Trump is losing Arizona now

And why should i trust nate zinc's ''now'' cast?

>>91878271
>Nate Smegma

>Nate Scrap Metal

File: image.jpg (239KB, 690x2622px) Image search: [Google]

239KB, 690x2622px

>T-t-Trump can't win said the increasingly nervous man for the 15th time today

>>91878271
Even RCP shows trump +4 in Iowa
Fuck off

>Nate Pewter

>>91878598
Because he called the last 2 presidential elections right except for one state ?

Is that good enough ?

>>91878271

Never underestimate the stupidity of a trumptard.

File: 1475672289528.jpg (145KB, 601x600px) Image search: [Google]

145KB, 601x600px

>>91878680
>>91878810
>>91878949
>if I say Nate Silver's name wrong enough and cling to the belief in LA Times, maybe memes can make Trump president!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

>>91878826
>Hillary will be indited for her emails any day now said increasingly nervous fag for the 15th time today!

>>91878271
do not count your chickens before they hatch, the threat of Drumpf has not yet passed.

>>91879188
Thank you for correcting the record

File: silverJUST.png (488KB, 800x600px) Image search: [Google]

488KB, 800x600px

>>91878271
>Nate ((Copper))

File: 61075d1a14475564d26d2b66e5a09d46.jpg (55KB, 564x752px)

55KB, 564x752px

>>91879464
>Thank you for correcting the record

Trumpkiddies got nothing left.

>>91879552
But Trump did have a ceiling in the GOP. He didn't win over 50% of the GOP primary voters, and only won because there was 16 fucking candidates running.

>>91878951
not really, no

File: image.jpg (151KB, 856x488px) Image search: [Google]

151KB, 856x488px

>>91879574

>>91879658
>16 candidates
>managed to snatch up 45% of the primary votes (almost 50%)

That's impressive you fucking moron

>>91879740
Like I said, Trumpniggers got nothing left. It's not just five thirty eight showing him losing. It's every major polling source showing him losing, and badly.

>>91879947
>That's impressive you fucking moron

It really isn't when you are running against Jeb and Cruz.

>>91880150
>trying this hard

>>91880181
were you not following the election a year ago?

>>91880181
and guess who is the jeb of the democrats? H R C

>>91878271

>(((polls)))

>>91880460
>and guess who is the jeb of the democrats? H R C

But that implies she will lose, which she won't.

File: 1380320831838.jpg (21KB, 463x421px) Image search: [Google]

21KB, 463x421px

>>91878271
>some anon on /b/ says every polling company would oversample Democrats after the first debate in order to create a narrative where Trump can't win
>think its bullshit, because lol 4chan
>check the numbers
>some polls oversample Democrats by 20%

I'm getting tired of (((media))) being so predictably corrupt.

>>91880805
>some polls oversample Democrats by 20%

You know there are more Democrats in the US than Republicans right?

>>91880204
He's right though, Trump is losing, and hard

>>91880889
You know there are more Independents than Republicans or Democrats, right?

Independents are heavily undersampled and also mostly in favor of Trump

then again, you're the shill that made this thread >>91878448 so I don't know why I'm even arguing with you

>>91880889
Yes, I forgot how polls which were nominally even until they just... suddenly weren't anymore... was because Democrats registered 50 million people in the past month.

>>91878271
Your days are numbered CTR

https://beta.fec.gov/data/disbursements/?two_year_transaction_period=2016&disbursement_purpose_categories=other&committee_id=C00578997&min_date=01-01-2015&max_date=08-05-2016

http://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/318/201607159020655318/201607159020655318.pdf#navpanes=0

>>91880889
those polls are using 2012 dem numbers, so you have to force yourself to believe that hillary will get the same number of dems that obama did, that no one has changed their mind, or changed their party or will stay home. and most are even OVERSAMPLING 2012

look at the numbers of a poll , dont just blindly trust everything you see on 538 or some other liberal place

>>91881145
Obama lost the independent vote in 2012 anon. I don't see what your point is.

