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https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_rate_fallacy
Can someone explain this fallacy in layman's terms? It seems like bullshit, but maybe because I'm guilty of using it.
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>>8582159
>m.
mobile posters get out
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>>8582165
>I'm an entirely different person because I decided to shitpost in public rather than wait until I got home.
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>>8582159
If a phenomenon occurs very rarely a test has to be much more precise in order to be accurate.
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Basically, when presented with a specific case exibiting a certain trait X, you're tempted to think it was chosen from a set restricted to cases with this trait, while in reality it is from the universal set. Then, if this trait is almost exclusively associated with some other trait you are led to think this latter trait is likely to also be present. (Which would be true, if the presented case would indeed be chosen from a restricted set)
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>>8582181
Is that why they then retest them at the police station with more concise abilities?
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>>8582165
Luddite detected
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