I created an automated strategy for futures trading with a 46%

>>992040

More info

Max Drawdown: $300
Average Time In Market: 10 Minutes
Average Loss: $100
Average Win: $310.

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Nice, impressive.

I don't believe you.

>>992040
le chicken proofs.

>>992040
>46% win rate at 1:3 risk reward
Er how is that a profitable strategy?

46x3>100

so its profitable

>>992040
I absolutely guarantee that's not going to consistently work live. It will lose the entire account, no question.

No firm is going to want that when they can do stuff like this:
http://www.tradingsystemlab.com/files/TSLbrief3.htm

OP, the only way to make money on your system is to set up a website selling them to noobs who don't know any better.

Why would you sell your system and not exploit it for all its worth

>>992254

(46x3)-(54x1)=Profit

>>992570

>why would you breathe and not inhale oxygen?

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>>992390
efficient market theory trashed bretty hard kek

>>992040
Which broker and programming language do you use?

>>993503

I would also like to know this

>>992390
what is that? it says it needs a plugin but doesn't tell me what, and I think I have everything standard

>>993565
A genetic algorithm designing trading systems. Idk what player it is, sorry.

>>992390
mind blown.

>>993503

NinjaTrader
C#

>>993485
Markets are efficient because people are constantly taking advantage of trading opportunities.

>>994063
Markets are inefficient because people are emotional, don't read balance sheets/income statements, and will get repeatedly slaughtered en mass. See also every market correction ever.

>>994353

Over 80% of trading volume comes from mechanical systems. Fear and greed only controls some markets these days, such as crud eoil.

>>994359
20% is plenty enough for the market to be driven by humans.

Think about it. Financial statements are only released quarterly. More frequently than that are press releases and news articles, which are generally only able to be interpreted by humans, with the exception of perhaps insider trades.

The mechanical trades will for the most part be reactionary to the humans' ebb-and-flow, and vice versa.

>>992040
>>992041
How much capital are you trading with to get these theoretical results, are you making $1500 a month from $1 in capital or $1million? Also what's your yearly rate of return? What website are you using to backtest and how did you come up for the ideas for your strategy, I'm not asking about the strategy itself but what was your thought process when you were trying to create a strategy and how long did it take?

>>994442

Can trade with $5K or $5M, it's theoretical. Futures isn't the same as stocks. I usually create new demo accounts every few months ranging from $5K to $15K since that's realistically what I would begin trading with. Then I decide how much I want to risk per trade from that, then find a time frame that suits that sort of risk, and then look for patterns.

I backtest in NinjaTrader.

Been trading demo as a hobby for almost 3 years now. Just looked at different time frames and indicators, and tried to spot patterns, then backtested them.

>>994528
What's your annual rate of return?

>>994565

About $16,500/contract traded per year.

>>992040
>How do I sell my system to goyims?

you don't, you trade it

*if* you have a profitable trading system then the best way to make money from it is trading it

use your own capital or get some funding (this will likely involve putting up some of your own capital on a first loss basis)

>>994567
different futures contracts costs different amounts so saying $16500 per contract is kind of vague. What's your annual ROI as a percent?

>>994578

You have not implied anything. You need to know capital, capital allocated per contract, commissions, margin your broker charges, etc. What your asking is vague, and it's impossible to answer due to the nature of futures.

>>992390
if it worked well they'd not need nor want to sell it

>>992390
>>994581

in fact it is essentially just an exercise in curve fitting

>>994580
>About $16,500/contract traded per year.
That doesn't tell me if your trading a $500 dollar contract and making $1500 a month off of it or a $5000 contract and making $1500 a month off of it. Saying $16500 per contract traded per year is vague. All I was asking is what is your rate of return.
>You need to know capital, capital allocated per contract, commissions, margin your broker charges, etc. What your asking is vague, and it's impossible to answer due to the nature of futures.
It's not impossible to answer what your rate of return is. It's actually very easy. You start trading/backtesting with a certain amount of money whether it's $5,000 or $500,000 then you look at how much money you have at the end of the year. If you started with say $1000 and ended with $2000 then your rate of return was 100%. What I'm asking isn't vague it's a very direct and very easy question to answer and it is very possible to answer due to the nature of futures.

> only backtested 1 year

You can buy the full stock history on a DVD, going back to whenever electronic trading started.

