What will the future swing states be? Pic related shows the states

>>130967314
If NV had ID laws I wonder if they would stay blue.

>>130967314
PA will remain a swing state. Going red last time around almost ensures a big salty blue push back, or at least targeting.

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>>130969175
A three point swing in Trump's direction in 2020 actually gives him Minnesota, NH, and Maine-at-large. PA should be fine. Don't know if Pence would win it in 2024 though

>>130967314
we'll go blue next cycle.
t. Pennsylvania

>>130969623
Why? Disappointed with Trump in the first few months?

>>130969446
2016 was kind of a unique situation for PA. I don't know that we'd see a replay. Unless Trump winds up really sucking, he should retain most or all of his voterbase. But unless D screws up hard and has their voter base defecting or sitting it out again then it won't be hard to tip ti blue in 2020.

At this juncture, I'm not sure what Trump could do to pick up more cross-party voters. He kind of has his hands tied dealing with more important things at the moment, but if in the long run he manages to woo more Bernie-type democrats with rustbelt promises, capability of easing the major financial correction that will probably happen by 2020, or other such heroic displays I suppose might give him a chance.

We'll also be going blue.
t. North Carolina

>>130970665
How can you tell already?

>>130968175
Fuck no it wouldn't. Union ballot-stuffing scams in Vegas is what turns that state. Same way Dirty Harry Reid kept his job.

>>130969949
It's hard to get a local reading on Trump sentiment, but my general sense is that the vast majority of his support base has not given up hope, and is willing to forgive some of the more questionable bits like the tomahawk attack in Syria if things go well in the long run.

Unless there are structural changes like factoring out whatever amount of fraud there was (I'm pretty sure Trump won by quite a bit more than the official numbers in PA -- just doesn't add up), or some other such thing, then the question is probably going to be much more about capturing more of the default-blue vote than worrying about his base. If the democrats continue to go extra crazy, this could be easier than it seems. There are a tremendous amount of old fashioned common sense democrats here.

Assuming Trump doesn't turn out to be a giant mistake, I would suggest a focus on turning more seats here red, or keeping them red, and making a bit of a public show of it. And I'm not saying that as a republican or because I like republicans at all. But the more that turns the party toward Trump and away from least-worst people (Pat Toomie, for instance, is tolerated but not liked) should be helpful.

>>130970052
>>130971826
Interesting perspective, but it's hard to see the political future 3 years out. It also depends on how the DNC civil war shapes up and who gets nominated in 2020.

>>130971239
Oh that makes sense.

>>130972272
Well, again, not that I'm pro-republican, but it just makes plain sense to expose the outrageous corruption in the government and Clinton machine. That was a yuge selling point for the Trump campaign. If that does happen, it would do much to discredit whoever Trump will be running against, or at least force the democrats to run somebody worth voting for.

Bernie was pretty huge here. He would have taken PA by storm. Depending on who he were up against, I would have even given him a thought, even though I don't particularly think he'd have been a "good" pick.

>>130969949
The Dems will bus blacks down from Harlem if need be to get PA back after how hard they pushed the narrative that it can never flip red again before getting blown out by the Amish.

Colorado is not a swing state. its solid blue since the coasties have all moved here and there's a growing mexican population, and plenty of illegals to boot

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We will have the same picture as last election. Meaning

Solidish Blue States

>Virginia
>Main (large district)
>New Mexico
>Colorado

Leaning Blue States

>Nevada
>Minnesota

Swing States

>Florida
>New Hampshire
>Pennsylvania
>Michigan
>Wisconsin

Leaning Red States

>North Carolina
>Iowa

Solidish Red States

>Indiana
>Georgia
>Arizona
>Ohio

All other states should be obvious

>>130974381
Move Arizona to lean red and that's accurate

We could help you if you make us state ;)

>>130974905
>spics that can barely speak english
No thanks, we would have just made all illegals citizens and opened the border with Mexico if we wanted that.

>>130975148
But we can already cross interstate without any problems.

Besides are you implying there are not other states with a secondary language?

>>130974829
>>130974381
After a bit of thought there are some other changes I'd like to add there based on migration trends:
Move Georgia into leans red territory and NC into tossup. Massive migration of younger generations to SC, FLA, GA and NC will move them blue sooner rather than later, at the expense of the rust belt states, which is why I say put Iowa solidish red and Wisconsin as leans red, as well as Minnesota a tossup. Finally, I think you need to add a few more states into play here. Texas for one is trending blue. I'd put it at leans red at worst for the GOP and solidish red at best. Maine should also be tossup given the migration patterns out of the Northeast, which leads me to also put Connecticut and Illinois in solidish blue territory. Arizona also goes to tossup tbqh, given how close it is and the migration.

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>>130974905
PAY DENBTS

>>130976266
If Detroit pays it.