>>91881287
for every liberal claim .......there is a counter claim

lol @ 50 million

http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/10/06/trump-new-voter-registration-soars-2-million-door-knocks-in-a-week-and-a-half/

>>91881436
>look at the numbers of a poll , dont just blindly trust everything you see on 538 or some other liberal place

Your a fucking homofaggot who watches Fox News.

How did you feel watching Karl Rove in 2012 watching the Ohio results in real time?

>>91881559
>breitbart.com

You people live in a right wing echo chamber/safe space. Did I TRIGGER you?

>>91881440
>voter registration is the same as it was in 2012

yeah ok bud

>>91879464

>this is literally the only argument trumptards have

You monkeys make the romney campaign look competent.

>>91881614
>>91881662
what do you consider a reliable, unbiased and nonpartisan media source?

File: hillarypepe3.jpg (195KB, 1058x390px) Image search: [Google]

195KB, 1058x390px

>>91878826
A lot of Trumpsters believe, inaccurately, that the 538 forecast model (an algorithm) is the same as Nate Silver's personal punditry (one dude's opinions). Nate was wrong when he personally predicted Trump didn't win. The 538 forecast model, on the other hand, was not applied during the primaries, and over the course of the last two presidential elections, it's been accurate something like 99% of the time.

Deny this if you want Trumpsters, that's fine! Tell yourself what you need to in order to get through these next few weeks. Besides, the higher you raise your own hopes of a Trump victory, the happier I'll be when he loses in November. And he will lose in November.

I predict Trump will make a comeback in the polls in the next few weeks and it will be very close going into election day.

>>91880912
>using proxies to autoquote yourself
Sad!

>>91878271
>Nate Nickel

>>91882171
They're in denial and we have to deal with their petulant anger and accusations that Hillary is a war hawk and she'll start ww3 and cultural marxism has taken over and all their tired old talking points mostly distributed by Putin's paid shitposting army.

>>91882171
my model for the past 30 years has been accurate for 100% of the time and you think something right for two dealing with the same person holds a candle to it?

>>91882171
how do you explain LA Times being accurate in 2012?

>>91882480
no, we are waiting for Nick Silver to pull of the HOLY TRINITY OF POLL FAILS

got trump primary wrong
got brexit wrong
got trumps presidency wrong

>>91882587
Their initial sample in 2012 was more balanced and representative of the country.

This year their sample group is clearly right leaning

File: 1475781183483.jpg (47KB, 487x432px) Image search: [Google]

47KB, 487x432px

why are the shills starting to pick up all of a sudden
>highschool and middle school are out

>>91882775
OMFG

>>91878271
>state
>color
Yeah fucknig right

>>91878951
And he's called everything in THIS election wrong so far.

>>91882539
Keep in mind Nate Silver is not predicting who becomes president. He predicts per-state vote share.

He's literally playing 4D chess while you're playing Magic: The Gathering with your autistic little brother.

>>91880150
I don't think you understood that picture dipshit.

>>91882833
You do realize LA TIMES is just polling the group of people every day right? People generally don't change their opinions on presidential candidates. That's why it's an outlier poll that shouldn't be taken seriously.

File: US election map final.png (65KB, 769x587px) Image search: [Google]

65KB, 769x587px

Friendly reminder that the hot/cold temperature-adjusted electoral map is the single most infallible electoral map ever devised, and that anyone arguing otherwise has been scientifically proven to be "fucking stupid". Red is hot and blue is cold, everyone knows this and you'd have to be dumber than a kindergartner to not understand just why this map is so flawless. This WILL be the result come election day.

>>91883183
>People generally don't change their opinions on presidential candidates.
and this is why trump went from 50% to 15% in a couple of weeks?

>>91883183
Same group*

>>91882136
CNN and MSNBC, retard.

