What do we know with reasonable certainty about the near future

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What do we know with reasonable certainty about the near future of crypto (next 5 years)?

Firstly, that there is no way in hell that the majority of coins are going to succeed.

I don't just mean the shitcoins languishing in the 100s, the vast majority of the top 100 coins will not survive. So much of this market is based on speculating without fixed use cases.

Even in the case of coins where the use case is clear, there are huge question marks over whether that application will actually be worth any money, or will generate substantial returns for coin holders. I would cite Golem and Sia as examples where there is a good idea with a strong technical foundation, but massive questions over whether the tokens will be worth anything.

Secondly, consider the fact that token creation platforms (Eth, WAVES, NEM, NEO, NXT) will make it easier and easier to create specialised tokens, without the need to code a completely new blockchain.

This suggests that many of the "single use" cryptocurrencies will be supplanted by Dapps and tokens created on whichever platforms come to dominate.

So what does that mean for your long term holds?

I think the lesson to take is that you should be hedging across token creation platforms, and steering clear of single use coins unless there is a *very clear* use case with a strong justification for increased value.

tl;dr Sell you shoes, buy HoboNickels