Realistically, can arab insurgents manage to topple the israeli

>>32356551
If I was Hamas/Hezbollah I would defect to Isreal and serve them. As an IDF commander, I would use any means necessary to win.

The Palestinians will never be able to militarily defeat Israel alone, certainly not with a geurilla campaign.

The armed campaigns are capable of serious fights (keeping the IDF out of Lebanon), but the important function they serve is to keep the Palestinian cause and identity alive. The Palestinians can out breed the Israelis, and that will be their only downfall.

The only other real tangible function of the armed struggle within occupied Palestine/Israel is as a leverage in negotiations. By maintaining their arms the Palestinians can force the Israelis to dialogue with them, negotiate with them, and acknowledge their existence. If they disarmed they wouldn't have to be thought of anymore. Palestinians would cease to exist if they didn't have guns.

>>32356551
Get a large, militarally superior country to waste money and resources bombing sand niggers and diverting their attention away from me.

>be Britain
>empire spans the fucking globe
>dominate the seas
>all of them
>ww2 happens
>colonies start getting uppity, lose a couple
>start handing other colonies back to the locals
>except for one
>create whole new country out of thin fucking air and invite everyone of a particular group worldwide to move in
>instead of giving it back to the locals
>oh hey where did all these terrorists come from

Fucking Britcucks ruin everything. If Israel hadn't managed to convince the US it has a fucking God-mandated responsibility to support them they'd be gone by now.

>>32356732
>Implying their guerrilla campaigns haven't been vastly more successful than their conventional confrontations
Obligatory reminder that the combined conventional forces of Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq got their asses handed to them in the span of SIX FUCKING DAYS. In contrast, ragtag Hamas forces have been able to hold out for a decade, whilst the First Intifada went on for almost SIX YEARS and even managed to get some concessions out of Israel.
>If you were a hamas/hezbollah commander, how would achieve this?
I'd rather not speculate on the most effective means of conducting terrorism.
>If you were an IDF commander, how would you eradicate the guerrillas?
I wish I knew.

>>32356732
How about suicidal guerrilla sniper attacks?

>sniper plans to kill politician
>picks the best position disregarding his personal life (doesn't care about escape)
>takes the shot,kills the target and shoots himself in the brain

And basically do that again and again (on extremely important people like prime ministers, Presidents, etc) until something changes

>>32357023
You need to be competent to be a sniper and on the same token competent people tend to not be terrorists or suicidal.

>he thinks an insurgency can win a decisive military victory

If it did, it wouldn't be an insurgency.

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>>32356551
> can arab insurgents
No.

> take out a good chunk of it's military
Depends on what you call a "a good chunk"; in 2006's Lebanon, 121 Israeli soldiers, out of estimate 300k active + X3/X4 reservist personal, were killed. To this day, many proclaim this as a total obliteration of the Israeli army.
And I think that this is a good representation: Hezbollah is perhaps the best trained, best equipped and best organized terrorist/whatever-you-want-to-call-them organization out there, with the ability and knowledge to switch and combine guerrilla and military fighting styles on the flow, that prepared for years for that exact war on the defensive side- killed 121 Israelis that came in unprepared and overly cocky. Take this for general scale- it might be some more, it might be less, but that’s the approximate success in killing Israeli soldiers.
To greatly outperform this, a game changing action, such as a surprise chem attack, must be taken (with it’s relevant repercussions).

> assassinate president politicians
Potentially, sure, why not. That’s the big advantage of insurgents: they can do whatever they want, however they want, and in as much of a surprise as they want. Simplest way will be to convince a local Israeli-Arab to do a suicide bombing on political targets attending some kind of a public event. Since the early 2000’s when the Israelis experienced a pandemic with suicide bombers (basically on a daily basis), their security services got the hang of it and were successful in preventing all bombing (iirc) in the past 15 years, so such operation will extremely hard to execute, but the potential is still there.