File: Screen Shot 2016-10-07 at 12.15.16 PM.png (308KB, 735x688px) Image search: [Google]

308KB, 735x688px

>>91882587
The LA times poll is unique in that it surveys the same group of around 3,000 people throughout the campaign, rather than choosing a new sample for each poll. What this means it that if the original sample that's chosen matches the general electorate, the poll will ultimately be very accurate. The opposite is true as well, though —if the original sample happens to oversample supporters of one candidate or another, it will never be able to correct for that. This is what's happened with the LA Times poll this year re: Trump supporters.

In any event, the LA Times poll was not amongst the most accurate in 2012, despite what many Trumpkins are telling themselves.

>>91883290
>CNN
>unbiased

>>91879658
Most delegates in history

>>91883291
so if that chart is right then you TRUST GOOGLE SURVEYS RIGHT??


well they have trump tied in PA and up in all the states he needs to win the presidency..............

>>91879658
everyone has a ceiling. no candidate will get 100% of the vote

even nate would admit he was severely wrong about the ceiling thing. in fact, nate recently thought it was very likely that trump could win the election, but that's impossible now seeing the post-debate landscape

>>91883291
Ever ask yourself who put that 'bias measurement' together? these types of heavy evaluations of everyone elses polling can also be biased and wrong right?

File: hillarypepe5.jpg (180KB, 637x412px) Image search: [Google]

180KB, 637x412px

>>91883832
So, what you've done is identify one pollster amongst 20 listed, find a single poll from that pollster that has positive results for Trump, and use this to dispute every other poll showing Trump behind.

Keep cherry picking the polls all you want, by all means. It will make Trump's defeat in November that much more delicious.

File: if this nigga dont shut the fuck up.jpg (90KB, 463x463px) Image search: [Google]

90KB, 463x463px

>it's another "CTR or trolls bait /pol/ for (You)s because /pol/ is too God damn retarded to not only not respond, but not even to use sage" episode

File: if-today.jpg (36KB, 883x286px) Image search: [Google]

36KB, 883x286px

just wait till the debates they said.

File: 1475726372531.png (441KB, 1156x1676px) Image search: [Google]

441KB, 1156x1676px

>>91884345
lmao

heres another one HIGH ON THAT LIST

UPI/CVOTER

HAST TRUMP AHEAD ALL OVAAAAA

>>91884075
No. Those numbers are averages, by which I mean, a fact of mathematics. There's no way to "bias" an arithmetic mean. Deny the evidence all you want, Trump is going down.

>>91884345
I'M PRETTY SURE ITS ALL OVER FOR GRANDMA


b but muh polls muh pollssss

File: Bildschirmfoto 2016-10-07 um 21.31.57.png (36KB, 832x152px) Image search: [Google]

36KB, 832x152px

>>91884403
HMMM
20% now friend,
40% on monday mark my words

File: 1475623247480.png (240KB, 804x732px) Image search: [Google]

240KB, 804x732px

>>91884526
Keep telling yourself that! Seriously, please do. It will make your tears much tastier once Trump loses.

File: trump-beating.jpg (78KB, 785x757px) Image search: [Google]

78KB, 785x757px

>>91884784
Keep telling yourself that! Seriously, please do. It will make your tears much tastier once Clinton loses.

>begins his campaign saying an entire nation of people are rapists and murderers
>loses a state that is 30% comprised of those people

NO FUCKING WAY! YOU GOTTA BE SHITTING ME!

His whole campaign has been one long dogshit trainwreck, and the fact that he's come this far speaks volumes about poor, white, uneducated idiots.

>>91884784
>these soulless reverse-engineered hillshill memes

disgusting, it's like you cretins churned them out in a sweatshop

>>91878951
soon to be 3 elections right

>>91884997
>>begins his campaign saying an entire nation of people are rapists and murderers

can you give me the exact quote here

>>91884784
You CTR faggots suck at memes
Oh and all your dox got dropped so have fun while you still can

File: hillarypepe8.jpg (538KB, 1440x1529px) Image search: [Google]

538KB, 1440x1529px

>>91884993
Making like a true Trump supporter and adopting the rhetoric of a petulant four-year-old. Keep it up ;)

>>91884997
Kek <---
Kek
Kek

>>91885178
What the fuck do you know about actual elections rusfag? How's supreme overlord pussy Putin treating you in you're Slavic hellhole?

