If Toyotomi had ever decided to BTFO the Spanish from Philippines,

>>1500661
>maybe with the backing of the Dutch, what would the success rate have been?


If he didn't decide to invade Korea and China at all, and focused only on the Philippines, then the Philippines would be speaking Japanese by now.

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38KB, 288x396px

>>1500661
0

1) Spanish Navy.
2) Indoctrinated Catholicized populace that view East Asians with suspicion given that they were mostly pirates at the time.
3) Ming China will help Spain out. For one thing there was an alliance of sorts between Spain and Ming China. For another, 16th Century Spain happens to be China's best customer: they paid in silver. During the Limahong Crisis in the Philippines, when a Chinese pirate lord landed with the intention of creating a Pirate Kingdom in the Philippines, China sent a "General Omoncon (a Spanish translation of a Chinese name)" to the Philippines to help the Spics out.
4) Building on #3, the Chinese navy.
5) Sheer geography. Not only is the Philippines far from Japan, but it is also Jungle as fuck. The Flips and Spics have mastered a sort of loose warfare there unknown to Japan. We're talking small armies of men deployed in loose formations specializing in ambuscades, skirmishes, and scouting. Short swords, muskets, and light armor was applied liberally along with easy to carry light artillery and riverboats. Usually with artillery plopped into riverboats, with said boats carried overland river to river. Such as the case during the Cagayanes pacification.

What Japan has in its favor is the fact that not all of Philippines belonged to Spain at a time. They were plenty of independent tribes still who could offer Japs a way in via alliances n shiet. But doesnt change the fact that Spanish Held Philippines and its Christianized tribal allies held the military power in those Islands. But that is pretty much it.

>>1500661
Zero.

Going by the Korean invasions the Japanese would seize cities with the expectation that the local populace would return to their lands and be content with Daimyo rule.

This obviously didn't happen and the Japanese suffered from attrition as a result.

>>1500748
>Going by the Korean invasions the Japanese would seize cities with the expectation that the local populace would return to their lands and be content with Daimyo rule.

They did until China stepped in.

Compared to Philippines which is not an ally of China and also mostly tribals. That's pretty different.

Phillipines are too far away, and Portuguese had the superior fleet. Japs knew this and didn't want to fuck with Western powers

Korea made sense because at they invaded they were in a civil war, and one side was sympathetic to Japan.

>>1500661
Tokugawa thought of doing this but after he saw how poor his armies did at Shimabara he closed the country

>>1500759
>Compared to Philippines which is not an ally of China
See >>1500695

It fucking was.
>http://quod.lib.umich.edu/e/eebo/A01864.0001.001/1:5.1.8?rgn=div3;view=fulltext
"The historie of the great and mightie kingdome of China, and the situation thereof togither with the great riches, huge citties, politike gouernement, and rare inuentions in the same."
-González de Mendoza, Juan, 1545-1618., Parke, Robert, fl. 1588., Loyola, Martín Ignacio de, d. 1606.
>CHAP. VIII. Omoncon captain of the king of China commeth to seeke Limahon, and doth meete with Spaniards.

Like I said earlier, Spain was an important customer of the Chinese and they were allies of a sort out of mutual benefit.

>>1500759
>Compared to Philippines which is not an ally of China and also mostly tribals. That's pretty different.
Korean guerrillas operated independently from the Joseon/Ming court.

Japanese ruled with the expectation that Korean peasants would submit and bypassed the scholar gentry.

What makes you think the Japanese would treat the Filipinos any differently?