Wired claims that programmers will soon become redundant as a

>Artificial intelligence wasn’t supposed to work this way. Until a few years ago, mainstream AI researchers assumed that to create intelligence, we just had to imbue a machine with the right logic. Write enough rules and eventually we’d create a system sophisticated enough to understand the world. They largely ignored, even vilified, early proponents of machine learning, who argued in favor of plying machines with data until they reached their own conclusions. For years computers weren’t powerful enough to really prove the merits of either approach, so the argument became a philosophical one. “Most of these debates were based on fixed beliefs about how the world had to be organized and how the brain worked,” says Sebastian Thrun, the former Stanford AI professor who created Google’s self-driving car. “Neural nets had no symbols or rules, just numbers. That alienated a lot of people.”

>The implications of an unparsable machine language aren’t just philosophical. For the past two decades, learning to code has been one of the surest routes to reliable employment—a fact not lost on all those parents enrolling their kids in after-school code academies. But a world run by neurally networked deep-learning machines requires a different workforce. Analysts have already started worrying about the impact of AI on the job market, as machines render old skills irrelevant. Programmers might soon get a taste of what that feels like themselves.

>“I was just having a conversation about that this morning,” says tech guru Tim O’Reilly when I ask him about this shift. “I was pointing out how different programming jobs would be by the time all these STEM-educated kids grow up.” Traditional coding won’t disappear completely—indeed, O’Reilly predicts that we’ll still need coders for a long time yet—but there will likely be less of it, and it will become a meta skill, a way of creating what Oren Etzioni, CEO of the Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence, calls the “scaffolding” within which machine learning can operate. Just as Newtonian physics wasn’t obviated by the discovery of quantum mechanics, code will remain a powerful, if incomplete, tool set to explore the world. But when it comes to powering specific functions, machine learning will do the bulk of the work for us.

this is not funny

>>56184905

Bullshit... r-right, anons?

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>>56184905

I'll give it 10 - 20 years before it starts to really happen, by then we can all shift into management roles and chill

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>>56185063

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So programmers are programming themselves out of the job?

You don't see managers managing themselves out of the job.

>>56185063

Closer to 50-100 years.

only the unproductive survive

>>56184905
>>“People don’t linearly write the programs,” Rubin says. “After a neural network learns how to do speech recognition, a programmer can’t go in and look at it and see how that happened. It’s just like your brain. You can’t cut your head off and see what you’re thinking.”
Yeah, this is bullshit

>>56185063
DARPA challenge shows us that computers can successfully mitigate and patch vulns already.

Reminder AI is a meme and not to do your masters+ in it

>>56184905
Machines have no imagination. New concepts require imagination. Good luck teaching a machine creativity, the concept alone is nearly impossible to define accurately.

>>56185245
Theres no reason to believe that we're all that far away from a true AI.
>>56185267
>in 20 years designers will become the next wave of "programmers" and take your jerbs

>>56184905
Once programs can freely program other programs, you'll be having Skynet.

This won't happen in a long fucking time, and someone would need to keep the programs from programming too much programs. Yes, machines will take over a lot of jobs. However it's hard for them to take over the jobs that keep them working.

>>56184905
Forget AI. Pajeet and Rajesh working out of their mud huts in bangladesh for 3 cents an hour will put you out of a job long before AI will.

>>56185336
And until we have a true AI people need to stay the fuck away from the field because there is nothing in it

>>56185422

>Don't go in to AI as a career field until AI is a viable career

Wut?

>>56185267
The article isnt saying that all programmers will be replaced, just that the major bulk of programming work will be done by neural networks. Deep learning + Top programers > a whole class of pleb programmers. This is whats going to happen in all industries. Only the best will be employed, and they will use Machine learning to do things that would of normally taken hundreds of specialists to do. Productivity rates will be insane.

>>56185476
Yes, exactly

>>56185480
I see. That does make more sense.

>>56185218

for full replacement of programmers that is more likely, for simple tasks I think what they are saying has some merit.

Even the idea of modular programming has been thrown around, downloading packages and linking them together instead of doing any real programming.