>>130975291
But you don't have representatives and senators yet. If you get them, that'll be 3 guaranteed Democrats in Congress and 3 deep blue electoral votes.

>>130977163
Thats bullshit. Puerto Rico is more than 76% christian/catholic. Any southern republican bible thumper can win here easily.

>>130977443
So is Mexico.

>>130977782
And Mexico doesnt have a republican or democratic party. What's your point?

>>130967314

Texas is a meme. It's done for.

RIP you secessionist bastards.

>>130978256
It would be straight democrat if it ever joined the US, along with a whole host of other problems.

I think my state will go back to being blue.

>>130978629
It wouldn't. Like I explained, latinos in general are not very progressive. A democrat as they stand now would never win here unless he was a center-right democrat.

As to problems, its really less for you. Even if you are a stormfag scumbag. Right now we can move within states without any problems. If we were a state, most puertorricans that emigrate would return here. Plus, you can sell Puerto Rico as a nice destination for beaners to come instead of pestering mainland states. All you would have to do is that for condition of statehood, Puerto Rico can reduce its debt to at least 25%. Since its in the Caribbean its on a strategic position for business and you can keep an eye on Cuba.

Everybody wins. You get less latinos and we keep things more or less the same here.

>>130979242
>gibs

>>130979593
On a much lesser level than most southern states. Things are much cheaper here.

>>130979841
Would your country's cost of living be completely fucked if you became a state? Imagine all the burgers who slink down there for low cost of living. Then vote for gibs haha. But seriously, I am asking how it would affect you financially.

>>130973626
MASSIVE inflation though. Colorado Springs is growing very rapidly and is staunchly conservative. Denver housing prices will soon stem the tide of incoming dems, it'll be almost expensive as a coastal city soon, next big liberal migration to a red state might, unfortunately, be Montana or Wyoming. Lots of Denver Dems fleeing for Jackson and Billings.

>>130980068
If you burgers dont fuck it up twith stupids laws (like minimum wage) and ease regulations here (at least to compete fairly with other caribbean neighbors) then it won't affect in a negative way.

>>130980178
I always thought it would be good for more states to have Colorado-style weed laws. Seems like it's not good for demographics to be such a hot destination for stoners.

Remove the voting illegals and most of the map is red. Problem solved.

>>130967314
Doesn't matter, Trump will inevitably lose to the candidate the Democrats put up.

>>130980388
OF COURSE WE WOULD AHAHAHAHAHAHA DONT DO IT
Seriously mang, you open up them borders and bleeding hearts will be down there in an instant messing yo shit up. Especially health care, which I've heard is much cheaper.

>>130980657
Fixing the voting system should be a priority. And I've never talked to anybody from any party, pro-Trump, anti-Trump, who doesn't want to be able to trust the system.

Only mentally ill people who equate it with racism disagree.

>>130980178
In your opinion, what states will be affected least or much later on? I want to move somewhere that's over 95% white. Not just the town, but the county and surrounding counties. When I go anywhere except a major city to use the airport, I want it to be nearly only white people. I have accepted I must go somewhere colder and probably higher elevation where people have to do a little more work to be comfortable. I don't think I mind a mormon area, because I'm not very social anyway. I just want people to not be liberal degenerate freaks or animalistic shitskins.

>>130967314
California has the grass roots of a republican uprising. They did 30% for Trump and I know a lot of MAGAs who didn't vote.
If the Repubs really wanted to they could swing California.

>>130981048
Yes but that would only bring business. That's not a negative for us, although its not like gringos aren't doing that right now. Its called medical tourism. We receive a good quantity of burgers that come here to get procedures done, as well as other virgin islands.

That doesn't change with statehood.

>>130981327
Of course it should. Deport illegals, voter id, no more welfare. 3 pieces of legislation and in 10 years we will have America back.

>>130982268
We'll always need some form of social safety net, and in particular the bread line cards will be important to keep from social disorder (if we think we can avoid that) but otherwise

FUND IT

>>130979242
>Like I explained, latinos in general are not very progressive.

He says as Latinos have become another brick and mortar bloc for the Democrats.

>>130970665
Only if the D is black.

>>130970052
>>130970052
>Unless Trump winds up really sucking, he should retain most or all of his voterbase.

The problem is not Trump retaining his voterbase, this is a given really. The issue is Democrat turnout, especially among millenials/blacks, was very low in 2016. Trump only gained a few 10,000-20,000 votes in each state vs. Romney 2012, while Hillary lost 100,000-300,000 votes vs. Obama 2012.

Democrat turnout will be a big issue, unless Trump can turn out or convert more whites to his side. Our elections are becoming more and more clear cut among racial lines / age lines, ever since 2000.

>>130984345
Things like the Soros machine need to be exposed and taken apart anyway. Is that the best the democrats have to offer? Did it ever help the minorities beyond gibs? Will Trump be able to do a better job for them?

