaves only the door with the car for you to switch to. Assuming this is the case, you have a 100% chance of choosing correctly.

If you choose the door with the car behind it, the host reveals a goat at random, doesn't matter which. If you switch, you always lose.

Now remember how you have a 1 in 3 chance of choosing correctly initially? This means that 2 out of three times, you make the wrong choice, the host shows you the other wrong choice, and you switch to the right one, and the other 1/3 of the time, you're always wrong. It's probability with an eliminator.

TL;DR If you think it's 50/50, you aren't thinking.

>>713979499
i was being sarcastic im not impressed by your ownership of rare minerals

>>713978734
Its been proven.
Many time by many separate independent entities.

Also many simulations you can run online.

There is NO excuse for being a dumb fucking retard.

>>713978734
See
>>713980392
I just did, with basic math and logic.

>>713978835
Not /int/
The dumb and stupid was intentional to make fun of the retards.

>>713980827
youve confused me now

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>>713977777
Yowsa.

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>>713968271
I finally get it. Bless u based anon.

>>713980367
You think the thread is b8, or I'm retarded?

It's not opinion based, it's factually better to switch.

I get the feeling from following the reply links that your actually a samefag that fucked up his first reply link.

Because when you follow the 3 replies (yes, 3 replies, in reply to nothing), it makes no sense.

Smells like samefaggotry gone bad.
He dun goofed

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>>713980528
Please explain the sarcasm in pic related.

>>713980392
thank you so much genius man i changed my mind and i get it now.

I was still right about the two doors having equal chance of having the car but yes, your are more likely to have chosen wrongly and therefore switching is more likely to make you win

i change my mind thank you

>>713951534

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pA8DdkM2Wqo

>>713981232
One of the few times the word irony is used on this board and it actually makes sense.

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refute me, niggers

actually play the game instead of theorycrafting

>>713980528
> doesn't understand sarcasm
> gets grumpy at metal
AUTISM!

>>713982752
your use of the word "actually" means that you think the statement is unexpected/suprising and therefore impressive. My capitalisation of the quote is an exasperation of this fact.

I then below said "well done". Normally this would be a compliment. I gave this compliment using the same language as if I were serious and impressed but in reality i was not. this is the very nature of sarcasm, it has no signs of being false and has to be detected.The only sign that i was sarcastic was the capitalisation.

In england "well done" is commonly used when you want to sarcastically compliment someone.

Oki guys, this is how I understand it.

You have a 33% chance (1/3) of picking a door which has a car. You choose door 1.

The host reveals one other door, door 3, behind which is a goat.

Just because the options have narrowed to 2 choices, stay or switch, does not mean you have a 50% (1/2) chance of having the door with the car.

You actually still have a 33% (1/3) chance of having picked the right door, regardless of the knowledge that door 3 is incorrect.

However! Switching to door 2 is a better choice because out of the remaining 2 doors, the host picked door 3. Therefore, door 2 had a 50% (1/2) chance of being the door with the car.

Did I get it right? I haven't seen this problem before

>>713977248
That's actually kind of impressive.
Google that shit...
It's almost non existent

>>713982919
your making no sense now mate

>>713951534
Just give me the goat. I can think of a lot of uses for goats.

>>713983305
I am sarcasm master

>>713983445
Wow...
How much did it cost to get your fedora custom fitted?

>>713983511
anyone who has enough money can get it though so to me its not impressive. Having the money to get it is more impressive but still not impressive unless it was hard earned in a way that an avverage person would not be able to do.

I actually figured this out a while back.
If you automatically switch doors then you still have a 1/3 chance, but if you flip a coin to choose then your odds go up to 1/2.

>>713983819
you asked me to explain it and i did

and it cost 150£, good price imho

>>713983819
that was more sarcasm incase you couldnt tell

>>713983706
Wrong, just like your Asian opinion on the topic at hand.

>>713984206
i changed my mind, i agree that changing is a better option.
Lol "your asian opinion"

>>713984093
Sarcasm from what?
You say more, but where did it start?

Follow it back and you'll find where the joke really started.

Good joke being a dumb cunt pretending to samefag though.

>>713968271
this is an amazing explanation i was actually believing it was 50/50 till this

>>713984316
Youre Asian.
I know

Thread is soon dead.

Have fun my Asian friend.

>>713951534
Staying with the door or changing it, its like choosing it again. So when he opens one goat, that door is out of the play, then you have 1 goat and the car and you have to choose between door 1 or door 2. Its 1/2 no doubt.

>>713984582
am i good or bad kind of asian?

>>713984457
what your bare confusing

so you think im two different peopl?

>>713984539
It's actually a really convoluted explanation.
But retards won't answer questions which is the best way....
3 questions, best explanation.
Faggots never answer the first question out if fear they might be wrong and exposed.

>>713984621
Fuck knows?
You seem alright.

Don't rape my ocean and I'll invite you to.my Christmas party Sean