What would a new conflict with North Korea look like? How devastating

If NK has nukes, then pretty devastating.

>>33321201
Seems like every time I read something regarding a rekindled Korean war, it's mentioned that Seoul is within range of nork artillery. Is there an effective way (besides preemptively bombing the fuck out of the north) to neutralize that threat?

>>33321743
>Is there an effective way (besides preemptively bombing the fuck out of the north) to neutralize that threat?
No, but the sorks have long factored that into their strategic situation and run drills to public bomb shelters in case of such an event while the military mobilizes to curbstomp the Norks

>>33321743
Not all of their guns are capable of hitting Seoul. At most they would be noticed moved into place prior to the outbreak of hostilities (Same for any rockets artillery).
Once they opened fire, they would be hit with devastating counter-battery fire from the South Koreans and Americans. Seoul would be damaged but far from wiped out.
The real issue would be if the North goes full retard and launches a nuke and it cannot be intercepted on the ground or in flight. But that's a very big unknown.

>>33321873
Yeah this sounds about right. I figure Seoul and nearby cities to it and the border will suffer some damage, probably moderate damage to initial artillery barrages before they're counter batteried into smithereens. The next question is what does NK do next? Trying to put a force across the DMZ would be pretty nasty without some way to push a large force through all those minefields safely, and I don't know if they have the anti-air or even the transports to move that many troops quickly or safely at all.

>>33321900
Supposedly the Norks dug secret tunnels through the DMZ so the pour out like ants from an ant hill when shit hits the fan. It's been years since I last heard about them so take it with a grain of salt.

>>33321873
speaking of nukes, assuming they have a handful of nukes to use is it known which they would target, Seoul/cities or American bases?

File: 1489395214889m.jpg (90KB, 1024x768px) Image search: [Google]

90KB, 1024x768px

>tfw no Korean War in your lifetime

>>33321970
Probably bases to slow the Americans down

The biggest concern in an altercation with NK really isn't NK itself, but instead China and possibly Russia as well. The US would have to convince both of them that the Kims are getting out of hand and that they need to drop NK like a hot rock and make sure they don't get involved when US drone Kim Jung-Un's palace. We have plenty of experience using drones to hunt sandnigger terrorists who blend in with their local population, taking out a fat gook in a palace will take no time at all. Given how damn near all the power rests with Kim Jung-Un since the Kim's are like cartoon dictators, his sudden death would create a power-vacuum that'd likely cause NK to shortly collapse. However, China and Russia, as allies to NK would be obligated to retaliate in kind should the US do such a thing, and they actually have things like a capable military and a working government with various chains of command and a military that can rival the US's in strength.

>>33322046
It looks like China is just about tired of prnk's shit, but there's no way they'd sign off on a full scale war being waged on their border. No nation would tolerate that.

>>33321970
Maybe Seoul or they may do as the PLA planned and use them for a massive breakthrough. Set them off on the DMZ to wipe out defenders, fencing, and mines, and then rush attacking forces across before SK/US forces can regroup.

>>33321970
The DMZ. Can you think of an easier way to cut through the minefields, barriers, and trees?

>>33321963
no its been confirmed

>>33322046
>rival us strength
You should get yourself checked if you truly think anything China or Russia has can rival us strength. USo military surpasses both combined. China is far from having any capability to do anything and Russia is a few years away from economic collapse again.

>>33322191
>i am 12 and what is geographie

>>33322046
>>33322097
USA, Russia, and China each pick a general, SK picks two, they form a military junta that runs NK following Kimmy getting droned. Unlikely as hell, but most everyone involved has a stake in maintaining a stable NK.

>>33322137
>>33322149
True to form, Norks send human zerg waves through irradiated fallout area

>>33322316
>starving irradiated skeleton zombies that can run, shoot and provide artillery support
spoopy

>>33322046
this
any NK v. SK conflict will be a proxy war for China/Russia and the US to duke it out (unless Kim goes full retard and starts dropping nukes).