Trump/Romney and Hillary/Obama aren't very good analogies in my opinion, even though you would want to look at such things in a statistical analysis. But Trump won and Hillary lost on the fundamentals, to borrow a financial terminology.

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Texas and georgia are going to be compatible at one point in the future. It's inevitable with the influx of hispanics

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>>130967314
>Will the midwest continue to redden while the southwest becomes more blue? Texas could be blue within three election cycles.
Not yet. Check the totals.
Trump was made good grounds in OH, IA and NC where I believe he'll easily win in 2020.
FL and WI are also looking increasingly Republican.
AZ is slowly turning blue but not before 2024. PA and MI are both toss-ups.
>>130969623
Unlikely.

>>130985165
IA/MN/WI/OH/PA will be all hard red before GA turns blue. AZ and NV are turning blue earlier. FL and NC still have enough whites and white influx to easily become red states.
Texas is not turning blue before 2036 or later based on current models.

>>130982718
That's because latinos in the mainland don't care about nationalism, or values. They just care about gibs. Puertorrican included sadly.

But in the island is different, we're not gonna vote for a progressive that is gonna screw us up worst with taxes, plus working people already hate welfare people enough to keep maintaining them.

>>130967314
We were extremely fortunate we managed to win 2016 but idk how much more we can win. It rly depends a lot on the 2018 election but I think that was our last stand and 2020 can't be won.

>>130967314
Colorado is lean blue now. Just there and heard all sorts of Dems whining about muh trump and shit.

>>130986233
Fuck off concern troll.
2018 we basically cannot lose control of the House nor the Senate.
2020 we can easily win again due to white movement to the Republican party (that started in 2014 btw, not 2016) and the decreased black turnout.

>>130986457
>dont get more than 60 seats in senate
>nothing gets done
>screw the establishment

>>130986770
A lot of shit (like the budget etc) can be done without even needing 60 votes and in the worst case, they can easily abolish the filibuster and just rush their laws. 2018 looks very, very favourable to Republicans so I think they may even get their 60 votes.

>>130986770
Ds can still continue their current trajectory of meltdown, though. They're going to go hard for 2018 but at this rate they're going to fuck it up even if it's a fight.

I'd rate it above average Trump does 2 terms if he wants to unless something goes really crazy. And by really crazy I mean more than just the crazy we can expect by 2018 or so when the various tensions are already built and the system is ready to start pulling plugs.

>>130987039
which states are voting and whats the political climate like in them?

>>130967314
How close was Cali?

>>130981455
Maine is the only state that's even close to 95% white.
Outside Portland or college towns it's near 100% white, but the churches and democrats are flooding portland with Somalis to fuck up the demographics permanently

>>130987039
Yeah but how is any of that going to solve the problem of republicans not having a god damn spine?

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>>130981455
Maine is the only state that's even close to 95% white.
Outside Portland or college towns it's near 100% white, but the churches and democrats are flooding portland with Somalis to fuck up the demographics permanently..

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>>130987184
Senate:
FL, WI, MT, ND, AZ, MO, ID, OH, WV: Controlled by Republicans, probable Republican win in most of them.
Only seat we could lose is Nevada.

>>130974381
Virginia was close to turning red this election, they're not a safe blue.

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>>130987404
They are getting one. Slowly, but surely.
>>130987424
Won't be enough to turn you into a non-white state just yet.
>>130987184
House. See pic related. How can Republicans lose? Democrats would have to flip everything.

>>130967314
>Nevada... moved notably to the right
A return to normalcy. We were super red until a massive wave of Californians moved in during the 90's

>>130987649
House is def not a problem but I worry for the senate. There are also some troublesome senators (McCain etc)

>>130988199
McCain is not up for reelection and he votes mostly party line anyway.
The other guy is a cuckservative too so I don't really worry about him either.

>>130987148

There is not a realistic chance that Trump does 2 terms.

The GOP has to be churning out better fucking representatives for their presidential candidacy. If not, Democrats will crush them. Trump is historically one of the most disapproved presidents...ever. He barely won the last election against Hilary Clinton, and probably only won because of his anti-establishment shtick from displaced Bernie voters.

>>130988328
>There is not a realistic chance that Trump does 2 terms.
The chances are better that he wins than that he does not win.
>The GOP has to be churning out better fucking representatives for their presidential candidacy. If not, Democrats will crush them.
Trump proved to be a viable president who turns out exactly the right people in the right places and even the voters he turned off are coming back slowly (see GA06).
>Trump is historically one of the most disapproved presidents...ever.
Not ever. And considering his approval among likely voters is basically split, he does have extremely good chances). Also, approval ratings don't mean shit when Obama lost practically everything (House, Senate, Govships) when he was president.
>He barely won the last election against Hilary Clinton, and probably only won because of his anti-establishment shtick from displaced Bernie voters.
That was not barely at all. Higher margin in Florida than Bush in both times, better margins in NC than Romney, won bigly in WI, PA and slightly in MI.

