Nevada Democrats Leading in Early Votes

>>96577720
democrats usually win early votes in swing states even when they lose the state.

>>96577720
he can win without it

>>96579036
Describe to me ONE fucking scenario in which Trump wins without NV. It's not happening. If he wins, it's going to be by the skin of his fucking teeth, and NV is absolutely imperative.
He isn't winning PA and he isn't winning VA. He needs OH, NC, FL, NH, AND NV all together to win. That's the only chance he has.

Also I don't know what the fuck CO is doing red in your map OP.
Things are looking really fucking shitty for Trump right now, it's basically hopeless.

>>96577720
>Texas
>red

>>96580510
>leaf
>not a shit post

>>96579000
nice get 000

>>96577720

I thought it was 70,000 yesterday? He has already begun to gain ground?

>>96580353
NV is 6 electoral votes.
Chill the fuck out you idiot.

>>96579000
fpbp, also checked

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>>96581710
6 electoral votes that he won't win without.
Do you not understand that in the absolute BEST CASE SCENARIO, this is the best he can do? It would take a fucking miracle at this point.

>>96577720
early voting stats can't legally be released before election day because they may affect the result.

you been played shill

>>96577720
spic vote is up like 103%

NV is gone

>>96577720
That doesn't tell you who they voted for and doesn't include independents

>>96580353
>>96582302
I'm going to bet you right now that Trump wins one or both of Pennsylvania or Michigan on Tuesday.

>>96582632
$100 bucks homie, screen this, won't happened.

Clinton blowout, /pol/ tears, and I support Trump and want him to win just being realistic.

>>96584860
This. The map I posted is so INCREDIBLY unlikely to happen. He needs literally ALL of those swing states, if even ONE of them goes blue, it's over. It's 90/10, realistically.

>>96580353
He's probably leading in Colorado. On Friday, he was only down 0.3% (6565 votes), and all last week Republicans mailed in ~6100 more votes per day than Democrats.

http://www.denverpost.com/2016/10/24/colorado-2016-ballot-tracker-a-look-at-mail-ballot-return-data/

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>>96582632
This I was in PA last week driving to Pittsburgh and seen trump shit all over even in the city. Not to mention Philly's public transport is fugged due to a strike and Heinz in shutting down and going to Mexico. Prior to that the ((polls)) were tied, Hes going to win PA.

>>96582302
>SC pink
>CT not dark blue

>>96580510
stop posting this in every thread

>>96582302
>Also I don't know what th
Ist Michigan a toss up now according to RCP? Why else is Hillary and king nigger and jay z over there?

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Trump cannot win, and could never have won.

>>96586135

Because ghettoheads don't vote without being prodded.

>>96577720
Chance? Absolutely.

That is literally all we know.

The skin of teeth argument is sensitive to voter fraud of course. This election cannot be won by the Democratic Party given the existence of the fraud, however, the risk is it being stolen.

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>>96577720
Latino wave incoming.

Drumpf has no chance.

>>96587886
>Florida voting Trump
kek

>>96587886
HAHAHAAHA FLORIDA BEING BLUE

>>96580353

Dudeweed state is dead even with demon/repub votes. Less than 1% split and more than 70% of the state votes through early voting. Trump has a lead among independents in almost every poll even if rigged.

Colorado is going red baby, it just doesn't seem like it should since its a liberal stronghold. But the liberals there, HATE hillary and feel the Bern.

>>96588475
>2012

>>96577720

Nevada is democrat land. that's just a fact. but to assume all those 50k democrats that voted are actually voting for Hillary Clinton is a massive fucking stretch.

I'm registered as an Independent, and I have never voted for a democrat once. I know people who are registered republicans that routinely vote for democrats.

sometimes when you're younger you register to vote one way and then just never really change it. Sometimes a moderate comes along, like Trump, and you decide to vote for him.

>>96586332
Don't these bitches have husbands who teach them about politics?

>>96585792
why is the graph out of date?

>>96586332
>march

>>96577720
>>96588936

My grandmother voted early, she is a registered Democrat and voted for Trump.

My mother voted early, she is a registered Democrat and voted for Hillary.

I'm voting on the 8th for Trump.

Based on this, Trump will win.

>>96577720
Help me out here /pol/

Real talk, what state has a better chance of going red if you had to pick just 1.


NC or Florida?

Give me some actual reasons, I don't want hopes but actual fucking reasons.

>>96580353
Trump is going to win Michigan.

>>96582302
Whoever made this map might be retarded.

>>96587886
Zero chance NC goes blue. It's nothing but Trump support from the mountains to the coast.

>>96589278
>sample is 2/3 women
>Trump still wins
Hillary btfo.

>>96584860
Honestly at this point I think anyone who thinks Trump doesn't win at least Pennsylvania is a complete fucking retard.

>>96577720
Every time this is posted, it ignores independents. Who is leading with (I)? Trump by 12 points. Trump is probably already in the lead.

>>96589515
Not at all, it's 100% believable.

>>96590103
He literally hasn't won a single poll. Elections don't work on feels anon.

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Choose any one of these grey states to win. Florida and Colorado are tough calls, but for reasons are going red this election.

>Colorado predominately votes early (>70%)
>Even split between d/r
>Trump leads among independents

>Florida has a miniscule lead
>Trump like romney will rock day of voting
>Latino turnout is undercut by lack of blacks
>some blackies have fled to trump

>>96589751
Spot-on. Chapel Hill is about the only area I've seen that's a solid Hillary holdout, but everywhere else is Trumptown.

>>96590307
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the PA polls have been heavily skewered towards Democrats and women, so it's not a shock to see Hillary leading in those polls.

