North Korea shells another SK island. Trump has another of his

>>33673700
what do the koreans call teh sea east of them? sea of japan? i cant seem to picture that.

>>33673700
Really depends how smart and reasonable Kim really is and how much pressure from hawk generals he might be under.

Kim doesn't rule alone :
He has to rely on the support of dozens of regime's dignitaries.
While most of these would be happy to keep their privileges and let the yanks and SK save face, some might be more patriotic.

But yeah, short story :
- NK hits something
- SK denounced it but doesn't do much, accepting it as the price for prosperity.
- Trump decides to use the incident to prompt his "strong man" image up, going with "we don't want no foreign war but you ain't touching our allies" line.
- Airstrikes.
- If they hit far from NK's cities, the regime pretend nothing happened.
- If they hit the capital or anything spectacular, the regime won't be able hide from the population.

From there, two options :
- NK uses the attack to blame all of the nation's problems on USA.
- NK goes wild and fire a full artillery barrage along the border.

>>33673711
Thay call it what is says on the map: East Sea. Most other places call it Sea of Japan as far as I know. I think China has a different name for it.

>>33673734
>Implying that within an hour of any limited strike on North Korea a pile of civilian bodies won't magically appear at the site of the blast, showcased for all the world to see.

>>33673700
Aren't NK artillery positions generally well protected from airstrikes though? Like dug into the mountains and so on. I'd imagine some of them would be pretty hard to fuck up even for USAF.

>>33673899
>Doubting the USAF's ability to level something if they really want to

shiggy diggy

>>33674117
That's the problem genius; we don't know where all of the artillery positions are, and the moment we start flying aircraft overhead, Seoul will pretty quickly be leveled.

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>>33674145
You haven't got to know where it is if you blow everything up.

>>33673869
> who are also somehow all political prisoners and dissidents

>>33673899
>>33674145

This is why a first strike north of the DMZ would require B-2s loaded with B-61s.

I still do not understand why SK is not given a few hundred tactical nukes just to be able to effectively and instantly respond to all those NKs barrels from Ming dinasty.

>>33674188

Geopolitics. Escalation dominance.

>>33674188
Because we'd rather fewer countries have them, and it's probably explicitly stated somewhere we'd fire them on their behalf from the US bases in Turkey. Norks can't first strike them from short range if "their" nukes aren't even in the country.

Also NK won't nuke them. They desperately need that farmland. They'll use nukes to bully small neighboring countries into favorable trade deals, and try to use it as a ticket to the big boy table of global politics where they can yell and pound their fat fists on the table until someone lifts embargoes on them.

>>33674145
>decades of nothing to do but plan
>decadess to analyze satellite imagery
>hurr, we don't know where all the artillery positions are

You serious?

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>>33673700
North Korea understands that once the US has built up a large enough force on the Korean peninsula they will be able to quickly overcome the North's conventional military forces and seize Pyongyang, a lesson learned from Iraq. Iraq was thought to have one of the most capable air defence networks in the third world yet were easily overwhelmed by US air power, a fact that the DPRK will have also noted.

With this in mind, and fearing further aggression by the US and their allies the DPRK leadership elects to launch a limited nuclear preemptive strike against targets such as harbours, airfields and staging areas inside the ROK and Japan. US facilities such as Air Station Iwakuni are attacked by mobile, short range ballistic missiles fired in groups to overwhelm missile defences. The majority of the missiles in flight will carry 500kg conventional warheads and act as decoys to help the nuclear weapons reach their destination.

South Korean planners anticipated a decapitation strike before Kim could give the order to launch, but are too late. Fighting now rages along the DMZ but North Korea now holds a nuclear Sword of Damocles above Seoul and Tokyo, forcing the US to reach a political end to the conflict. Whether the DPRK attempts to reunify the country or settles for a complete withdrawal of US forces from Korea is up to them.

/fanfic - I agree with OP that nothing would happen in reality. Maybe the US fleet might have to defend against some anti-ship missiles and small subs.

>>33674300
And ALL this can be stopped by a single barrage from Ohio submarine. Entire area north of DMZ can be pacified within an hour(for missiles to launch and reach their targets).

And Aegis can take care of "Sword of Damocles" along with a threat that second nuclear barrage will target non-military targets in NK.

>>33674300
You are fucking retarded if you think NK could ever win.

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>>33674300

>giving the US an excuse to use nukes
>when you have at most 5-10 <100kt warheads
>with Trump in the white house

like a 100 pound twink kicking a coked up Mike Tyson in the shin

>SAC's face when

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>>33673899
Yes and no. There are hundreds of pre-prepared concrete shelters along the DMZ for their artillery to use. While these may be useful in protecting their weapons against counter battery shelling, they don't move around and the locations are known so they are very vulnerable to precision guided weapons - either JDAMs or some of the ROK's own missiles.

The DPRK has made an effort to mount a lot of their artillery, both tube and rocket, on mobile chassis. You could speculate that should a war break out, they will take their weapons out of the hardened shelters and move them around, while using the shelters to absorb enemy bombs and missiles.

That way the shelters will still be useful, just not in their intended role.

