Will carbon ever truly replace steel and aluminium and the meme

It already has.

>>1028708
damn that bike looks FAST

>>1028708
No, no, and no, in that order.
All these frame materials have their place. Carbon fiber is not the end-all, be-all of bike frames, they'll always be more expensive and a harder material to work with. Steel and aluminum are easier to fabricate with, and more recent developments in manufacturing techniques have improved their ride characteristics significantly. Titanium has a particular mix of stiffness and lightness that isn't quite like any of the above. All the above have different ride qualities and characteristics. You won't see any of them completely disappear anytime soon.

The way carbon fails scares the hell out of me

>>1028708
No.
1) Carbon will never be cheaper than steel or aluminum at a given quality level.

Forming, cutting, and welding metal tubing are easily automated processes. Taiwanese factories crank out steel and aluminum bikes by the thousands (and I wouldn't be surprised if titanium finally goes mainstream in a big way with the help of the Chinese - a friend of mine recently got a full-custom Ti frame from China for *startlingly* cheap).

There's simply too much hand-touch labor required for laying fabric into molds and it requires ridiculous capex in tooling if you want to produce in volume.

2) Carbon will never be as durable as steel or aluminum. They're not built to last. If they don't crack, eventually abrasion from road grit will wear through at the brake bridge or on the inside of the seatstays/chainstays. You'll never see someone serious about touring on a carbon bike. You'll never see hoards of college students tooling around on used $100 Craigslist carbon bikes. You know how we all meme about '90s MTBs? Ain't no one going to be memeing about '10s carbon MTBs a quarter century from now.

Bike built with metal tubing aren't going anywhere.

>>1028751
>a friend of mine recently got a full-custom Ti frame from China for *startlingly* cheap).

Any idea what they're called or a URL?

>>1028751
The only change I see possibly happening is fully automated polymer frame production making inroads on the low end. But we're nowhere near for the conditions for that to make sense.

>>1028751
Source on the ti bike seller?

>>1028766
>>1028771

Not him, but I found this
http://ti-bike.com/TitaniumShow.asp?cls=1&id=2

>>1028708
Truly as in completely?
No.
Truly as in in majority of cases?
Not unless it's cheap and doesn't explode.

>>1028751
The thing about China is you can get virtually anything for cheap there.
Quality wise as well.

>>1028708
Once carbon can be bought at Wal-Mart for a pittance, sure.

Cheap BSO carbon is when we can start seeing metal on even terms. If metal shortages ever happen then we may even see carbon become the CHEAPER option.

>>1028751
aluminium is known to have terrible fatigue life

>>1028733
Yeah, me too, but to be fair it only happens if you buy from a sketchy dealer or do something stupid like ride it after a crash.

>>1028823
No its not, it has no fatigue *limit*, which means it will continue to weaken until it's basically butter. It takes decades of normal use for that to happen, though. Even for it to surpass the fatigue limit of steel or titanium.

>>1028823
It will last a few decades instead of your whole life. Big deal.

>>1028708
No
Shit steel is super cheap
6061 aluminium is cheap
7005 aluminium is a little more expensive but harder to weld
decent chromoly steel is coming back, as small frame builders are using it, as well as it can handle more weight than carbon, it's more comfortable over longer 100+ mile distances, it's easier to repair
Carbon will be a mainstay for people wanting the lightest possible frames, and for the average "high end" part of the market,
Titanium will never be mainstream in the slightest as it's expensive and hard to work with, but it'll always be around for people wanting something different and for people who want a bike which will last until their death,

>>1028708

It won't due to reliability. Watch this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-qsLYlVWkbQ

>>1028861
I've started seeing 6069 aluminium lately, how does it fare?

>>1028884
it's probably an alloy to get 7005 strength with 6061's ease of welding.
i'm not too sure as i've not really seen it around.

>>1028884
Kona uses 7046 for their frames,and rims often use 6063.
Heck I've had yoyo's that use 6082

>>1028885
I hope it's better than 6061. I had a frame made from pre-aged/stress relieved 6061 and the soft welds cracked on me. Is it true that alu welds are around 30% of the parent metal, is it specific to certain alloys?

Aluminum kind of. Steel and titanium no.

>>1029043
If the caad process is getting better (and I don't know if it will continue to get better) then alu and carbon are going to keep going head to head.