>>96590338
>colorado
>red

>>96590307
Brexit. That is all.

>>96590488
Correct me if I'm wrong but the Pennsylvania electorate is heavily scewed towards Democrats and women.

Did we not learn from the unscewing the polls hype?

>>96590614

If you dont believe me, dispute me with facts. I presented mine.

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Did the basic red and blue. I believe he can flip MI but kept it blue as I have him winning PA and didn't want to make it overkill.

>>96589515
Wrong

>>96590488
Not just that, there are bus strikes and police presence at polling stations, which only needs to decrease democrat voter turnout by 3% for Trump to win.

>all democrats voted for hillary
cnn logic

>>96590338
Colorado, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Michigan cannot go red. Trump's only chance is NV + NH, which according to early voting in NV, might be tough. Hopefully the polls are right.

>>96590820
Forgot to mention CO possibly going red.

>>96590724
You are wrong. Red state, but Philadelphia fucks it up and they end up blue...it is similar to Illinois.

>>96577720
Wait.... That's it? the spic surge they talked about was 100%+? There is no way it's that close.

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This is what it's going to look like. Maybe he'll get Maine's second district, but it won't matter either way. Going to be a Clinton blowout.

>>96590908
Lack of public transit in one city in a huge state will not decrease democrat turnout by 3%.

>>96591001
The logic is that crossover between the two is about equivalent, which is what the polling has suggested.

>>96591291
hi nate

>>96577720
Holy fuck do I hate Clark and Washoe counties.

The entire rest of the state fucking hates their guts because they gave US Harry Reid.

t. A pissed Nevadan

>>96590724
Romney was an establishment shill that inspired literally nobody. Trump and him are polar opposites. Trying to skew polls to get Hillary above Obama turnout and shit like polling 60% women just makes them laughable. Polls have every incentive now to undercount Trump support. The pollsters are fucking donating to Clinton. ABC said he gained 10 points in a fucking week, lol, you're a fucking retard for believing their shit.

>>96591114

Why do you think Colorado can't go red? Please, dispute the actual facts of the matter. Everything suggests Colorado is going red. I laid out my argument why to you.

>>96581492
Sounds like it to me. Considering how Obama won Nevada by about 70k in 12 and Democrats dominate early voting, as well as the polls and Trump's independents numbers, I wouldn't at all be surprised to see Nevada red.

Media misrepresentation is all that it is.

>>96591291
Again, I don't know what drugs you kids are on, but Clinton is NOT winning NC.

>>96591148
Doesn't that still mean the state as a whole with Philly included has more Dems than Republicans? California is a red state too outside the cities for fuck sakes.

>>96591353
polling also suggests Trump has a 2% lead in NV

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Florida has a huge wave of pissed-off Hispanics voting. The hurricane delayed them a bit, but the drubbing is coming and nothing can stop it.

>>96582314
>early voting stats can't legally be released before election day because they may affect the result.

They aren't being released, goof.

this is polling based on number of ballots received from people registered to a party already before voting, not a count of individual votes.

so these projected results are assuming party line ballot returns.

>>96591617
You mean Republican Cubans? Good.

>>96590820
I mean does anything really matter if he gets PA?

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>>96577720
>Red Colorado
>Red Nevada

>>96591516
Easy way to triple your money in 3 days then, but you're not going to make that bet. You want him to win it but deep down you know it's hopeless.

>>96591335
Police presence at the polls will.

>>96591291
Yeah, unfortunately this is how it will probably play out. After a year-long movement, we're gonna end up with 4 years of the same. However, Trump's success in Iowa gives me hope for other states, such as Nevada. Many uneducated whites who voted for Obama (and are registered dems) may vote for Trump. This could explain Nevada's discrepancy with the polls and early voting.

>>96590307
polls dont mean shit anyway. You know how they poll right? they phone areas and ask them who they're voting for and then establish averages based on that, but if they want to, they can call areas where they already know the dominant political leaning in advance (certain communities/neighborhoods are historically always democrat or republican) so if they want to show Hillary winning they can poll areas known to be heavily Dem and paint whatever picture they like.

Why would they skew the polls? They might want to over represent Dems so that Republicans think it's not worth voting at all if they assume the Dems have it by a huge margin. Alternatively they might show Republicans leading by a slim margin to motivate more Dems to go out and vote because the margins so narrow that their votes will make a meaningful difference.

Polls are orchestrated to tell a story, they aren't a perfectly accurate representation of reality.

>>96591617
Florida Hispanics = Cubans =60% Republican

>>96577720
ALL Republicans are voting Trump.
SOME Democrats are voting Trump.
MOST Independents are voting Trump.

TRUMP WILL WIN.

Dems always do better in early votes.

And you bet your fucking ass the Reno shit last night helped him in a weird way.

>>96580353
Shouldnt you be sleeping? you have high school in the morning

>>96582302

>concern trolling

Nice try CTR

>>96580353
He may win VA. The only way he doesn't is if every democrat in Richmond/Henrico comes out to vote for Hillary. Trump has heavy support all up and down the state. I've called to survey people for my job.

>>96591617

Cubans are a large portion of florida hispanics. They are the republican diversity butter.

>>96591393
I think 538 has NC, FL, NV basically tied, but it doesn't take into account early voting. The prediction markets are showing Hillary in all 3.

>>96577720

>Michigan
>Blue

>>96580353
Doing door to door in Denver. I could have confused the place for South Dakota it was so red.

>>96577720
Trump will probably win cali he'll be the first since reagan

>>96591898
Only in South Florida. Most of the rest are Puerto Rican who are democrats like other northern transplants.