>>33674360
>muh missile defence
Did patriot even successfully intercept 1 (one) Iraqi scud?

>b-but aegis!
Saturation.

>>33674363
America has a habit of getting BTFO in Asia, no longer white piggu go home.

>>33674384
>getting baited into nuking civilian targets
This is why the US is universally reviled. Sad!

>>33674300
NK aint shit. The moment they launch a single one of their shitty nukes is the moment Tridents come flying from the sea to level every square inch of North Korean land.

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>>33674159
Rolling Thunder 2: Best Korean Boogaloo

>>33674397
NK can't win with or without nukes against SK, Japan and the US combined.

>>33674297
>What is camouflage
>What are caves
>What are trees blocking view
Are you really this retarded, Anon?

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>>33674416
But the point of the nuclear first strike is to avoid a fight.

With the harbours and necessary infrastructure in ruins it won't be possible to move in enough troops at the required rate to mount an attack on the North, and the public in the US and especially Japan will not want to throw away more lives to fight over Korea, especially when doing do could provoke a second nuclear attack, this time on population centres inside Japan.

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>>33673700
>An hour later three dozen NK artillery positions are destroyed by airstrikes.

You mean the same ones the Sorks will have destroyed with counter-battery shelling?
Pic related, Sork howitzer returning fire during the Nork shelling of Yeonpyeong.

The two sides frequently come to blows, and it typically ends badly for the Norks. I don't imagine Trump would go out of whack for anything less than another Nork torpedo sinking a Sork ship.

>>33674397
>>getting baited into nuking civilian targets
>This is why the US is universally reviled. Sad!

>launch a nuclear sneak attack on SK killing hundreds of thousand of poeple
>US uses a depressed trajectory Trident shot to kick your entire country to death 15 mins later based on their doctrine
>"stop being evil US devils"

???

in any case the US would likely massively target C3 and military targets and probably delivering more fissile plutonium to NK in 30 mins than the norks themselves could breed in 50 years

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>>33674466
>typically ends badly for the Norks
Except when it doesn't
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ROKS_Cheonan_sinking

A $500M warship (conducting an anti-submarine exercise no less) can easily defeat anything the DPRK throws at it unless it's a crappy little submarine being vewwy, vewwy quiet.

North Korea has become quite good at asymmetric warfare it seems.

>>33674444
>But the point of the nuclear first strike is to avoid a fight.

Basically, yes.

>With the harbours and necessary infrastructure in ruins it won't be possible to move in enough troops

Okay, stop. Standard doctrine in nuclear conflicts is to destroy the enemy's ability to attack you, like you said. That also includes nuclear storage, launch, and command and control. You didn't include that in your assessment, so it's flawed.

What would happen in the scenario you laid out: N.Korea nukes harbors and military installations in Japan and south Korea, but doesn't compromise the US nuclear strike capabilities (it has no means to do so). The US counterattacks with a series of nuclear strikes, crippling N.Korea's nuclear launch, and command and control capabilities.

>Could provoke a second nuclear attack

If we are at the level where this is a legitimate concern, we wouldn't limit the targets to known C&C and launch sites, we would blanket all of N.Korea's landmass. There won't be a second strike.

N.Korea loses very badly when it comes to nuclear engagements, and they know this full well.

>>33674397
on the Patriot and Aegis, come the fuck on anon. Missile guidance and targeting follows moors like like modern computing technology does. Not the same game it was back then, which is nearly ancient history.

At this point in the game, if anything gets in the envelope of a Russian or American missile of any modern vintage, its going to die sans really good countermeasures.

As for saturation, Aegis tends to be mounted on moving targets and I doubt NK has enough missile type weapons to overwhelm it and the ECM firewall while the fleet is on the move. Even Artillery is limited to it's range and predictability.

Is it called the Yellow Sea because all of the people who live nearby are yellow?

I thought Seoul had the Iron Dome system like Israel now

>>33674490
So the north koreans adopted insurgency tactics at sea. Exploit a vulnerability until its plugged. Vulnerability is plugged now. Its just like the US at war. Just depends on how long it takes a behemoth military to adopt a new countermeasure to the exploitation, and proactively find its own weaknesses.

Its a good thing that South Korea is not allied to the US or anythi...

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>>33674506
>The US counterattacks with a series of nuclear strikes, crippling N.Korea's nuclear launch, and command and control capabilities.

Whether or not the DPRK has the capacity to detect an incoming US missile and order their strategic missile troops to carry out the second attack is debatable, but we can assume that their TELs will be quite survivable, hidden in the many valleys, caves, tunnels etc. available to them.

Stopping a second launch might then be extremely difficult, especially if the units are told beforehand to conduct the second attack within a certain time frame if they are not given an order not to, as a failsafe.

So the best case scenario if the US chooses to escalate with its own nuclear weapons is potentially all of Korea and Japan getting completely fucked. This presents the US leadership with two options;

a)back down (for the time being) Japan survives relatively unscathed. South Korea does or does not continue existing as a separate political entity

b)attack with strategic nuclear forces (against the wishes of the Japanese government), in which case millions will die in the Koreas and in Japan.