pt.1

>>32356551
>can arab insurgents manage

no

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>>32358005
> to the point where the jews can't keep the country anymore
This part actually gets covered by their use of the democratic module: the government is not
“the head of the sanke”, but a mere system that manages life- not controlls it.
Think of it this way: the assassination of the US president, along with half on the government officials, will case a major shock to the system, but the system itself will remain, and supplement operators for needed roles will be appointed shortly. On the other hand, take a look at many of the ME dictatorships/other forms of tyrannic rules and what happened to them during the “Arab Spring”- once a limited number of key figures were taken out, one way or another, the system either collapsed or replaced entirety with the “conquering” one.
This effect is even further enhanced in a country such as Israel, where the system is built on personal involvement and initiative, making it far more flexible and better resistant to such shock.
In other words: to take out the government, you have to take out the nation.
Something interesting that also should be noted, is the Israeli army and the consensus that it seems to hold in the Israeli society. It appears that in every war or some kind of a large scale operation, they have to deal with massive overflows of civilians attempting either trying to re-enlist as reservist, despite not being called at all, or otherwise support the army, with gear stores donating expensive clothing and other gear that outperforms any military one, or even chefs closing down restaurants to come and cook for soldiers in staging areas. In my personal opinion, with such mindset in what seems to be the general population, toppling the government is the easy part.

pt.2

>>32356846

I'll take alternate revisionist history for 100 Alex.

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>>32358017
> only using guerrilla warfare?
No, by design. Guerrilla is meant to frustrate an ATTACKER to a point where he gives up (and leaves). You can’t annoy a country into surreduring.

> If you were a hamas/hezbollah commander, how would achieve this?
No practical way. A meme answer will be to shout Allah Akbar as I nuke the Levant, but in reality, insurgency would be used as a tool to further the political political fighting. In fact, this is what the Israeli Palestinians do, and not to a small success.

> If you were an IDF commander, how would you eradicate the guerrillas?
Free to do whatever I want? Allow the insurgents to organize (similarly to Hezbollah)- forcing them out of their fluid and unattached form, collect all relevant intelligence, and start with air bombings for precision and quality targets, massive artillery in dense areas and wrapping it up with village-to-village-house-to-house cleaning. In this process, killing most of the population and displacing what remains to other countries (Syria, Lebanon, Jordan) in such way that they will always end up as minority (making it hard to organize).
Realistically? Nothing. When mass murder, semi-genocide and/or mass displacements aren’t even on the consideration list, the army only exists to maintain “the situation”, keeping under control, while a diplomatic solution is being sought out.

pt.3

>>32358017

Aren't the orthodox haredi settler population's somewhat of a demographic problem vs the previous generations since they don't want to joint the military yet crank out tons of kids and demand protection from Palestinians?

>>32356551
>If you were a hamas/hezbollah commander, how would achieve this?
I would try to slowly replace jew politicians with palestinian politicians.
Military wise, idk, harrass politicians into allowing my people to the government I guess.

>>32358107
I believe it's the orthodox sector, not the settlers one which is just too small and often is tied with strong nationalism.
It does seem to be a major topic, but I get the impression that it's not considered to be a huge problem. If anything, the fact that it suddenly became a more central topic, seems to resolve the problem before it begins, as the Israeli parliament, in the past few years, have passed several laws that either force or encourage orthodox to join the army (and thus encouraging them to become active members of the country, as the IDF is seen in Israel as an entry ticket in to the general society). Recent reports seem to indicate a constant rise in orthodox recruitment as resolute. Saying what numbers will win in the long run is a pure guesswork, that additionally will always ignore cultural influences and other human factors.

>>32356551
Yes. But where's the fun in that.
>Israel losing, goes hara kuri with nukes
>Arabs winning, loses main BBEG, no more motivation
>Israel lost: another 2000 years of oy vey its another shoah guilt trip
>Arabs lost: another 2000 years of oy vey its another shoah History channel

>>32356880
>Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq got their asses handed to them in the span of SIX FUCKING DAYS
yes, good goy, believe that narrative and nothing else

>>32356551

If the US didn't help, sure.

Why do you think Israel destabilizes the ME through the US?