>>96591856
Sigh

Phone numbers are generated by a version of a random number generator. There is careful consideration on objectivity. This is statistics not feels.

>>96585792
And then count the independents

>>96591847
Thank you for correcting the record

>>96591856
>>96591898

Can you foreigners just fuck off, you know nothing about American politics and I'm genuinely bummed out now that Comey has exonerated Clinton. Before that I thought he could eek out a win, but the news on Monday is just gonna be people praising Clinton.

>>96592099

Hampton Uni, a BLACKED school has trump ahead in the state. It's leaning blue, but still well within play.

>>96592272
I just can't believe it, anon. How do you figure?

>>96592015
Post a comparison with 2012 numbers, if the number of Dems went up then Clinton is doing better, if it went down then Trump is doing better.

That's the logical way to measure it.

>>96592099
Fuck off dude, you retards are pissing me off too much. Has Trump ever lead a poll in Virginia? Tim Kaine was the GOVERNOR of Virginia.

>>96592134
Michigan hasn't been red since '88, and I doubt Trump can change that. Minority populations hold more voting power than auto workers and others who are dissatisfied with the Obama administration

>>96586451
Niggers need people to tell them what to think.

what evidence do we have that NH is going red? i want to believe, but i don't see how

illinois will be for johnson or trump

>>96592350
I am American you retard I live in WA, just chillin in Vancouver, BC right now.

>>96592310
if you believe its RNG you're retarded lol

>>96580510
>look over replies to op when entering thread
>see this state red shitpost, move on to see trumpfags trumpleing
>look back wondering what country is shitposting
>filled with patriotic pride

I love canada

>>96592605
Trump's been up 1-2 points in a few recent polls

>>96592334
I literally said that Trump still has a chance in Nevada despite early voting, and I'm CTR?

>>96592619
Not in a million years unless a glitch in the system results in Chicago's votes not getting counted

>>96590307
Because they're using 2012 turnout numbers and demographic lines. Trump has a record number of latino and black supporters according to opinion polls. If you think Hillary is going to energize the youth like Obama did, you're retarded. The entire theme of this election cycle was that Trump managed to steal blue-collar workers from the Dems.

The 50 dems to 35 repubs ratio they're using in PA is pants on head retarded.

>>96592565

>concern trolling

You're not fooling anyone faggot.
Trump supporters aren't apathetic cuckholds.

Enjoy getting lynched on the 9th you fucking kike.

>muh Kaine
>muh governor

He did a shit job and put the state into debt.
Get bent moron.

>>96592565

Hampton university just released one with him having a 3% lead after a 12% lead for clinton last month. Polls are stupid, but Virginias in play.

>>96592619
Yeah, if all of Chicago mysteriously disappeared or some shit

>>96592491
he wont win every state but i think he's got cali because
1. he's famous that's the only reson they went reagan
2. they're stupid enough to use that logic they've proven it.
3. hillary stands against what cali stands for he's voted for war and aggainst gay marriage lots of pent up rage aggainst her.

>>96590623
I like how you say brexit like it was a completely for remain. We had polls pointing towards a leave result. Trump hasn't won a single fuckin poll in PA in the last month.

>>96592350
I am an American, you ass. I was born in the Midwest, my father was military, and I lived in 8 fucking states.

>>96592903
>Trump has a record number of latino and black supporters according to opinion polls.

I'll stop you right there, it's a record low.

>>96592903
They aren't using 2012 turnout, I know the polls very well. If they were using 2012 turnout, he would be doing worse, but they have decreased the black share of the electorate (which is accurate). Trump getting a record number of latino and black supporters is laughable. I'm not even saying he can't win, but if he wins, it will be because white people turn out higher than expected.

>>96592350
>just Monday

Dude the media is going to be shiting on trump for being a loser for weeks just to try and get him to melt down go fucking crazy and make you all look like idiots for voting for him and talking about how great Clinton did

I'm so excited for you tears

>>96593013
chicago will have killed themselves before election day comes
>>96592880

I find it more than a little bit fucked up how likely it is that Hillary will win given the fuck-huge amount of dirt that has come out about her.

Getting a child trafficker off scott free
Taking bribe money from foreign powers
Shutting down confirmed rape victims

She is literally doing absolutely 100% of the things lib-shits fight against and they are flocking to her because she has a blue backing instead of a red backing.

Well, they are flocking to her because she doesn't say mean things and speech being bad is a bigger flaw to them than literal murder and human trafficking apparently.

I kind of want her to win at this point. I want it all to burn. Get in a nuke war with Russia Hill-dawg, please rape my country with nukes, Putin. The places hit will big major cities with loads of nigs and libs and we will be able to rebuild something from the ashes and the spic slaughter while it is going on will be epic.

>>96593088
There's no way that Cali will turn red for Trump. People there will vote for any blue candidate, regardless if they're as shitty as Hillary

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>>96592781
intradesting, if the NH polls are right, i honest to god see this as the most likely outcome

>>96592829
"I love the poorly educated"

>>96593300

Someone in his staff, the absolute madman, took away his twitter.

>>96593088
Are you fucking retarded

>>96590249
>SC is pink
>CT is light blue
>Oregon is light blue

>>96593088
>he thinks reagan won california because he was famous
You should probably check the list of governors california had. It give you clue on the real reason for his win

>>96592565
It's just delusional Trumptards, anon.

Trump is cooked.

>>96593347
>I find it more than a little bit fucked up how likely it is that Hillary will win given the fuck-huge amount of dirt that has come out about her.

No shit dude why do you think we're all here

>>96593402
then why did they vote reagan?

>>96593136
most brexit polls especially the earlier ones put the idea of an exit at almost zero, it was only the 11th hour ones that started to show a possibility, his point is valid.