Either way the US stands to lose, but the sane option is to not attack with nuclear weapons. With option 'b' the US will likely lose it's bases in Japan too, because the post-nuclear governemtn there will not be happy that the US got it hit with nukes (again).

>>33674564
There's no way NK could ever win.

>>33674529
No it's yellow from all the pee

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>>33674691
Probably not, but what is 'winning' is this context?

People who think that Korean War II will be Iraq 3.0 are wrong.

>>33674564
>if the US chooses to escalate with its own nuclear weapons is potentially all of Korea and Japan getting completely fucked.

how exactly? does Kim have a spell to duplicate supergrade Pu-239?

you do realise NK can only produce 6.5 kg of plutonium a year(about the same or less than the amount of plutonium used in their handful of Fat Man sized bombs) and have only been doing so for like 7 years

for reference Hanford alone(not counting Savanah River and Oak Ridge) produced on average 8 kg a day

>>33674725
>about the same or less than the amount of plutonium used in their handful of Fat Man sized bombs

actually scratch that Fat Man used 6.2 kg per HEMI-SPHERE not for the entire pit

so the norks can probably produce one tiny bomb every 2 years(which fits with the spacing of their nuke tests)

>>33673899
>what are bunker busters (if needed) for 500, Alex.

>>33674754
So how many nukes does NK likely have, and how many can they reliable deliver? 2-3 for the first number, 0 for the second?

>>33674433
You obviously underestimate the ability of people in dark rooms staring at high resolution photographs for months on end.

>>33674764
not that anon, but estimates place it at ~10 weapons.

>>33674691
Yes but it could cause a god awful mess in the process of losing. This isn't some empty fucking desert where you can't hide anything, it'f full of mountains and forests that the Norks have been fortifying for 50+ years.

If it wasn't for the fact that thousands of soldiers would die, I'd almost want Trump to declare war on them just to stroke his own ego (daily reminder he's been talking about war and using nukes since before he was elected). The first time he skips a repatriation ceremony to go to Maralago will be beautiful.

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>>33674825
It was 20 in 2014, now it's around 30 give or take.

Depends on who you ask of course, there are some Chinese analysts who think they have a lot more, but those same ones also think the the DPRK could beat the US in a conventional fight so perhaps we shouldn't take them too seriously.

>>33673700
>Let's bomb North Korea!
>lol but only 36 of the 10,000 artillery pieces pointed at Seoul!! xD

What kind of retarded JUST-tier scenario is this? Congrats, shit doesn't work because of the fucking retarded premise. USA BTFO indeed.
Really makes me think.

>>33674117
>>33674159
>>33674297
>the USAF is magic!

Shouldn't you retarded children be busy watching the latest Michael Bay film?

>>33674889
>NK arty is magic

You're a fucking moron.

>>33674840
Tell me something I don't know. Everybody is aware that NK could kill a bunch of civilians. That's all they can do.

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South Korean guy here.

Shit's on high alert with the US Vice President coming and everything.

People around me are also wondering if Kim will do some stupid shit and cause a larger conflict.

Mainly, the people (men) fear that they'll have to be sent to military camps to fight and kill the pig called Kim Jong.

Personally, after having finished military service in a special forces brigade, I concluded that the South Korean military is pretty damn crappy, and to completely cripple the Norks, US assistance will be required.

What do you guys think would happen? If an all-out conflict occurs, do you think NK will be wiped out in a matter of days?

Personally, I can't trust my country's military...
Most of the soldiers are barely out of high school and most of them have never been engaged in something that involves high levels of physical activity.

>>33674716
Winning is being the victor at the treaty signing, which they'll never experience.

>>33675038
>People around me are also wondering if Kim will do some stupid shit and cause a larger conflict.
Kim isn't the one you have to worry about though. The Norks are going to keep doing the same stupid shit they always have. But now there's an egotisitical fool in the White House, who would absolutely LOVE to start a war.

>Most of the soldiers are barely out of high school and most of them have never been engaged in something that involves high levels of physical activity.
Daily reminder that most of the people who fought in WW2 were from similar circumstances.

>>33675038
I don't see any issues that would stop the air force and navy from bombing N.korea into oblivion, assuming Kim started it. Most of the world sees NK as a crazy dictatorship that has been asking for an ass kicking for ages. There would be next to no political fall out from stomping out NK. Not even China would say much because that be like openly stating that you agreed with Hitler.

NK would be turned into toast if it tried anything. The counter attack would be so strong that there wouldn't be a North Korea to speak of after the dust settled.

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>>33675038
Hey anon

>People around me are also wondering if Kim will do some stupid shit
Maybe shoot some scuds into the sea and rattle his sabre, but nothing significant

>I concluded that the South Korean military is pretty damn crappy
Up close I think every military looks a bit chaotic and disorganised but overall the ROK's military is superior to the KPA in every respect except size and nuclear weapons.

>What do you guys think would happen?
This thread has been back and forth over this, only truth is that nobody really knows.

Odd question but do you wear glasses? In pictures a lot of South Korean troops seem to wear them. How common is it?

