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Ok, My first commander has a 30% chance to use his attack skill each turn
My second commander has a 35% chance at the start of each battle to use his 4 turn delay skill. If he doesn't activate this skill on the first turn for the rest of combat his unit is basically a brick waiting to die
My third commander has 2 skills, a 30% chance attack skill each turn and an 80% counter attack skill that activates 30% of the time (30% of the time I get to activate the skill, for the rest of combat no matter how long the battle lasts they have an 80% chance to counterattack)
My fourth commander has a 55% chance to block an enemy skill
My fifth commander has a 20% chance each round to increase the damage of all other commanders.
What is the chance on turn one that at least one commander uses his skill? What is the chance each round after that that at least one commander uses his skill?
This is ONE TEAM. I have 19 attack teams and 1 defender. How in the unholy name of Cthulhu do I calculate this shit for myself?
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>>364758
You either don't bother, sit down and do the math, or run a simulation a few thousand times and analyze the results.
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The odds that at least one of your commanders uses a skill on the first turn is 1 - N, where N = the odds that none of your commanders use a skill on the first turn. To calculate N, you multiply the odds of each skill not being used. Assuming I'm interpreting the third commander's odds correctly, you'd get:
N = .7 * .65 * .7 * .7 * .45 * .8
N = .080262
1 - N = .919738
So there's about a 92% chance that at least one of your commanders will use/activate a skill on turn 1. Calculating the odds for the further turns gets a bit more complicated, because of the branching paths from the 30/80 split in the third commander's counterattack skill. Basically, there's four different possibilities, again assuming I'm not misinterpreting the specifics of the second & third commanders:
When it's not turn 1 or turn 4, the second commander does nothing. If the third commander's counterattack skill hasn't activated, then you get:
N = .7 * .7 * .7 * .45 * .8
N = .12348
1 - N = .87652
If the third commander's counterattack skill is active, then:
N = .7 * .7 * .2 * .45 * .8
N = .03528
1 - N = .96472
There's a 35% chance the second commander gets to use his skill on turn 4, so you include a *.65 term in the N for that turn. If counterattack still isn't activated, the odds are same as turn 1. If counterattack is active:
N = .7 * .65 * .7 * .2 * .45 * .8
N = .022932
1 - N = .977068
Now, you can also calculate the odds that counterattack will be activated by a given turn (1 - .7^(t-1)) t = turn number, and apply that to the above calculations to the odds to get the exact probability a skill will be used on a given turn before the battle occurs - assuming that none of the commanders are killed or disabled by that turn.
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>>364770
I think I can chug that through a simple spreadsheet. Once I understand the basics for setting up the equation I can start grinding through other teams and tweak them for best results
Pretty good.
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