>>994586

You can allocate $10K of capital per contract or $100K, and the ROR would be completely different.

The contract specifically is /CL, which is $1,000 intraday margin with my Broker. Let's assume I have $100,000 and allocate $10,000 per contract. So I would be trading 10 contracts. That's $15,000 a month, or $180,000 a year. 180% return. Or you could have $1,000,000 and allocate 1 contract per $1,000,000. That would be a 1.8% return. So yes, your question is vague because these variables do matter in determining the ROR.

>>994594
>What's your annual rate of return?
I don't know how I can get much clearer than that.
Do you not understand that the amount of leverage your using is a part of your strategy? I asked you what is your annual rate of return that's probably the most basic and straightforward question you can ask someone about a trading strategy. With forex and futures you can choose how much leverage you want or how much capital you allocate to each contract/lot that's part of the strategy. You do understand that if you have two strategies that are identical except one of them uses 10x more leverage than the other that they are separate strategies not the same one right? When I asked you
>What's your annual rate of return?
Which is not in any way vague or impossible to answer, a response that would have made sense would be "well for the strategy that I was talking about in my first post it makes x% a year, however I also have other strategies that use different amounts of leverage and their returns are........." Also in your example you talk about allocating 10k for 1 $1000 contract assuming that you are trading these intraday and not overnight then you can't do that. The most that you can put towards a single 1k contract is 1k, you might be able to put up less depending on the margin requirements but you can't allocate 10k for a single 1k contract you can however use 10k to buy 10 $1000 contracts.

>>994620
*Overnight has different margin requirements than intraday but since you specifically said intraday in your post:
>The contract specifically is /CL, which is $1,000 intraday margin with my Broker
then I'm assuming that you aren't holding any overnight positions so for your strategy the maximum amount that you can put up is 1k per contract

>>994620
>you can however use 10k to buy 10 $1000 contracts

You have no idea how futures work. I would love to see you try that. Where's the capital for slippage, unrealized losses, and commissions? Enjoy your instant margin call. Any CFA would recommend you have at least 10x capital for the cost of the margin. So yes, allocating $10K per $1K contract is acceptable, although it's pretty aggressive.

>>994629
In your example you talked about allocating 10k per contract when you were talking about margin which sounds like you meant that you can put 10k towards buying a single 1k contract which you can't do. You should try being more clear about what you mean. Also you don't seem to understand that if you have 2 strategies that are the same except that they use different amounts of leverage they are in fact different strategies not the same one so it's actually very easy and not impossible to answer what your rate of return is. When I was talking about using 10k to buy 10 $1000 contracts I wasn't endorsing it as a strategy or saying it was a good idea I was using a very simple example so my point got across because I was trying to explain something not endorse a trading strategy.

>>994636

Okay then. I understand more clearly now. I personally would have $10,000 per contract traded, because my stops are 10 ticks ($100) which is 1% risk. My average win was $310 rounded. At 1:3 risk reward, I would only need a 30% win rate to have 0% risk of ruin. My backtest results were 46%. Haven't curve fitted yet. That would be my strategy.

>>994629
From looking at your previous posts you don't seem to know what you're talking about so when you said that you could possibly allocate 10k towards a 1k contract and the fact that you were talking about margin right before you came off as thinking that you didn't understand margin. Another example of this is when I tried talking about how much capital you were trading with to make that $1500 a month:
Me: >How much capital are you trading with to get these theoretical results
>Can trade with $5K or $5M, it's theoretical(You)
I didn't ask you does this strategy work with 5k or 5M I asked you what theoretical amount of money did you have when you ran your backtest to get $1500 a month

>>994643
Literally none of this matters if your quote feeds are fast enough to compete with HFT firms. There are algos out there that will pick up your algo, track it, and eat it for lunch leaving you with nothing but wasted time and hurt feelings. You're about to start playing one game of checkers against 100 computers programmed to play chess.

>>994436
>reactionary
This.

>>994584
>exercise in curve fitting
This.

I've written/read several algorithms, mostly using R and the aboves hit the nail on the head.

>>994703
You only need to be faster than HFT firms if you are also an HFT firm. The futures market is also less about microstructure than equities. If some NEET is simply crossing the spread with a few contracts he's not going to worry about HFTs.