Previous thread >>64876521
>/bet/ meet-up in Bulgaria when sub-edition
>FAQ and abbreviations list for those new to /bet/
>Help for gambling addiction/suicide hotlines
>/bet/ approved spreadsheet for tracking your bets
Nothing special, St Bonaventures is a really good team and my years of watching college basketball have told me that small favorites at home cover more often than not. Wouldn't go more than a small on it
o-one last time
Can I just ask something real quick?
Why the FUCK are Bovada's lines so SHIT?
Why the FUCK is this the only legal option in the United States?
guys if a team wins by penalties does it count as a winner?
because in danubio-defensor there's going to be penalties if the match ends in a tie. and if this is true then betting on either wins is freemoney
If it's a three way bet (Home Win - Draw - Away Win) the bet ends after 90 minutes. If it's a two way bet (Home Win - Away Win) it's decided by penalties yes. Never seen that offered in football though.
Actually it does get offered in football during tournaments. "Team to go through." or "Team to win the final" stuff like that. Once the game goes to penalties they will open the penalty market though and the teams will be priced @1.83 or something.
Bad idea to bet because the bookies know everything there is to know. More so then you do. Anything mainstream avoid. like NFL, NHL, NBA, EPL. Go for lower league stuff that the bookies may not know as much
brazilian league (specially our second tier, Série B) is pretty good for betting because its so unpredictable and all teams are equally crappy so it's pretty hard to manipulate the odds
you can make a good profit every round with "zebras" because 18 out of 20 teams are basically the same level of shit or have a safe bet in the two teams that will bounce back to serie A and win almost all of their games
bookies already know about those teams m8, they always check the statistics of the teams
what you can check are other things, like injuries, suspensions, new players, refball, the pitch being shit, match being a derby and so
>they always check the statistics of the teams
no statistic could help them this year, we had 8 teams fighting for the last two promotion spots till the last round
2 points between the third place and the 11th
no amount of preparation can save them in a situation like this, only one of the teams predicted to be promoted by bookies actually did it (two of their predictions got relegated to serie C by the way)
you have no idea how crazy serie B is here
"I'm not ready to get married babe. There are still new accy's for me to discover. New bookies for me to conquer. My journey is long from over and I don't want you to suffer through the depths I'll have to suffer through. So I'm sorry. Find yourself a nice wage slave who works 9 to 5 and drives a Toyota Hybrid. He will bring you the happiness and security I cannot. Goodbye."
A-are we /sexbet/ now?
>tfw wanna have a threesome like AIR
Gonna hook up with this bi girl soon, reckon she would be up for it if we found a 3rd willing participant (female only, sorry lads).
thanks for the tips lads. i think i will use a combination of the dominican republican's advice and the brit who told me to delete her off fb.
as a reward, have some free money courtesy of b365. i can't post my slip since i can't actually place the bet from here (my wifi on this cruise goes through murricah) but one of my bet buddies is placing it for me.
One of my really good friends is a bi. And let me tell you, she is a 9/10. Had a friend date her and he told me best sex of his life. But anyway, she has offered to have a 3 sum with everyone of the girlfriends I've had. Brought up the idea to the gfs and all said no. It made me sad.
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Got on Clippers ML for +200. They are at home and have a whole half to right the ship against a mediocre Miami team. Should be comfy if nothing else. Heat are shooting unusually high and the clippers unusually low. Should even back up.
My tips for tonight:
For the Aussies (foreigners ignore this one) using the 365 offer:
>Melbourne Stars to win the BBL game
South Africa v England:
I'm not betting on the straight result until atleast day 3 because there is thunderstorms about and I don't bet against the weather in foreign countries. But I'm getting on some smaller markets:
South Africa top runscorer 1st innings:
>Quinton de Kock (@ $8) OR Temba Bavuma (@ $7.50) - Tiny
Reason: South Africa have confirmed that they are going with a four man pace-attack. That means that opening batsman Stiaan van Zyl will have to make way so that they can keep a minimum of four racial quota players in the team. That means they will have to promote either de Kock or Bavuma to open the batting. Both are underrated and quality batsman (especially de Kock) and both are in good form. Opening the batting actually gives them a chance to top score as opposed to coming in the lower-order as they were.