>>96593188
you've been reading too much leddit and watching too much hillary media. Trump has record high number of black and latinos voting republican

>>96593347
they're flocking to her cause trump is a fucking mess

she has such high unfavorable rates for a reason. they're left with no choice but to sacrifice their vote for her

>>96592961
>He did a shit job and put the state into debt.
Get bent moron.

Why do people do this? I'm not arguing that Kaine is a good person, I'm arguing that he has high approval ratings in Virginia. Whether that is deserved or not is irrelevant. It is obvious that he is helping her a lot in Virginia, just look at the polls. Trump doesn't need Virginia to win, that's why he has focused more on Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

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>>96589278

>>96593297
>Trump getting a record number of latino and black supporters is laughable
>Donald Trump is on track to double Gov. Mitt Romney’s support among African-American voters, according to a series of state polls.
>On Friday, a poll of 506 Pennsylvania voters by Harper Polling showed Trump has the support of 18.46 percent of African-Americans. That’s 12.5 points more than Romney’s share of the national vote in 2012, and if it proves true during the ballot, that 18.46 percent African-American support translates into 2 point shift towards Trump. The poll also said another 4.6 percent were undecided.
http://harperpolling.com/docs/default-source/default-document-library/16-10-pa-statewide-poll-crosstabs.pdf?sfvrsn=0

>>96593760
No, I've been looking at too much actual data rather than /pol/ feels.

>>96593468
education doesn't have much relation to intelligence
if anything, the longer you stay in university, the more marxist programming you've been downloaded with

you should only go to university if you plan on being a surgeon, lawyer, or you're a massive faggot and want to suck off the academic tit

the poorly educated are more lovable

>>96580353
Shameless concern shill. Die.

>>96593656
Liberalism wasn't as ingrained in the culture, and Reagan was an all around more likable person. Reagan's all-American persona held widespread appeal in 1980, but it simply doesn't have that kind of pull today. He was also a Hollywood actor and governor of California, and Trump is neither of those things.

>>96593569
why do you think he got there in the first place? same for arnold both RED, clearly the'll vte red if they're famous why else would they elect a RED governor if they are so set on a BLUE president a governor is more important for you day to day than a president.

>>96591441
I sometimes feel like the polls being rigged by heavily oversampling democrats and women may have the opposite effect of what the pollsters want.

I hope it lures the dems into a false sense of security and suppresses turnout. Whereas Trump supporters come out strong because we aren't having that shit.

Thoughts on this theory?

Considering polling between states uses the same methodology and in previous elections have been highly correlated, if Hillary wins Nevada it means either the polls were dead accurate or biased against her. Therefore it's almost impossible that the polls are biased against Donald by five points in Michigan or Pennsylvania.

If Donald loses Nevada he's lost the election.

>>96593405
If this happened it would be 270-268 because Maine's one split vote would go to Trump

>>96593838

Or they could vote for Gary Johnson enmass and really send a message of 'fuck you and your twisted ass candidates' to both parties.

They won't do that though because of instead of voting for the person they want they are trying to make sure someone else doesn't win.

Libs are fucking cowards.

>>96593998
trump has a lot of hollywood credit though.

>>96593300
Yeah fuck this, I really wanted to see the liberals melt down (Samantha Bee types) on TV, Twitter, and everywhere else, but I don't think it's gonna happen. Ironically, the only time the polls were wrong was 2000: the polls had Bush up in the popular vote, but Gore actually won it. But Bush still won the election. Which suggests that dems are more likely to outperform.

>>96580353
>isn't winning PA
>polls show him doing well in pittburgh
>Philadelphia bus drivers on strike
>no early voting
You are in for a shock

>>96594227
Having Hollywood credit isn't equitable to being a likable star and governor. I'm sorry to burst your bubble, but Cali's staying blue

Dont know how this is possible, i live in las vegas and havent seen one fucking hillary bumper sticker, sign, anything. ON the contrary every single day i see at least 10 if not more trump supporters, a lot of them minority, btw.

>>96594071
The Trumpling rhetoric that the polls are rigged against him makes no sense. Why would Clinton want her voters to feel complacent? Politicians always pretend the race it tighter than it is.

>>96593998
liberals are a disease

>>96594382
i dont think so i think cali has high potential to swing red

>>96591449
He has no argument. He is either CTR or an actual Clinton supporter

>>96582632
From what I've seen driving through most of Michigan, they stand with Trump. The only challenge would be Detroit.

>>96593839

>53% approval is high

wew lad. I didn't know the bar was that low.

>>96594538
You're certainly entitled to your own opinion, but I think California's going to stay blue. There's nothing solid to indicate even a possibility for a Trump victory there

>>96593347
I feel the same. If Trump doesn't win I'll watch the world burn and piss on their graves.

>>96591449
>>96594642
Because polls. You may not like them, but they are the single greatest predictor of elections.

>>96591449
RCP has clinton up 1.8 points, 538 gives her a 74% chance of winning.

>>96594743
Yeah, the bar for politicians is really fucking low. Congress's approval rating is 11% for fuck's sake

>>96594898
So trump has nevada?

>>96594399
Morale attacks are an intrinsic part of psychological warfare. If the Japanese kept fighting after we dropped the second bomb, the war would have gone on, because we only had two.

>>96591743
>actually wants to troll Trump supporters
>hes with her
>cuck

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>>96594743
53% is good in this age of polarization. And Clinton has the demographic switch going for her in Virginia. Just look at pic related.

>>96592310
You're wrong there. I do this for a living.