>>33675074
>But now there's an egotisitical fool in the White House, who would absolutely LOVE to start a war.
Are you from a timeline where Hillary got elected?

>>33675074
I can't help but think you're the kind of deluded Hillshill that is eternally upset over Her losing the election.

>>33674145

>repeating the Seoul leveled meme

The northern outskirts would be shelled for an hour. Shit sucks for the people who live there, but it's not gonna be the new Dresden.

>>33675074
>Daily reminder that most of the people who fought in WW2 were from similar circumstances.
High school is different now, anon. The WORLD is different. People fresh out of high school are barely capable of managing ordinary lives, forget about warfighting. The average 18-24 year old is barely, if at all, capable of independent functioning or handling violence. Most have never even been outside longer than it takes to get to/from a vehicle. The front lines will be nothing but panic and disorder.
t. someone who graduated 3 years ago and knows he is surrounded by idiots

if anyone in this thread thinks the US does not know exactly where all NK positions are you really should read a book. preferably about the multitude of intelligence sources we use.

>>33675085
I can speak for China about that. Short sight is a rising problem in developed asian nations. Too many kids are focusing on computer screens, hand held game players, and tablets for most of their day. All in poor light, too. Currently, more than half of all university students in China need glasses, and up to 80% of the population is predicted to be short sighted by 2050.

>>33675110
you sound like a dumb idiot. people will grow up fast when thrown into a bad situation. not to mention they will follow their training

>>33675038
>Personally, after having finished military service in a special forces brigade
Which unit?

My dad was stationed in the 64th Nintendo Brigade

>>33673700
>What happens?
It sounds like one of Trumps better moments.
Honestly even if something justified happened it'll just show who's a partisan hack. They'll take an anti-war guise and all. With the recent political scandals in South Korea it really calls into doubt whom could be trusted to keep order with a military force backing them. Northern commanders couldn't be trusted since they'd follow out current orders of persecuting individuals AND their families. Very doubtful if northerners would trust southerners after the presidential shit lately unless the south was allowed to distinguished itself in the event. It's rather difficult for anyone to do that when they are allied with the U.S. as they excel everything in history in every way. It just defies reason for anyone to not ally or become a part of it.

>>33675129
>implying they can even handle their training

>>33673700
>Fucking nothing, because NK regime knows the moment it tries some real shit, is the moment when his collapse starts.
While I tend to agree I'm seriously questioning the actual sanity of Kim

>>33674188
Because china would lose its shit

>>33674300
Bullshit. The only reason the U.S. wouldn't completely annihilate is because they wield enough force to destroy everything. Trying to deliver a spank instead of total annihilation. The real problem is the world is too belligerent to sort their own affairs even if the U.S. removed the most volatile and hostile parties completely.

>>33673700
It's unlikely to happen like that anyway unless South Korea can be convinced to go along with it.

Now, if the starving roach-folk up north kill American servicemen, well, all bets are off.

>>33675096
>Are you from a timeline where Hillary got elected?
Are you from an alternate timeline where everyone is retarded? Trump has stated multiple times that because we have such a huge army and nuclear weapons, we should use them more often. Anyone with a lick of sense can see his sabre rattling a mile away. And considering that a war going on gives him the ability to shut down opposition by calling them traitors and disloyal (ie: exactly what happened back in 2003 with Iraq 2), that's even more reason for him to want it done.

>>33675097
As opposed to a deluded trumpeteer who pretends that the President doesn't throw tantrums on twitter.

>>33675110
People's jobs as long shoreman or farmers back in the 1940's, hefting stuff around, was hardly good preparation for the army either, especially since those are the jobs that are going to fuck up your back and knees, making army life harder. Not to mention the lower levels of general nutrition among the populace, which is heightened when you consider much of the world was in the midst of the Great Depression at the time.

Meanwhile the psychological and social issues you point out are nothing new either. People fresh out of highschool are prone to thinking they know everything, no matter what generation, and your appraisal of how they can handle violence, or discipline is also lacking as well, if you think that our grandparents were all that different.

>>33675110
That's what military training is for, though :
hardening you until you are physically and mentally useable by the army.
And then drilling the skills and procedures into you until you are useful for the army.

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2nKuoNhihh4

>>33675134
>Nintendo
kek

NK pussed out with their nuke test on Friday, right?

>>33674164
> and all have verified twitter accounts and gave statements to CNN beforehand.

>>33675215
They tried to launch one but it failed. Some Intel suggests that even the Americans did it remotely

>>33675110
"hey guys I'm so special DAE everyone else stoopid baby"

>>33675161
This guy gets it. China's whole lukewarm support for the North is based on the same idea as the Soviets, in that they're effectively using North Korea as a buffer-zone. And, quite frankly China really doesn't want US-backed forces along it's border and within striking distance, which is why they've been so vehemently against the US giving South Korea an Iron Dome system. But, given Trump's aggressive actions in recent weeks, it's no wonder Xi Jinping met with him for two day-long meetings, which were only supposed to last a mere ten minutes each. China is slowly backing down on their claims to the North in hope that Trump won't go apeshit and nearly cross into China, like McArthur. Albeit, once, and if this blows over, China will most likely go back to the status quo and re-establish their lukewarm support for the North once more.

