Math nerds. I need your help. So, a game that I'm playing

Also, to explain further, the stun penalty is entire the DM's invention and I feel like he borked the math on this because my character spends a lot of time in stuns. He told me the odds of the 1d6 being higher than the 1d8 are 12% but that doesn't seem right to me at all.

Is he fucking with me?

>>53567939
We're gonna add up all the safe combinations to derive the probability of a stun.

If you roll a 1 in the d6, you're safe, so that's 1/6
2[d6] has 7 safe options on the d8, so that's 7/48
3[d6] has 6 safe options, so 1/8
4[d6] has 5, so 5/48
5[d6] has 4, so 1/12
6[d6] has 3, so 1/16

1/16 + 1/12 + 5/48 + 1/8 + 7/48 + 1/6 = 0.6875 = ~69% chance of action succeeding

ergo, you're looking at a ~31% chance of being stunned each time you make the 1d6 1d8 check

>>53567880
Here are the odds, source is my statistics degree.

1/6 chance of a 0% chance of stun
1/6 chance for a 12.5% chance of stun
1/6 chance for a 25% chance of stun.
1/6 chance for a 37.5 percent chance of stun
1/6 chance for a 50% chance of stun
1/6 chance for a 62.5% chance of stun.

(Assuming that if you roll doubles there is no stun).
That averages out to a 31.25% chance of stun each round.

If you get stunned when rolling 2 of the same number, you actually have a 46.75% chance of stun.

Your GM is terrible at math.

>>53568076
Damn, beat me to it.

>>53567880
>>53568149
Also, OP, i'm feeling nice now, so if you want, I can give a short lesson on dice in statistics.

>>53568076
>>53568149
Thanks, guys. And honestly, I don't need a lesson -- the 1d8,1d6 thing is entirely an asspull on his part and I look forward to ramming these numbers down his throat.

>>53567880
http://anydice.com/program/bde1

>>53568076
>>53568149
Actually, I'm completely retarded. It's 31% to have to roll 2d6+2 for the stun check. Let me give you the full move.

While pursuing one of your appetites if you would roll for a move, instead of rolling 2d6 you roll 1d6+1d8. If the d6 is the higher die of the pair, roll 2d6+2:
On 9 or lower, you’re stunned and you take 2 Damage (Ignoring armor) in exhaustion.
On 10+ you can rein yourself in, but take 2 Damage (ignoring armor) in exhaustion
On 12+ you recover fully, your turn continues as per usual.

This mechanic is so convoluted it makes my head hurt. Obviously, the 2d6+2 odds are better but still I'd like to hear feedback.

>>53568279
No problem! So is it the 31.25 or the 46.75 stun scenario?

Also, for comparing 2 dice results, you can always make an X by Y table and plot the results.

Other odd dice probability bits i knowoff the top of my head.

161/36 is the average of 2 dice take the highest. The odds of getting a 1/2/3 etc are the diffetence of successive squares out of 36. (1,3,5,7,9,11).

Variance of a d6 is 2.91666, standard deviation is the square root of that.

Anyways, i'll be in the star wars thread if you need me in the future to explain to your GM why he is wrong.

Have a nice night!

>>53568366
So the probability you get stunned is:

31% * 21/36 (58.333%) = 18.08%

Probability of reining in but taking damage
31% * 25% (probability of rolling an 8 or 9 on 2d6) = 7.75%

Probability of recovering fully

31% * 8.332% (probability of rolling 10+ on 2d6) = ~2.58%

So percentage of you not being stunned in total is 100 - 18.08%

Source: not any of the posters in the thread but am a math student. Could be wrong but I think I'm good. here's a valuable source for you: http://alumnus.caltech.edu/~leif/FRP/probability.html

>>53568366
starting from the top and working down:

1/36 to roll 12+2 = 14
2/36 to roll 13
3/36 to roll 12

P(recover) = 1/6 -> P(safe) = 0.6875 + 0.3125x(1/6) = ~73.96% chance of total safety

>>53568366
This is partially ripped from the DW Barbarian.

>>53568447
>>53568459
Help me out with these numbers, guys. A bit confused by the explanations.

So, it's an 18% chance to get stunned, or a 16% chance?
>>53568473
Yeah, it's a modified DW system.

>>53568433
>>53568366
Your DM is bad at math once again. He could lower the end results by 2 and not add 2 to the roll for the same result.

You have a 1/12 chance of getting the best result of a normal turn, a 21/36 of getting the worst result of both stun and damage, and a 1/3 chance of getting the in-between result of just damage, assuming that you already got the 31.25% chance of having to roll on the table.

In short, every time you move, you have an 18.229 percent chance of getting stunned, and a 28.65% chance of taking damage.