>>33322316
That's more a Soviet-inspire tactic. Whole reason things like the BMP and T-55 (with NBC protection) were made; to surprise NATO with those nuclear detonations and then rush their troops and armor into a deep battle scenario.

The scariest thing is there's really no way to counter that initial push. If the attacking side doesn't care about casualties, they will push through and overwhelm the stunned defenders. All you can do as defense is set up a line further back to stop the advancement and hope you don't get hit with the same nuke/rush again or hope you don't get encircled.

I'd argue the best defense is (if you have your own troops and armor in abundance) to do a counter-rush.

>>33322396
NATO doctrine was to hit Soviet armored advances with tactical nukes, it's why they invested so much into nuclear artillery and mines.

And deep battle is countered by command and control degradation, defense in depth, and feint retreats. If your lines are broken then the enemy forces should be constantly engaged, as deep battle prioritizes the disruption of operational capacity and breakthrough units are typically ordered to avoid combat in favor of advancing to disrupt frontline reinforcement.

>>33322631
What a shit show WW3 would have been if whenever one side started to make an advance, the other would just break out the tactical nukes. A war of attrition that comes down to which side will succumb to the losses/sickness first.
Then there's the possibility of the weapons becoming bigger and bigger until you're facing a strategic nuclear weapons exchanges which leads to everyone losing.

>>33322683
NATO's response was always, "fuck you, here's a nuke." Russia wouldn't really press tactical nuclear exchange unless REFORGER was getting near or the assault was breaking down. It plays into a weakness of deep battle, the longer you go without being able to break enemy lines the less reserves you have to exploit openings when they occur.

>>33322382
Yeah I can't see China liking a US surrogate on its border. It's already pissed with Japan being there, and Russia would probably dick us/covertly support NK/China just to bleed us of resources and gain intelligence on our capabilities. If either moved in, I'd wager it'd be china doing the heavy lifting with Russia providing intelligence/logistical/espionage support. But once again, that's a big if, and China would lose one of their biggest training partners in the process, so I don't know how ultimately it would go down if things really got pressed hard.

>>33321978
>probably no wars during your military career
I feel it

>>33321963
their tunnels are continually discovered and filled in with water/concrete. It's by no means a viable long term strategy.

>>33322191
must be spring break, looks like kids came to /k/ early.

>>33323226
Ground penetrating radar is a motherfucker. Plus the issue with tunnels in general is that you can't really deploy anything more than special forces or small units for harassing.

File: Ball Pits.jpg (134KB, 700x550px) Image search: [Google]

134KB, 700x550px

>>33322396
Big problem if you're using a lot of soviet-era tactics is that a lot of them are motorised infantry and Korea is covered in mountains to the point that you wouldn't be able to use them a lot. Plus I don't think NK has a lot of vehicles or fuel to run them much- big risk of that too in a modern conflict is that you'll be detected while mustering and blown to hell. The counter to that I guess is nuke strikes aren't nearly as devastating in mountains, channelling a lot of the blast up if its in a valley, so lots of infantry being foot mobile has some use in that they're not as easily condensed along roads.
Being NK has about half the population of SK, they're already on the back foot in that regard, you need a lot of infantry to dislodge someone on the defensive, or if SK where to attack them, having those numbers will count

However, out of the old soviet playbook with their asymmetric attacks by getting masses of paratroops and spec forces into the enemy backlines in an offensive to take out infrastructure, command and sensitive military targets- does have a lot of merit. Assuming they're retard-moto and trained well enough, which is anyone's guess as most of their footage shows them doing the usual 3rd world training by jumping through flaming hoops and punching bricks. Like any military that's not been 'blooded' in living memory of fighting an actual war or having any combat experience it devolves into a bureaucratic circus of various shenanigans
They also tend to suck fairly major balls when it comes to a "for realsies"- ie: Iraq

While I'm not comparing the tactics of Iraq invasion to fighting in the mountainous shithole that would be Korea, Iraq had some good gear, some very good troops here and there and literal mountains of supplies. They where also taught by the Russians in tactics and when we lit them up like fucking christmas, you can bet good money a few eyes up north had some deep naval gazing about soviet era tactics

>>33321201
I know it's a hypothetical, but there won't be one.
NJ know that they cannot win and they'd lose all the aid they're receiving, like food, fucker's would starve before too long just by stopping the food exports, wouldn't even have to invade.
That's why they're trying to build nukes. So they have any bargaining power.