On a slightly unrelated note, I'm slightly disappointed there's not more people claiming "Nippon stronk", and that Japan would have a more involved role in a potential war, given the recent reinterpretation of Article IX.

>>33675257
>the Americans did it remotely
Is this that NATO satellite that can shut down the atoms in nuclear weapons?

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>>33674564
Please stop posting your shitty fan fics Kim

>>33674889
Not gonna lie, the trailer for the next Transformers movie looks pretty decent. Probably won't be, but hey, no Shia Labeouf.

>>33675291
One thing to also remember is that China has a vested strategic interest in maintaining access to the Korean peninsula and its naval ports. And reducing their dependence on them for this is probably one of the many reasons they keep building little islands everywhere to try and claim more and more water.

These days the Norks piss them off as much as they do everyone else though. They're like China's version of Isreal in a way. So they certainly wouldn't go to war with the US to help them, but they'd hardly be completely passive with a huge American war on their doorstep.

>>33674889
Like millions of chinamen did in 2014?

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>>33675367
No.

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>>33674145

If you saw how shitty NK artillery was in Yeongpeongdo a few years back, you wouldn't repeat the tired old "NK will level Seoul" meem.

Also South Korea also has a massive counter-battery system and air force, and decades of satellite imagery and now drones make it much easier to silence North Korean guns as soon as they open fire.

I wish OPpenheimer was here to give an opinion on the whole situation

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>>33674397
>NK
>humans

>>33673899
Not particularly, no. They might've been by 1960's standards but they're VERY susceptible to PGM's. They would work pretty well against counterbattery fire though.

We also know where most of them are, because they're giant static fortified positions.

Aren't there USAF assets in South Korea, so if something were to happen there would be more than one CSG?

>>33674397
>Did patriot even successfully intercept 1 (one) Iraqi scud?
Yes. In fact it intercepted most of the ones that weren't just gonna slam down out in the middle of the desert somewhere.

>>33675593
Yes.

>>33675610
Wonder how active the air base at Gimhae is right now

>>33675640
That I don't know. I really don't even know what the AF has there other than a bunch of tactical lift.

>>33674145
>and the moment we start flying aircraft overhead, Seoul will pretty quickly be leveled.
This needs to be posted in pretty much every NK thread.
http://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-special-reports/mind-the-gap-between-rhetoric-and-reality/
tl:dr northern Seoul will be no picnic but only the largest guns will be able to reach it in the first place and they'll be getting counterbatteried and bombed out of existence the entire time.

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>>33675291
>China is slowly backing down on their claims to the North in hope that Trump won't go apeshit
China's been increasingly moving away from North Korea for years now. They really aren't too fond of having a cartoon supervillain with nukes on their doorstep. Russia, India, and Pakistan were bad enough, but at least they're mostly stable and located by the parts of China that aren't important like Real China.

>>33674765
Currently sitting in a well lit room, staring at imagery.

North Korean strategy is all based around keeping the regime in power. They know they can't win a conventional war alone against South Korea or the USA. That's why they are trying so hard to develop their nuclear program, to make them impervious to invasion and regime change. They have seen the USA's doctrine for the last 15 years: Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya directly, Egypt indirectly, Syria still in the balance. Kim Jong Un would be hard to oust if he had a credible threat of nuking South Korea, Japan or especially the USA.


In my opinion, the USA could have been successful at this approach before North Korea successfully tested a nuke and a missile. There's no way the North Koreans give up these nukes from military pressure. They see them as their best and only military option. There's no way the USA would be prepared to give enough to get the North Koreans to willingly give up their nukes. So the diplomatic option is probably off the table.

It all comes down to how aggressive Trump is willing to get. He might be hoping to provoke a dumb response out of NK which would give him justification for war. He might be hoping the extra pressure convinces NK to make a deal. I think it's unlikely. I believe in the long term nothing will change. North Korea will keep their nukes. We will just have higher tensions on the peninsula.

>>33675593
A new war with North Korea would become the priority over any conflict in Syria. Assets would quickly come to the region.

>>33676279
>Kim Jong Un would be hard to oust if he had a credible threat of nuking South Korea, Japan or especially the USA.
Exactly why they'll never give up their nuke, it's a bargaining chip that will never be traded away.

Iraq got permanent fucked for not letting UN inspectors in, Iran got sanctioned all to hell, but the Norks don't possess anything/resources worth taking.
So they'll make what nukes can and sit on them. All bark and no bite.
And Trump could easily fuck it up by putting the wrong kind of pressure on them.

>>33674444
>implying that have enough nukes to neutralise ports in SK, let alone anywhere else

>implying SK would need help to come out victorious against the North in a conventional war

>>33674145
Iraq was by all intents and purpose a fairly modern, large, and capable military regime. It got leveled in what? 2 weeks?

The Best Koreans would not fair well.

If an actual war breaks out you can absolutely expect American and S. Korean military to employ all counter artillery measures.

Seoul would get hit, but not with the fury the North propagates.