>>56185235
has little to do with intelligence

>>56185508 #
For example, Hotz used deep learning to create a semi decent self driving car. He did something, that took hundreds of top engineers to do, all by himself, because of deep learning
http://www.bloomberg.com/features/2015-george-hotz-self-driving-car/

It's ok anon, I'm scared of the future too...

>falling for the STEM meme

Looks like STEAM is gonna have a bright, yet disproportionate, future!
;^)

>>56185621
What's the A

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>Wired.com
Don't make me say it.

programmers won't go away. you just won't need as many and it'll be more IT focused

>>56185557
He hasn't done shit.
He thinks he can build a better self-driving car, but he hasn't actually made one.

>>56185567
It does, you think they are developing that for a giggle ?
It's DARPA

>>56185206
Programmers will program managers out of their jobs.

Machine "learning" is actually machine "guessing based on probability" and the first few billion dollar class action lawsuits caused by companies implementing AI "programmers" without proper QA will kill this meme pretty quickly.

>programmers automate themselves tools to help them to do their jobs better
>this results in programmers becoming unemployed
How come this hasn't been the case given the invention of IDEs, delinters, frameworks and APIs, and high level languages? How come programmers have only gotten more productive and yet demand has never been higher?

>>56185644
Itll be the new Law degree. Just like Law, most people who will enter a Programming course wont be working for the big silicon valley companies once Deep Learning becomes the new norm.. Itll be a generalist degree, used to improve your prospects, but you wont be assured a Job in your respective field.

>>56185630
art

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If the AI can re-program it's self better than a Human can then we reach singularity and we don't need jobs.

Idiots go home please.

>>56185630
Apologetics

>>56185701
what?
symbolic execution is great, but it has NOTHING to do with intelligence

>>56184905

>chai tea slurpping hipster fags becoming obsolete

One can only dream.

>>56185480
neural networks are pretty good at solving a lot of problems,
but its not magic that solves everything.

its not going to be able to replace most programming jobs for a long long time.

>>56185927 #
We will see. We dont know the full,potential of Deep learning yet, this like the days before the PC. We are only scratching the surface. So far it has exceeded our expectations. I mean many in the industry thought we were a decade away from a neural network beating a pro Go player. We are living in interesting times

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>>56185906

The industry is getting highly over-saturated (especially with the trend for people to pick it up accelerating because of ever-increasing use of computers, moreover, half of humanity rapidly modernizing).

A reaction to that system to advance from quantity to quality is expected, so something like this will happen >>56185480 .

All that is going to happen is the ineffective entry-level programmers will get filtered and replaced by the mid-tier deep learning algorithms. Programming will become accessible to literally everyone as they will be able to write complex programs by dictating simple English words to their computer, so that applies another filter by over-saturating entry-level programming.

But still, there will be a top 1% of quality programmers who will not only keep their jobs, but also see their income multiply.

>tl;dr - if you're into programming, start improving your skills asap

>>56186506
projections like these are always inaccurate as fuck
proof: look at history

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By the time AIs replace programmers it will also replace doctors, architects, translators, ect.

You're all also making the grave mistake assuming AIs will not become self aware and fucking murder you in your sleep.

Get ready for the tech singularity that will happen around ~2050, shit's about to get real.

>>56186549
There are a lot of modelling attempts in our history that failed pathetically, but I don't really think that this is an inaccurate prediction in any way.

The problem is that the increase of programmers (which is obviously going to happen at accelerating rates) doesn't cause a parallel increase in demand for products produced by them - more programmers doesn't mean an equally-increasing demand for software, so that causes an over-supply, which in turn causes the consumers to be quite picky, filtering the quantity into quality.

Now, that was only following the current trend of more and more programmers. I want you to imagine an easily copy-pasteable Deep Learning algorithm added to the already over-saturated field.

Of course, it's not a pure AI able to invent on its own yet, so there must be people on the top to handle that task, and the task of improving/debugging it. Everything below it, however, will become cheaply replaceable, and entry to mid-level programming will be equalized to flipping burgers.

Whatever happens, even if such an algorithm somehow is never invented, the fact that China and India are modernizing, followed by the entire Africa, and that most young people there tend to seek the easy exit out of poverty - programming, should be enough of a proof to you that the status quo in the industry is impossible to be retained and a major change is about to happen.