>>33323321
Paradrops are out of the question. They'd be trying to pull them off against an enemy that functionally will have air superiority from the beginning and ground-based anti-air that they can't counter.

>>33321235
Assuming they work...

File: hotdognorks.jpg (67KB, 631x454px) Image search: [Google]

67KB, 631x454px

>>33323369
You're not thinking asymmetric warfare
Subs with spec forces in them dropped off along the coast move inland, they make a hole in the AA and then you drop into that area. Course its horrendously dangerous, probably to the point of suicidal but no force commander likes the idea of 100's of fucked in the head crazy Spetsnaz running around behind their lines breaking shit- often that would mean diverting appropriate force to get rid of them, which wouldn't be diverted to a main battle line.

>>33323321
>>33323537
Oh those Nork propaganda images shooped to be child friendly. Haven't seen those in a while...

File: Snicker norks.jpg (204KB, 700x1127px) Image search: [Google]

204KB, 700x1127px

>>33323547
yeah I don't come to /k very often, but I do like a good nork thread

If only you guys knew what I know...

>>33321743
Counter battery fire.

>>33323834
Spill it you cock tease. You're Anon

File: nork_arty.png (113KB, 660x773px) Image search: [Google]

113KB, 660x773px

>>33321743
>>33321201

If you don't mind reading then check out:

>http://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-special-reports/mind-the-gap-between-rhetoric-and-reality/

This report goes into detail on what a conflict with the Norks looks like. Relative to your question there is extensive analysis on what kind of casualty rate Seoul can expect from Nork artillery positions. Basically, they use US strike rates from previous conflicts (like Gulf war) to determine how long it will take to disable Nork artillery. Given that most of Best Korea's positions have been mapped out Nautilus's best guess is US/SK forces remove about 1% of artillery positions an hour.

It's also not the holocaust people assume. Nork arty is not within range to hit all of Seoul. Most of it is only in range to hit Northern Seoul suburbs.

See pic related.

Considering that nearly 1/3 of their artillery shells are duds a surprise North Korean volley that primarily targets civilian targets can expect to kill 30-45,000 civilians. Once they start, then they start getting bombed and cruise missiled to shit.

So there's really way to "counter" artillery. As for an invasion South across the DMZ it's extremely unlikely for logistical reasons. There are three well-defined routes the DPRK can take to move supplies. This report estimates they'd need about 2,500 trucks per day to sustain an offensive.

That's a lot of easy targets for an enemy with guaranteed air superiority.

So yes, Norks can bomb parts of Seoul if they want, but they can't feasibly sustain an offensive. Any sort of surprise, punitive volley will be met with a fuck ton of missiles and bombs to disable known artillery positions.

>What would a new conflict with North Korea look like?
It realistically wont happen, china cant afford to lose its retarded buffer state against a border with the pigdog Koreans
>How devastating would it be on South Korea?
Ruinous. Sure, Seoul would get bombed a bit but that wouldn't last long. the suffering comes when SK economy has to withstand the wave of gorillions of unskilled and largely unemployable war refugees and economic migrants. It would be like the migrant crisis in EU times a thousand, since at least your average mehmet in Germany knows how to clean a toilet, but the norks are mostly worthless.

>>33322259
Now that's a sitcom i'd watch

>>33321201
Without any backing from a major country I seriously doubt NK would do anything at all.

It would look a lot like Israel vs Hezbollah, but with Norks launching a lot heavier firepower against civilians.

>>33323305
Well the ones they discovered were apparently big enough for vehicles, so I'd think they'd try get their obsolete slavshit behind SK lines.

