If Trump loses North Carolina it's literally over. RCP

>>91877308
>Wisconsin
>blue

Not this time m8, we got voter id..

Also

>Colorado
>blue

Wew

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>>91877828
Whatever you say, lil nigga

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>>91877308
I like that my state actually matters now.

And there is still a month left. Anything can happen. Remember retarded Romney?
Fucked up after a hurricane and 2 debates.

>>91878490
>if i post biased polls I am correct

>>91878490
>(((polls)))
Kek try again

>>91877828
if that's true he already won, he need just to not fuck the debate.

>>91877308
Isn't he winning in Colorado?
>>91879573
North Carolina is the best state in America by far.

If Trump loses
It's over.

>>91877308
She's up 2.4 in Florida as well. Trump literally has no path to victory without Florida.

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>>91880046

>>91877308

>Trump losing NC
>possible

I think even the triangle faggots hate Hillary enough to vote for Trump. The only thing we have to worry about are legions of niggers in the rural areas. But who are we kidding they don't vote.

t. NCfaggot in OBX

>>91878490
>Monmouth

Okay.

>>91879573
NC is the new Virginia

Y'all will be one of the most important states for the next 30 years

>>91880163
>monmouth
loving every laugh

le 15 point bias face

can't be taken serious at this point, nice "source"

>>91877308
>Shillary
>winning NC

If Romney won in 2012, Trump will sweep it

t. Mecklenburg County

>>91880345
I mean, if you're just gonna believe all of the polls are rigged, and think that polling companies that have been accurate in the past are going to throw their credibility away by rigging polls just because they don't like Trump, there's nothing worth saying to you.

>RCP

>>91877308
He's polling worse in Florida than in NC actually.

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>>91880178
Blacks vote almost as much as whites, and actually vote more often than whites for black candidates like Obama.

Hispanics are the ones who stay home.

>>91880345
Monmouth is definitely biased toward Hillary, but only by 0.6 points on average.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

>>91880697
I think the issue then was even though he did it was really close.

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>>91881123
Trump can take Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina and still lose.

He's in a really tough situation.

>>91881803
>>91877308
>state
>color
yeah right

>>91877308
Its been over for a while now. Elsewhere, away from this delusional echo chamber of a board, it's common Knowledge already that trump has no path to victory.

It was fun and i enjoyed the ride but the immature stuff is over and its time to be grown ups now and vote experience.

Say what you want about clinton but this 1 fact cant be argued.

Hillary Clinton wants to do good in the world. She legitimately cares and wants to to do good. To say otherwise is pure delusion. You may not agree with her vision but her intent is clearly good in nature. Is she perfect? No. Is she the mother teresa? Absolutely not. But it cant be said she intends to harm the united states.

Hillary is the superior here. With 50 years experience. She knows what a leppo is and she knows all the intricate workings of all the important issues.

Trump? Hes no no angel. Hes a ruthless businessman who cheated the system his entire life at the expense of people like you and me. He has a history of narcissism literally documented via reality tv for decades. 2 years ago trump was the laughing stock of the world. He was the angry orange faced sleazy hotel owner who was in love with himself.

So how did we get here? I dont believe trump would intend to do harm but his arrogance and lack of experience WILL do legitimate harm. Hes not a level headed individual and any advice his generals give him has a better chance pursuading the infamously stubborn adolf hitler rather then donald trump.

The ride was fun.
It was fun sticking it to the sjws and pc police.
I had a blast. The tears were delicious.
But that's over now.
It's time to get serious. This isnt reality tv. Its real life.

I suspect many of you will come to this realization the morning of the election inside the voting booth. When its time to cast and you see drumpf's name it will finally sink in.

Expect a large landslide win for madam clinton because many level headed folks WILL COME to their senses at the last minute.

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>>91878490
>Monmouth
>Keating Reserarch
wtf are those numbers!? That's impossible for pic reason.
>Implying Hillary will act better than Obama
>Implying Trump will act way worse than Romney.
It's probable Hillary will get Colorado, but these numbers are impossible

>>91883963
2012 in Colorado:
Obama - 51,49%
Romney - 46,13%

>>91877308
So what's your point? If you hate Trump and you're confident Hillary will win then why don't you just sit back and edit for your assured victory?

Instead you're here, trying to spread doubt and concern... almost as if you're trying to influence voters. Why would that be necessary exactly?

First off, Colorado is going Red 100% I don't know why people think it's going blue. Colorado only gone blue in the last 2 election cycles over the past 100 years. Colorado is a Red State, the MSM is so fucking retarded along with these jigaboo pollsters.