I rate his chances 70%.

>>130988697
who will the dems likely put up in 2020? I heard something about someone from Obama's cabinet

>>130988328
Much depends on how much both parties continue meltdown trajectory and what the world looks like in 2020. I predict a wild ride.

But if Trump is still alive, pulls it out, and goes for another term, I stand by my prediction. I will say I won't be surprised if he steps aside if a real republican replacement emerges and hands it over. But at this point the party is in such well-deserved disarray that it's difficult to imagine how that might shape up. I have always imagined that one possible outcome is basically break down destruction of the republicans.

>>130988908
That's a good question. Basically anyone who will run against Trump will receive a higher approval than him initially but still has extremely high chances to lose due to where the voters live and how niggers turn out. If they don't run Obama again (they can't), they won't stand a chance.

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>>130967314
>Hillary actually made up some ground in Texas and Arizona.

Wait til that wall goes up and we deport the shitskins and see what happens.

>>130989025
>But at this point the party is in such well-deserved disarray that it's difficult to imagine how that might shape up. I have always imagined that one possible outcome is basically break down destruction of the republicans.
People have been saying how the "Republicans are in disarray" when it absolutely isn't true. Sure, they don't like Trump, but they still do what he tells them to as long as he brings them wins (which he does, see the last 4 races). And as of now, Republicans also have received the highest donations since a long while. They will not go against Trump and in exchange Trump allows them to pass some of their shit which their donors pay them to.
Anyone who actually believes the Republicans are soul-searching or that the Democrats will actually allow the socialists to take over is mentally challenged.

>>130989271
Hillary only received an additional 300k voters (since 2008) compared to Trump's 200k so that's why the margin fell from 12 to 9%. But Texas is still far away from turning blue since Trump did win by more than 800k votes.

>>130989417
I don't see Republican soul-searching or a big lack in support for the party (at least not just yet) but everybody I've spoken to is pretty quick to observe that Trump is having to fight his own party. Don't forget how big a row there was over cuckservatives during the campaign. They're fighting tooth and nail to keep their agenda going.

The Trotskyites never give up.

>>130989691
>I don't see Republican soul-searching or a big lack in support for the party (at least not just yet) but everybody I've spoken to is pretty quick to observe that Trump is having to fight his own party. Don't forget how big a row there was over cuckservatives during the campaign. They're fighting tooth and nail to keep their agenda going.
Cuckservatives are certainly playing a role in delaying Trump's stuff but I don't see them keeping this up for long. If they don't deliver by the end of 2017, they will be mercilessly primaried.

>be me
>live in NYC
>blue stronghold
>why even vote

>>130990135
Vote from the rooftops

>>130990135
Vote for the popular vote.

>>130990352
That what I did as a NYCfag

>>130990511
Good.

>>130967314
Hilldog only made ground in those places because "drumpf aint a true Christian Cuckservative, and i aint think he a man of gawd"

>>130990022
>they will be mercilessly primaried.
That's what I'm hoping for. I'd even consider registering as a republican to help.

A lot of them were pretty firm in wanting to throw it to Hillary rather than let Trump in back in the day, and it's been very interesting to see who has picked which camp when, who has tried to play both sides, etc. Ideally, they'll be smart enough to hang on to Trump for the time being, but who knows.

I was mildly surprised the powers that be didn't just sort of go along with Trump as a bump in the road and then resume afterward. There are probably reasons why not that I don't know about. But one of the important components is the "global political awakening" Zbigniew Brzezinski described. By 2018/2020, there will be even more people who are more politically sophisticated, and who won't be as likely to fall for the same old lines.

I expect part of the democrat strategy is to try to capitalize as hard as possible on the zombie hordes by continuing to double down on basically an alternate reality. But I think that's probably likely to break down before long as the system always eats itself and they need to use it for destabilization as much as for unification for votes.

>>130990215
tf does this mean

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Once demographics change, even in the next few years, most swing states and even major red states will go blue. White people won Trump the election, but white people will become less and less relevant electorally.

We can't win this with votes. We need to go full fash

>>130984345

It's really too early to tell about Dem turnout for sure. Have to take into account that the Shock and Don effect might only last so long, and that their voters might be demoralized if the DNC never gets its act together. The harsher they go with the identity politics, the more people they are going to alienate. Less minorities voted for Hillary than Obama, and Trump's Latino vote share was like 7, 8% higher than Romney, despite Romney sucking their dicks.

>>130990782
Oh, that's right
Jew Yorkers aren't allowed to own guns

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>>130990804
There literally is no point in voting Republican anyway. They are still kike-controlled and achieve nothing and make nothing better. They are fucking shit. Don't vote for any of them.