>>96591114
sorry to burst your bubble but trump has overwelming support here in MI i had to drive passed a Trump rally here recently he also presented a speech recently right after Ford said it was outsourcing and presented an argument as to why they wont so he's won over a large portion of the unions if not split that vote that was once hard core blue. MI has high potential to be red this year after Ford claimed to be outsourcing to mexico.

>>96595030
I think he can win it. In Nevada, Trump is getting a higher share of Democrats than he is in other states. Similar to Iowa, which Obama won easily in 2008 and 2012.

>>96592429
You're correct. I can only speak for the calls on my list but I can say that the people I talk to support Trump 2 to 1

>>96595270
Then why isn't he winning any polls there? My personal rule is Trump can only win states that he has actually LED polls in.

>>96592121
Yea cause betting markets have so correct this year. Even your boy nate bronze is preparing for it

how are the maine (((polls))) looking lads, can he split the vote?

>>96589311
florida, nc is full of tyrones

>>96592565
Kaine is hated here. I've told you I do this for a living. I know the way the polls here are sampled. UNI polls generally have him ahead, where MSM polls have him losing.

I'm a lady, not a dude.

>>96595044
That comparison only makes sense if they were expecting Donald to pull out due to poor polling.

>>96595270
"I'm sorry to burst your bubble but ALL THE POLLS ARE OUT BY FIVE POINTS DUE TO MY ANECDOTAL EVIDENCE"

>>96595761
>I'm a lady

Ok, now I know you're a fraud.

>>96595590
idk if its normal but whenever they do polls here the harass you until you say the blue candidate
> polls over the phone the same poll will call repeatedly until you say the blue candidate then when you do they stop calling
> anytime they've come to the door(which has only happened once in my life) they wont write down what you say with out throughly "informing" you of all the reasons the blue candidate is better

>>96595977
see
>>96596026

>>96596026
Even if that's true, Obama still outperformed the polls in 2012.

>>96593088
I would love to see this, but I don't think so. So many Hollywood libs are against him and the sheep take their idols words for law.

>>96595977
KEK
>ANECDOTAL
>EVIDENCE

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>>96577720
>>96580353
There is a path without it

>>96593188
It's higher than what Romney had.

>>96595776
No, it doesn't need to be that specific, it's just another example of morale attack

>>96577720
Is he really going to win North Carolina?

>>96596227
yes Obama did and Obama had oer whelming support i saw Obama hope bumper stickers ike crazy now i see Trump posters like i saw Obama stuff

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the most important hurdle is florida.

>>96593297
We absolutely use 2012 as a demographic. It's necessary for scientific polling data

>>96596227
Obama was the passion candidate just as trump is now

>>96596357
If PA goes red there's a significant polling error which means that NH will go red too.

Errors are generally correlated.

>>96580353
screencapped

TRUMP has far more support than hillary here in MI

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>>96593760
>brexit
If you took a single poll that showed remain ahead, yes. Pic related.

>>96596681
this is very true. Regardless of whether you support Trump or Hillary I don't think a single person can claim that Hillary is more passionate or has higher energy than Trump. She has been a slow performer all the way through this election cycle.

>>96591634
you're assuming a lot of Democrats or Hispanics aren't voting for Trump. Quite a few are.

Remember: Hillary will lose 1 vote from DC

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/electoral-college-voter-not-voting-clinton_us_581d145ae4b0d9ce6fbc3941

>>96596681
Who the fuck is passionate for Trump? Do you guys actually think Trump's base is going to win him the election? If he wins (I still think he can win) it will be because of reluctant republicans voting straight ballot.

>>96580353
I think Trump is going to flip a midwest state other than iowa and ohio (I include pennsylvania in this category).

But even if he doesn't, the meme magic of Trump winning in Nevada thanks to increased support from Latinos will be just perfect and perhaps the result we should be hoping for as a final FU to the establishment.

>>96597010
Faithless electors are not relevant. We aren't a banana republic, if the vote ends up 270-268, there's no way an elector goes faithless.

>>96596026
>>96596143

>my anecdotal evidence is validated by further anecdotal evidence

Yet the polls have done a remarkable job in previous elections. This year will likely be a tighter contest than 2012, but anyone who denies that Clinton is the favourite to win is delusional.

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>>96597022
You're not even trying to be subtle with your shilling anymore.

TRUMP HAS THE MEME MAGIC ON HIS SIDE THERE FOR HE WILL WIN ALL BUT HAWAII AND COLORADO!!!

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>>96597010
That's washington state, not DC. It's more justifiable because Washington's twelve votes going all democrat is not fair anyway.

>>96597022
>hurr durr
Yeah because having the largest rallies in American history means nothing

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>>96579000
That's because it's easier to mail in dead people's ballots

>>96596686
true.

E1 is just showing that NV and NH become irrelevant at that point.

>>96597342
>Yet the polls have done a remarkable job in previous elections

literally the last major election (2014 primaries) was a complete blowout for all polls

neck yourself

>>96597342
TRUMP willl win michigan i have yet to even meet enough hillary supporters to equate 1 hillary supporter for 100 Trump supporters

>>96580353
Hey ctr faggot, the internal polls show him with a comfy lead at 266 electoral votes. Nevada included. its basically OP's map but with maine going red and colorado a toss up

>>96594399
I never said the dems bought in to the polls being rigged. I said the oversampling may lure them into a false sense of security.

Comprehension game fail.

>>96577720
>Apparently Democrats lead against him by 42,000

Bear in mind that Trump had a powerful appeal to the "forgotten Democrats." In perma-cucked nations like Canada, this is the toughest and dangerous political class of voters because they are forced to swallow all the PC bullshit and have to watch their economies and countries grow weaker and more pathetic, their taxes and cost of living rise, their career prospects and opportunities dwindle and evaporate, etc.