>>91883793
>deposit shekels

This shit doesn't work when people know shills exist.

>>91878490
>Monmout: Clinton +11
>Gravis: Trump +4

You see why nobody trusts the polls?

>>91880910
a lot of them might not even be intentionally biased, but the methodology and weighting are always flawed (more or less) and don't correspond to reality exactly. for example if some random person calls you on your phone then do you think everyone is going to admit that they're a """"racist"""" and risk getting harassed? a shitload of people don't answer phone interviews. so phone polls and other polls can be seriously flawed.

>>91884305
Yup they're total bullshit... all of them. I only think (((they))) allow favorable Trump polls just so they can feign outrage of non issues and release Clinton +10 ones the next week.

I've seen the same thing over and over.

>wow Trump is up so much
>omg he stepped on a worm
>he's plummeting now! his campaign is over! look at these polls
>"I like trump but I wish we would stop stepping on worms, I can't see him recovering from this"

Yet somehow he keeps filling stadiums and front lawns around the country.

Really makes you think.

>>91881803
No this is acrtually really good for Trump. If he's got OH, NC, and FL on lock. He just needs to maintain 3 swing states, and flip 1 more swing state. Meanwhile HIllary has to maintain those other 7 or so swing states.

It' s alot easier to put a lot of effort into swinging one state, than it is to maintain all the states.

>>91877828
Heh, not for long.

http://host.madison.com/ct/news/local/govt-and-politics/election-matters/federal-judge-to-consider-request-to-suspend-wisconsin-s-voter/article_7debaaf0-b014-59ca-8bde-ab9f058b820e.html

The other cases of voter ID laws have been struck down, pretty much setting a precedent.

>>91883963
Hillary is definitely worse than Obama, but Trump is way, way worse than Romney

Trump's whole strategy was increasing white turnout, but he's doing worse with white voters than Romney did

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-doing-worse-than-romney-did-among-white-voters/

>>91880910
Considering the amount of assblasting Trump has caused, it doesn't seem that far-fetched

>>91877308
they should really break up cali, it has way too much power

It comes down to where it usually does: 4 corners area with Orange and Meck being the deciders. If Trump keeps Clinton under 55 in both, he eeks it out. Just like Tillis and Romney, he wins.

But he has struggled with college Ed whites, women, and worse: Dems are registering voters at an appallingly high rate. And, alas, there's no secret group of white voters in the mountains.

It's gonna be fucking close. Being from NC, I originally put cash on Trump winning. But it looks like I stand to lose a lot of money now...

t. NC resident and politics reporter

>>91877308
Trump will win Pennsylvania. Kek wills it.

>>91885956
>4 corners
Where is this? I grew up in NC and have never heard this used.

>>91885698
Horseshit. He's been reaching out to all groups, and he's the first republican in memory to do so.

It's like you shills think we don't follow the election.

>>91886207

Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill, and Apex.

Turnout for Trump has to be over 45% in those areas for him to stay viable.

>>91886207
>>91887387

Yeah, the phrase isn't used much it's just to differentiate it from the Triangle, as it's slightly different. Only really used in election context (at least when I've heard it used).

>>91883793
Best post I've ever seen on /pol/.

>>91884305
Gravis poll ended a week before the debate you mouth-breather.

Attitudes have shifted substantially over the past 3 weeks.

>>91885956
> Dems are registering voters at an appallingly high rate

Well why don't the Repubs try to put forth more efforts like this then and have voter drives and other efforts? I'm an independent myself just curious. It's only a bad thing that more people are voting because they don't vote for that side if they did you honestly wouldn't care and wouldn't say it's an appalling rate.

>>91888390

Because trump has no ground game. Other R campaigns have done this historically. Also, R voters are more likely to already be registered.

>>91888390
Because Trump's ground game is a shit show and Clinton inherited the Obama GOTV coalition.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-clinton-field-offices/

>>91885345
>pretty much setting precedent

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crawford_v._Marion_County_Election_Board

>>91885192
He doesn't have them on lock, though.

RCP has Hillary solidly ahead in both Florida and North Carolina. Trump leads in Ohio, but seems to be slipping.

>>91888633
>>91888706
Yeah so then I'm right in that it's not "appalling" it's just that they themselves fucking suck at it and won't admit it.

>>91888706
>http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-clinton-field-offices/

Yeah my town (Gastonia) has an office too I'm not that far from it.

People too young to remember the Bush years want Trump.

People too racist and sexist to accept Obama or Hillary want Trump.

