>>1036272 But if it does materialise won't oil be suppressed for ages? Or will the shitty equities market mean people don't feel so bad about spending on commodities and commodity derivatives (consumer products) thus pushing the price higher?
>>1036305 Bond yields are going up, so most people with a balanced portfolio won't give a shit that stocks are shitting the bed atm. Most people short the s&p to reduce their risk exposure, not for memes sake
>>1036311 at worst they dip 2% because I said so xD
china's credit bubble is imploding. oil is gonna keep dropping and pull a lot of american energy companies into bankruptcy. dollar will strengthen even more from those two things and hurt exports. a US recession within 18 months is likely. you ain't seen nothing yet
>>1036334 ya no i got that, but like which ETF is the gang going with? Im looking at SPXU and SPXS. I know I'm basically entering midway through the shift in value of these ETF's, but better late then never I always say. Just wondering if there's something else everyone was shorting.
But really I wouldn't do either. There will probably be a serious correction or even a recession in the next couple years, but S&P could go on a +40% run before that for all I know. The fact that everyone and their uncle knows that oil is going to go up means that you probably won't get anything like abnormal returns. It's priced correctly given the time involved and risk premium.
>>1037463 do whatever then. buy in now. makes no difference to me. if you can't tell what the market is doing, then go ahead. that type of attitude is what keeps 90% of stock investors/traders in the red.
honestly unless trump is elected we're gonna see a proper recession
>>1037510 do i literally have to explain this to you? it's not about what you don't know i'm wondering, but what about you do know. what have you read on the subject?
what do you think the market's indications are? what do you think the global and national (US) economy's state is? what do you think is going on politically? i'll say it again, unless trump is elected, we're still going for our scheduled recession.
>it's not about what you don't know i'm wondering, but what about you do know. what have you read on the subject?
No, it's about you, not me. You produced your forecast, so you are gonna have to explain it to everybody.
>what do you think the market's indications are?
China indications are down, and it tries to devalue it's currency to get it's industrial production to grow faster.
Yurop tries to devalue it's currency, to get better exports.
US has strengthened it's currency, because it believes it has a strong economy. The currency strengthening ofcourse fucks over all the commodities and production, so I don't even know what the fuck is going on.
At the moment, markets as a whole shit their pants over china.
That's all I know and you probably aint any smarter, since you can't answer my questions.
>>1037542 there's a fantastic book which i could tell you about but now that i think of it, i won't. fuck you. safe to say it's a proven book by a proven author who made over 100+ mil on stocks. to paraphrase one thing he said about the general market, you DO NOT need to know what the market will be doing (or allegedly doing). you need to know what the market IS doing. and what it is doing is goind DOWN (since the month you mentioned, august, not just late december).
you're the one forecasting and asking stupid questions like >how do you know it hasn't bottomed out
>>1036305 Here's what you oilfags don't understand. Oil isn't going back up and if it does it'll do so slowly. Oil is cheap because there is a humongous glut of production right now and virtually no supply risks on the horizon. Buyers are stocking up while its cheap so the longer the glut lasts the more reserves people will have for when production slows down, deflecting any immediate price increases. Unless the Middle East collectively, literally (not figuratively, literally), bursts into flames overnight oil is going to continue dropping or stay where it is.
>>1038402 not a banker. some of those predictions in the pic aren't necessarily wrong. also, yesterday i predicted the S&P500 would see a minor short term (read, 1 or 2 days) rise because of the way it behaved yesterday. opened and went down, then went back up to nearly it's original price. today was the opposite. guess what's gonna happen next.
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