Trump appealed to these people strongly in the primaries. The Clinton camp has aimed to use typical weaponized PC warfare to try to shame and confuse these voters into voting against their interest. Depending on how successful they have been, Democrat votes are a wildcard especially when turnout is higher than 2012.

Michael Moore ironically hit the nail on the head of this voting class. Nobody I think is quite sure just how many of these will break rank and vote for their interests in the Pres. election.

Clinton and Obama have been hyper-reactionary this month. You have seen Clinton striving hard to emulate and generate Trump-like enthusiasm. You have seen Obama's desperation and even outright fear: this means Trump strategy and appeal has them very worried. The fact they are very much reacting means Trump is determining the chess game.

>>96597380
>>96597465

Are you guys for real? Do you just ignore math now? The polls still show that Trump has a path to victory, just not in the way you guys describe. America is a diverse country, even if his base had a 100% turnout, he could not win without support from independents.

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>>96577720
He won't

>>96590307
Implying elections run on polls

>>96582302
take the cock out of your ass for once

>>96594898
Yet every poll shows a different outcome.

>>96596686
There has been alot of discussion of the shy trump voter, but the thing is polling the past 2 months there has actually been pretty good for him. Pittburgh is a good example of this. D's have only one stronghold at this moment and if blacks don't come out they are fucked.

>>96585821
>>96582632

PA will save the union and shock the world.

Besides my buddy Abu Hajaar is a big Trump guy and he sayed he was going to Ally Akbar SEPTA if they run on Election Day.

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>>96597010
>will only face a $1000

lmao what? i would do that any day of the week. hell, you'll probably save more than $1000 over the next four years if you vote trump

>>96587886
>latino
cubans hate mexicans dipshit, florida is red

>>96597633
Probability wise, you live near people that vote like you. I have never met another Trump supporter other than my dad where I live, but at least 40% of my state will still vote for Trump (California). Because Republicans live in Orange County and the Central Valley, and I live in the Silicon Valley.

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>>96577720
This map makes me fucking rage so god damn hard.

NUKE THE BAY AREA

NUKE IT

>>96597822
>hillary supporter
>uses Pepe

hillary faggots shouldnt be aloud to use pepe's

>>96595991
Would you like proof, sir?

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STOP MICRO-ANALYZING THE (((POLLS))) AND JUST GO VOTE YOU FUCKING AMERICANS ANALYZING POLLS DOES NOTHING TO HELP

IGNORE POLLS THAT HAVE TRUMP WINNING
IGNORE POLLS THAT HAVE TRUMP LOSING

NO MATTER WHAT STATE YOU'RE IN GO AND VOTE FOR TRUMP AND BRING AS MANY PEOPLE OUT WITH YOU TO VOTE TRUMP AS YOU POSSIBLY CAN

RED-PILL AS MANY NORMIES AND TRY TO GET THEM OVER TO OUR SIDE AS YOU POSSIBLY CAN

I DON'T WANT TO HAVE A /POL/ MEET UP IRL IN SYRIA WITH YOU FAGGOTS GO VOTE TRUMP SO I CAN SHITPOST

REEEEEEEEEE

>>96597530
You mean the election which Nate Silver called precisely? Who this election gives New Hampshire to Clinton (with a 2/3 chance), who is also considered to be one of the most generous pundits to trump?

>>96577720
>anywhere worth going in the usa is democratic
really makes you think

>>96597818
Independents are a huge part of his highly passionate base. Where have you been the last year and a half?

>>96597891
What are you talking about, Clinton is leading in the RCP average. How do you guys feel so comfortable with blatantly lying?

>>96598190
I would love proof.

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>>96598219

but he didnt? are you even trying retard

>>96598275
I meant undecideds.

>>96577720
yes trump can win
2/3 of votes are in
week one dem had 44% to 36% rep to 19% ind
week two dem lead shrunk to 40% to 36 to 22%
final week including nov 8 will end up at
rep and dem even and ind at 24%
so there are 2 factors to consider: 93% of dems actually voted for Clinton while 97% of rep vote for trump... the final result will be about 20000
vote advantage for Clinton over Trump.
then, the independents come in, with about 220000 votes in total. about 10% will be wasted on third parties so 200,000 will be voting for main candidates... Trump has advantage with ind.
anything over 10% gap for trump over Hillary will give Trump the victory. it could be very close.

>>96581710
He needs them though
Even the 4 in New Hampshire are crucial. He has to nail NV and NH to at least tie and take the game to OT

Colorado is 'dude weed', they think Trump is going to take away their drugs. He has to have NV

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Democrats winning is good for the economy

>>96597530
>>96598219

I just realised you said primaries, my bad. I'm not knowledgable enough about them, but given a the mix of caucusing and polling it's not hard understand why they screw it up.

Does change the fact that presidential elections are predicted with relatively high accuracy every time.

>>96598114
hillary is facing a turnout rate that will equate in her recieving 30-40% of the vote in MI Trump will easily face 50-60% in the election

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>>96598202
>not staying up late, shooting the shit with your bros arguing about possible outcomes

there's no one left to redpill ausboy. everyone has made up their minds at this point. all that's left to do is speculate

>>96598466
but trump said he was gonna make jobs and that hillary couldn't :(

>>96597342
delusional is just word stupid people give to the people who are smart enough to know how things really are

>>96598466
Trump isn't your average republican, he only thinks about business
Hillary is out of her depth when it comes to money

>>96584860
>i support trump

>but clinton will win and pol will be butthurt XD

>>96598466
did the obama leaf get an israeli vpn

>>96598466
Now factor in the debt

>>96598532
I hope you're wrong anon, there has to be more people we can red-pill

When does voting end?