England top wicket-taker 1st or 2nd innings or whole match - Small
>Steve Finn @ $4
Reason: Simple, he is their best bowler in these conditions. He is the tallest and usually the quickest England seamer. Anderson is fucking shit in these conditions. Stokes and Ali are meme bowlers. So it'll either be Broad or Finn but Finn is better value.
KBL game in 20 minutes.
Dongbu Promy vs Incheon Elephants. Go ATS on Dongbu. They're one of the better teams in the league, playing a home game against the worst team. The spread being only 8 points makes it a very profitable bet.
Stream here: https://youtu.be/vtzZfGqJrpY
If I took every bet posted by Mackers etc at bigger handicaps, like -0.5 @1.5 instead of -1 @1.8 or so, would I mathematically break even because I'd have a higher strike rate but fewer earnings per bet? Is that how maths works? Pls help I'm curious
Sure one can argue that there was nothing special with his picks but I dont think thats the point.
So many picks and building up that sum of money one could only hope that he pulled this trough considering how difficult it is to get it to work.
It sux to get so close and it doesnt work out.
And yes the general thing like not follow blindly any bets, do you own analysis and all that ofcourse thats something we all should do.
And here is the thing. Sometimes bets simply doesnt work out. You could have spent hours analyze and do absolutely everything right and then when the game start the other team ends up getting an unfair penalty, the key player get injured or something else like a red card and so on.
Those unknown factors tend to eat up low odds and you have no chance to predict that its going to happend. Random factors simply mess up the pick.
Wow, you seem pretty riled up by a two word response to your bet. Sounds like you have some serious anger issues, have you considered maybe taking some time away from your computer and getting some fresh air? Maybe you should go for a walk and calm down, it would do you a world of good.
Yesilgerisun are only taking 7 players to the away game against Usak. The match was rescheduled and none of the newly signed players have their documents ready. And Usak are also less shit, this is Turksih basket if anyone wants to bet. I'll get on the handicaps.
Source : http://www.yesilgiresun.com.tr/spor/basketbol/zoru-basarmaliyiz-h14464.html
>this penny punting double digit IQ slug that posts 'wtb' every few hours every single day even though he wouldn't even listen if we told him what 'the bet' was cause he just wants to get on mainstream SHIT
Yes. Bookies are clueless about the Kolmonen.
There are multiple regions too, the games that get carried are kinda random but there were loads on 365 last year and very profitable.
Team sheets are always posted pre-game which is god tier.
The info available to bookies knowledge ratio must be one of the best in the whole world desu.
>Team sheets are always posted pre-game which is god tier
Are team sheets that useful? Sometimes Ilves 2 will play first teamers but generally teams stay the same, all the regions were dire last season
>Bookies unironically fucking up the Filipino league again and thinking the matches were on last night when I'm pretty sure they're actually on tonight
>They probably won't carry them tonight because their info is fucked
Do bookies literally use soccerway? 2nd time they've fucked up the date on soccerway and the bookies have also fucked it up with their live schedule.
I think those league tables are last years though, just reset. They look like exactly the same teams, there should be a few different ones.
Think it starts sometime in March-May time so might be a bit early to research it now. Others in /bet/ will be researching it too as it gets closer.
It is prob easy as fuck if you speak Finnish as it is one of the worst languages for google translate to try to comprehend lel.
Feel sick at not being on desu
ah rubbish, first one never came in play anywhere so I went to bed thinking they'd cocked up again.
tbf I'd have probably taken Lyceum + unless it was stupidly small so it probably saved me money.
>This man earns 5k a month from group membership fees
Reminder that the REAL shrewdies have their own groups and make money from their muggy members by tipping easy bubblegum bets.
>Jan 9 - Aaron Ramsey Scores
>Jan 10 - David Bowie dies
>Jan 13 - Aaron Ramsey Scores
>Jan 14 - Alan Rickman dies
what the fuck is this witchcraft?
>Gronk didnt practice today lads Chiefs top up
I'm already way too far in.
This shit is getting weirder and weirder... I wouldn't even be surprised for it to turn out to be 100% patriots injury hijinks at this point t b h.
how many games finish with both teams within 5 points from each other? I'm guessing 35-40%? I dont bet NFL but would it be a good strategy just to bet SW underdog if the line isnt higher than +5?
If a line is +3 for instance and youre feeling good about the underdog's chances, i would automatically pick SW underdog for le value
Someone posted a graph of how many points a game often finishes by (3 was the most iirc) but Vegas already know this stuff so it isnt something you can really take into account imo.
pretty much this
but here's the graph for anyone interested
>All these kids 'bout to get blown out by Tom Terrific and Beligoat.