Do any other powers have real reason to intervene against the Sorks? the scenario changes quite drastically if they do

>>33675257
Friggin lasers man

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This is a long thread full of speculation and misinformation so I'm not going to read the whole thing.

The reason Kim is dangerous is that all his propaganda is based on Kim being a protective mother (yes, mother) to the people of DPRK. If he is humiliated his leadership will have no legs to stand on.

>>33673838
Most Glorious Eastern Sea of Chinese Supreme Prosperity

>>33674164
>who magically died of starvation and abuse
>because everyone knows that's how modern artillery kills

>>33676780
Fookin' Laser Sights?

War with NK would be asymmetrical. They're crazy but not stupid. The days of tank-swarming the DMZ and reclaiming Seoul are long gone.

The war would see a few stages/strategies:

-War begins, NK immediately does mass attacks on the DMZ with their special forces. "special forces" is a fancy term, but they are essentially ~100,000 or so suicide infantry trained for spoiling attacks and civilian massacres. Heavy use of tunnels, also attempts to insert them by swarms of small aircraft and gliders (including An-2's), semi-submersible boats, and midget subs. Their primary goal would be to attack civilian communities to distract ROK/US forces. If an opportunity for an ambush attack on ROK/US forces opens up, they'd take it.

-Mass artillery attacks. It’s a myth that NK could level Seoul with regular artillery. Only a few of the heavier-caliber (240mm/300mm) MLRS’ and the massive Koksan 175mm SPG can hit Seoul from the DMZ. However, border communities; ROK/US Barracks, etc. would be targeted. The main goal here would mainly be to try and hold them in place and hinder their advance rather than score any kind of military victory. NK has a vast amount of self-propelled artillery and MLRS’ and a vast network of bunkers to store them in to try and protect them from aircraft.

-Ballistic missile and rocket attacks. This would be the main arm of NK. Their goal: use swarms of ballistic missiles and rocket artillery to bombard ROK civilian communities until the opposing government concedes to a ceasefire and you can claim victory to the media. This is basically the "hamas doctrine". Like Hamas, you will be BTFO militarily, buy if you kill enough civilians and are seemingly forcing an end to the conflict you can claim the narrative.

>>33674117
>Believing the imperialist pigs war propaganda.

>>33677224
-On the naval front, North Korea would attempt Iranian-style swarm boat tactics and midget sub infiltration to try and take out ROK and potentially even US ships (though the carriers themselves would be way too far away from the peninsula for that to work). Civilian shipping and the many ferries in South Korea would be prime terror-causing targets. Attempts to repeat what happened to that South Korean corvette would be a big emphasis. However with the ROK/USN on war footing and with large ASW aircraft screens going up their chances for a major propaganda victory would be slim.

The WMD Option: NK has quantities of chemical weapons and several nukes. However their delivery systems are very unreliable. Would NK be crazy enough to use them? It’s hard to say, I doubt they would strike South Korea with WMD’s for symbolic reasons but Japan or China (which is likely to now side with the US and its allies in a war) are potential targets. However US EW and ABM abilities are quite underestimated globally, and the constant failure of NK missile launches is leading many to think that Air Force cyber command has been waging its own op.

What would NK's conventional forces do? Mostly sit along the border and try to hinder any advance into NK territory by ROK/US forces. They would probably abandon nearly all their tanks and AFV's and turn to becoming tank hunting infantry with ATGMs and/or fortify themselves in tunnels.

NK's conventional air force (i.e. the MiG's) would probably be entirely absent in any war and most likely just be stored underground like saddam did in 2003. No point in wasting them.

THIS is what a war with NK would look like. Don't buy any other memes. Conclusions in next post.

>>33677224
>>33677233
So what would the result be? The US and ROK would dominate the conflict militarily and cause huse losses on NK. However due to the scale of the fighting and the attacks on civilians distracting much of the ROK, it’s likely a few “propaganda” victories (a few soldiers captured, a boat sunk, a tank destroyed, a fighter shotdown, successful Scud hits on an important site) combined with large civilian losses on both sides would cause Western media to pressure the US/ROK to come to terms that allows the DPRK regime to survive. THIS is North Korea’s goal in a war, and the only realistic outcome they can hope for.

>>33674714
From India of course

>>33674725
gravity nukes.

>>33677356
...and what bombers do the Norks have to deliver those gravity nukes? IL-76s?

>>33677402
They have 80 or so Il-78's still. They're gonna go boom early in any war tho

>>33674300
at and AA on a tank, Kim, stop, Command and conquer generals ideas dont work in real life...

>>33674300
Honestly, if the North Koreans are going to launch an assault, it'll be preempted by commando teams assassinating major political and military leaders and their families.

>>33674145
.... bro you serious? We not only know where they are, but have systems that can find them if they manage to fire. It's estimated from multiple high ranking defectors that only 20% of nk artillery is operable. However, they still have a very considerable number that would instantly destroy the dmz, and hit multiple U.S. and sk bases. Seoul would get jacked up, but wouldn't be the priority of fire.