>>130990686
>That's what I'm hoping for. I'd even consider registering as a republican to help.
It doesn't hurt to register if you live in a swing or solid red district. If you live in a blue one, register as a Dem to vote in their primaries.
>I expect part of the democrat strategy is to try to capitalize as hard as possible on the zombie hordes by continuing to double down on basically an alternate reality. But I think that's probably likely to break down before long as the system always eats itself and they need to use it for destabilization as much as for unification for votes.
Democrats are nothing without positive messages. Obama brought it and he won handily, Clinton just hated on Trump and got crushed mercilessly. Unless they bring Obama back (they can't), they won't be winning any more races.

>>130990903
Work for a TBTF bank and you can get a permit.

>>130990135
I thought i lived far enough away in the suburbs from my city so that my vote would count. Tfw im still in a cucked county

>>130990982
I would have to give up valuable shitposting time to register. Might as well wait and see how the primaries begin to shape up.

I neglected to help primary Trump in because it was obvious by that point he had it locked up and I was busy.

NH is going red next election.

30,000 people voted for Gary Johnson. Trump lost by like 500 votes. A lot of people I know voted for GJ, but are now fully behind trump.

>>130990804
Only a few red states are really affected by demographic changes (AZ, TX, GA, FL, NC) and in NC and Florida, there are still more than enough whites (and Cubans) left to move to the right to form a solid red state, while in TX and GA, it all depends on the white, Hispanic and black vote. Whites voting 70-75% Republican, Hispanics 30-40% and blacks 20-25% is enough to keep states red for a very long time.
>>130991179
Doing good's work anon. We need conservatives that care about immigration issues while not being religious nuts and we got that with Trump (and he even kept the religious nut voter base because they hate the Dems).
>>130991249
Hopefully.

>>130991101
Is NY not done by popular vote? It's been a while since I voted there.

>>130988199
McCain & Graham, while being top tier cucks are not the issue, they vote with the party 99% of the time.

Collins, Murkowski might as well have (D) to their names and Paul is like a 16 yo with his purity crap

>>130991417
Those are some fucking huge and important red states that would be impacted.

Republicans are trash anyway and are not the solution, they will only fuck us up more just like the Democrats.

>>130991002
If you lived in a free state you can just go and buy a fucking gun

>>130991610
>tfw don't live in NY anymore

True story one of my buddies from NY recently moved to a free state. One of the first things he did was go buy a gun because it was just that easy.

>>130991608
Everything but TX and FL are expandable. And NC Hispanics are voting like 40% Republican. If blacks continue to go more to the Republican party, the South will be red for a very, very long time.
>Republicans are trash anyway and are not the solution, they will only fuck us up more just like the Democrats.
Not saying the Republicans are good, but for now they are better than the Democrats by a large margin and that's why we need to keep them around.

>>130967314
AZ will be blue. It's gentrifying hard and more boomer retirees die every year. The Sedona hipster liberal arts crowd will rule the state in a few decades.

Texas will eventually go blue due to immigration and shifting demographics. This will likely not be for another generation though.

WV is liable to flip back to blue depending on the candidate.

Florida will likely remain a swing state.

Another important thing to note: Population will shift blue at first but electoral votes won't. Hillary was an awful candidate yet she still managed to win the popular vote by a comfortable margin. In the future the popular vote will be even bluer - Republicans will have to rely on strategic districting (see also: Gerrymandering) and specialized campaigns to target the right areas in order to win. This is why Trump was able to win, he courted specific states and got to 270 that way - 50 state strategy is not feasible for Republicans, they're too divisive.

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>>130991867
Why the fuck would we WANT Hispanics on our side? They aren't us, they aren't our people, and they will continue fucking our country up. We don't want them to "vote Republican", we want them GONE! A Republican Party that gets a large percent of the Hispanic vote is an obvious sign that they are cucked.

Also, lets see what the Republicans have done for us with The Presidency and both Houses of Congress

>continued jew wars in the Middle East
>have done nothing to stop our "legal" immigration system
>cucked themselves on "DREAMers"
>have done fucking nothing

Republicans need to be gassed

>>130991931
>AZ will be blue. It's gentrifying hard and more boomer retirees die every year. The Sedona hipster liberal arts crowd will rule the state in a few decades.
AZ not before 2024.
>Texas will eventually go blue due to immigration and shifting demographics. This will likely not be for another generation though.
Will take at least 25-30 years before TX flips blue. Not just the 70+ people supporting Trump there but basically everyone 40+.
>WV is liable to flip back to blue depending on the candidate.
Kek.
>Florida will likely remain a swing state.
Whites and Cubans are shifting to the right and they make up 2/3 of all voters together.

>>130967314
To be fair, seing how this shit is going on, it will be the same as in 2016, except for PA going blue (because the right wing won't be as mobilized as before).

Also, Trump might win MN and NH.