>>56184905
Build your own neural net and beat the competition

>>56186506
>>56186737
So the idea is to git gud and become a 10xer or die trying?

Waifubots when

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Does this kill the programmer?
Fucking Troi can make her own program.

>>56186942
Never, waifubots promote violence against women anon.

>>56186919
Pretty much. Unless you enjoy competing with an ever-increasing amount of unemployed programmers for shit wage at a shit company that can't afford to acquire/run a deep learning algorithm to compete with the rest

>>56185183
>thats your solution for everything

>>56185206
5 years from now you will only need a manager to dictate orders to neural net and a product of ultimate quality will be constructed in matter of minutes.

Come on.. There always this hyperbolic bullshit. Books were considered dangerous and when computers came they thought paper is redundant in the office. But now there's even more fucking paper involved.

This is just hyperbolic marketing bullshit to fuel their own startup.

In the future, people who can actually read and find information are valuable. People who can actually code are valuable. Only thing what is becoming rare is the ability to do clean and efficient code as new generations are used to working with bloatware and start to build their own bloatware applications with readymade bloatware libraries built on top of bloatware operating systems...

>>56184905
Relax you don't have to worry either way, by the time this happens many jobs will have already been lost due to automation. At this point your country; if smart, will have transitioned to a guaranteed income system. If your country was stupid you will probably already have been killed during one of many mass riots.

>>56185233
How?

>>56186506
>The industry is getting highly over-saturated (especially with the trend for people to pick it up accelerating because of ever-increasing use of computers, moreover, half of humanity rapidly modernizing).
It's not. Areas are getting saturated. There are literally hundreds of thousands of unfilled jobs at any given time in the US because they're a little bit out of the way. Do you think anyone wants to live in fucking Pennsylvania or Michigan? No, not really, especially not youths who come out of college, yet there are thousands upon thousands of jobs in a few cities alone in those states that go unfilled for companies that are raring to grow and grab any half-competent programmer as soon as possible. Anyone who thinks the industry is filled out or is going to be filled out anytime soon is ignorant and living in a geographic bubble or they're lying for their own benefit.

>>56185037
Yes, Andy Rubin is just creating sensationalism to market his company. Truth is we are still far from understanding how our brain works.

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>>56184905
Sure it will. Wait till deep learning can finally recognise a shopfront without me weak-validating it's fucking guesses

>>56184905
I believe it. The progress with convolutional RNN's and language vectorization is happening in leaps and bounds. It's not hard to imagine a neural net iteratively decomposing some written word inputs into a sequence of machine instructions. I give it four years before first practical implementation.

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>>56187413
I miss old simpsons

>>56184905
> In the same way that you don’t need to know HTML to build a website these days, you eventually won’t need a PhD to tap into the insane power of deep learning.
> In the same way that you don’t need to know HTML to build a website these days
> no HTML
> website
in the same way, indeed

>>56188565
>implying wordpress hasn't put most freelance webdev shops out of business
When will /g/'s denialism end?

>>56188581
Wordpress is ok if you want a certain type of website. Some of those small shops moved to making WP templates, because (believe it or not) tolling doesn't fall out of the sky.

If platforms like these were supposed to put shops out of business, how did the Ruby on Rails boom happen? How did the recent Node.js boom happen? The industry moved to a platform that makes it easy moving from the front-end to the back-end or becoming full-stack (because you only need well one language). This happened because, obviously, there is now a smaller need for webdevs all-together, because they were all killed by plugged-out WP sites.

Yes anon, you have a point, to a certain degree I agree with you, but that's like saying Unity / GameMaker means you can makes games without touching code.

>>56184905
>The cocreator of the Android operating system
sorry, what did he help create? a mixture of linux and mobile java?

>>56188713
>Yes anon, you have a point, to a certain degree I agree with you, but that's like saying Unity / GameMaker means you can makes games without touching code
And how have job prospects for game developers fared since the 1990's when those tools originally didn't exist? Game devs are well paid and super in demand, right?

>>56184905
This is basically what I teach my students.

