How would Japanese history have been affected if the Tokugawa

You can't fight a losing ear.

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>>3336464
>>3336472
Pretty much this.
Imperial forces had far to much momentum to really be defeated.
I think the very best outcome for the Tokugawa would have been a conditional surrender that kept the (now powerless) title of Shogun in place.

Regarding Japanese historical what-ifs.
I personally find the outcome of a successful Kenmu Restoration far more interesting.
Surly a centralised Japan would have been quite a regional power in the 1300s?

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That's a big what if, honestly. Barring something like outright French military support, I can't see any scenario where the Tokugawa or later the Northern Alliance manage to turn back the tide. The Satcho alliance and their allies had better morale, equipment, training, cooperation and imperial moral support. But if the Shogun somehow managed to stay in power, Japan's history would have been radically different, and Japan certainly wouldn't have reached it's regional power status in such a short time. Modernisation was already happening, and the shogunate's authorities were starting to see it as inevitable (remember that the Imperial Forces were a reactionary force, originally against modernisation and change), but I don't think they could have implemented as well as the imperial government later did. Not centralized enough, not powerful enough, not willing enough. Worst case scenario, they turn into China 2.0. Best case scenario, just kinda left alone, in French, maybe British or possibly Russian sphere of influence.

I still have some sympathy for them and their remnants in the Republic of Ezo, though. Imperial side just turned it's back on everything they fought for the second they won (promising Sonno Joi and then promptly asking for more European advisors, investments, etc) and then backstabbing it's supporters.