>>130992249
>Why the fuck would we WANT Hispanics on our side? They aren't us, they aren't our people, and they will continue fucking our country up. We don't want them to "vote Republican", we want them GONE! A Republican Party that gets a large percent of the Hispanic vote is an obvious sign that they are cucked.
We're not getting rid of them for a long time to come and since they are still a growing group, we need to get them to vote Republican in sufficient numbers. Even 40% would be more than enough for most states.
>continued jew wars in the Middle East
Can't stop them easily.
>have done nothing to stop our "legal" immigration system
There is actually a bill introduced by the Republicans and supported by Trump that will cut legal immigration by half
>cucked themselves on "DREAMers"
Will run out in 2018 and they don't even make up 5% of all illegals. Priorities anon, priorities.
>have done fucking nothing
Tripled the numbers of ICE agents and turned some shitty fences in Texas to full blown barriers for the time being.

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As the left continues to racialize our politics, "white" is becoming synonymous with "republican" and "minority" with "democrat." Seeing as demographic trends put the US white population at less than 50% by 2043, that does not bode well for the GOP.

>>130970665
We went further to the right in 2016 than 2012. If we had voter ID laws we'd be safe light red.

>>130992249
That's the point mate. Either the R party shapes up to deliver on what people actually want or it's not going to go so well for them. If they keep up the BS then they're left with being not as crazy as the D party for the swing voters.

They have 2018 and 2020 to show the voters whether they want to keep power or give it away.

>>130992666
>To be fair, seing how this shit is going on, it will be the same as in 2016, except for PA going blue (because the right wing won't be as mobilized as before).
Why would the right wing not be as mobilized anymore? You do realize that PA going red started with Toomey, right? It's not just a single occurence. MI is far more likely to swing back blue, WI and PA, not so much.
>Also, Trump might win MN and NH.
NH probably, not sure about MN.

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>We're not getting rid of them for a long time to come and since they are still a growing group

KEKED

>>130992710
Actually, the current Census is increasing the year where whites are becoming a minority further back each time due to rapidly decreasing non-white birth rates and more Asian immigration than Hispanic one (Asians have lower birth rates than whites).

>>130992768
Most white male normies will vote for Republicans no matter what, even if they don't deliver fucking shit. You pretty much have to look at the past 60 years to realize this.

That's why democracy is fucking fail and nothing will be solved within our system

>>130992384
>AZ not before 2024.
Yeah I can agree with that.
>Will take at least 25-30 years before TX flips blue.
Right, so a generation like I said.
>Kek.
People there voted out of desperation. Make no mistake, WV isn't Republican, it's populist. If the Democrats run a convincing pre-worker populist candidate and there are a sufficient number of voters that feel burned by Trump, they will go blue. Until their economy isn't in shambles anymore, they have no loyalties.
>Whites and Cubans are shifting to the right and they make up 2/3 of all voters together.
First, there's no telling if this trend will last, and second, many Florida voters are immigrants from other, bluer states, so I'm not convinced FL is "safe" just yet. It could be like reverse-TX and become safe red within the next generation though.

>>130992971
Got a source for that? Curious because I read about this not too long ago

>>130992814
Nobody actually likes Toomey. He was just better than the alternative. That's like wondering if Romney is a good predictor of Trump. PA is solidly up for grabs depending on how both parties play it.

>>130993018
Very true. But that doesn't mean there aren't a lot of people sitting at home, young voters, people who vote for the least evil, people who would rather lodge a 3rd party protest vote. Look at any thread on 4chan about elections and see how many people don't know how to chose between shit and crap.

>>130976266
Paint it red lil'donny

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>>130992688
checked for BASED BEANERS and the end of the (((democrats))) and hitler digits

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>>130993020
>Right, so a generation like I said.
At the very least.
>People there voted out of desperation. Make no mistake, WV isn't Republican, it's populist. If the Democrats run a convincing pre-worker populist candidate and there are a sufficient number of voters that feel burned by Trump, they will go blue. Until their economy isn't in shambles anymore, they have no loyalties.
How high are the chances the Democrats start pandering to workers again? Not so much.
And WV didn't even vote for Obama.
>First, there's no telling if this trend will last, and second, many Florida voters are immigrants from other, bluer states, so I'm not convinced FL is "safe" just yet.
It's not safe, but the state is getting increasingly Republican lately, with the state congress being red.
>It could be like reverse-TX and become safe red within the next generation though.
Hopefully.
>>130993185
You mean for the Census or the decreasing non-white birth rates?

>>130993238
>Nobody actually likes Toomey. He was just better than the alternative. That's like wondering if Romney is a good predictor of Trump. PA is solidly up for grabs depending on how both parties play it.
We both know all too well that Democrats won't be sending out the Bernie wing because he does not bode well with their donors. My prediction is that the Dems lose 8-9 Senate seats, win back 10 seats in the House and call that a victory for the resistance.
>>130993332
It's like you don't know how to win.