0. Learn skills to compete in current market
1. Save up money
2. Invest in ROBOSTOX

Programmers should hedge their bets.

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>>56188849
>implying there won't be widespread civil unrest and revolts until the "work or starve" model is ended
>implying we won't be living in a glorious anarcho-socialist utopia

>>56188774
Nice source, anon. What (I think happened) is that since those tools have emerged, more people are into making games, indie games are an example of this. I doubt your triple A cawadoodies felt a speed bump.

Like with the invention of the automated loom, a shitload of jobs were lost, but those people would move on from engaging in menial labour (or at least, that kind of labour) and the entry to the textile industry was lowered as you needed less money to start up a manufactory.

Ultimately, I think tools like WordPress, Drupal, etc / Unity, Gamemaker, etc / the upcoming virtual programmer are good things for lowering the bracket to entry for businesses and relieving people of monkey-work. As far as doing complex/niche things... bank websites are not done in WP, messaging systems are not based on one drag and drop framework, console-specific gpu optimisation is still done at the assembly level and the virtual programmer, more than probably will not code the "next hotness"

>>56184905
Reminder to license your shithub projects as GPL, so when the skynet codescraper pulls your code, you can participate in the class-action lawsuit.

>>56184905
>normies ACTUALLY think this is how deep learning works

>>56188908
>illiterste armchair experts think that all NN's are simple feed-forward handwriting recognizers

>>56188869

>implying the riots wont result in a tech-powered anarcho capitalist revolution
>implying poor can afford robot warriors
>implying I wont get to colonize space like some cyborg cowboy

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>>56188965

Mfw all the multinational companies declare independence, and I get share-holder citizenship rights.

>>56188900

Reminder that you wont be able to read skynet sourcecode. Besides, it will modt likely encrypt all its repositories

>>56188581
This is the problem with you autistic STEM's

Wordpress makes ugly and generic websites, it will be looked down like geocities in 5 years

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Please hurry. Automating the automaters will usher in the golden age of the Neetocracy.

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>>56188908
Normie's? Sounds like you are, anyone who has done serious research into and worked with these algorithms knows what they are capable of. And when I say they know what they are capable of, I really mean they know that we are barely scratching the surface. There will not be many fields that ai does not replace, it is literally superhuman. To think that it can't do something because "ppfffttt, only humans can program/plan/create art/etc" is either burying your head in the sand, or actually being ignorant. There is nothing special about our brain, it is hardware, meaning it can be recreated artificially. Things are picking up pace in the field, and much faster than I think anyone realizes.

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>>56185336
>>56185422
>>56185810
People are really dumb about AI and its really not anyone's fault considering how tech shit and buzzwords gets sold as shit its not.

"real ai" is a no true scottsman argument. It doesn't have to look or act like humans or have feelings

>>56185888
This is the core of the "no real AI" bullshit.

Here is AI in a nutshell, rename is whatever "X learning" buzzword people will pay you to call it before ignoring everything your actually talking about.

>built algorithm
>feed massive data
>receive useful decisions

If you are expecting some magically human with perfect memory and autism to start talking out your speakers you are missing the point.

>build algorithm
>feed massive data on X problem
>X problem is solved
Now we apply this shit to A. software vulnerabilities, B. speeding up/fixing code based on a super high level language that will anticipate the "coder" being dumb and having no idea about the low level. C. Network traffic to find "abnormal" shit and kill skiddies D. the FBI having the ability to find in a couple clicks who is the move deviant in the country and arrest them by their search history to confiscate their computer for forensics so they can keep their numbers high.

Add in that people will still be really dumb about "No true AI" as some beefed up version of a calculator turns into speaking plain English into a microphone and the computer spitting out physics answers.

There will be "no true AI" while intelligent engineers and programmers need to know less and less to accomplish their jobs. That knowing less and less will massively increase companies hiring people who "fit their culture" or meet diversity hire standards instead of people who can get the job done. Getting the job done will become easier and "skills" will become less relevant.

Provided we don't simply cut out everyone except the C/upper management level and let everyone else starve.

>>56184905
>http://www.wired.com/2016/05/the-end-of-code/
>pls disable adblocker
0/10 didnt read