I don't own a Carbondale or anything Carbon so feel free to tell me exactly how wrong I am.

>>1028708
Titanium won't truly die because it will always fill the niche for high-end material custom stuff. Hard to make carbon custom frames.

Aluminum? not likely. Aluminum is pretty much always going to cheaper than carbon, and entry level bikes are always gonna be needed. and if the last few years taught us anything about aluminum, its that aluminum can seriously kick ass with bikes like the caad12 or allez sprint. Plus it strikes it right in the middle for durability and weight, perfect for light touring bikes.

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>>1028823
>hurr durr aluminum fatigue life is shit
Alright this needs to fucking die.

Materials like steel and titanium have what is called a fatigue limit - if the applied stress/load is below that threshold, you can cyclically load the part an infinite amount of times without the part failing due to fatigue. Aluminum does not have a fatigue limit - even at low loads, the part will *eventually* fatigue.

However, no steel bicycle frame is loaded so lightly that it's within the fatigue limit of the material. ALL STEEL BIKE FRAMES WILL EVENTUALLY FATIGUE AND CRACK IF RIDEN LONG ENOUGH. Fact of life.

>But look at that graph you posted the aluminum line is below the steel line hurr durr durr

That's a graph of # of cycles vs. stress, not vs. load. Stress is proportional to area. Aluminum is roughly 1/3 as dense as steel, but also has roughly 1/3 the elastic modulus, so in order to build a frame that's not as floppy as a wet noodle, larger diameter tubes and thicker tube walls are used. More cross sectional area = less stress for a given load! Most aluminum bike frames have EXCELLENT fatigue properties; you'll really only see failures on shit frames (at the welds, usually).

See http://www.sheldonbrown.com/rinard/frame_fatigue_test.htm for some real world frame fatigue testing.

>>1028847
>continue to weaken until it's basically butter.
Garbage. Fatigue does not change the stiffness/elastic modulus of a material in the slightest. Fatigue failure is due to microcracks forming and propagating until failure.

>>1028861
>>1028884
>>1028885
>>1028891
6000 series aluminum is characterized by relatively high amounts of silicon and magnesium. 7000 series aluminum has high % of zinc in the alloy. All alloys in each family are pretty much the same; subtly different alloys for different purposes.

>>1029062
CONTINUED

>>1028884
>>1028885
Yeah, 6069 is has roughly 30-40% higher ultimate and yield strength than 6061. The lack of zinc in the alloy makes it much easier to weld.

>>1028958
>Is it true that alu welds are around 30% of the parent metal, is it specific to certain alloys?

Wut.

The issue with welding aluminum is that you destroy the temper at the weld site. Generally the tubing will be butted (thicker walls at the ends) so there's more material (less stress) at the welds, but good manufacturers will re-heattreat the entire frame after welding. Cheap frames will always break at the welds.

>>1029055
Yep. Only the richest of the rich could pay for a custom mold that's going to be used *once*. Steel and titanium will always have a place in the high-end custom market.

http://www.canberratimes.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/should-there-be-a-safe-life-for-bicycle-parts-20161117-gss41s.html

on the other hand

>>1029084
Now I'm scared to ride my 90s road bike

>>1029064
>Yeah, 6069 is has roughly 30-40% higher ultimate and yield strength than 6061. The lack of zinc in the alloy makes it much easier to weld.
*much easier to weld than 7005. Not sure about how it welds relative to 6061, but presumably similarly.

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>>1029084
Holy shit, I know this is a very rare occurrence, but I don't think I'm every upgrading to garbon on any of my components.
I currently ride an aluminium frame with a newer "2016" Tiagra groupset. I inspect my frame, fork and handlebars regularly for cracks or any signs of fatigue.
Still, I was very close to meet my demise back in June 2015 much like that poor Australian dude did, except it was my handlebars and not the fork that failed out of the fucking blue.
It was a rather old, second (third? fourth, probably?) Cinelli alloy drop bar which decided to snap once day when I was riding to work. I wasn't going very fast, a little over 30 km/h if I recall correctly from my Strava ride log. To this day I have no idea how I managed to keep the rubber side up and keep myself from eating shit and probably being carried away for a ride to the coroner's office. I remember feeling a snap on my right hand and reaching for the stem after I noticed what just happened, I managed to brake with my left hand and reaching the curb. Then I stared at my broken handlebars (and right Campy Veloce brifter) for a couple minutes before calling a cab that would take me and my dead bike home so I could change and run back to the bus stop.

