So /sci/? >The main question is whether this detailed da

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So /sci/?

>The main question is whether this detailed data may be trusted at the centennial scale. If it can, the centennial averaged temperatures at a place, in this case a place in Antarctica, may very well change by more than 2 °C in one century. The causes of these warming and cooling episodes were almost certainly natural. It's almost completely normal for the temperature to change by more than 2 °C per century. What we were getting in the 20th century is much more modest.

>But this isn't the most important point, I think. What I find more important is that the Vostok data indicate that there simply exist natural reasons that may change the temperature by more than 1 °C and perhaps more than 2 °C per century rather often and these effects, whatever they are, therefore may be responsible for the 20th century "global warming", too, or for most of it. Also, 1-degree or 2-degree warming episodes were often followed by similarly abrupt cooling (or vice versa). We can't really exclude this possibility.

>The 20th and 21st century may really be analogous to the years between 6226 and 6043 B.C. Back then, the temperature went up by 2.5 °C in the first century and returned back down by 2.5 °C in the following century. How confident you may be that the 21st century won't experience similar cooling as the cooling between 6091 and 6043 B.C. which followed a century of rapid warming? I think that you simply can't be more than 99 percent confident because in 1% of cases or so, the Earth managed to produce a significant cooling like that.

http://motls.blogspot.com/2017/02/vostok-warming-or-cooling-by-2-c-per.html