>>33677561
>only 20% of nk artillery is operable.
How is that even possible for a nation that spends all of its money on military

>>33677603
When you have no money in the first place your military is still shit even when you spend all your money on it.

>>33677603
Because the only place that sells them anything is China. And even they only sell their outdated, useless shit.

>>33677621
If that's the case I'm surprised China or Russia haven't toppled the Norks and installed a more controllable puppet

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>>33677125
no, friggin lasers shooting missiles down remotely

>>33673734
>how much pressure from hawk generals he might be under
He's not under much pressure because the generals don't want to piss him off and be executed. I'm sure they nudge him a little in the friendliest possible way but definitely not pressure him.

The generals are less likely to be hawks because they're the ones who have contact with China and who have been given hints about what will happen to generals that start shit and who will and won't be picked for the next regime if shit does get started.

>>33677648
>If that's the case I'm surprised China or Russia haven't toppled the Norks and installed a more controllable puppet
Why do you think Kim executes generals now and then? And assassinated his brother recently?

He keeps a close eye on who might be a viable replacement puppet.

>>33674841
Their main issue is delivery systems.

They really don't have them. You can't just duct tape a test nuke to a irbm/scud and make it work, nor do they have a bomber that could make it to SK to drop an experimental weapon.

>>33676070
your pic related is easy, lil' kim is shitting his diaper.

>Real China
that concept cannot be understated. The Han Chinese consider eastern China to be their version of Kansas in the Wizard of OZ. a place so traditionally Chinese, it serves as a stand in for the whole idea of China, everywhere, ever.

They cannot tolerate the idea of an American puppet state on the border of Real China. Which is why they prop up the tubby dictators to their east.

If we had turned Burma into a capitalist paradise instead of South Korea, they would have had no problem opening direct relations with that country. In their mind, the western (irrelevant, muslim) half of their country only consists of a buffer zone to protect Real China from invasion. Since the buffer zone is comfortably in place, they wouldn't give two shits what was on that border.

>>33681055
>They cannot tolerate the idea of an American puppet state on the border of Real China
Fuck we should just let them keep a puppet there, just one that doesn't target innocents with nukes

>>33680953
we should just wait it out until he has no more generals, or brothers.

>>33681076
Nah, fuck China.

HAHAHAHA NICE JOB ELECTING DRUMPF, IDIOTS

ENJOY YOUR NEW KOREAN WAR AND WORLD WAR

>>33681142
I will, thanks friend :)
I'm going to be the first guy on my block to get a confirmed commie kill

>>33681076
I agree. the problem is, who? the kim s have run quite the indoctrination program, making it nearly impossible to install anyone not from their family as your new puppet.

>>33681155
y-you to? I'm going to use my SKS for the irony of it.
>these fags thinking I didn't know what I was getting with my vote...
I've been waiting for this moment, for all my life...

>>33674145
Stop with this stupid fucking meme.

>>33681055
>Since the buffer zone is comfortably in place, they wouldn't give two shits what was on that border.
They seem to give a lot of shits about Tibet

>>33681315
they want Tibet for themselves. it's a little dick thing.

like how an only child can't play well with others.

Han Chinese covet. desperately.

>>33681142
In opposition to /pol/, I think this is the one thing our beloved Walking Spray-on-Tan(trum) has done right aside from putting a stop to catch-and-release.
We need to stop pussyfooting around and letting dictators who run in opposition to our interests piss about willy-nilly with nukes and put our fucking foot down as a military power, and remind people just WHY we spend so much of our GDP on our military.
Enough isolationist bullshit, let's fucking kick these mountain chinks shit in.
[spoilersdontworkon/k/]not that i'd actually sign up to fight, of course. [/spoilersdontworkon/k/]

>>33681155

Good thing your not on my block! Once the pendulum swings back right up here in Canada you can just about guarantee me a spot in the trench.

>>33675958
>http://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-special-reports/mind-the-gap-between-rhetoric-and-reality/
My man. This report may be five years old but the North Korean military hasn't exactly modernized since then. The only thing that may have changed since is that SK and US counter-battery tactics may be more efficient. Also the South has C-RAMs which I think the report doesn't even mention.

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>>33681142
>>33675367

steam rolled hair

look into the glare and pop it brother

slick like 007 man

you fly like kim jong rockets

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>>33674444
>MFW they are still using the old implosion method

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>>33675191
Bro.

>>33673700
>What happens?

Nothing happens.

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>>33674400
>Rolling Thunder

No.

>>33684386
>922 aircraft lost

Holy shit, NVA SAMs were deadly

>>33673899
Thermobarics all up in this bitch yo. What is the standard Thermobaric bomb in the US arsenal btw?

>>33685474
>Holy shit, NVA SAMs were deadly

Yes and no :
There was a fuck ton of them... and they had plenty of targets.
If you are shooting alone at the occasional opportunity target, you are bound to miss it most of the time.

If you are shooting alone at whole herds, you are bound to hit once or twice.
If you and ten buddies are all shooting at those same herds going along the same path every day for months, you will eventually kill a good number of them.