>>91878271
AND I'M FREE
FREE FALLIN'

File: hillary.webm (1MB, 421x480px) Image search: [Google]

1MB, 421x480px

>>91885308
I will :^)

File: hillarypepe7.jpg (561KB, 1817x1205px) Image search: [Google]

561KB, 1817x1205px

>>91885264
It's hilarious to me that every time I post a hillfrog meme, you assume I'm CTR. I'm not, although I freely admit, I wish I was getting paid for this. But really, the personal satisfaction I derive is payment enough :)

@CTR91885308
you shills suck at memes

also sage

>Nate Comic Sans

>>91878951
>just because it happened before means it will happen again
That's called confirmation bias.
Btw, and check your privileged, you biased prick.

>>91885503
>But really, the personal satisfaction I derive is payment enough :)

for some reason i really doubt it

>>91884997
>"FUCK WHITE PEOPLE"
>"W-why are white people voting for a pro-white candidate?"

Going to love socialists committing mass-suicide after Trump wins.

>>91878271
Do the CTR shills even realize they are all public record now?

The CTR Shills:

https://beta.fec.gov/data/disbursements/?two_year_transaction_period=2016&disbursement_purpose_categories=other&committee_id=C00578997&min_date=01-01-2015&max_date=10-05-2016

http://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/318/201607159020655318/201607159020655318.pdf#navpanes=0

File: hillarypepe2.jpg (301KB, 1194x763px) Image search: [Google]

301KB, 1194x763px

>>91885497
I'm just going to say this right now: On election night, when Trump loses, you *will* remember this thread. You will recall this conversation, and you'll know that I am deriving great joy out of knowing that you, personally, are disappointed. Have a great day!

>>91878951
Wait...

so...

Is Ted Cruz the nominee?

Nate is always right, right?

>>91882045
$0.01 has been deposited in your account.

>>91879658
Nate specifically predicted Cruz would win.

File: 13.2.jpg (28KB, 883x709px) Image search: [Google]

28KB, 883x709px

>>91885899
Thinking that anyone who doesn't like Trump must be paid. yeah buddy.

>>91881435
Oh shit...

Shills will literally have people at their doors...

Better stock up on adult diapers, CTR.

>>91883183
You moron. He's pointing out that NOW, all of a sudden, the makeup of the sample matters. Whereas it doesn't with the polls that show Hillary winning.

>>91883275
This. Either the public is super fickle or has already made up their minds. Pick one and only one.

>>91885994
Nate "Trump has less than 1% chance of winning the primary" Silver.
Nate "Trump has hit his primary ceiling at 32%" Silver

File: smug_trump.jpg (39KB, 388x392px) Image search: [Google]

39KB, 388x392px

>>91878951

This professor has predicted the last 8 elections correctly and he is going with Trump

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/23/trump-is-headed-for-a-win-says-professor-whos-predicted-30-years-of-presidential-outcomes-correctly/

>>91885968
http://www.breitbart.com/tech/2016/09/14/clinton-campaign-pepe-frog-symbol-white-supremacy/amp/

Don't shit yourself hypocrite.

>>91878271
>Nate Shillver

Everyone, get in this thread and help us win over the CTR shills:

>>91859267

FIGHT THE GOOD FIGHT!!!!!

>>91885899
wow this really helps to point out the shills on an anonymous board, thanks anon!

>>91879658

You weren't paying attention. When the field narrowed to 3-4 candidates he was winning states with margins of 55-65%. Look at the acela primaries as an example.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016#April_26.2C_2016:_Acela_primary

>>91886413
You'll be dragged to death in the streets.

Why would the most pro gun state, vote for the most anti gun candidate ever?