>>96598466
say that to Ford outsourcing jobs and WWIII that will be started by hillary's no fly zone war never helps the economy unless your only selling to the countries involved and you never send a troop

>>96598441
>93% of dems actually voted for Clinton while 97% of rep vote for trump
Citation needed.

>>96590393
I was in waynesville like a month ago. The only democrats I saw were several old hags and a Michael Moore clone running the DNC booth at a local festival. Unsurprisingly they were at the ass end of the place and no one talked to them.

And I'm from Florida. This state is so red my erection hurts. Hilldog held a "huge" rally a few days ago in one of our largest counties and didn't even get 1000 people. As a young deluded highschooler raised on anti-bush punk rock I saw obama speak to a crowd of 40,000 at the bank atlantic center. The kind of crowd Trump is getting down here
>MAGA

>>96598466
>drumpfkins will defend this

>>96598506
Trump getting 60% in Michigan

Ahhh YEEEEEEEEEEE

>>96598281
IBD/TPP had her losing the other day. RCP is not the only poll out there. Many University polls have Trump ahead state by state.

American Straw Poll had Trump ahead.

The margins are different for every national poll. How much evidence do you need?

Nevada is to liberal.

TRUMP HAS THE WILL OF THE MEMES ON HIS SIDE!!!

>>96598981
>muh ww3
do you richboycucks even listen to yourselves?

>>96580353
Michigan. It all ends in Detroit.

>>96599186
>>96599186
RCP is not a poll. RCP is an average of every poll.

It's over for Trump.

He's only getting 19% of the Latino vote.

How did he fuck this up so bad? He could have won back the Latinos just like Bush did in 2000 and 2004. Instead he went full retard. I get not going for the blacks, jews, or asians because they would never vote for him. But why alienate the spics?

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>>96577720
We couldn't do it boys.

>>96599404
Dial it back there jeb

>>96598466
Because over taxing and redistribution of wealth is never bad for the economy right? That tap never runs out.

Over taxing and over regulating businesses never ends badly. (i.e. all of the factories closing and moving)

>>96599276
say the cuck from britain
>>96599317
my god detroit is a shit hole you can trust me on that

>>96599455
>PA
>Blue
>ohio, florida and NC somehow swing states

>>96598959
most will have voted within the next 30 hours

>>96599574
you're the one shilling for a multi-millionaire tax fraud to have more power and money, for free

>>96598466
>Democrats winning is good for the economy

Thank you for illustrating the difference between statistics and reality lol.

Even assuming those charts are accurate - and I doubt it - according to it average American purchasing power and wealth should be vastly, vastly superior to previous generations, and they manifestly are not. The middle class should be enormous and stronger than ever. It is not. How do you explain this?

So there is something wrong with the method.

Moreover, the concentration of wealth to useless people is in fact bad for the economy. They do not produce. Useless people monopolizing wealth is bad for the whole world economy.

>>96599535
>(i.e. all of the factories closing and moving)

They could remove all the regulations and taxes and factories would still move overseas because over there employees cost $0.30 an hour.

>>96599041
You have no way of knowing who they voted for. All you know is what they were registered as and how many of them voted. Don't lie shill.

>>96592099
He just had the most high energy rally of all time in Virginia at midnight. 8,000 people outside the event who couldn't get in. It's going RED.

>>96598959
>>96599654

oops, fucked that up, within the next 42 hours

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>>96599691
> you're the one shilling for a multi-millionaire tax fraud to have more power and money, for free

>>96599524

I'm not wrong.

If Trump had chosen a hispanic VP candidate he would win.

>>96599691
I support trump on that
Why?
im against all taxes truth be told im a libertarian but i support trump

>>96599900
Yup natural conservatives aye jeb? How do you feel about your wifes son voting for trump?

>>96599524
If Trump hadn't run, we could have gotten president Jeb. Which would've been kinda gay, but better than Clinton. But if Trump actually manages to win, it will be glorious. Liberals will be melting down, illegals will chimp out. Even though my brain doesn't see Trump winning, my heart does. I feel like this whole election has been about Trump, and once you frame it that way, you're guaranteed to win. But my brain says Madam President.

>>96600000
CHECKED

>>96599404
Because he had to be hard on illegal immigration since its a major issue. Spics think they should be able to migrate illegally wherever they want and obtain benefits. They are a huge part of the problem.

Clinton is winning the early voting in a landslide. pol is imploding!!

>>96600000
>when the quints are wasted

>>96597822
Top kek is that even a pepe? What kind of mongoloid face is that

Early voting doesn't mean shit

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>>96597902
>D's have only one stronghold at this moment and if blacks don't come out they are fucked.

Christmas came early.

>Philedelphia Transit Strike underway

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-transit-strike-in-philly-could-lower-turnout-among-black-and-poor-voters/

>>96599816
Did you reply to the wrong guy?

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>>96599900
His vp pick made picking up traditionally red states a breeze and Clinton alienated enough blue states to make this election a clown fiesta.

>>96599878
compared to trumps 3.7 billion

ah yes, very equivalent

>>96599648
It's been blue since 92 and not only that the polls give blue a win.

>>96599691
It's not tax fraud. He used the same legal loophole that Clinton herself used.

>>96600127
What? She is down in litterally every state besides nevada from 2012

Hell in FL alone I believe she is down 60-70% from the last election

>>96600000
WIFES SON

>>96599455
>>96599648
desu, he's probably going to lose. The fact that early voting in Florida and Nevada has Clinton slightly ahead suggests polling is either accurate or skewed slightly against Hilary, therefore Donald's chances in New Hampshire are looking increasingly thin.