The operation lasted for more than 3 years, with more than 300.000 sorties.
That means 1 plane lost for every 300 sorties.
1:300

To see the two extremes :

In the Gulf War, 75 planes were lost for 100.000 sorties.
1:1333

In WW2, 57.000 planes lost for 2.300.000 sorties.
1:40

>>33676279

So the US and allies should wait till Nork ICBMs are working well? We should have stomped their ass in 2006 when they blew their first nuke test.

>>33673711
they tend to use the french name due to a previous colonial occupation: Mare D'Angleterre

>>33674564
Why would nuclear bombing the NK have literally any effect on SK or Japan?

Is there any way a Nork nuclear missile could ever get through without being intercepted? I'm a bit doubtful of that.

>>33674300
>Tfw Japan becomes the first and only country to be nuked in two separate conflicts

>>33674535
You mean the THAAD? Wasn't there a political mess with its deployment?

>>33673700
why cant we just invade already? even china fucking left them for dead. next time they try shit lets just end it once and for all

>>33684386
i doubt 60s SAMs could take on modern US tech. lets just use tomahawks

I'm for the most part isolationist but Best Korea is one of the few countries on earth I would support leveling completely for pretty much any reason up to and including boredom. I can't accept people that shitty having nuclear weapons capable of hitting the US.

I feel sort of bad for Worst Korea and Animeland but they're just going to have to take one for the team. The Nips have plenty of practice being nuked anyway, I'm sure they're really good at it by now.

>>33687697
Over the sea to Japan? No, no chance. Over the border to SK? Possibly, it depends purely on how many missiles they are able to launch, and how many of those are nuclear.

The primary dangers that NK presents right now are:
- Nuclear attack on Japan (extremely unlikely).
- Nuclear attack on Seoul (impossible to judge).
- Nuclear attack on invading forces (extremely likely).

I personally don't think that the USA, even under Trump, would nuke NK in response to a nuclear attack on SK. Nuclear weapons fuck things up for occupying forces, would look bad internationally and would especially piss off China. As the NK regime would be in hiding and gives zero shits about civilian casualties, using nukes would not push NK one inch closer to surrender.

The most effective solution by far would be to co-ordinate with China against NK, but sooner or later this path would demand a reduction in American military presence in the region. Overall this would send a strong warning to Russia and Iran, but would leave lots of countries in SEA hanging in regards to Chinese territorial claims.

The other solution would be stand behind SK and Japan 100% and essentially just push the DMZ up to the Chinese border. The downsides are that the NK elite will mostly escape through China, and that it would raise regional tensions by quite a way.

>>33685474
It was mostly AAA, SAMs didnt achieve many kills

>>33676070
There are some chinks stupid enough to think NK is a genuine ally. But they mainly live on the NK border so theyre probably just terrified of the prospect of a million norks flooding their homes raping robbing and stealing.

>>33676672
>lost to persian boys

wew

>>33688966
I'm like 90% sure that if Japan got nuked a second time they'd go back to flying kamikaze missions and decapitating hordes of Chinks.

It's like their on/off switch.

>>33676961
didn't it end up going to the Indian Ocean?

>>33676961
When do you believe that his rule will fall?

>>33675346
No.
As in the USA hacked the launch complex and told the missile to launch prematurely with a 5~7% fuel load.
Which is why it crashed right after it got airborne.

If it's true, I'm having a nice hard laugh.

>>33691343
I'm aware this anon is trolling, but I just wanted to make sure /k/ knows that with either rockets or missiles, there's not a giant red "Launch" button you can hack into, and in fact what this anon is insinuating happened is physically impossible for many reasons.

>>33681163
I'm surprised Kim Jong-Un, during his stay in Switzerland schools, wasn't hired by the CIA to bring NK to the bargaining table once he became Big Boss.

>>33685806
... Does the USA even do Thermobaric munitions?

You always hear about TOS, or RPO, or, FoaB.

But what does the USA have in that category of Fuel/Air Munitions?

>>33691385
What if whats happening now is all part of some grand scheme?

>>33691425
If it is, I have no idea where they're taking it.
Besides the killing off the competition in NK is probably weakening it more while pissing China off. But to what end?

>>33691381
Yes, I'm trolling on that.
However, older MLRS units are literally an arming switch and then a "go" button. As aiming was all done manually prior.
Still no hacking ability of course.

>>33691171
I'm okay with that.

Why can't we all gearup and invade and claim NK for /k/?

We can all meetup and literally invade it because at night they don't use NV

>>33691424
>Does the USA even do Thermobaric munitions?

Fo real nigga?

>>33691424
We did, CBU-55 and CBU-72 come to mind. IIRC during Desert Storm we found their performance lacking, so mostly got rid of them.

>>33681018
Most of their nuclear weapons would be detonated inside North Korea in ambushes on invading forces. North Korean propaganda will blame the Americans, saying that America used nuclear weapons.

>>33674145
But we do, We've had spy planes watching them for so long I imagine that they have nearly all of NKs arty positions mapped

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>>33673700
>Not sure where allied power propaganda ends and false flagging of Nork incompetence begins.
>Not sure where Allied propaganda ends and coverups of actual Nork capabilities begin.

How do we know, /k/?