>>130993335
>You mean for the Census or the decreasing non-white birth rates?
Both, I suppose. For the date of the white majority being pushed back

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>>130993533
I'd have to look up past Census records but here is the latest pew research data for 2015 that shows that the white minority will not occur in 2043 but somewhere in the early 2050's.

>>130993335
>that Native American birth rate
Christ, if it continues on that trend the native pop will halve with each generation. RIP injuns

>>130993494
>Democrats won't be sending out the Bernie wing because he does not bode well with their donors.
I agree with your prediction, but that would be an obvious weak point, particularly if the Clinton machine continues to turn toxic to the point that the party starts to fracture and more jump ship. I don't think it's quite as Leninist as it appears to be anymore.

And that means if we want to keep the Trump Train going (which I would like to do at this point) then the R party needs to get out in front and make sure they're making people happy and backing candidates people want more than somebody positioning as a #NotAllDemocrats populist. I can't tell you how many times Toomey came up in PA threads leading up to the election -- voting him back in or not was the most popular issue, and there was always a significant voice for kicking him out even though it might not be strategic.

>>130993834
Interesting. All speculative really. Relies on trends being maintained and so on

>>130994084
Demographics are not set on stone. Let the Hispanic and black birth rate fall further and the might be more white babies than white seniors in the future.

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>>130993834

>>130994301
That only shows the county levels, but not the numbers.

>>130994200
It's interesting to observe birth rates as a global phenomenon. The higher the standard of living, the less children are had. I'd guess that integration of ethnic minorities drives their birth rates down, so the demographics only change drastically with the immigrants being accepted into the country

>>130994479
Indeed. This is age 0-4 too I should say. However these numbers don't bode well even if we can't necessarily see them. I'm going off Brookings edu data btw

https://www.brookings.edu/interactives/diversity-explosion-the-cultural-generation-gap-mapped/

>>130994550
Also has a lot to do with the economy. Bush's housing policy made non-whites more happy to breed.

>>130994550
But that can tip violently when you bring in a very different culture, like Islam, where a single generation of cranking out huge families might not be predicted very well with models trained on local history.

>>130994742
I agree. That's a group that takes longer to integrate (by and large). Seems that way for south asians and middle easterners

>>130994665
Sure, it's not great or even good by any measure, but we still have enough whites left to breed a new generation.

>>130994858
This is entirely anecdotal, but if my track record of noticing trend shifts is worth anything, I have never seen so many young couples holding hands in public and acting like lovebirds as the big Chinese influx over the past few years.

Obviously, different cultures will have different public displays, but I sure don't see very many whites acting like couples at a traditional marriage and breeding age. I would call it something to watch out for.

>>130967314
Unless dems run hillary fucking clinton again, I can't see trump winning a second term. Dems are going to be voting in droves if he tries. Republicans need to field someone else for 2020 if they expect to keep the white house.

>>130977443
>trusting a mean bean welfare queen
nope

>>130995119
What can they do next time that they didn't do in 2016? They did literally everything possible to stop him. The best thing they can do is not pick a corporate shill, and we all know they will.

>>130995097
Where do you live? Might be nice to see if your anecdotal evidence holds true in your state/county.

>>130994863
I don't think the US is going to last beyond the century. I don't think most of the world will make it past the century. We have enough whites sure but when will they vote as a solid group. I'm just saying white guilt is powerful.

>>130979242
beaners will always vote in their immediate self interest for gibs and competitive advantages before they vote on social abstractions. you're fly by night thieves and you're not fooling anybody with that social conservatism shit. we are done listening to the cuckservative "natural conservatives" meme, we see you.

>>130995119
Yeah but who do they have? Did you see the 16 other clowns they ran? Unless Trump manages to fuck it up very bigly, they'd be throwing away the only decent branding they have.

>>130995119
>Unless dems run hillary fucking clinton again, I can't see trump winning a second term.
Just like they did in 2016 against literally Hitler, right? :^)
>Republicans need to field someone else for 2020 if they expect to keep the white house.
Stop being retarded anon. Even if they sent in Jesus, the Democrats and media will make him as hated as Trump with Dems.
Trump has the best chances due to incubant effect.

>>130995480
>We have enough whites sure but when will they vote as a solid group. I'm just saying white guilt is powerful.
Getting them to vote 70% Republican would already be enough. Hell, 60% Republican nationwide but 70-90% in keystates would be enough.

>>130995481
This. Latinos are not a very reliable voter base. Neoconservatives were wrong about them. The best thing we can do is lower their birth rate and pray to god local cucks get them to straight ticket vote populists upballot.

>>130995365
Western PA. It's not clear how many of these lovebirds will wind up making babies, how long they'll wait, or how many they'll have. But I've already seen them with strollers and stuff, and they tend to also be seen with their parents, confirming the family-centric culture you tend to find among Asians.