/pol/ in a nutshell

>>91888839

It's both. They fucking suck and establishment dem organizational machine is fucking amazing. I would say appallingly so. But it's two enormous factors that create a chasm between their in-state efforts.

>>91889111
I feel like it's also some people who just want shit to burn who really want Trump.

>>91888390
Because Trump has less money. This means less ground game like >>91888633 said

Honestly if Rubio or even fucking Jeb won the primary Hillary would have no chance. But even though Trump has a lot of energized voters, he lacks the resources and popular appeal to get enough asses in the ballot booth to win an election.

The ground game deficit will be important in Florida I think.

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>>91883793
"What's wrong with having it good for a change? Now they're gonna let us have it good if we just help 'em. They're gonna leave us alone, let us make some money. You can have a little taste of that good life too. Now, I know you want it. Hell, everybody does."

I hope your soul is worth 25 cents, motherfucker.

>>91885698
You are implying Trump is being a catastrophic candidate at a Walter Mondale level. You know that it isn't true.

>>91880059
>if
when*

>>91889618

Yeah, but he A) has never had the same emphasis on actually raising money that traditional campaigns do, B) hasn't given two shits about ground game even when he did have cash and, C) is seemingly focusing on the wrong states.

>>91887025
Cool ad hominem my man

>>91877308
>both Carolina voted for Romney

But Hillary is just so much more likeable than Obama right?

>>91885698
>but Trump is way, way worse than Romney

Can people really write this shit unironically?

Romney was basically forced on the people. During the debates he barely uttered a word and was "the clear winner".

>>91883793
> ow that trump is slightly lagging I'll switch to the Devil herself in hillary to be on le winning team

Jesus fucking Christ does this actually convince anyone

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reminder

>>91889772
Trump has a lot going for him that establishment candidates lack, but an energized core is much less important than having the resources that get you elected.

Trump's loss won't be pathetic like Mondale, but will probably lose by a pretty big margin, at least in the electoral college.

>>91878490
RCP leaves trusted polls out all the time. If they were accurate, NM would be tied right now.

>>91890316
Is he telling the truth? Did Reid never lead in an RCP average back in 2010?

>>91880178
the triangle pretends to like her for the most part. most of them will stay home. the other day I wore my MAGA hat in carborro and got compliments.

t. trianglenigger

I'm going to enjoy /pol/'s butthurt, ensuing trump's inevitable defeat, so much. I'm preparing my sides already.

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>>91883793
That's the whole liberal mindset in a nutshell: Liberals have good intentions, best intentions, no doubt, but what about the results? Style is more important than substance? When the narrative doesn't match the reality, what are we supposed to do? Ignore the reality and double down on the crazy? What can possibly go wrong?
Now look at the methodology of all those polls that give Clinton the advantage and tell me why are Democrats over-sampled by more than 10 points, and independents sampling are cut in half? Any poll that samples more than 4 point advantage for democrats over republicans, or samples independents at less than 30%, is feeding into a liberal delusion... liberals only made 25% of the voters in the last election. Obama won with the moderates who made up 40% of the voters... The sharp turn to the left lost the DNC much of the moderate support they used to have. If you buy into the narrative that liberals make up more than half the country, it is you who live in a delusional echo chamber.
The moderates don't like Obama doubling the national debt to $20 trillion, with nothing to show for it... They don't like the failure of Obamacare and the blatant lies surrounding it.
They don't believe that just pretending there is no such thing as radical Islam will make it go away... The don't think writing blank checks is a good idea, and an open border is just like writing a blank check... They don't buy into the gender baiting gimmicks, The race baiting BLM anti-authority narratives, or that Hillary is less beholden to the financial global elites than Trump is...
This election is about holding on to the center, to moderation, to common sense, and to uniting the nation in common purpose, to make America great again for everyone.

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>>91881803
Yup! Hillary's narrowest path to victory should be pretty easy for her to hit. I'm not worried at all, she's got this in the bag.

>>91891743

Living next to Carrboro, you have either A) just lied about wearing a Trump hat in Carrboro or B) the biggest balls on Earth. You're liable to get lynched around Weaver Street if you wear a MAGA hat!

>>91892654
Based Hillary is now guaranteed to win no matter what. Personally, I'm not even going to bother voting. Why waste your time when Hillary is going to win anyway? Let's just sit here and laugh at /pol/ as Drumpf gets BTFO. Based!

>>91892654
I hope that there is some configuration that allows Gary Johnson to be the deciding factor (winning/spoiling in NM) that allows Trump to win by a hair. The butthurt between social libertarians and lefties would be incandescent.

