>I flip a coin >I look at the result (heads), but don't

>>9026233
66%

>>9026233
Both are correct.
Probabilities like this is calculated based on the information you have at hand.

>>9026235
67%

>>9026233
you are not estimating probability at that point, you're just being a dick

>>9026236
That seems like it would have significant philosophical ramifications.

>>9026246
Common sense is now a "significant philosophical ramification", apparently.

>>9026246
The reason we use probablities to describe the outcome of a cointoss is because we are ignorant to all the different variables influencing the outcome.
Statistic is just math for describing stuff we cant describe exactly.

>>9026251
I was thinking more about relative truths, but sure.

>>9026251
welcome to usa

>>9026233
There are different interpretations for what probability actually means. There are layman definitions that are sort of semirigorous and usually useful, which is often supported by a bayesian world view. Then there is a highly formalized language of mathematics that is used to improve predictive capacity. When applied it is not concerned with the philosophy of the endeavor, only with what is practical.

One interpretation of probability of an event is the long run average. In this case basically by definition, a perfect coin flip has a 50% chance of landing on heads. In this very specific case, the observer can logically state that "the probability of coin being revealed to have landed on heads is 50%" because he would expect exact repitions of this scenario to have heads be revealed 50% of the time.
The man who flipped the coin is in a different situation. He is not stating the probability by this definition, because the coin has already been revealed to him. He could not say "there is a 100% chance the coin lands on heads." To be logically consistent he would say "there is a 100% chance that the coin landed on heads." But this is just a statement that the coin landed on heads. It is not an analysis of the behavior of the coin over multiple trials.

Probability is either a forward-looking statement or a statement about an abstract set of experiments. If you're describing an event that has already happened, you can describe the probability of that event happening before it occurred, but the situation you've described is an improper use of probability.

>>9026233
I am, because there's a 50% chance for your binary answer to be a lie, hence making it 50% again

>>9026233
>>i'm asked what the probability of heads is, and i say 100%
maybe ask a better question indicating whether we want the probability of the next flip being heads or the flip that was just made

File: wildb_check.png (258KB, 534x325px) Image search: [Google]

258KB, 534x325px

>>9026246
B A Y E S

what is the root of the coin? Physical models based on math/mathematical models based on physic. GET THE FUCK OUT OF EARTH, MATHEMATICIANS, IF ONE MORE OF U STUDY AT A USA STATE SCHOOL I SWEAR TO GOD.

>>9026233
Assuming a fair coin 50% chance for heads is standard.

However you run the trial and observe the result. There is no further probability, because you have a concrete result. The other person is not aware of the result and makes a prediction based on the information they have.

>>9026238
h o w

>>9026233
>Who is correct?
Both are correct. Probability is a description of uncertainty in a mind. Your mind is not my mind, and you and I do not have the same uncertainty about the coin; consequently, we have different probabilities about the state of the coin.