>>32356880
No I did not imply that the guerrilla campaign was less successful than their conventional attempts (also the conventional attempts were not primarily Palestinian efforts, they were arab efforts as you mentioned). If anything I acknowledge that they're more successful as they always exist as a bargaining chip.

>>32357023
Sorry, I'm trying to take the question semi-seriously.

My point is specific, that the armed struggle cannot defeat the state of Israel. If the goal is a Palestinian state, it will not be accomplished by Hamas/PFLP/Hezbollah gunmen and rockets.

>>32358005
>Kill counts

I bet you think the US won vietnam, too.

>>32356551
>The Funtrain will not stop.
don't mind me, just responding to that pic there.

>>32356846
>daily reminder that the terrorists were originally jewish zealots who didn't want to share the land like the British planned

>>32359205
Reading comprehension is a bitch. Vietnam was many things, but the obliteration of the US military is not one of those things.

>>32359711
>no breaks on this train

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>>32356551
>Realistically, can arab insurgents manage to topple the israeli government and army? (by topple, i mean take out a good chunk of it's military and assassinate president politicians,to the point where the jews can't keep the country anymore)
Yes, if they swarm Israel with huge numbers while being backed some local powers, AND some nuclear power keeps the West in check.
>only using guerrilla warfare?
Nope. As >>32358049 said.

>If you were a hamas/hezbollah commander, how would achieve this?
Not. The kind of international strategic planning necessary to achieve it is way above the pay grade of Hamas and Hizbollah.

>>32356551
>If you were an IDF commander, how would you eradicate the guerrillas?
Get some western power to back me, then evict the muslim population of Palestine one village at the time. Throw them elsewhere. Then expand and secure the borders to fit. Repeat until Palestine is no more.

>>32362416
The ME tried to blanda up to the jews, twice. The first time the jews blew them the fuck out with zero outside help. The second time it started to stalemate till the jews told the US they would start nukeing (in the middle of the cold war, which would have been BAD), so the us got pseudo-blackmailed into sending them state of the art (at the time) stuff.

>>32358049
>>32358049
so war crimes and ethnic cleansing.

>>32359808
>being this retarded.

It was the Palestinians who didn't want to share it retard.

>>32362423
Yeah, kinda turns out that Arabs are really bad at fighting.

Did lead to the absurd deal that Israel gets military aid, but Egypt gets the same amount as long as everyone plays nice.

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>>32362416
>Yes, if they swarm Israel with huge numbers while being backed some local powers, AND some nuclear power keeps the West in check.
Been tried.

Faggot.

>>32362423

To be fair, Israel has caused America the least amount of problems in the ME. Having an at least partly pro-US stable power in the ME can't be bad.

>>32362428
What did you expect? The best and most efficient way is usually the straight forward, no bs- which, more often than not, falls under the modern western definitions of war crimes.
Since Israel perceives itself as a modern, western-like, country, and, as such, is restricted by Western laws of war- I also offered a more realistic scenario which always boils down to some kind of a diplomatic solution.
As for insurgents, well, they resort to war crimes, by Western definition, by default. That's part of the package deal that cook mess with insurgency.

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>>32362642
>fair

I don't think this word means what you think it means

>>32362672

I don't follow.

>>32356551
>If you were a hamas/hezbollah commander, how would achieve this?

Change my DNA and culture so I become something other than useless shitmonkey. Arabs and Persians cannot a country make, this is why they annihilated in warfare without colonial assistance.

>>32356603
This is why there's close to no Arabs in the IDF
Whew
That and they're fucking shit.

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>>32362642
>israel
>pro US

>USS liberty
>The motherfucking lavon affair
>All those israeli spies sent to US
>JDL blackmailing and threatening americans
>everything about AIPAC
>Shady israeli shit during 9/11
>sold US missiles to China

>>32362689
the jew is a parasite who was expelled from every host nation it ever victimized. The US is just his most recent host.

>>32356551
They've been trying for over 70 years, and not only have they failed, it's only been getting harder. The IDF is now a VERY big fish in a pond where the other organisms can't even swim.