>>33323011
China would more likely just try to get a buffer zone established (most likely in an agreement with the US), so their subjects don't have freedom shoved in their faces evertime they look torwards Korea. Basically the DMZ would just jump 200 miles north. Russia wouldn't do shit for NK. They would gather intelligence where they can, same as the Chinks.

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/korea-bomba?utm_source=vicefbus

I know, I know.. it's Vice. But they actually consult a North Korean Analyst so there's credible stuff here.

>>33322259
Russian and China wouldn't agree unless SK only got a single vote, and second "Korea" vote went to a NK, otherwise they'd get btfo on any votes against SK+USA.

>>33325529
This is good shit. I think Not even North Korea thinks it's a viae option and is just blowing smoke

>>33321201
>North Korea drops nuke
>Kills many trees somewhere in northern forests because shitty accuracy
>America drops nukes
>South Korea becomes island

>>33323537
You're still talking about getting special forces through coastal defenses on high alert, getting them to AA installations, disabling them, then launching a coordinated air drop before they come back online. You're also forgetting that internal security forces and law enforcement will be extensively deployed as well, since you're going to be dealing with mass evacuations. The mass evacuations themselves present an additional difficulty, as anyone not military or law enforcement would be extremely out of place not following evacuation routes in addition to the evacuations meaning that NK special forces would need to hoof it due to clogged roads.

>>33324934
China has the same issue, in the case of a NK regime collapse they're expecting to be swarmed with Nork refugees.

>>33325449
It's not so much a matter of how many you can drive down the tunnel, but how many you can get to exit the tunnel.

>>33322046

>Assuming that the NK state and military apparatus wouldn't be in a highly secure and secretive location at zero hour
>Russia_and China_are_allies.meme
>Assuming that any more than covert material and training would be offered to NK by anyone anywhere


If anything, Russia and China would just take the opportunity to clean house in their respective spheres while the west isn't looking e.g. uighurstan, caucuses, baltics, etc

>>33325520
That's about what I was thinking. Some kind of Joint Economic DMZ or something that shaves a large chunk of NK bordering them.

China wants those sweet economic dollars we provide them, as much as I'm sure they dislike us, they need our money more than anything.

>>33324934
>>33326312
Yeah these are good points. I think a big factor neither side wants to deal with is the humanitarian crisis all those malnourished/indoctrinated NK refugees will create streaming across a newly reunified Korea or trying to get into China. I could easily see a border crisis on china's side where they try violently/forcibly stem the tide of Norks trying to cross the Yalu river or something.

>>33323537
Is that a hot dog?

>>33321754
This is a lie. Ive lived in korea for so long and there is no training like that.

>>33321201
I was stationed in South Korea in 2005. Nobody really cares about the North. The SK military would curb stomp them.

They set off their first nuke while I was there and the media made a huge deal about it. Nothing changed for us not even the fpcon and I was downtown the same night getting drunk.

Also went to the dmz and saw nk soldiers they put there. They were all very short, emeciated, using outdated weapons, and dumb as shit uniforms. They also didn't all have weapons only one out of five had an ak or side arm what I'm assuming is officers/senior nco's because they can't trust their regular troops.

>>33324873
Good info, anon.

Thanks.

>>33327982
To tag onto my post. Conversely the SK troops have a physical and appearance standard to be on the DMZ. they are all over 6 foot and in very good shape. They also can don their mopp gear in under 30 seconds. I can't even get my mopp pants over my boots in five minutes.

SK troops are also a little better motivated/trained than we were in joint exercises. I was really impressed by them especially since I thought a conscript army would be shit.

>>33321743
No, they can mitigate the threat very effectively but the result is going to be huge casualties on both sides no matter what

File: skgasmask.jpg (273KB, 742x1023px) Image search: [Google]

273KB, 742x1023px

>>33321754
>>33327885
They ran drills a lot back when NK just began developing and proving they could develop nuclear bombs, as well as chemical weapons. There are gas-masks more or less hidden in plain sight.

By now SK mainly runs these drills in towns near military bases and in some larger cities, but less and less people get involved in them.