I still have the very same frame (it's pretty much intact since I didn't crash that time) paired with a brand new Easton drop bar.

TL;DR, somehow related to the OP's topic: my allow drop bar broke once and somehow I'm still here, how can I avoid this from happening again? Pic related, it's that Cinelli piece of shit.

>>1029097
learn to read
>Mr Stanton was killed after the alloy steering tube in his bicycle "unexpectedly and catastrophically failed" in January 2015

>>1029098
So what? Where did I ever imply that it was carbon or any other material? The fact that the fucking steering tube was made of alloy is what made me post this. As in, I'm worried that this happens again with my new drop bar. I'd also be terrified to upgrade to a carbon frame, handlebars or wheels. Shit, man, I know this is 4chan but you don't have to be an asshole.

>>1029100

You said
>Holy shit, I know this is a very rare occurrence, but I don't think I'm every upgrading to garbon on any of my components.

>>1029101
>implying that carbon failing catastrophically isn't a rare occurrence
>implying that aluminium alloy failing catastrophically isn't an even rarer occurrence

You're missing the point. Both materials CAN fail and kill you. I was just asking if there's any way to know if it will happen anytime soon to my alloy components.

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>>1029097
Are cinelli actually a good brand or a circle jerk hipster faggot brand?

Some of their nicer frames are just bondo

>>1029103
Suicidal hipster faggot brand, apparently.

>>1029103
What am I looking at? What happened to the seat tube? Does it have Down syndrome?

>>1029183
It's a time trial "funny bike" frame, the seattube is shifted forwards to allow for a very short wheelbase. All that stuff that looks gooped on around the joint is body filler to create an aerodynamic (looking) shape.

>>1028861
>it can handle more weight than carbon

Wrong, less weight, better impact resistance though.

>it's easier to repair

Wrong, carbon is much easier to repair.

>>1029195
Is that good or bad?

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>>1029195
Oh, I get it - it's supposed to be a poor man's F.Moser frame!

>>1029228
There's plenty of models from different companies that have a similar shape.

>>1029228
Like most Italian brands their best days are behind them.

Carbon could easily surpass everything if Jews wouldn't demand too much money and turning it into somekind of overpriced richfag previlege

I mean, come on, its just carbon! You just fucking glue it and bake it

>>1029243
Price is all in the labour and quality control, you can buy a sheet of toray 700 carbon fibre for something like $20/kg

>>1028822
hen we see carbon at walmart dont you think something new will have taken its place as the new hotness? maybe 3d printed bike or some other shit

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>>1029232
True, but it was Moser's bike with disc wheels that allowed him to beat Merckx's hour record.

>>1029453
>that pitiful gear ratio
Worst reproduction ever

>>1029457
Doesn't look far off from what he actually ran, remember that wheel is fucking massive.

>>1029457
>what is gear-inches
Dat rear wheel, son

>>1029103
their high end steel frames are still made in Italy by expert frame welders

The strength of carbon fiber is very directional, if any of the fibers are broken, this can happen if the frame is scratched deeply enough, then this will cause a weak point that will continue to grow. The slightest crack in carbon fiber always results in catastrophic breakage, not bending or deforming like steel.

>>1029062
From personal experience, I've seen more aluminum frames snap than steel ones.

>>1029518
Much of aluminum's strength has to do with its light mass which allows aluminum to be made many times thicker than steel. Aluminum actually has much the same stress properties as wood in fact you can use wood working tools on aluminum. Thats not an insult against aluminum, there are aircraft that have been made of wood, particularly notable are WW2 russian fighter planes

>>1029535
I have nothing against aluminum, but from personal experience, I think it's less resistant to fatigue than steel. That's just what I meant.

>>1029518
>>1029743
>muh anecdotes
>muh personal experience
You have literally nothing of value to add to this thread.

>>1029763
That's why I said I, from personal experience, if you can't take it as it is, maybe you should leave this board.

>>1029103
cinelli is the shit

So, is there any solution for those of us that hate living in fear of our handlebars/frame/seatpost/steerer tube snapping and killing us?