>>91878490
september polls lol

>>91892870
prepare your sides.

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>>91877308

Then it's over. Federal court struck down NC's racist voter ID law and Dems are working overtime registering voters there.

Trump has no GOTV organization, he's dead man walking.

>>91879573
North Carolina is a great state, you're lucky. It's my favourite in fact.

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>>91892388
>...to make America great again for everyone.

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>>91883793
>Elsewhere, away from this delusional echo chamber of a board, it's common Knowledge already that trump has no path to victory.

Is that why on every other liberal board, people were panicking for months, especially 2 weeks ago when Trump was starting to lead in Colorado, and tied in Pennsylvania and Maine?

All Trump has to do is get two good debates, a few bad headlines for HIllary to get back to that level, then get good turnout. In the last New Hampshire poll, he's only down 2 points.

>>91894000
but you manage to read this, which is longer:
>>91883793
and you didn't find it too long?
You just exposed your bias... hypocrite!
What's the matter, the truth hurts?
Go ahead, keep your diet of spoon fed CNN soundbites. No need to look behind the curtain...

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>>91879573
Trump will carry NC, the mountain-folk are much more fired up to vote than the black populace.

>>91877308
Don't worry, Trump will DESTROY Clinton in the second and this debates. He was just setting her up to be over confident after the first debate.

Trump is going to win in a LANDSLIDE. Anyone who disagrees is a CTR shill.

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>>91897514
>scmug

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>>91897514
>Anyone who disagrees is a CTR shill.

That's why this board is shit. I want him to win more than anything right now but if he doesn't I'll come back here to rub it in your fucking faces anyway

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>>91897972
>taking hyperbolic joke posts seriously, while you ignore the countless Hill shills spamming

Please don't come back

>>91877308
>If

lel

Lol this thread was made hours before the stumpening

>>91900145
trump is up 4 in iowa..

This map is pretty.. generous. He's losing in Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Arizona and Nevada.

>>91877308
Wow this map is soo accurate

Blue = America
Red = Dumfuckistan

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>>91900145
>Nate Toilet Paper

>>91879973
can confirm it is true.
Only reason Obongo won Wisconsin 4 years ago was because they bused 2k dindus up from South Chirag and had them pretend to be dead people. My grandma worked the booth and told us about the 100s of black youth named Murel and Eugene that showed up.

>>91884757

you are right, individual polls make different assumptions, making some polls more unreliable than others

some polls make really shitty assumptions - we can gauge this based off of how wrong they've historically been

but some polls seem to be closer to representing reality than other polls. again, historically speaking

so what's wrong with averaging the polls, giving more weight to the polls that have empirically been shown to represent the outcome the best

>>91883793

Oh my god I'm crying thank you anon

>>91883793
Shut up criminal.

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>>91888135
>>91903333
>>91901383
>>91900519
>>91889111

You have to go back.

>>91903333
sorry I got a few more hours on my shift

i don't want to be killed senpai :(

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>>91879573
>NC voter
>deeply divided between voting for Johnson on the issues or voting for Trump so he'll do crazy shit

no one can find out how you vote right? I don't want to be lynched

>>91901906
This literally did not happen. Also, Obama won WI by nearly 7 points

>>91901906
why didn't your grandmother report it to republican gov scott walker????

why does she hate america?

>all pollsters with hillary leading are (((polls)))
>all polls with trump leading are the word of god
guys you can't avoid reality for another whole month can you

>>91885192
he has to win complete tossup states. odds are he'll only win half of them.

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>>91907682
>all polls with Trump leading are outliers and biased and rigged by the evil vast right-wing conspiracy
>all polls with Hillary leading are untouchable

Shit will keep fluctuating for the next month as it did in the last months, especially with the next debates coming up.

>>91905352
From what I saw the NC voter registration check just shows the times and locations you voted not who you voted for. I used this: https://enr.ncsbe.gov/voter_search_public/

I suggest any other NCbros out there also check to make sure you are registered.

>>91883793
If I heard you talking like that in person, I'd have to fuck your pussy mouth, (((1))).

>>91908504
the majority of polls are showing hillary leading at the moment, end of story. stop strawmanning so hard.
the trend has been convincingly blue for the past few months.

>>91908504
you know that even if someone calls an individual poll an outlier, they still include it in their model, right?

do you think the people who make these models just disregard random polls that don't line up with their preferences?

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>>91877308

Shit, even LA times, the sole stable trump general election poll, has dropped three points towards a tie over this week.