Also, comparing a 2d6 move to a 1d6+1d8 move, you only add an average of 1.

>>53568545
isn't it a 1/4 chance of getting the in between result of just damage?

because 8 on a 2d6 = 4/36
9 on a 2d6 = 5/36

4/36 + 5/36 = 9/36 = .25

>>53568545
I made a small mistake, it's a 1/6 chance to get the nostun no damage result, and a 1/4 for the damage but no stun result.

Total chance of taking damage whenever you move should be 26.04%. >>53568447
You're good.

Also, for getting any result on 2d6, it is 7/36 for getting a 7, and goes down by 1/36 each stepyou take away from 7. Useful tip for OP abd anyone taking a probability course.

>>53568526
assuming you've failed the 1d6 1d8 check, there's 36 outcomes. in 6 of those outcomes, you're fine (12 or better); 9 outcomes have you damage but no stun(10-11) and the remaining 21 outcomes you get stunned. Ergo,

P(stunned) = P(fail first check)xP(stunned second check) = 0.3125x0.5833 = 18.22% chance of stun

P(damage) = P(fail first) + P(damage second check) = 0.3125x0.25 = 7.81% chance of damage

P(safe) = P(pass first check) + P(fail first check)xP(pass second check) 0.6875 + 0.3125x0.16667 = 73.96% chance of pass everything

>>53568608
Phoneposting at 2 AM keeps getting me ninja'd.

Also, what subtype/specialty is your math degree in, out of curiosity?

>>53568447
>>53568545
>>53568632


Also, so you guys know, the DM requires me to roll 14+ to access the Smash move which adds a 1d10 to my damage roll (which is the only thing keeping my class' damage competitive with the other classes.)

So, my goal on every turn is to roll a 1d6,1d8+3 (STR modifier) to hit 14+. The STR modifier doesn't affect the 1d6 being lower than the 1d8 throwing me into the WIS save mechanic (2d6+2).

So basically, this seems like terrible design for my class. Am I wrong?

>>53568648
it's definitely needlessly convoluted, thats for sure. also, made a typo earlier, should be


P(damage) = P(fail first)xP(damage second check) = 0.3125x0.25 = 7.81% chance of damage

>>53568617
6/36 for getting a 7*.

I need to typo less.

Or get out an actual keyboard.

>>53568643
I'm just a general math major. I do epidemiology research which is really fun. I'm doing google summer of code this summer though, probably just going to go into development.

>>53568648
That seems really convoluted, I don't really understand it.

>>53568690
Originally, the class got an extra 1d10 on rolling 12+ with 1d6,1d8, so the DM felt he needed a good penalty for the 1d6,1d8 roll and came up with the stun mechanic. To be fair, it's kind of hard to balance these shitty class mechanics as it is and honestly, I didn't have any better options.

His math was wrong though, so I'm not sure what to do about it.

>>53568648
Your DM is absolute shit at math.

Also, i can give a breakdown, but i need clarification.

If you roll a 6 on the d6, a 5 on the d8, do you still get to do your smash, or does your character immediately roll to see if he tards out?

>>53568724
why not just get a major penalty for rolling low on the 1d6, 1d8? Like a 5 or lower on the total roll and you get stunned?

>>53568725
No. If the d6 is higher than the d8 under any circumstances, it goes into the wonky mechanic. If you get stunned, you don't deal your damage on that turn.

>>53568690
Good luck with the job search then! I'm a stat major with a comp sci minor- i work with large data analytics, but everyone seems to want software developers, to the point i've been brought aboard to do software development. Popular field. Pick up a strange language for a job search edge.

>>53568690
>>53568779

i'm an astronomer, studying my masters in astrophysics. truly, /tg/ drags in all sorts

>>53568779
I really wanted to do data analytics but it seems like the field is oversaturated nowadays and a little underpaid compared to software engineering.

I'm actually picking up clojure right now along with my GSOC stuff. Seems like solid tech and has a lot of potential.

I'd love to chat in the future, if you have some easy way to contact you.

>>53568764
Well, 6 or lower is usually the mechanic for something like that.

If you're rolling 1d6,1d8 +3 though, what are the odds for rolling 6 or lower with Herculean? Pretty damn low, right?

>>53568777
Alright, i'll give a full breakdown now.

You have 48 possble die roll results. Of those, 15 result in you checking to see if you tard out.

Of the 48- there are 10 that give you the chance to smash.

So you have 48

24/48 of a normal turn.
14/48 of rolling to see if you are retarded normally.
9/48 of getting your big swing without rolling to see if you have a stroke.
1/48 chance of rolling (6,5), and checking to see if you tard out and if you don't, getting to smash.