>>91886706
>Why would the most pro gun state, vote for the most anti gun candidate ever?

Because a stable economy trumpets guns.

>>91886706
Me too

>>91886256
"One person I have never met before said Trump would win and I believe him, what now CTR scum??"
Clinton is destroying Trump in every poll. People around the US vote, and then whoever gets the most electoral votes wins. Last time I checked this professor doesn't have the power to decide an entire election.
Fucking Trump shills with the critical thinking of a 2 year old.

>>91878271
What's the point of this tactic? To make people think there's no point in voting for what they want? Seems kind of silly to think someone would vote for a candidate based on their chance of winning, it's not like you win anything for choosing the right answer.

>>91886279
Fact check: I'm not from the Hillary Clinton campaign, so this doesn't demonstrate hypocrisy. Thanks for playing!

>>91880662
>/b/tard pollster has to get something off of his chest

"The stories and information posted here are artistic works of fiction and falsehood.
Only a fool would take anything posted here as fact."

wow ctr .. just wow

>>91878271
>omg the poll forecast from a random site fluctuated from 50% to 13% i better make a thread before it goes back to 50%

spot the CTR

File: White Wolf Blood River.jpg (90KB, 799x535px) Image search: [Google]

90KB, 799x535px

CTR shills are giving it all they've got.

They are desperate.

They are scared.

And, they should be.

They have failed Hillary.

They have been exposed.

https://beta.fec.gov/data/disbursements/?two_year_transaction_period=2016&disbursement_purpose_categories=other&committee_id=C00578997&min_date=01-01-2015&max_date=08-05-2016

http://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/318/201607159020655318/201607159020655318.pdf#navpanes=0

They are literally posting for their lives!!

Arizona is 25% legal Mexicans and a few % black so it's actually possible for her to win it. She'll only need 1/3 of the white vote to win.

>>91887200
>>91887281
>>91887135

>CTR

Middle school must have ended for the day.

>>91886911

Just saying that if you want to make an appeal to authority, the guy who has accurately predicted each election since 1984 is better than Nate Rubber.

I don't really care that pollsters who admit they poll more Democrats than Republicans are finding that Hillary is ahead. They are erroneously assuming that she will get the same turnout Obongo did and Trump will get the same turnout Romney did.

>>91886836
>stable

Just going to keep throwing a trillion dollars of debt into the fire until she is out of office. Then when everything goes bad. It is the sitting president's fault, and not the one who kept shoveling deeper into the hole.

>>91878271
>dat wishful thinking

File: 538-6.png (140KB, 1000x840px) Image search: [Google]

140KB, 1000x840px

>>91887281
talk about exposed

>>91887452
How will Trump get the US out of debt? Trickle down economics?

>>91878598
99/100 states in the last two elections he's predicted accurately
But if not, there are plenty of other polls which will show a similiar kind of result if this one hurts your feelings too much

>>91887333
Trump is doing worse among whites than Romney did, so yeah very possible for Arizona and some other red states to turn blue

>>91886836
They won't get either with Hillary.

File: IMG_8723.png (110KB, 750x1334px) Image search: [Google]

110KB, 750x1334px

>>91878598
He predicted the last two elections with a 50/50 and 49/50 accuracy. If you want to willfully ignore the entire field of statistics that's your problem lmaooo

>>91882775
source?

>>91878951
>This level of gambler's fallacy

>>91887544
by reversing the things that have harmed the US worker and simplifying the tax code.

hillary's plan to raise taxes on the rich, do nothing about globalism, increase operational costs of doing business in america, and have the federal government act as a venture capital investor.

basically borrowing money from our great grandchildren's taxes. To pay companies to employ people until she is out of office. While established business and capital takes the one time Exit Tax hit and leaves for Signapore, Costa Rica, Canada, Mexico, China, etc.

>Nate Pyrite

>>91888265
Kek, don't you realize how hard the companies will fight? They won't care about paying a 35% tariff, they'll simply charge 35% more.