>>91909663
that's just evidence that Hillary is buying them out senpai

don't worry, no one has taken down their yard signs near me, and the american public hasn't even heard about her emails or benghazi yet

everything is okay

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>>91908860

Only two weeks ago, Trump was leading in almost every poll in Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Nevada, and NC. He was even leading in Colorado, and practically tied in states like Pennsylvania and Maine. He was also tied or leading in a lot of National polls like Quinnipiac, Bloomberg, CNN...

Even now, he's statisically tied in the last poll in New Hampshire, and only down 2 points in the last national poll (Fox).

All he needs is to get back momentum to where he was 2 weeks ago. If he wins Florida, Ohio, Nevada, NC and Iowa, all he needs is another state like Colorado, Pennsylvania or New Hampshire to get over 270.

>>91909938
exactly

>>91893364
I live in NM and it has a chance to vote for Johnson, i'd fucking die if this happens

>>91909938
>>91910231
early voting is already happening in the swing states

>>91909938
and now he's not doing as well in many of the states that he HAS to win. if those are all tossups, and the trend of massive fluctuations continues, odds are that he'll only win half of them. which means he loses.
face reality already.

>>91910560

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/09/yuge-trump-leads-early-voting-florida-120000-first-republicans-state/

>>91877308
>Trump
>losing NC
Obama couldn't flip it again in 2012, and he barely did it in 2008. It's a red state.

>>91910818
polls have been saying otherwise.

>>91911261
polls mean jackshit this election cycle

>>91910784
that's only correct assuming all the republicans vote for trump

here is the raw data: https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

you're gonna have to justify why you think trump is pulling all of the republicans

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RCP current projection

>>91910784
Trump doesn't lead early voting, he leads ABSENTEE voting.

Republicans always do.

>>91911629
Trends are much more definitive than the actual level, and the trends are showing a dive in the polls for Trump. And with two more debates and another week of bad news headlines for Donald, he has no chance of pulling ahead (he never managed to pass 40% of the popular vote, and he only came close twice before quickly climaxing back down in the polls).

>>91879920
"THE ONLY POLLS THAT AREN'T BIASED ARE THE ONES THAT SHOW TRUMP IN THE LEAD!!!!!!"

>>91913648
i.e. winning every tossup except two

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This won't help him.

>>91880697
Screencappong u for mah collage faggot.

>>91885192
Not only does he not have "OH, NC, and FL" on lock (including the other swing states NH, NV, and IO) but that isn't the way flipping states work. Each state more or less has a certain degree of Clinton or Trump support, and as the national trend changes, all the states change by roughly the same amount. You can't "focus" on a certain state (yes, politicians do spend an obscene amount of money and time on these states, but the only thing that's really moving the polls are news headlines like debates and scandals).

>>91913648
Trump ain't winning Colorado

>>91888796

>solidly ahead
>2 pts

kek, new polls show trump going back to stabilizing after the shocking debate.

>>91885907
Breaking up the state would only give it more voting power, dumbass.

You'd have to literally kick people out of the state if you wanted them to have less "power."

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Hes fucking finished!

>>91914982

>State splits the vote by tenths

There. The problem with a winner-take all system is in larger state where it would be impossible to ever meaningfully change opinion.

>>91914584
Well get me too then
Onslow here

>>91892388
There are some polls that correct for party identification, but it's meaningless since there are literally significantly more registered democrats than republicans, so weighting it to 50% is retarded and inaccurate.

>>91897514
Trump lost the debate because he's a lazy, unintelligent retard who refused to prepare for the debate, even disregarding the council of his inner circles to do so.

Why do you think the next debates will be any different? He's just going to work real hard this time isn't he? You sound more gullible than kids who fail the first exam but think they should be able to ace the next one with slightly more effort applied.

>>91913460
Trump is at 44-45% of the popular vote

>>91909875
>and the american public hasn't even heard about her emails or benghazi yet

Okay, no one can be this retarded, right?

>>91883793
Amen

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>win 35 out of 50 states
>still lose

what the fuck?

>>91905352
unless you want hillary vote trump

>>91879573
sc does everything nc does better

>>91877308
Not gonna lie, former Trump voter here. This is fucking hilarious watching Trump crash and burn. But in all seriousness we can't let this guy get the nuclear codes.

>>91917668
Then why do the roads suck the moment you cross the border into SC?

Not gonna lie, former Hillary voter here. This is fucking hilarious watching Hillary crash and burn. But in all seriousness we can't let this mao ze dung-looking fuck get the nuclear codes.