Remember, if you do have to roll on the 'am I disabled' table, you have a 21/36 chance of losing your turn, and a 5/6 chance of taking damage.

You only actually get to do your big smash 19.6% of the time. with an 18.229% chance to lose a turn each time and a 26.04% chance to hurt yourself, not sure that's worth it.

Any questions?

>>53568802
It kind of is, but it's getting oversaturated mostly by chinese student visa kids, not americans. Guess who the US government (major source of analytics jobs, lots of DoD positions) won't hire? So it works if you don't mind working for mattis. Also, most companies won't hire chinese student visa kids due to so many of them cheating through school, so less competition.

[email protected], will send link to actual email.

>>53568859
A 6 or lower that way (1d6+1d8+3) happens 3/48 times.

>>53569011
shot you an email.

That's true, but I'm not super interested in working for the government or a contractor anyways.

It seems like the income ceiling for data science-y people is pretty low too.

Nothing to contribute to the thread . Other than saying this is the most pleasant conversation ive followed on tg in a while. Bravo anons.

>>53569090
this is what happens when there's no incessant shitposting and you have a real topic to discuss, I guess.

Things on every blue board used to be like this...before our god emperor entered the scene.

>>53569090
OP here.

Absolutely this. I honestly didn't expect such genuine help. I really do appreciate it. Very refreshing.

Have a good night, guys and again, thanks.

>>53569074
It's pretty good, not quite as high as software development though. Software engineers like my dad had a joke- what's the difference between a software developer and a software engineer? - Around $30k starting.

Big data still a stem field. whereas software development/engeering had a huge uptick in demand not quite matched by supply, big datahad a huge uptick in demand, and acloser match in supply.

Ceiling is pretty high though, as data analytics transitions well into management positions, and you can't really let them go from a company. Doesn't go into the multiple 100's of thousands that software engineering can hit, but even without switching internally to a managment position you can break $150k.

Also DoD pays well, albeit long term, whereas analysts at a larger financial company can get crazy money, and daytrade at the same time.

That's another potential thing for software developers, working at a board of trade/trading company. Trade options in your downtime at work.

(Also, learn how options trading works regardless)

>>53569200
Night. If you need me to explain to your gm why my math holds, you have my 4chan-facing email.

>>53569206
Very interesting, thanks for your thoughts.

Any resources you used to learn options trading? Sick of /biz/ crypto-memes.

>>53568779
CompSci major here. Can't advise picking up a "strange language", but can absolutely vouch that more languages means more job options. I'd say to start with all the common basics then branch out to the specialized ones in whatever field seems interesting.

I'm personally headed the computer security route, but yeah, development is the hot shit for sure-thing jobs. Heard from one of my professors that the 2020 job outlook is 5 CS jobs per CS-qualified individual.

Personally can't decide if I want to stop at Master's or go for the PHD. All the theory is extremely fascinating, but I'm far more fond of learning it than proving it.

>>53567880
There are a total of 48 possibilities

Of them 2>1, 3>1, 3>2, 4>1, 4>2, 4>3, 5>1, 5>2, 5>3, 5>4, 6>1, 6>2, 6>3, 6>4, and 6>5, result in stun.so a 15/48 chance, or 31.25%. 21/48 if equal stuns as well for 43.75%

>>53568149
>source is my statistics degree.
I mean, your math is correct, but do you really need to cite a college level math degree for that? I teach 7th grade math, and this is within the purview of a question I'd put on a test.

>>53569745
some people can be really rude or unbelieving on 4chan.

File: 1412881668532.jpg (22KB, 358x392px) Image search: [Google]

22KB, 358x392px

>>53569753
true, though I've found /tg/ to have a much better culture than the rest of the site. Cheers

>>53569745
>I teach 7th grade math, and this is within the purview of a question I'd put on a test.
For some reason, people just mentally shut down when it comes to simple math when randomness gets involved. I play with a bunch of undergrads, I'm the only one in the group who can do the calculations for dice odds past "1 in 20 rolls of a d20 is a 20".

>>53569794
I've been coming here on and off for about 10 years. I'd call this one of its lower points but I still prefer /tg/ over most of the other boards I visit.

>>53571581
>I've been coming here on and off for about 10 years. I'd call this one of its lower points
It's kind of hard to compete with Nazi Mod, or the period that led up to Nazi Mod, for that matter. Or the period immediately after Nazi Mod left, after that one-two punch of cancer and Hitlerism had driven many of the creative people from the board and choked the life out of /tg/. Or the height of the edition wars. So it's difficult for me to see this as one of /tg/'s lower points.

>>53567939
>12%
Why didn't he just have you roll a d100 and get stunned by anything 12 or lower?