>>91887070

The story and the image are independent of each other, genius.

So after Trump loses badly, will doom Scarborough become a thing?

>WHY DIDN'T YOU DISAVOW HIM?

>>91887744
statfag here. do agree.

the only thing that will give trump a win is a big external event.

now that the us has said russia is officially behind the hacks, the discredit campaign will start on any future releases

wikileaks or russia or someone will need to have a real smoking gun. even then the media will filter it out.

trump can't win. hillary is president elect.

Its been over for a while now. Elsewhere, away from this delusional echo chamber of a board, it's common Knowledge already that trump has no path to victory.

It was fun and i enjoyed the ride but the immature stuff is over and its time to be grown ups now and vote experience.

Say what you want about clinton but this 1 fact cant be argued.

Hillary Clinton wants to do good in the world. She legitimately cares and wants to to do good. To say otherwise is pure delusion. You may not agree with her vision but her intent is clearly good in nature. Is she perfect? No. Is she the mother teresa? Absolutely not. But it cant be said she intends to harm the united states.

Hillary is the superior here. With 50 years experience. She knows what a leppo is and she knows all the intricate workings of all the important issues.

Trump? Hes no no angel. Hes a ruthless businessman who cheated the system his entire life at the expense of people like you and me. He has a history of narcissism literally documented via reality tv for decades. 2 years ago trump was the laughing stock of the world. He was the angry orange faced sleazy hotel owner who was in love with himself.

So how did we get here? I dont believe trump would intend to do harm but his arrogance and lack of experience WILL do legitimate harm. Hes not a level headed individual and any advice his generals give him has a better chance pursuading the infamously stubborn adolf hitler rather then donald trump.

The ride was fun.
It was fun sticking it to the sjws and pc police.
I had a blast. The tears were delicious.
But that's over now.
It's time to get serious. This isnt reality tv. Its real life.

I suspect many of you will come to this realization the morning of the election inside the voting booth. When its time to cast and you see drumpf's name it will finally sink in.

Expect a large landslide win for madam clinton because many level headed folks WILL COME to their senses at the last minute.

>>91881435
Is there any way I can search for addresses close to me? These CTR guys are REALLY starting to piss me off and I'm ready to troll in real life because I'm tired of these suckers.

File: Trump drinking scotch.jpg (67KB, 413x395px) Image search: [Google]

67KB, 413x395px

>>91888854
CTR, here's to you

Suckin' my dick

>>91888854
i just support Trump in the primaries to btfo the republicans and social conservatives.

mission accomplished. thanks kek and everyone at pol

it's been a pleasure working with you.

>>91887744
I flipped a coin and it came up heads twice, clearly it's going to be heads again

File: Nate.png (2MB, 696x4600px) Image search: [Google]

2MB, 696x4600px

>>91878826

>>91878271
>Arizona
>only time voted democrat since Truman was clintons reelection

They call us delusional lol

>>91886561
That's because there are no Republicans on the East Coast you literal nigger...

>>91878271
There are two more debates to come.

>>91878271
Iowa is for trump, so is Arizona. Nevada and Colorado are swing states but looks like they will go red. Problem CTR faggot?

File: Screen Shot 2016-09-25 at 8.19.35 PM.png (455KB, 522x512px) Image search: [Google]

455KB, 522x512px

>>91887744
>two elections

>>91887565
Lemme guess you used the shitty polls that oversample Democrats to come up with that, didn't you.

>>91878271
>Believing the lies of Nate (((Silberstein)))

>>91878271

I llove how yall get scared when Nate Platinum shows you the truth.

>>91890434
wow you just destroyed the entire field of statistics, nice job

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independence_(probability_theory)

>>91892002

So after 2 more he will be losing Georgia.

>>91893239
does it really make sense for you to purposely try and poll an equal number of Democrats and Republicans? what if there are more Democrats in the country than Republicans?

>>91878271
I seriously don't think Trump is going to win more than 10 states.