>>1030355
a torque wrench
steel

>>1028751
>Can't mass produce carbon fiber parts
>Requires too much hand work


From carbon filament to BMW part no human interaction in one room

https://youtu.be/kaoq8Mc4xxw

>>1029494
"Carbon fiber is stronger than steel"

Carbon fiber has a higher tensile strength than mild steel.

It is not hard (Rockwell) or as resistant to torsional strength ....which is not good for bicycles

>>1030368

making a flatish, squarish roof panel is a lot easier than bike frame shapes

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>>1029518
Because welding weakens it, and aluminium is very fucking common.

>my browser is actually trying to correct aluminium to aluminum

KILL
MAIM
DESTROY

>>1029922
Do you build frames? Do you work for a major bicycle manufacturer? Because if not, I doubt you've seen a statistically significant number of frame failures over your life, and those that you HAVE seen are biased by the kinds of bikes that you and your acquaintances like to ride.

You can he-said-she-said back and forth about "muh personal experiences" as much as you want but if you don't understand how it adds nothing of value to the thread, you have a severe cognitive defect.

>>1030368
Holy shit, turns out forming a nearly-flat sheet with a uniform ply schedule is easy! I'm shocked! Now show me the same thing with a bladder-molded part with complex curvature and an extremely complex ply schedule.

Also, BMW probably builds more than 10x as many of those roofs than the most mass produced carbon bike frame ever (remember each different size frame requires a different tool).

>>1030371
>Carbon fiber has a higher tensile strength than mild steel.
Yes
>It is not hard (Rockwell)
Yes
>or as resistant to torsional strength
Pedant: Torsional strength is not an inherent material property. The torsional strength of a tube of isotropic material is a function of the sheer modulus of the material.

But carbon fiber is NOT an isotropic material! Depending what direction the fibers are laid, you can optimize for tensile strength, torsional strength, or a combination of both.

>>1030659
Lol britfag.

>>1030355
This guy >>1030358 gets it.

Buy good quality components from reputable manufacturers. Don't be a turbo weight weenie about anything that's keeping you from eating asphalt: frame/fork/stem/seatpost/seat/handlebars/cranks/pedals/wheels/etc
>lol seats with carbon rails

Buy a good torque wrench or two and always torque to spec; don't guess and tighten until it "feels right".

>>1030659
Your elemental standardization attempts are silly anyways. Have you looked at the periodic table? There's tons of elements without 'ium' at the end. Freaking out over it is silly. Both ways work and everyone knows what you're talking about either way, so whatever.

>>1030759
I'm not freaking out about that, it's just fucking retarded to claim a correct spelling is wrong just because >lolfreedums.

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>>1030355
>tfw 26mm bars in a 25.8mm 2 bolt aluminium stem and the faceplate doesn't touch the stem.

am i going to die

>>1030767
Yes. But it's relatively unlikely to be because of your current bar/stem situation - especially if you're not fat.

>>1029281
Honestly bamboo, pressed cardboard or paper, and plastic/epoxy. Stuff that can sell as "environmentally friendly" and maybe in the future be produced easily enough and in numbers enough to be seen as "disposable". Except for the plastic which is all of those things except for the environmentally friendly part. Unless they use biodegradable plastics. Look, these things are tough to build with now but give it a few decades grace period. Hipsters will figure it out.

>>1030998
Too much labour needed

>>1030358
good luck finding steel handlebars, seatposts, stems, etc

>>1031010
This. :(

>>1030659
Ew. Mexican here. I also, think that typing or saying "aluminum" feels wrong.


>inb4 "build wall"

>>1031006
I mean machine work. With how much work goes into the bike industry, some enterprising autist will eventually figure out how to 3d print a whole bike out of biodegradable material. Some other autist will want to sort out using cellulose as a base, either just pressed together (like paper) or mixed with a polymer or epoxy or some shit. They'll probably be heavy as hell too. Imagine metal shortages mixed with the good old BSO attitude. They'll crank our cheap, heavy bikes that can be stripped of their metal bits and thrown on the compost pile.

Some other unrelated manufacturing field will sort out the needed tech, and we'll start seeing in the bike industry. Easiest is printing out plastic to start with.

>>1028842
And that's one of the reasons I won't buy carbon. If you crash, you have to throw the frame away.

>>1033936
...or you can repair it, it's not rocket surgery

>>1033936
Implying an alloy frame is any more reliable or repairable after a crash.