>item has 1% drop rate >kill the boss 100 times and it

>>382008343
That's not true retard. Take a basic probability class

>>382008509
The 101th run will still have a 1% drop chance, same as the person doing his first run.

>>382008509
*tips fedora*

>>382008509
it is true tho...?

well, ignoring the fact that it's likely a PRNG driving it

>>382008343
The probability of a drop rate is independent which means that if you kill said boss once the probability of you getting your meme item is still 1%.

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This is the exact reason I quit monster hunter.

>hurr why would i want to do thing in a game more than once durr

ITT first grade math

>>382008343
What is the gambler's fallacy

>plebs don't think to apply a binomial distribution

>>382008892
wew

>>382008343
If only more games have thresholds.

i.e. after certain points with no drop, the drop chance increases

I remember running Stratholme solo on my Death Knight back in Cata I think trying to get the Baron mount. It had a 1% drop rate at the time so I told myself if it doesn't drop within 100 runs I'll just give up. Didn't drop.

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>every time you kill the monster the drop rate increases by 1/10000
>after hours of farming some shitlord walks by and gets the drop
>back to 1/10000

>>382008343
>what is histogram

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>tfw you thought trying a 1% event 100 times means it's 100% you'll win
>it's actually only like 10%

>>382008983
does that not go against the point of having a super low drop chance?

>>382008343
yeah and that's the purpose of probability
if you throw a dice, it'll be the same

>item has 1% drop
>there's a chance you won't get the item after 1000 runs

>>382008989
>never get mount
>friend gets it on his third try
Fucking nigger.

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>>382009120
snake eyes

>>382008343
mmorpg shit is worse than any assfaggots

>>382009321
i doubt you redpilled the good post anon

>friend really wants an unusual in tf2
>barely stop them from buying 100 keys to "guarantee" one
>they just buy one for 30 keys instead and they're happy with it to this day

wew lad

>>382008343
>item has 1% drop rate
>kill the boss 50 times and have it drop twice
>realize I'm retarded to be happy about this and uninstall without giving my items to anyone
fuck grinders

it's actually a 50% drop rate... either it drops or it doesnt. theres no other options

>>382008343
i've lready thought about this and the probability should adapt like you said yes

the same way, loot should be categorized
like
kill one thief, you get jewels (not considered lost)
or
kill one thief, you get his weapon/armor stuff (not considered broken/used)

>>382009596
>What is a drop rate?
fucking mongoloid

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>>382008343
>payout for average drops of a certain monster is mediocre
>has a 1/6000 drop that's insanely expensive
>get a drop from it thats 1/25000, worth not even a fraction of what it usually drops
shamans can go fuck themselves

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>game gives you a mcguffin after each successful run of a level
>Collect 15 mcguffins to combine the mcguffin into a boss drop

Slow progression beats no progression

>>382009062
More like 60%

http://ah-web.at/mobs.php

>>382008343
I'm assuming you're baiting, but that's not how probability works.

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ITT people don't understand basic probability

The chances of you getting the drop within 100 attempts isn't 100%, it's the inverse of the probability that the item will NOT drop on any of those 100 attempts

The chance you will not get the drop on any one attempt is 99% or .99

.99^100 = ~.36

The chances of not getting the 1% drop in any of 100 attempts is 36%. Therefore the chances of getting the 1% drop within 100 attempts is 64%.

>>382010561
Your a lier

>>382010561
At the end of the day you either get it or you dont. Thats 50/50

>Muh probability

Doesn't matter. You either get it or you dont

>>382008343
there's still was a chance higher than 1% that you would've gotten the item after killing 100 bosses. i don't know how to calculate it though.

If you kill the boss 100 times you're guaranteed to get it, retard.

>>382009192
Incredible low chance though.

>>382011153
No, that's the gambler's fallacy.

I calculated the chance of getting at least one 1% drop in 100 attempts here >>382010561 ; it's 64%

But that's based on not knowing the results of any of the loot rolls.

If you're on loot roll 99 and it's your 99th straight failure, the chances of getting the loot drop on your next roll is not 64%. It's 1%.

>>382008343
A similar question came up on /sci/ a long time and these tards couldn't come to a conclusion the whole thread.Is there a more meme field than statistics and probabilty lmao

>>382010979
I know you're baiting but please stop.

>>382011309
No.

see >>382010561


>>382011321
>>382009192
.99^1000=~.0000432
1-.000432=.9999568

You'd have a 99.995% chance of getting the drop within 1000 attempts.

There are no laws to demand a developer does anything.

They can say soemthing has a 10% chance and it really has .0001%. They can have a system in place where if you don't get it after a set amount it boosts the chance.

they can do what they want, no matter what they tell you ingame.

>>382011463
>Reee you're baiting if you don't needlessly complicate things

Games should have drop rates that increase on kill until the item drops then it resets for particularly rare items.