It's a pity your tenners can't move the line. Would dive into the Nestle savings account if the Patriots get on a -4.
Nothing is ever sure when the Pats are in play but I think it will be close, especially if the storm front moves in. No way Edelman is 100%, this gronk shit is weird, Amendola is meh and >32 year old Steven Jackson vs an extremely well rounded defense. Chiefs are the 2nd or 3rd most complete team in the league.
Sorry kiddos. The Chiefs do not turn the ball over much at all. The Chiefs defence is literally the perfect defence to disrupt Brady. Dont see how this will be a blowout.
Same as every year. Nobody. Then again they don't need to, they've got the best QB and HC in history. Their season is starting this weekend and Alex Smith is really not going to stand in the way of the Pats. pmsl at people even considering this.
Only QB worse than Smith they've lost to is Mark Sanchez. I'd say the one in for a surprise would be you, but then again wouldn't be a surprise at all when the Pats blow the doors off the Chefs. ;^)
>The Chiefs have beaten NOBODY of relevance this season.
This isn't college bitch ball. The best team in the NFL on the road at the worst team in the NFL is going to be like ~16 point favorites.
>not enjoying sport in all form
am I a danger for liking divegrass? zzzzzz
Reminder that Nick Goff says he only knew one Bowie song and only knew that because Nirvana covered it. He is at least 33 years old, seems to know next to nothing about anything outside of sports and still feels qualified to call everyone else massive dangers and tell everyone how wrong they are about trivial things.
Wonder how the Redskins who hadn't beaten anyone of relevance either got blown out by the dire Packers offense. The Chefs are going to be outplayed and out coached. Deal with it. ;^)
Flacco & Eli are barely better than Smith, they are just flashier players.
Dunno why you are expecting the Pats to score so many points, do you not realise how good the Chiefs defence is?
Asinine comparison. The Redskins were an average (15-17th) team with an overrated QB who made the playoffs in a shit division and the Packers are playing like shit but they still have an elite QB, tons of talent, and a super bowl pedigree. The Chefs are probably in the 2-4 range and have been popping on film for me; they do nothing flashy but they're am extremely complete football machine executing at an elite level.
We shall see saturday
The Pats their main weakness are big plays. Alex Smith is the worst qb to try and abuse those. He's going to get cucked by Belichek.
Flacco was UNREAL in the season he won the superbowl and I don't know how you're going to call Eli barely better than Alex Smith when he has beaten Brady twice when it mattered and has more rings than his brother.
>write "bet," "odds," "win/loss," and "payout" in columns A, B, C, and D respectively. Bold them or whatever to differentiate them as column headers
>write "=if(c2="w",d2=a2*b2,d2=-a2*b2) in the d2 column
>click the d2 cell and drag the bottom right corner down to repeat that formula
this creates a sheet that does what you want if you put the pound value of the bet in the A column and the odds in decimal format in the B column, and differentiate a winning bet by putting a "w" in the win/loss column.
learning excel is extremely +ev, both in betting and literally any career
TOXIC is my 2nd favorite stat after DVOA (which is essentially even against NFL spreads when forced to pick EVERY game)
typoed, copy paste that exactly
could be a WORLD gimmick if you put $50 on and did it exactly like they did but actually succeeded. bonus if you post screenshots in the sub... over -20 karma @ 1.01
I would appreciate that loads, thanks
jakesanders275@gmail is one
I was too cool to listen desu
doubtful, it's more likely that I'll use it for many years to come in angry burger anon's name
Imagine betting on any line requiring a 2 goal or more win in the Turkish cup, just imagine STILL doing this after 4 rounds of group games and 2 knockout rounds. Bet Mackers is pissing himself that people actually pay for shite like this.
You really don't. December was a real struggle and January is worse so far. I know others are finding it tough too but the a/w racing really needs to pick up...state of that Lingfield card tomorrow...barely any qualifiers for the bets I post here and then if there are the prices are rank
I long for death to claim me with a cold but comforting embrace.
It was just because I took -2 from 1-0 up but then 2nd half started so shit (literally one off target shot in the first 30 mins of 2nd half) I took U4.5 so 4-0 is best ending for me.
Can't pretend I had great info or anything.
Missed a day but best meme of 2016