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Is it possible to make money from Sportsbetting using Elo Ratings

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Is it possible to make money from Sportsbetting using Elo Ratings from FiveThirtyEight?

To me, it seems unlikely, because the Elo Ratings would not only have to be better predictors of sporting events than the Sportsbook, but they would also have to overcome the 4-5% advantage that the house gives itself.

In addition, sportsbooks have to put their money on the line with their predictions, whereas 538 or any other site offering predictions doesn't lose any money when their projections are marginally out.

Despite my pessimism, I would like to know if anybody on this board has consistently beaten the house using this or any other statistical method, particularly with the NFL season starting.
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Step 1: send 4000 emails touting your lock prediction game for this weekend. half pick home, half pick visitor.
Step 2: throw away the 2000 addresses where you picked the wrong team, then send a mail to the remaining 2000 bragging about your prediction and making a prediction for this weekend, half pick the home team, half pick the visitors.
Step 3: throw away the 1000 addresses who you gave the wrong pick
Step 4: send message to the remaining 1000 addresses bragging about your two predictions, saying that if you want to get any more winners you'll need to buy my $99 pick'em service.
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>>9154976
lol
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>>9154946
I don't know about Sportsbetting, but unless all betting websites use the same (or one of few) ratings to predict their winners, there got to be sites with bad predictions that are beatable, just because there are so many betting sites.
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>>9155008
assuming they pay out. 2001 Superbowl Pats vs Rams, there was a Vegas casino giving a little better payout for the underdog Pats, so lots of Pats money flocked there, only they went belly up without being able to pay everyone.

They don't care if people win a little more often than they lose, because the vig percentage means you're treading water at 55.5%
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>>9155026
Yeah, but you can make micro-bets where you have little risk.

You could even try to find the betting site with the most accurate predictions, then use their predictions to bet against the worst betting site (and only bet if the difference between estimations exceeds the house advantage)
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>>9154976
Simpsons did it.
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>>9154946
Strongly doubt you can make money betting on sports using pecota or anything else he has developed simply for the fact that the systems are available for purchase. Its definitely possible to profit consistently if you were to create your own model.
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>>9154976
This is how hedge funds work btw
Thread posts: 9
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