>people actually and unironically spend hours and hours doing the exact same thing expecting a different result

Literally insanity

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>>382011541
>basic statistical analysis is needless complexity

>>382009596
I know you're joking but there are people who literally believe this.

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>item has a less than 10% drop rate
>game is 1 single player only

>>382011527
that's not the case for paid mmos though, in some countries they are made to reveal their % chances
money changes everything

>>382008992
TOS edgy drop logic... i don't mind it

>>382010024
3/10 for briefly hooking me.

>>382011527
>they can say soemthing has a 10% chance and it really has .0001%.

This would be really easy to notice tough.

If you're a hardcore (retarded) grinder you can even notice the difference between 10% and 5%.

>>382008343
its not actually a chance at all because computers are incapable of being random. lots of games just use the last two digits of the cpu clock at the exact millisecond the 'roll' is made. in such cases if you made the game run a few 1000 times slower you could time it right so you kill the boss exactly when it will drop the rare loot, every single time

>>382008509
Sounds like you're the one who needs to take a stats class. Look up the gambler's fallacy, you just committed it

>>382011665
>You either get it or you dont thats 50/50
>ackstshually if you want to do mental gymnastics its going to come out at blah blah minus Z y minus blah

>>382012019
>lots of games just use the last two digits of the cpu clock at the exact millisecond the 'roll' is made
What? No.

They may use that as a seed for the RNG algorithm but no one just plain uses a time stamp as a replacement for a proper generative algorithm.

>>382009321
Hell yeah

>>item has 1% drop rate
>>kill the boss 100 times and it doesn't drop
that's not how probabilities work
please try not dropping out of high school

>>382012117
This

>>382010979
Also this

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There are three doors. Behind one, a treasure consisting of a video game, and behind the other two, ps4 games.

You get to choose a door, but it won't be opened quite yet. The host will open a door that was not picked which will always show a ps4 game. You may keep the door you initially chose, or you can challenge to choose the remaining door. Challenge consists of a coin flip where you get to switch the door with a correct guess, but with a wrong guess you will get the already opened ps4 game door.

What will you do?

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>>382014808

>>382014808
What ps4 game is it?

>>382014808
Please, dont

Even if most of the people are just baiting, this is one of the only memes in this mongolian manga website that unironically make me triggered.

>>382016493
Did you not read it through? It has an added twist to make your brain circulate blood.

>PSO drop chances
Who has experienced this hell?

>>382008343
I logged into WoW for the first time after a long time when 4.2 came out and I ended up taming the rare spirit owl on my Hunter, managed to glitch into the molten front on day one and tame half the beasts in there with two other Hunter buddies, and then went and killed the Raven Lord for the first time and got the mount. Never been that lucky again in my life.

thats just being an uneducated idiot

>>382008343
I thought that's how it always works in games. You don't get 100% drop chance on your 100th run, it's still 1% and it gives you an excuse to be salty at the guy who got the item on ther 1st run.

>item has 10% drop rate
>since it's digital there's probably some behind the scenes fuckery going on that changes the drop
I don't trust drop rates in games.

>most dungeons give you a drop for you class at the end
>still takes a long time to get a full set because shit ass luck
I just want some cool glamours

>>382020563
>you can get set pieces that you cant use
Whats the fucking point

>>382008343

t. Mathlet

>>382012075
>gambler's fallacy
but he did not
I am not saying he is correct but you are also wrong.

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>dlc introduces roaming boss
>enter a dungeon, he shows up in the loading screen
>base games roaming boss shows up at the start of the dungeon with the new one at the other >beat the shit out of both of them

>>382011527

>XCOM

>>382014808
Kill yourself shitter

>>382008343
>item has 0.1% drop rate
>need two of them
>kill 1000 mobs and it doesn't drop
>start getting mad the more mobs I kill
>finally get 1 drop after almost 1500 kills
>still mad
>get the second one after the 1700th kill
>don't know how to feel
Always remember to pray to the RNGod.

>>382008509
fucking idiot, look up prng

>Get a drop that sells for a ton of cash
>"Yeaaaah maybe I should keep this for now"
>Use it for a sweet piece of armor much later in the game

Thanks RNGsus

>>382020126
Desire sensors that fuck you would be incredibly malicious. Expect our AI overlords to abuse us with them.

ITT:No one got it right.

>>382014808
Switch door. Everytime. I have -5 luck on initial rolls.

The answer is 63% chance of getting the drop. If op did it 300 times, he'd have a 95% chance of a drop.

>>382022457
>get a drop that sells for a ton of cash
>"Yeaaaah maybe I should keep this for now"
>developers decide to turn limited item into seasonal item, and they put the item back into drop table
>now everyone have the fucking item and it isn't worth a dime