>>130995649
>70-90 in key states
The thing is even if we get them to vote in line with nationalist or conservative interests will it be enough in the future. Trump needs to start curbing all forms of immigration. We need to stop this country from becoming majority minority and reverse the trend

>>130996011
I just checked anon, the only significant Asian population Western PA has are concentrated in Pittsburgh and there they have even less children than whites.
Same goes for Philly and practically every county other than Chester.
>>130996094
>Trump needs to start curbing all forms of immigration.
All bill for that has been introduced in the House.

>>130996440
http://www.marchofdimes.org/Peristats/ViewSummary.aspx?reg=04&stop=60

Here you can do this for all states BTw it's just on AZ right now

>>130996440
How current are your stats? Things are changing with increasing intensity over the last few years. Now combine that with the big retired population that is going to be dying off in a similar timeframe.

I expect a great many will go NEET or childless as long as free money from their parents keeps up, but it's a potential worth keeping in mind from a geopolitical perspective.

>>130996730
Thanks, I already know of marchofdimes but their statistics are merely based on how many births each race/ethnicity gives, not how many of these children are mixes.
>>130996870
As recent as 2013.
>Now combine that with the big retired population that is going to be dying off in a similar timeframe.
As long as you don't live in Eastern PA, you barely lose 2% of whiteness every two generations.
>I expect a great many will go NEET or childless as long as free money from their parents keeps up, but it's a potential worth keeping in mind from a geopolitical perspective.
Do you not realize that these things are also affecting Asians and Hispanics by the same if not a greater margin?

>>130988328
>his still believes approval ratings matter

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>>130967314

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In the raw numbers CA will be a swing state by 2020, however Jerry brown has gone full communist, he will never allow it to go red. Even with trumps deportation of half the CA voting block.
While trump only got something like 40%.

>>130997195
>>130997243
Trump only won about 34% of the vote in CA and the state is getting increasingly less white/more spicified. Oregon and Washington will turn red before CA ever does.

If you neutralize Los Angeles and San Francisco with voter ID laws California could darn well swing red

>>130997119
Yeah 2013 is way too old. Demographic analyses these days really need to be recent because places of intense immigration change too rapidly. That's part of the plan for upsetting really the entire Western world is to force a big sudden change that nobody will really notice until its too late.

Pack enough Chinese in to a single area with a good life and increasing Westernization, and they'll be at replacement rate pretty quick.

>>130967314
>future swing states
Puerto Rico?

>>130969446
XDDD MAGA BRO

>>130991931
>This will likely not be for another generation though.
A civil war will happen before then.

>>130974381
Indiana is 100% red you double faggot, not "solidish."

>>130997659
http://www.marchofdimes.org/Peristats/ViewSubtopic.aspx?reg=42&top=2&stop=4&lev=1&obj=1&cmp=&slev=4&sty=&eny=&chy=20122014

Check the trends. The Asian and Hispanic birth rate is actually going down, not up.
And as Canada, LA, ... have proven, the Chinese are shitty at producing babies.

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>>130997243
Do you really believe this?

>>130985919
This. The Midwest is quickly becoming right wing, largely for racial reasons, as well as some Rust Belt issues. If a NSAWP is going to happen, it's going to happen in the IA, WI, MN tristate area.

>>130988328
>Trump will lose. It's obvious by the polls.

>>130998116
We'll see. Not enough Hispanics near me to gauge by birthrate, but I find it worrisome how much they've expanded through NY (half the NYC radio stations play techno-salsa now, and there's even MS-13 helping run drugs without the locals even knowing about it yet).

Similarly, if you just keep chucking in enough Chinese, birthrate alone might not be the only thing to look at.

Like I said, something to keep an eye on.

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I think this is the best possible outcome for a Republican candidate; i.e states that will never go red under any circumstances.

>>130998801
>Similarly, if you just keep chucking in enough Chinese, birthrate alone might not be the only thing to look at.
Asians are getting imported en masse but they just have too low birth rates to really matter.

>>130998873
add rhode island and remove jersey.

>>130998534
IA and WI are only recently uncucked states and MN isn't even there yet.

Indiana plus the Great Plains and Missouri get to call the shots in regards to who's truly redpilled in the Midwest.

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>>130967314

>>131000032
That's a dishonest map, anon.

>>131000032
As much as I love shitting on democrats and there is absolutely a correlation between violent crime and voting democrat, that second map is just the 2012 election map. New England wouldn't be smothered in blue otherwise.

>>131000032
Fake news.

>>130967314
>Hillary actually made up some ground in Texas
That's because Texas is becoming more and more overrun by illegal spics

>>130993020
so tired of the "le based cuban" meme

miami-dade 63% clinton
broward 66% clinton
palm beach 56% clinton

>>130967314
When 2020 rolls around, that map will probably look like Obama's 2012 run.

>>131002388
You mean all red?