>>32357023
The Israeli counterterror system is very intelligent, and the mission profile you outlined requires good equipment and skill building, so it's not nearly as simple as you think.
Every once in a while an attempted terrorist sniper gets apprehended.

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>>32362689
Here we go again.

>>32362756
>muh aid
he never said anything about aid in his post

and you didn't debunk what he said

>>32359808
>Daily reminder that you're an arab cuck

>>32362756
This sort of free money to non-white countries is ALWAYS a scam, these people are feeding parts of it back to the politicians
Or maybe providing live children for them

>>32362772
>spying
>"debunk"

Everyone spies on everyone else. It is normal for countries to do that, it is probably beneficial. If you look at any embassy, consulate or a diplomatic mission it is always full of intelligence workers.

This is how normal adult nations operate.

>>32362793
lavon affair and selling US missiles to china, debunk that.

>>32362593
Yes.

Now tell me how the Middle East has changed since.

>>32356551
I think it would be better for the palestinians to just accept jews if they can do that really or get the exsisting palestinains to vote for arab rule over jewish one cos the arabs out number jews

They can't. Their last good opportunity was in 1948, when the state was just created.
After that, even large conventional militaries failed at dismantling it.

That they are engaged in a conflict isn't an indication that they have any hope of winning it.

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>>32362713

>>32356846
>>start handing other colonies back to the locals
>>except for one
Ian Smith would like a word with you, anon.

>>32356551
The only hope for the Arabs is to win a culture war against the Israelis, thereby removing the both the political and financial support they receive from western nations. With that said Israel still has nukes, in a worse case scenario (for them) I could see them losing the West Bank and being forced into some concession where they have to share Jerusalem. But, It would be near impossible for a large scale conventional army to make headway into Israeli territory.

>>32362535
Can I come into your house, declare that the living room, two bedrooms, and all bathrooms are mine, build a wall to keep you out of them, and attack your cousin's wedding with an attack helicopter when you insist that the rooms of the house are in fact not mine?

Would you then be keen to sit down with me and discuss how to split up the rooms of your house to provide some for me?

Afterall, I have this book that says this land is really mine cause god gave it to me anyways, you're not even supposed to be in the house. I need a house cause I got beat up one time when I lived in a different house.

So now your house is mine, what are you racist?

>>32364141
>Can I come into your house, declare that the living room, two bedrooms, and all bathrooms are mine, build a wall to keep you out of them, and attack your cousin's wedding with an attack helicopter when you insist that the rooms of the house are in fact not mine?
>Would you then be keen to sit down with me and discuss how to split up the rooms of your house to provide some for me?
>Afterall, I have this book that says this land is really mine cause god gave it to me anyways, you're not even supposed to be in the house. I need a house cause I got beat up one time when I lived in a different house.
>So now your house is mine, what are you racist?
lol

>>32364141
Apt comparison, but I like jews more than muslims, so I don't care.

>>32362689
You do know the US was also caught for spying on their allies in a leak right?

>>32364335
Not all Palestinians are muslims, and I don't have a problem with Jews as a people.

ITT pol 2.0 discussing affairs they know nothing about except for what their chosen side's media tells them

I don't talk US elections because I will sound like a retard if I do. Extrapolate from this.

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>>32365188
>mentions /pol/
>gets hitler dubs

>>32365129
the US didn't harm their allies in false flag attacks (lavon affair)
and they don't sell their weapons to enemy states (israel sold US missiles to china)

>>32365220
>5188
M8

>>32362689
Kek.

>America doesn't spy on allies
>America has never been in an FF scenario
>JLD is the State of Israel
>Israeli firms don't give the US tech and systems
>Israel didn't do the West (France and UK) a favor during the SC

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>>32365322
Look, the point where you hurt your allies for your own interests (lavon affair and selling US weapons to china) is the point where they're considered your allies anymore

>>32356551
They wouldn't.Best they could do is a guerilla campaign.
Even then, Israel would give zero fucks about flattening the entire area.

>>32364141
so fucking savage