>>96599878
Some people hate both of them imagine that

>>96600000
JEB BTFO

>>96599832
I agree. I live in VA.

>>96600000

What a waste of quints. Don't be butthurt because your candidate will lose because of VP choosing 101: Choose a VP that is NOT you.

Obama chose an old white guy. Hillary chose a white man. Kennedy chose a southern Baptist. Trump chose another old white guy.

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>>96600000
Jeb BTFO one last time.

>>96600315
gonna need a public source on that so i can compare it to hillary's tax returns

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>>96594071
This is why Michael Moore and bill maher have been in full meltdown mode. They've reached anger/bargaining on the stages of acceptance regarding the inauguration of our GodEmperor while the rest of media is still in denial. Essentially Dilbert 9months ago but with a leftist hand ringing spin.

They know they're fucked and are begging berniebros to vote for the demilitch. On November 9th they'll hit depression and some time after we have border security, states rights weed, and better domestic jobs they'll begrudgingly reach "acceptance"

>>96600321
He will likely lose, but he can win New Hampshire. It is nearly 100% white, he is leading there, there is no early voting there, and he won the primary there. I wish he was there instead of fucking around in Minnesota and Virginia.

>>96600253

He was gonna win those red states anyway. And last I checked Trump hasn't penetrated 1 blue firewall state yet in any major polls.

>>96600321
> I have no idea what I am talking about
>obama won florida by 70k
>won combined early voting with over 100k
>hillary has a early voting lead of 30k that will shrink because be bring in their absent ballots on election day
>in person was over yesterday
She already lost the state dude. Do some research before you give your shitty opinions next time

>>96599922
you're not a libertarian in any sense of the word if you support trump

he is an authoritarian

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>>96600000

checked, keked, and guaced

so the results in the east come first right? does that mean if we know early that NH is blue trump is pretty much done for? even with nevada you cant win without new hampshire unless you do the near impossible and flip a traditionally blue state

>>96600490
Dodging the question jeb

>>96600592
Google it. I'm not your personal librarian.

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>>96584860

>>96596357
why is florida always red? i mean, you know it's gonna be blue, right?

>>96600874
oh wait he hasn't released his tax returns has he

might be because he's hiding his massive tax fraud from the american people

>>96600834

Your questions were meme bullshit. My points are still valid. When Trump loses you will look back and ask "why"? And all you have to do is look at my post.

>>96582302
Yup, this is the best case scenario and he still might lose electoral votes

>>96600923
See>>96600734
It's highly unlikely it will go blue. If they are down by 70% from last election in early voting election day voting will be a wash

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>>96587886
>Latinos
>Voting Clinton

>>96593188
oops...
see
>>96601137

>>96597519
heh, i told my wife a variation of this joke today. small world

>>96600923
its not going to happen.

if it doesn't, then Trump loses.

Either way I mapped only the victory outcomes, not the losing outcomes.

>>96599404
>How did he fuck this up so bad? He could have won back the Latinos just like Bush did in 2000 and 2004. Instead he went full retard. I get not going for the blacks, jews, or asians because they would never vote for him. But why alienate the spics?

His appeal is to people who are not satisfied with America's performance overall. He's especially popular amongst working class people whose interests he appeals to.

>>96600997
I will just direct you to four years in the future when the GOP nominates a gender fluid muslim latino and still loses because they are a pretty that displaced their voters since the 80's

>>96600022
So...it's a question of faith. Have faith that Donald J Trump will win, lads. Have faith in every energy that is the opposite of the enemy we fight. Though our enemies supporters do not know it, we fight not just for us. We fight for there to be a future worth living in for everyone.

>>96600490
And Bill Clinton chose a southern white guy

>>96600923
florida is where all old white people go after they retire. trump really tugged on their heartstrings with the whole "make america great AGAIN" spiel. early ballots showed a large surge in white voters, put two and two together my pasta pal

>>96601317
A party* not a pretty

>>96600973
He doesn't need to release them, he released a financial disclosure that explains way more than a tax return ever would.

He admitted to using the deduction for losing that much money. Hillary deducted a lot too.

The problem with your statement is that the loophole wasn't fraud, it was very legal. He has been audited by the IRS numerous times, as most wealthy people are.

If the IRS didn't find a problem, you can STFU because you don't know what you're talking about. Thanks.

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>>96592305
>Only in South Florida
OH YOU MEAN WHERE THERE ARE HISPANICS

south florida isn't full of beaners like the west coast. Cubans have wet foot dry foot citizenship, the islanders have a bunch of work programs, and the south Americans who are here are here LEGALLY from countries completely disjointed from paco and co. Trying to skip the border.

You democrats are so fucking racist thinking all Hispanics are Mexicans. I interact with Hispanics all day at work and not a damn one of them is from Mexico or central America.

>>96601273
Hillary already lost Florida.

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>>96600000
> wifes son
>racist

>>96599041
http://heavy.com/news/2016/11/nevada-early-voting-update-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-winning-losing-turnout-november-3-republicans-democrats/

"A recent CNN/ORC poll found that 93 percent of Nevada Democrats plan to vote for Hillary Clinton, and 96 percent of Nevada Republicans plan to vote for Donald Trump."
not exact science, but Trump republicans are more loyal, and democrats are more willing to defect... numbers could be more dramatic than reported if you factor the "desirability bias" into the poll... even with a 93% to 96% retention,
42,000 dem advantage over rep translates to about 30,000 advantage for Clinton over Trump
With lead shrinking in final week, final lead will be about 20,000.

here, do the math yourself:
http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4555
http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4543